Project 2010 Update

[voros]

It's always good to have an eye on the future, so despite the impending excitement this summer, it's worth continuing to monitor how the potential pool for 2010 is shaping up. We have new guys at Bradenton, a just completed MLS season with two FIFA youth tournaments in the can, so now's as good a time as any.

The distribution of birth years is based on the birth years from the 2002 WC. Ages distributed as follows:

Goalkeepers
1971-1974: 1
1975-1978: 3
1979-1982: 3
1983-1986: 3
1987-1990: 1

Outfielders
1973-1974: 2
1975-1976: 7
1977-1978: 10
1979-1980: 12
1981-1982: 14
1983-1984: 14
1985-1986: 12
1987-1988: 10
1989-1990: 7
1991-1992: 2

Age listed is the player's age on June 1, 2010. Positions of players have been shifted a little so as to get as many of the players I wanted on the list.

Goalkeepers
1. Tim Howard, 31, Manchester United (England)
2. Brad Guzan, 25, CD Chivas USA
3. Joe Cannon, 35, Colorado Rapids
4. Steve Cronin, 27, Los Angeles Galaxy
5. Marcus Hahnemann, 37, Reading (England)
6. Adin Brown, 32, Aalesund (Norway)
7. Zach Wells, 29, Metrostars
9. Nick Rimando, 30, DC United
10. Josh Lambo, 19, Bradenton Academy

Left Back
1. John O'Brien, 32, ADO Den Haag (Netherlands)
2. Todd Dunivant, 29, Los Angeles Galaxy
3. Heath Pearce, 25, Nordsjaelland (Denmark)
4. Jose Burciaga Jr., 28, Kansas City Wizards
5. Zak Whitbread, 26, Liverpool (England)
6. Tim Ward, 23, Columbus Crew
7. Hunter Freeman, 25, Colorado Rapids
8. Danny Karbassiyoon, 26, Burnley (England)
9. Wade Barrett, 33, Houston
10. Ritchie Kotschau, 34, Columbus Crew

Right Back
1. Jonathan Spector, 24, Manchester United (England)
2. Steve Cherundolo, 31, Hannover 96 (Germany)
3. Marvell Wynne Jr., 24, UCLA (College)
4. Chris Albright, 31, Los Angeles Galaxy
5. Frankie Simek, 25, Sheffield Wednesday (England)
6. Nathan Sturgis, 22, MLS
7. Robbie Russell, 30, Rosenborg (Norway)
8. Jeremy Hall, 21, Bradenton Academy
9. Frankie Hejduk, 35, Columbus Crew
10. Chris Wingert, 28, Columbus Crew

Center Back
1. Oguchi Onyewu, 28, Standard Liege (Belgium)
2. Carlos Bocanegra, 31, Fulham (England)
3. Cory Gibbs, 30, Feyenoord (Netherlands)
4. Chad Marshall, 25, Columbus Crew
5. Danny Califf, 30, AaB (Denmark)
6. Nat Borchers, 29, Colorado Rapids
7. Michael Parkhurst, 26, New England Revolution
8. Jay DeMerit, 30, Watford (England)
9. Ofori Sarkodie, 21, Bradenton Academy
10. Nick Garcia, 31, Kansas City Wizards
11. Patrick Ianni, 25, UCLA (College)
12. Jimmy Conrad, 33, Kansas City Wizards
13. Mykell Bates, 20, Bradenton Academy
14. Eddie Robinson, 31, Houston
15. Gregg Berhalter, 36, Energie Cottbus (Germany)

Left Mid
1. DaMarcus Beasley, 28, PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)
2. Bobby Convey, 27, Reading (England)
3. Freddy Adu, 20, DC United
4. Justin Mapp, 25, Chicago Fire
5. Santino Quaranta, 25, DC United
6. Brad Davis, 28, Houston
7. Benny Feilhaber, 25, Hamburger (Germany)
8. Arturo Alvarez, 24, FC Dallas
9. Will John, 24, Kansas City Wizards
10. Sasha Victorine, 31, Kansas City Wizards

