DC United -Superdraft Player Pool Analysis and Speculation

[Zman Gunner]

With the Generation Adidas list released by MLS tonight and the Superdraft just a little over a week away plus the fact that DC actually has a 1st round pick (7th overall) this year, it is time to begin speculating as to who we want to see DC select with that pick. I listed some of names showing up on some mock drafts and subsequently the candidates to likely be on DC’s short list. Feel free to weigh in with who you want to see DC draft and why – here is some info on the top players.

Players Likely to be Picked Before DC’s 1st Round Pick (7th Overall)
* Marvell Wynne – D – UCLA (Gen Ad): U20 speedy right back likely to be #1 pick, whether he is picked by the Goats or another team (i.e. Crew) trades for the top pick

* Nathan Sturgis – D – Clemson (Gen Ad): Another U20 defender – more of a center-back but also a possible outside back. Seems to parallel many of the traits of Michael Parkhurst. Could be RSL-bound to help shore up that leaky back line..

* Jacob Peterson – F – Indiana (Gen Ad): Yet another U20 player – speedy Hoosier forward. Could be Crew-bound if they do not trade up to get Wynne or may go to Metros at pick #5 if available as they really lack any forward depth.

* Sasha Kljestan – M – Seton Hall (Gen Ad): Still another U20 – tall, playmaker - could be moved to the flanks in MLS. Could be KC-bound based on age of their midfield.

Players Who Could Be Available at DC’s 1st Round Pick (7th Overall)
* Jason Garey – F – Maryland: Terp goal poacher and Hermann Trophy winner could be available at pick #7 if the usual Gen Adidas premium applies to first 6 overall picks. Seems as if some folks are not sold that he will excel in making the jump from college to MLS - on the other hand, could be Twellman-like (not dominating in anything in particular but just scores a bunch of goals)

* Josmer Altidore – F – U17 (Gen Ad): Big (5’10”) 16 year old with big upside - very talented but would be a bit of a project for a while

* Willie Sims – F – Cal State Northbridge (Gen Ad): Small (5’8”) Guatemalan with green card made 1st Team All-America this year

* Kei Kamara – F – Cal State Dominguez Hills (Gen Ad): Least-publicized of the Gen Ad class, the big (6’2”) Sierra Leone native (a bigger version of Abdul Thompson Conteh???) with green card had a recent trial in Scotland with Dumferline

*Aaron King – F – North Carolina State: Big (6’2” – 175 lbs.) could be a poor man’s Eddie Johnson

* Dax McCarty – M – North Carolina (Gen Ad): Small playmaker only played 2 years as a Tar Heel.

* Brian Plotkin – M – Indiana: Talented, attacking midfielder who sometimes plays on the flank

* Medhi Ballouchy – M – Santa Clara: Talented playmaker from Morocco likely hurt by not being Gen Ad and lack of U.S. citizen/green card status

* Jed Zayner – D – Indiana (Gen Ad): 5’11” Hoosier sweeper probably capable of playing anywhere in the backline.

* Patrick Ianni – D – UCLA (Gen Ad): U20 6’1” center-back can also play midfield

* Blake Wagner – D – U17 (Gen Ad): Young 5’9” left-sided player also able to play midfielder

For good info on the upcoming Superdraft prospects, I recommend Buzz Carrick’s site (www.3rddegree.net) – it is as close to Mel Kiper-type scouting that is done on MLS.

Bottom line from DC perspective
* Dallas picks at #6 - it is hard to say just who they will draft (could take a forward for cover for Eddie Johnson, could use an attacking or left-sided midfielder)
* Should be some decent forwards on the Board when DC picks - it could be real interesting in Philly if Garey is still on the board at pick #7 and the supporters' group start chanting for him
* Unless Kljestan somehow surprisingly falls to #7, Plotkin is the only other midfielder who may be possible for DC (as the other possible midfielders play attacking midfielder just like Gomez and Adu) if they are sold on Plotkin's ability to play on the flanks
* Zayner probably is the best defender option in terms of the players likely to be available at DC's pick

[JoeW]

I'd love to see DCU end up with Jason Garey. But I don't see it happening. There are just too many teams in MLS who don't go for underage (ie: teenage) talent in the Superdraft. KC, NE, LA (though granted that was under Schmid) and Dallas are all teams that have never or rarely chosen a P-40 (now GenA) player. And they don't seem to have the interest or infrastructure to develop them. Chivas--I can't predict b/c of Bradley (but their need to improve is NOW--but then he's gotten P-40 players so contribute in spots almost immediately) and Ellinger who knows and loves the U-17/U-20 talent but also knows he's got to improve his side with immediate contributors. Then add Columbus (who now has Schmid and it's P-40 players--Szetela and Buddle--seem to have had very tortured paths)....and it means that probably half the teams in the league are going to draft someone who can help their team right now--not in 2 or 3 years. I don't see Garey dropping below Dallas who doesn't seem to like to take teenagers, Clarke is on the hot seat, they need cover for EJ (who should miss much of the summer is the planets are aligned), they've had success with Maryland kids. So I can't see him dropping to our spot I'm afraid.

