Individual Match Odds...

[mfw13]

Here's my opinion, for what its worth...

Italy vs. Ghana

Italy win - 70%
Draw - 20%
Ghana win - 10%

USA vs. Czech. Rep.

USA win - 30%
draw - 30%
Czech win - 40%

Italy vs. USA

Italy win - 50%
draw - 30%
USA win - 20%

Czech. Rep. vs Ghana

Czech win - 50%
draw - 30%
Ghana win - 20%

Italy vs. Czech. Rep.

Italy win - 40%
draw - 30%
Czech win - 30%

USA vs. Ghana

USA win - 60%
Draw - 20%
Ghana win - 20%

The reason I give Ghana more of a chance against the Czechs than against the USA, is because the US matches up with Ghana better in terms of athleticism and fitness due to the Czechs having three players in their 30's in their midfield. Otherwise, I view Italy as being slightly better than the Czechs, and the Czechs slightly better than the USA, but with the overall difference between the three sides being relatively small.

[NoSix]

Based purely on past results, here's how I would handicap the matches:

Italy vs. Ghana

Italy win - 67%
Draw - 22%
Ghana win - 10%

USA vs. Czech. Rep.

USA win - 23%
draw - 26%
Czech win - 51%

Italy vs. USA

Italy win - 43%
draw - 33%
USA win - 24%

Czech. Rep. vs Ghana

Czech win - 78%
draw - 14%
Ghana win - 8%

Italy vs. Czech. Rep.

Italy win - 34%
draw - 27%
Czech win - 39%

USA vs. Ghana

USA win - 55%
Draw - 28%
Ghana win - 17%

[NoSix]

Also, based on the odds in my previous post, the expected points become:

Czech Republic: 1.79+2.48+1.44=5.71
Italy: 2.23+1.62+1.29=5.14
USA: 0.95+1.05+1.93=3.93
Ghana: 0.52+0.38+0.79=1.69

But then again, I guess that's why they play the matches... ;)

[NoSix]

Again, based on the odds in my original post, another way to look to look at the data is in terms of the probability of each team earning a certain number of points:


pts> 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
CZE 16% 21% 22% 9% 17% 9% 3% 2% 1%
ITA 10% 19% 18% 11% 21% 11% 5% 4% 1%
USA 3% 9% 13% 9% 24% 18% 9% 11% 4%
GHA 0% 1% 3% 1% 10% 17% 9% 29% 29%


If, for simplicity, it is assumed that the probabiliity of advancing is 100% with 5 points or more and 50% with 4 points, then the approximate chances of advancing out of the group for each team can be calculated as follows:


CZE 77%
ITA 69%
USA 46%
GHA 10%

[appoo]

http://www.willhill.com/iibs/en/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=WC1105043

Italy 1.9
Czech 2.62
USA 7.5
Ghana 12

so why is this a group of Death? check out the other 3rd place teams odds of advancing:

Ecuador 9
Paraguay 8
Serbia 8
Iran 13
Australia 13
Tunisia 7.5 (this is a a group of mediocracy. since any of the top 3 in USA's group would be picked to win 1st or 2nd)

[grandinquisitor28]

I haven't done, and won't do match odds for the Ghana games because I just have no clue what to expect with them. Their African qualifying group was a piece of cake, and they got the G.O.D. in the African Nations Cup and got stomped without the assistance of some of their better players.

In terms of the rest of the games I see:

USA Vs Czech Republic:

US Win: 30%
Czech Win: 40%
Tie 30%

Italy Vs USA

US Win: 20%
Italy Win: 45%
Tie: 35%

Italy Vs Czech Republic (if both need 3 points to assure advancing):

Italy Win: 55%
Czech Win: 30%
Tie: 15%

[scarshins]

http://www.willhill.com/iibs/en/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=WC1105043

Italy 1.9
Czech 2.62
USA 7.5
Ghana 12

You sure that isn't odds of winning the group? You said advancing. Doesn't make sense odds-wise for advancing.

