What is a second round draft pick worth?

[Topo]

We have just traded a second round draft pick for an over-the-hill loudmouth who used to be good. It is unclear whether he also is taking up a Senior International spot on our roster.

With last year's numbers (and factoring in even more decline), the most we can probably expect is 10-12 appearances with a couple starts if all of our other fowards (Quaranta, Stewart, Quintanilla, Curtis, Eskandarian, et al) are hurt or something.

I looked to see what second round draft picks have been worth in the past to try to figure if we got rooked in coughing up a second rounder.

1996 Innaugural: Shawn Medved
1996 College: No pick
1996 Supplemental: No pick
1997 College: Tom Presthus
1997 Supplemental: Gerson Etcheverry
1998 College: Carey Talley
1998 Supplemental: No pick
1999 College: Keith Beach
1999 Supplemental: No pick
2000: Steven Armstrong
2001: Bryan Namoff
2002: Mike McGinty
2003:

This is a mixed bag of players. If you look only at their rookie seasons, Namoff, Talley, and Presthus would probably be most used (I think Presthus played in 1998).

Medved was in the Innaugural draft and almost everybody from that draft played, so it isn't really good to consider since it was a team-building draft, not team-supplementing draft.

Armstrong dicked around for a while and didn't sign that year. Beach dicked around and disappeared. Gerson Etcheverry is best forgotten (I think he did play for the Metrostars for a while.) McGinty was a backup who never played all last season because Rimando played every minute.

I can't tell what one can expect from a second round draft pick. I don't know if 10 appearances, 3 starts, and a few goals or assists is about what a second rounder is worth. But, usually a second round draft pick carries with it some upside in that you expect these players to grow and to have gotten them early in their career.

I note that Medved, G. Etcheverry, and Beach (and possibly McGinty) are not in MLS. The rest are still playing.

Of course, we're all assuming that our natural second round pick in the 2004 draft will be the 20th pick (barring expansion), so it might not be as good as this list. :)

I don't know if or how badly we got taken in this one. Maybe we got a good deal. I just didn't want to waste my looking up all those draft picks, so I posted it.

[GoDC]

I am not worried about it. MLS picks move around several times before the draft and some deal could give it back to us before that time comes.

I think of Hristo as a 20 minute a game player when we are tied at home or behind anywhere. Someone who can come in and give the team a lift and score a big goal. he does not really need to train to play 90 minutes a game so hopefully he can stay healthy. He can help the young guys in practice. I sure as hell prefer having him come into a game late at forward as opposed to Zambrano or even Eddie Pope!!!

[DigitalTron]

Ironically, past drafts aren't really a good measuring stick. With the increased talent pool, improved scouting, and tremendous refining of young talent that the USSF has been doing, we're looking at an entirely different ball game. Plus, consolidating the college and supplemental drafts shifts a lot more talent into the second round.

Frankly, if you're looking at past drafts the earliest you can realistically compare to next season's draft would be the 2000 draft. While the 2004 draft will likely not be as deep as the 2003 draft, it will probably be better than either the 2000, 2001 and 2002 drafts simply because of the quality of young talent available today.

Since the U-17 residency program started the USSF has taken the best young talents and is accellerating their development at warp speed. While it's still only 30 players a year, it has really made a difference. Now elite players are starting as 17 year old freshmen at major colleges and becoming collegiate All-Americans as 18 year old sophmores. Some are so good they can skip college all together. None of this was really an option prior to the 2000 draft.

The success of the residency program has translated into stellar performance internationally at the youth level, and led to interest from various major European clubs. In fact, this very residency helped launch Jonathon Spector into a contract offer from Manchester United (likely to be finalized this summer). Arsenal just added Danny Karbassiyoon to their youth side that already includes American Frankie Simek. So already the talent level is far superior to what it was in the 1990's.

It's difficult to say what a 2nd rounder will be worth next season, but one thing is certain, all of our P-40 players (Eskandarian, David Stokes and Brian Carroll) will no longer be roster-protected. Likewise, it is unlikely that we would keep any other developmental players (Woodstock? Swann?) on a developmental contract for longer than a year, because they just don't make enough money that way. So, United will have 6 open roster spots for unprotected players. Clearly a 2nd round choice would be expected to fill one of those spots.

But, with Convey, Santino, Eliseo, Alegria, Rimando, Eskandarian, Stokes, Carroll, Warren and possibly Woodstock and/or Swann, United will have plenty of youth next year, even without any P-40 players. But a roster of 24 is infinitely more encouraging than a roster of 18, particularly when 1/3 of the roster has a significant history of injuries.

-Tron