Right Mid
1. Eddie Gaven, 23, Metrostars
2. Pat Noonan, 29, New England Revolution
3. Danny Szetela, 22, Colombus Crew
4. Brian Mullan, 32, Houston
5. Chris Klein, 34, Kansas City Wizards
6. Brian West, 31, Fredrikstad (Norway)
7. Quavas Kirk, 22, Los Angeles Galaxy
8. Temi Molinar, 19, Bradenton Academy
9. Davy Arnaud, 29, Kansas City Wizards
10. Axel Levry, 20, Bradenton Academy

Defensive Mid
1. Clint Dempsey, 27, New England Revolution
2. Ricardo Clark, 27, Houston
3. Pablo Mastroeni, 33, Colorado Rapids
4. Brian Carroll, 28, DC United
5. Ben Olsen, 33, DC United
6. Richard Mulrooney, 33, FC Dallas
7. Mike Magee, 25, Metrostars
8. Pete Vagenas, 32, Los Angeles Galaxy
9. Nicholas Besagno, 21, Real Salt Lake
10. Michael Bradley, 22, Metrostars

Attacking and Holding Mid
1. Landon Donovan, 28, Los Angeles Galaxy
2. Kyle Martino, 29, Columbus Crew
3. Ned Grabavoy, 26, Los Angeles Galaxy
4. Clint Mathis, 33, Real Salt Lake
5. David Arvizu, 22, Bradenton Academy
6. Sacha Kljestan, 24, MLS
7. Kyle Nakazawa, 22, Bradenton Academy
8. Lee Nguyen, 23, Dallas Texans (High School)
9. Jospeh Sorrentino, 20, Bradenton Academy
10. Daniel Kelly, 21, Bradenton Academy

Forward
1. Eddie Johnson, 26, FC Dallas
2. Taylor Twellman, 30, New England Revolution
3. Conor Casey, 28, FSV Mainz (Germany)
4. Chris Rolfe, 27, Chicago Fire
5. Herculez Gomes, 28, Los Angeles Galaxy
6. Josh Wolff, 33, Kansas City Wizards
7. Edson Buddle, 29, Columbus Crew
8. Brian Ching, 32, Houston
9. Preston Zimmerman, 21, Hamburger (Germany)
10. Alecko Eskandarian, 27, DC United
11. Josmer Altidore, 20, MLS
12. Nate Jaqua, 28, Chicago Fire
13. Chad Barrett, 25, Chicago Fire
14. Abdus Ibrahim, 18, Bradenton Academy
15. Bryan Dominguez, 19, Bradenton Academy
I left Rossi off the list, mostly just because I was short on room for forwards and attacking midfielders. The last two players listed are two of the three 1991s who have joined Bradenton this semester. They were three when the World Cup came to this country, and they were 5 when MLS started.

Good news: I went from having a very difficult time coming up with enough players in the early years, to having to leave off somewhat deserving players right about starting at 1982. Not co-incidentally that was the first year Bradenton started. I'm not sure the difference is Bradenton as much as it is a more serious attitude toward player development all-around being undertaken at about that time.

For field players anyway, the 1975-1978 birthyears represent a real dead spot in our player development. That's more of an issue in 2006 than it will be in 2010.

[Sanguine]

For field players anyway, the 1975-1978 birthyears represent a real dead spot in our player development. That's more of an issue in 2006 than it will be in 2010.

probably had something to do with the fact that the NASL folded right when these guys were 5-8 years old - the ages when most kids start playing youth sports.

[cpwilson80]

As always, great work.

We need to find a special coaching position for Eric Wynalda, where his sole responsibility is to teach kids how to play striker. Any ideas as to why we have a surplus of attacking-mid/forward types, but few true strikers?

