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View Full Version : A Two-Pronged Strategy For Acquiring New Players


ursula
15 Jan 2006, 01:06 PM
Our beloved team is at an interesting crossroads.

-On the one hand the team has a pretty good talent base in most areas. The main exceptions are 1) wingers, 2) possibly a striker, and 3) an outside back. To make a real run at the title this year we need better performance out of those three areas and that probably means moving new players in (and old players out). By new players I mean players who can make an immediate impact. No teenagers.

-On the other hand in a year to three years, we will probably see the last of some major players on the team. Moreno, Gomez, probably Adu, and maybe Quaranta. Notice that these are offensive players. It would make sense to be looking now at developing talent that could step in at some of those positions in a couple of years. That means teenagers or youngish draftees.

If both of these are true then the team should concentrate on the Ga players in the draft unless there's a real steal out there who could make an impact and go foreign for the impact players we need for now. To do that it would be good to acquire more of those partial allocations that are sitting out there to help our cap position.

Maybe that seems obvious but I think drafting a player like Van Sicklin goes against the strategy above. In fact I would look to trade the lower round picks for those partial allocations that are out there if the team doesn't see anyone who could either make an immediate impact or will develop into one in a year or two. The league is too physical and at such a higher level than college or youth ranks for most kids to handle. Taking a flyer on someone like Tim Merritt is a waste of time. Let another team take a flyer on him while we get something we can use.

Note that I realize that most lower round draft picks will be given developmental contracts. Because of that you might say why not take a flyer on several guys in the last couple of rounds? The answer to that is, briefly, Bobby Boswell. In other words there will be players undrafted who can match anything this draft has to offer and it would do well for the team to have a real clue on what they are acquiring before they do that acquiring.

Another way to look at the draft is that the players who get consideration there are not at all the sum of players coming from college. There are the Boswells out there who just don't get looked at closely enough. Thus the guys who are rated lower for the draft are just plain not good enough for MLS and they would probably be undrafted if the scouting in MLS were really good. The exceptions prove this and they come in two types. First the Josh Gros. We took a flyer on him and he proved a "steal". That in the history of the draft you can count on one hand the lower round picks who are successful proves that the lower round picks are much less than crap shoot: they are practically worthless. Unless a team identifies in advance a college player who for some reason no one else pays attention too, like Chris Rolfe. There are even fewer Rolfes lurking in the nether regions of the draft than Groses.

But enough teams think that they should draft as best they can in the lower rounds that our team can sell those picks for something useful.

I think back to that Hall of Fame game last year and the various players in a DCU shirt who plainly didn't belong. Having those guys playing and practicing all the time with truly worthy developmental projects slows down the development for the good guys. And there were a couple of guys, Stephen deRoux for instance (who was undrafted of course) who look promising with enough time. It's important that the team have as high a quality on it's reserve team so the players all get used to the high standard of MLS. (That the DCU reserves won their title last year to me shows how clueless MLS teams are in stocking their reserve teams.)

So I hope the team puts a fair amount of post-draft time into inviting undrafted players to camp (and through the summer) while also looking closely overseas for what we need now.

DigitalTron
15 Jan 2006, 02:56 PM
Nice analysis Skip. I think each season the front office and coaching staff need to ask "how much needs to be done to win MLS Cup?" If it's only a tweak, such as trading a player, or offloading salary to bring someone in, then IMHO, the team should make that move. The caveat being that they shouldn't sacrafice the future by trading for a stop-gap. That only pays when the Draft is predictable, which it isn't in MLS.

Most teams have enough talent to contend, the difference between the best teams in MLS (Revolution, Earthquakes) and the worst teams (Chivas, Real) doesn't boil down to talent as much as it does coaching. So, with the right mix of players and a good coaching staff, any team can compete relatively quickly. The problem the expansion teams had was that they didn't study enough at how successful teams in MLS actually succeed. The win-through-possession thing doesn't cut it, neither does funnel-everything-to-the-wings. MLS is full of tenacious ball-winners more along the lines of Serie A than La Liga. Once those expansion teams figure these things out, they'll be a lot more successful.

DC United has the talent, I firmly believe that. IMHO, Nowak did a great job of adjusting the team when we lost Nelsen--a huge loss. We maintained a very good defense, especially considering our 3 man back line was often under-staffed, injured, inexperienced, and in a general state of flux. Kudos to Nowak and the Staff there. But, IMHO, Boswell was our best center back, and should have manned that spot. Similarly, it wasn't realistic to expect Erpen to jump right in mid-season and marshall the back line. IMHO, Erpen should have been played at left back to utilize his attacking skills more, and shore up one of our weak areas, left back. If the coaching staff determines that he's the best center back in the offseason, so be it, but it was too much to ask late in the season.

DC United has 2 layers of players, veteran and youth, and we're strong in each area. But, we lack the intermediate phase right now, and it wouldn't be prudent to deal the youth to fill that void, so I think the best case scenario would be to draft for the future and gamble on greatness. If the draft picks fail, that's no different than adding someone who ultimately becomes a journeyman--they'll be hard pressed to keep a roster spot anyway.

