Your Optimist/Pessimism Index

[kinstlinger]

OK, so it's a rainy afternoon here in MD... not sure what kind of topic I wanted to start, so I started thinking about things in the roll-up to WC06 that make me feel optimistic/pessimistic about the US chances.

Optimism Index:
First-timers M&C, Boca, Dolo and Gooch are getting good minutes overseas
That we'll be taken lightly
Continued strong performances by BMB
The cockiness that DMB and LandyCakes play with
Confidence after WC02
Potential injuries limiting some Czechs and Azurri

Pessimism Index:
Too many key players injury-prone
Age of some players
Endurance factor
Untested defense
Midfield questions
Unknown Ghana team

[sidefootsitter]

Pessimism -

1990-overwhelmed
1994- a huge step up
1998- sort of overwhelmed
2,002- a step up
2,006 - another overwhelmed?

FWIW, I predicted 17 pts out of the Hex, which was on the downside by 5.

Now, I think they'll get 3, maybe 4 pts because the factors above will break 50/50% but that's not good enough for this group.

To counter this, one could say that the U-20s and the U-17s were in similarly tough groups but all qualified for the knockout stage.

[Minnman]

It's all related to our team health. If the planets align and we have a healthy, in form, Reyna, Mastroeni, Cherundolo, Johnson, O'Brien (since we're talking fantasy here) and all the other guys who've come down with various injuries of late - or who've been nagged with injuries throughout their careers - then count me in as being extremely optimistic.

A healthy US team with several weeks of training and a few quality pre-WC warm-up matches under its belt will be very tough to beat. It'll also have a nice mix of WC vets and new talent. And it'll go into each game expecting to win.

But pluck Reyna, O'Brien and a few other guys out of this line-up and our lack of depth, especially in the attack, is quickly exposed. We become a far more one-dimensional team. If the boo-boos continue for the US then, yeah, I'll be a lot more pessimistic about our chances.

Ask me again in May.