Even today, we have Donovan, Adu, Dempsey, Noonan, Quaranta who fit the mold of attacking players who are best playing just behind the front line. Here's a wild guess that I'm not even sure I believe: could it be that younger athletes with the size, skill and speed needed for an international striker gravitate toward another sport that offers a chance at more money?

This isn't the end of the word...Italy traditionally produces more Baggio types (Zola, Del Piero, Totti, etc.) than Vieri types (though Toni and Gilardino may have changed that for 2006.) However, let's just say, I'll be hoping for a few more guys to make an Eddie Johnson-like impression during the next cycle.

[russ]

Just a note that Borchers and Nguyen are signing in Europe next week.

And we still won't have a right mid!!!

Great work as usual voros.

[sanariot]

Great work voros!

A couple of notes:

Ianni and Wynne are entering the Super Draft

I'm not too sure about Mike Magee becoming a defensive mid

I think Chris Seitz from Maryland has to be in the mix for keeper in 2010

[Adam Zebrowski]

excellent stuff from voros!!

[voros]

Great work voros!

A couple of notes:

Ianni and Wynne are entering the Super Draft

I'm not too sure about Mike Magee becoming a defensive mid
This is one of the perks of doing this is I get to insert my opinion in from time to time. I think if Magee is going to be a regular national teamer, that's the position he'll do it at. He's looked not bad when he's played that type of role so far.

[mschofield]

Great job.
Is a 19 year old (who is 15 now) possible to project as a succesful keeper? And, unless we bottom out at the position, wouldn't he be irrelevant in 2010, in any case. 2014, at 23, would be pushing it. 2018 would be his first real chance, and 2022, 2026 are possibilities).
Question on Szetela I thought he was more of a central player? I don't see him very often over here, though, so does he play on the right for columbus?

[PSsoccer123]

Voros is a good man.

[Cweedchop]

Great work Voros.

Bobby Boswell gets left off that list?

[voros]

Great job.
Is a 19 year old (who is 15 now) possible to project as a succesful keeper? And, unless we bottom out at the position, wouldn't he be irrelevant in 2010, in any case. 2014, at 23, would be pushing it. 2018 would be his first real chance, and 2022, 2026 are possibilities).
Question on Szetela I thought he was more of a central player? I don't see him very often over here, though, so does he play on the right for columbus?
Szetela has played on the right, and with our lack of options at right mid, I felt shifting him over there got better overall players on the list.

The young keeper is on there only because keepers that age can and do make World Cup rosters (they usually don't play though). The reality is that I was pretty underwhelmed by the US keeper at the U17s, I thought he was smallish and not praticularly agile, so I punted and put the new Bradenton kid in there, a late year 90. Generally to get noticed with a late November birthday at that age is a positive.

Also he's a new name and I tend to defer to those for information purposes.

[voros]

Great work Voros.

Bobby Boswell gets left off that list?
It's a strong position for us and also a very strong age range as well. Ryan Cochrane, Danny O'Rourke and Drew Moor all also got left off with O'Rourke and Moor playing positions with significantly less depth than Boswell. Basically it was him or Parkhurst, and Parkhurst is a year younger and probably had a more impressive rookie season (and resume beforehand). I can't see choosing him over Parkhurst.

As I mentioned, if you were born in 1977 or 1978, you had a tough time not making the list. If you were born in 1983 or 1984, you had serious competition.

Of course there's plenty of time for him to make a move up the list. First thing he'll need to do is make sure to nail down the starting spot next year with DC. If I remember correctly, DC was going with Namoff, Erpen and Prideaux at the back at the end of the year.

[ClarkC]

A lot of good work here, but I note that Hunter Freeman is a right-footed player who starred at right back for the University of Virginia, sending right-footed crosses in. I have seen him fill in at left back for the U-20s, but that was not because it was really his position They just needed him there. Can't see him at left back in a World Cup.

[ursula]

Excellent list voros.

[ugaaccountant]

As I mentioned, if you were born in 1977 or 1978, you had a tough time not making the list. If you were born in 1983 or 1984, you had serious competition.