Plus, if I'm right that some teams shy away from teenage talent, then you have Wynne and Garey probably as the top two American citizens (again, SI considerations). Of course, the Combine will influence this a lot (as some kids will shine and others won't). But I think Garey goes quickly.

As I said, I'd love to get Garey. Local kid, a good feel for the goal, I think there's a lot to like there.

I'd read one article (ESPN?) that talked about how this is a deep draft but not a lot of stars. In otherwords, many picks who, in time, will become players. But not a lot of guys like Shalrie Joseph and Pat Noonan who will step in right away and play and impress. Wynne is probably the exception not b/c I think he's going to become great but b/c he's at a position where it's not as difficult to play a rookie (as opposed to striker or A-mid), he's a great athlete (and physical tools can offset mental or technical limits at times).

I'm no draft or talent expert but I suspect this is a draft that will likely have some arguing it just confirms Nowak can't draft b/c we may very well end up with two GenA players who spend most of their season on the reserve side with some PT as they progress. In short, kids with a future but it may not be now.

[ursula]

If I had a clue about what United is looking at overseas or by trade then I could say something, but right now I could see us picking almost any position in this draft. That aside, I tend to think flank player which really complicates things as so many central players in college get moved to the wings in MLS. But I bet that somewhere United will pick a player who they think could be better than Van Sicklen is.

EDIT- The other thing I wonder about is what Joe brought up above in relation to Dallas and getting cover for Eddie Johnson being gone much of the season. I'm sure most MLS coaches are very interesting in what Arena is gonna do with their players and will try somehow to shore up any holes that might be created by having a player go to Germany. So with that what if some of our players go to germany? What holes are created?

Quaranta- winger, forward. Tino getting selected IMO creates the biggest holes since those holes are already there.
Carroll & Olsen- Even if both get selected by Arena (doubtful) then with Simms and Kuykendall, DCU has cover. Possibly if Olsen gets the call, the team would be more likely to want Dema back.
Adu- his selection doesn't really hurt the team unless Tino is selected too.

[juventino3]

We need defenders, a winger, and a solid target man. I would pick Zayner in the first round. With the remaining picks I would try and draft Groenwald/Burch, Moore/Veris/McEachron, and Cvilikas/Jarun. That would give us 2 defenders, a winger, and a striker. In the supplemental draft they can add a defensive midfielder (Moss, Hamburger, or Boyden?), another defender (Noriega or Seneca?), and another striker (Oduro, Joyce, or Becerra?).

[chayes]

I'd like to see them go after Ianni or Sturgis.

I thought both played well in the U-20 WC, Ianni especially. Gives us more depth and flexibility if Nowak decides to keep the 3-5-2.

Wilson doesn't exactly fit in a 3 back system and Stokes will be gone as soon as his contract counts against the cap. Ianni gives us someone young to groom when Prideaux becomes ineffective/too expensive (is that now?). He'd give us 5 solid backs (Boz, Namoff, Erpen, Prideaux, Ianni) for the 3 spots to cover in case of eventual yellow card accumulation and injury.

[Lowecifer]

Where's JoeSoccerFan when you need him!?

[juventino3]

I'd like to see them go after Ianni or Sturgis.

I thought both played well in the U-20 WC, Ianni especially. Gives us more depth and flexibility if Nowak decides to keep the 3-5-2.

Wilson doesn't exactly fit in a 3 back system and Stokes will be gone as soon as his contract counts against the cap. Ianni gives us someone young to groom when Prideaux becomes ineffective/too expensive (is that now?). He'd give us 5 solid backs (Boz, Namoff, Erpen, Prideaux, Ianni) for the 3 spots to cover in case of eventual yellow card accumulation and injury.

Ianni is a good player, but Zayner has better speed and technique. Both of them are very versatile, so I would be happy with either to be honest. Sturgis, unfortunately, will be gone by the time DC is picking. Tyson Wahl is another player Nowak should give a long hard look.