[grandinquisitor28]

You sure that isn't odds of winning the group? You said advancing. Doesn't make sense odds-wise for advancing.

That is the odds of winning the group, or at least what I saw recently in reference to winning the group odds rather than advancement odds.

[OGx3]

NoSix, it's off-topic, but hey I'm taking my first trip to Phoenix in years tomorrow through Tuesday ... so am I buying you a beverage Monday night as we discuss the prospects of the Nats in Germany? If I bring my Poisson model analyzing all 8 WC groups, would that qualify this post as on-topic? Stayin' at some hotel called the Hilton Suites ...

Else, I'll see you in Cyberspace...
~OGx3

[NoSix]

NoSix, it's off-topic, but hey I'm taking my first trip to Phoenix in years tomorrow through Tuesday ... so am I buying you a beverage Monday night as we discuss the prospects of the Nats in Germany? If I bring my Poisson model analyzing all 8 WC groups, would that qualify this post as on-topic? Stayin' at some hotel called the Hilton Suites ...

~OGx3

Is that the Hilton Suites on Thomas Road in Phoenix? I'll be in meetings until 7 PM, but can meet you any convenient time after that. :)

[OGx3]

Is that the Hilton Suites on Thomas Road in Phoenix? I'll be in meetings until 7 PM, but can meet you any convenient time after that. :)

The very same.
7 or later should work out great.

PM'ing you my contact info didn't work, so I repped you instead with the info. Not a bad outcome!

[NoSix]

PM'ing you my contact info didn't work, so I repped you instead with the info. Not a bad outcome!

Gotcha - check your rep!

[USA_McBride20]

One thing you can't calculate into odds is heart. Nobody gave the USA much of a chance to advance last year, or even win thier first game, and the same is happening again. The USA plays with heart and pride, and don't be surprised to see a few upsets.

[kofi86]

hm this is not meant as an insult, but many of these odds are ridiculous.
ghana 8% against czech?!
if you wanted to bet on this game, according to your odd ghana would have an odd of 12,5 against czech and win for czech would be about 1,28.
just to give you something to compare: the odd of portsmouth beating chelsea at stamford bridge is 11,0 (@happybet;you can trust happybet's estimations, since there is money involved).
so you really think it is more likely to happen that portsmouth will beat chelsea at stamford bridge then ghana beating czech at wc??

[mfw13]

If you look back to my original post which started the thread, I gave Ghana a 20% chance of beating the Czechs, which amount to 5:1 odds.

[Fevernova99]

http://www.willhill.com/iibs/en/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=WC1105043

Italy 1.9
Czech 2.62
USA 7.5
Ghana 12

so why is this a group of Death? check out the other 3rd place teams odds of advancing:

Ecuador 9
Paraguay 8
Serbia 8
Iran 13
Australia 13
Tunisia 7.5 (this is a a group of mediocracy. since any of the top 3 in USA's group would be picked to win 1st or 2nd)

Those are the odds of winning the group as BET365 has almost the same odds as those you listed.

Dont get what you mean by so why is this a group of death comment tho

[mfw13]

Its because the odds of the third ranked team are much lower than in other groups, thus implying that this group has a much stronger "third-best" team than other groups.

[Karimi_Ching]

Those are the odds of winning the group as BET365 has almost the same odds as those you listed.

Dont get what you mean by so why is this a group of death comment tho

Those odds are terrible. lol. They're suppose to help people make money?

[mfw13]

No....their supposed to help the betting companies make money, and you to lose it.

[Fevernova99]

Its because the odds of the third ranked team are much lower than in other groups, thus implying that this group has a much stronger "third-best" team than other groups.

Really?

Paraguay 8
Serbia 8
Tunisia 7.5

3 other groups have similar odds so hes trying to say Ukr Spain Saudi and Tun is the same strength as usa ita cze ghana? Doesnt make much sense to me... no one calls that group the group of death....

And what do u mean by third ranked - wc groups are picked by region - besides the seeds and serbia there is no 'ranking' this isnt the euros