Gomez has a few more good years for sure, but Moreno is nearing the time in his career where Nowak will have to start lowering his minutes to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Freddy can absorb those minutes. The team has, does, and probably will need a target forward ... and Esky isn't the prototype target forward even when healthy and in form. That's really the only hole our lineup has at the moment. In Boswell, Namoff and Erpen we have 3 very good back liners, with Prideaux needing to step up or become a backup. We're not too deep in the back, but the quality is there, so no need to mortgage the future for a squad player. So, that leaves midfield. With Carroll and Olsen as the starters and Simms as cover for both, we're solid at Dmid. Between Gomez, Moreno and Freddy we're covered at Amid. Gros, Santino, Freddy and Erpen can all play the wing if needed. When we lost Dema we lost one quality player to cover for all of the midfield positions.

But honestly, it's hard to get quality depth in MLS because of the salary cap ... and it's even harder to keep that depth. I'd suggest using the Draft to find players who might become real contributors, even if that means bypassing some solid prospects for some of the more gamblish types.

Some teams are 1 or 2 players away from having the talent to compete, but DC United already has the talent it needs. Other than a target forward, there's no need for another starter, so keep the draft choices and Allocation. Heck, if we can't find a good use for the Allocation, try and trade it for a future first round draft pick. Barring injuries, our team has the talent to compete with anyone in MLS. That will not always be the case, so hold onto your resources until you need em.

-Digital

CHICO13
15 Jan 2006, 02:58 PM
Great post Skip. Another interesting aspect to all of this is how this upcoming season will play out as far as Nowaks future with the team is concerned. Will he stay on for another year? Leave after this season or sign a long term contract. This will have a dirrect bearing on all the points you raised above.

Continuity in the coaching staff will play a big role in developing young talent. Any new coach that comes in is immediately under pressure to win and win right away.

scruggs45
15 Jan 2006, 04:57 PM
Great post Skip. Another interesting aspect to all of this is how this upcoming season will play out as far as Nowaks future with the team is concerned. Will he stay on for another year? Leave after this season or sign a long term contract.

i wouldnt be too worried about losing nowak...i think his substituition patterns, or lack thereof, were very responsible for a few losses last year

im not impressed with his in game coaching at all

CHICO13
15 Jan 2006, 05:03 PM
i wouldnt be too worried about losing nowak...i think his substituition patterns, or lack thereof, were very responsible for a few losses last year

im not impressed with his in game coaching at all
I think Nowak is still learning how to be a head coach. Last year was a big learning experience for him. This is the year for him to show us if he can adapt or stay rigid within his scheme.

Cweedchop
15 Jan 2006, 10:28 PM
I really don't have anything to add except to say that it's really nice to see Digital Tron back on the boards.

DT has always been a good voice of reason (yet another great DC poster) and analyst.

Section106
16 Jan 2006, 10:59 AM
I really don't have anything to add except to say that it's really nice to see Digital Tron back on the boards.

DT has always been a good voice of reason (yet another great DC poster) and analyst.


I agree. It was posters like you and DT that kept me here and caused me to join BS in my lurking days. Thanks guys!

doctorjim
16 Jan 2006, 03:20 PM
I agree that DC should not necessarily limit itself to the US players included in the MLS combine. Based on the Boswell and DeRoux experiences it appears that the scouting that goes into the MLS combine leaves something to be desired.

I don't think this means, however, that DC should necessarily trade away its lower draft picks. If there's no one left worth drafting and another team wants DC's pick, sure, go ahead and trade it. But if someone looks worth a longer look, I would draft him.

Nevertheless, using all one's picks doesn't preclude looking for undrafted players. DC doesn't have to keep all the players it drafts. (In fact, many players drafted don't actually end up playing for MLS teams -- I would say as many as a third or half those drafted.)

For my money, the best source of improvement for MLS teams remains young US players -- whether from the draft or some other route. MLS is well-positioned to sign most US players; US players offer a great deal of talent, both real and potential, and US players fit nicely within MLS budgets. Given what MLS teams can spend, most of the foreign players available are simply not worth the time and trouble. Of course, that doens't mean that you ignore foreign players entirely. Some come cheap -- our brothers in the Caribbean and Central America for example and there's always the chance that a bargain may be available even in improbable places -- Ronnie O'Brien for example.

Because young US players are the best source for improvement, I think MLS teams have to be thinking long term most of the time. Unless you can lure back some American who has gone overseas, there are not many players available to MLS teams that can make a really significant impact immediately (and don't cost a fortune). Again not an absolute rule -- perhaps Filomeno is worth it, but I have my doubts.

I suspect the bottom line decision here for DC management is where it spends its scouting effort -- in the US or overseas. I really don't know how DC identifies potential players. I hope it is more organized than it looks from the outside. But if the team doesn have some sort of organized effort, I think focusing on US players would be the best bet. Based on the MLS combine, no one seems to be doing a good job in this area; the MLS team that figures out a better approach will have a huge advantage on everyone else.

DigitalTron
17 Jan 2006, 12:45 AM
I really don't have anything to add except to say that it's really nice to see Digital Tron back on the boards.

DT has always been a good voice of reason (yet another great DC poster) and analyst.

Thanks for the kind words Cweedchop and Section106, I really appreciate that. :)

-Digital