What's the point of putting on guys from before 80 who already have played themselves off the team, like say Clint Mathis. He's already been on the downhill for years and is further down the current AM depth chart than you have him for 4 years from now.

It seems you should at least base the depth chart off their quality and potential not off some kind of age based system. Why is Adu listed as a third left mid option and Gaven & Twellman as starters? People can switch to other roles on the field easier than leaving a 16 year old playing on the national team off the next projected team. Also shouldn't Bradley get some credit for being a starter in MLS and getting interest overseas?

It's great to track these things I just don't understand how to interpret it now so I'd be very confused 4 years from now.

[metx]

Excellent list voros.


Thanks Voros, great Job....

[voros]

What's the point of putting on guys from before 80 who already have played themselves off the team, like say Clint Mathis. He's already been on the downhill for years and is further down the current AM depth chart than you have him for 4 years from now.

It seems you should at least base the depth chart off their quality and potential not off some kind of age based system. Why is Adu listed as a third left mid option and Gaven & Twellman as starters?
Because I wanted to fit everybody on the list who belongs on the list, and things are crowded at A-mid and Forward, particularly at the younger ages. Adu is listed as a left mid because he helps me fit everybody on there by being a left mid. Gaven & Twellman aren't listed as starters, there listed as #1 and #2 at the positions I listed them at. We're weak at right mid and I moved a lot of forwards around in order to get more forwards on the list (which for the younger players is wholly appropriate). Don't read much into it other than they're on the list and in better position than Quavas Kirk or Alecko Eskandarian. IOW, if you forced me to pick a starting 11 or a 23 man roster, I wouldn't necessarily choose evenly from each position.

I mean I could shortcut it by going: GK, D, M, F but I think that's less informative. The idea is simply to get a solid 100 players on the list representing the standard range of ages for a World Cup team (using 2002 as a model).

I am considering (after the 2006 WC) to use my statistical skills to come up with a mathematical prediction system based on the previous three World Cup selections, and maybe then I could throw more weight behind the depth chart. In short, consider appearing on the list to be more important than whatever arbitrary rank and position I stick the player at.

[Rocket]

GK looks like a potential weakness in 2010.

Perhaps Friedel or Keller will play one last time?

[macheath]

Because I wanted to fit everybody on the list who belongs on the list, and things are crowded at A-mid and Forward, particularly at the younger ages. Adu is listed as a left mid because he helps me fit everybody on there by being a left mid. Gaven & Twellman aren't listed as starters, there listed as #1 and #2 at the positions I listed them at. We're weak at right mid and I moved a lot of forwards around in order to get more forwards on the list (which for the younger players is wholly appropriate). Don't read much into it other than they're on the list and in better position than Quavas Kirk or Alecko Eskandarian. IOW, if you forced me to pick a starting 11 or a 23 man roster, I wouldn't necessarily choose evenly from each position.

I mean I could shortcut it by going: GK, D, M, F but I think that's less informative. The idea is simply to get a solid 100 players on the list representing the standard range of ages for a World Cup team (using 2002 as a model).

I am considering (after the 2006 WC) to use my statistical skills to come up with a mathematical prediction system based on the previous three World Cup selections, and maybe then I could throw more weight behind the depth chart. In short, consider appearing on the list to be more important than whatever arbitrary rank and position I stick the player at.

Thanks for this. You left off Quentin Westberg on the keepers list, and Bobby Boswell (currently in camp) at center back. Some kibitizing about positions where you' ve listed players (Whitbread plays center back, etc.), but a great effort.

[Austin_Anderson]

"Hiddink foremost views the versatile American as a future right wing option, and he will periodically train with the first team." - Hiddink on Lee Nguyen

http://yanks-abroad.com/content.php?mode=news&id=001424

I know this is uber speculative but the possibility is at least intriguing.... it would great if our two USMNT wings were on the same club, which is at least feasible now. obviously, this assumes so much that it will likely never happen, but it's fun to think about.