[fatbastard]

I thought both played well in the U-20 WC, Ianni especially. Really? I was not impressed by Ianni in that tournament at all, felt he seemed to react to the attackers wrong and alot of them got by him.
I liked Sturgis alot, but we'd have to trade up to get him.
(Dema for Martins and a #1 draft pick? ;))

[ButlerBob]

How about defender Jeff Curtin from Georgetown? He seems like he might be a good pick up. Maybe not with the first round pick, but should be helpful in the back.

[dfb547490]

I have a mock draft up here (http://bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=289183)...I have you guys taking Patrick Ianni from UCLA in the 1st round. Had a good U-20 WC, I figure he's a future 10-year starter in MLS (if he doesn't go overseas) who can be eased into the lineup in DC without needing to start right away. Good pickup for DCU if you guys do go in that direction.

[JoeSoccerFan]

Where's JoeSoccerFan when you need him!?

While I'd like to say that I've been, reviewing tapes, notes, and generally preparing for the draft in my quiet, private office. However, my wife and I were celebrating our 20th anniversery at the Inn at Little Washington. Note to newbies, big events (e.g., weddings, births, etc.) should be scheduled for the off-season. Nicely done - Pints.

I have a few thoughts, but I want to evaluate the players against each other. I'll come out with my picks for DCU next week.

[JoeW]

While I'd like to say that I've been, reviewing tapes, notes, and generally preparing for the draft in my quiet, private office. However, my wife and I were celebrating our 20th anniversery at the Inn at Little Washington. Note to newbies, big events (e.g., weddings, births, etc.) should be scheduled for the off-season. Nicely done - Pints.

I have a few thoughts, but I want to evaluate the players against each other. I'll come out with my picks for DCU next week.

Infidel! Putting something as paltry as an "anniversary" (now if it had been in celebration of DCU's 10 anniversary perhaps I'd be more understanding) above analysis of a soccer draft on the internet....you're luck some of us don't have you pilloried b/c you weren't available in our time of need.

On another note--Inn at Little Washington--it's people like you that raise the bar for the rest of us when it comes to anniversaries. Geez, I was thinking of carryout from Outback...I guess I'll need to reconsider my options.

[Lowecifer]

I think Marc Burch would be a good pick up for wing depth, if he's available. Also, I read in Buzz Carrick's rankings that Matt Groenwald (St. John's) has been described as "A faster Josh Gros". He also might be a good pick up.

[ursula]

I think Marc Burch would be a good pick up for wing depth, if he's available. Also, I read in Buzz Carrick's rankings that Matt Groenwald (St. John's) has been described as "A faster Josh Gros". He also might be a good pick up.

I like Burch as a winger. The Groenwald puzzles me a bit. Gros is 95% athletic ability, 5% soccer skills. (Well he's improving on that but he'll never get to where Mark Chung with a hangover was.) In addition Gros never played the wing before coming to us, right? But Groenwald has played midfield for years now. Perhaps he's got just a wee bit more soccer know-how than Josh?

[JoeSoccerFan]

On another note--Inn at Little Washington--it's people like you that raise the bar for the rest of us when it comes to anniversaries. Geez, I was thinking of carryout from Outback...I guess I'll need to reconsider my options.

Given what my wife puts up with living with me after 20 years, she's due.

Also, it's a small investment to keep her happy for my other endeavors - world cup, travel to other MLS games, WCQ, etc. :)

[JoeSoccerFan]

Burch can't play wide midfield in a PN 3-5-2 - not enough speed.

Groenwald maybe....

[soccer1055]

I like Burch as a winger. The Groenwald puzzles me a bit. Gros is 95% athletic ability, 5% soccer skills. (Well he's improving on that but he'll never get to where Mark Chung with a hangover was.) In addition Gros never played the wing before coming to us, right? But Groenwald has played midfield for years now. Perhaps he's got just a wee bit more soccer know-how than Josh?
I can't speak to Gros' soccer skills but Groenwald I have seen Groenwald play and he has speed and very good ball skills and soccer skills

[ursula]

Burch can't play wide midfield in a PN 3-5-2 - not enough speed.


You hurt me Joe. Hurt me deep! All hopes gone!

[Bootsy Collins]

However, my wife and I were celebrating our 20th anniversery at the Inn at Little Washington.
Hey, happy anniversary!

[Zman Gunner]

I'd love to see DCU end up with Jason Garey. But I don't see it happening. There are just too many teams in MLS who don't go for underage (ie: teenage) talent in the Superdraft. KC, NE, LA (though granted that was under Schmid) and Dallas are all teams that have never or rarely chosen a P-40 (now GenA) player.

I think the one team who may grab Garey before DC is unfortunately the Metros at #5. That team is woefully lacking in terms of forwards and Lalas seems the type who would rather get a "name" player like Garey than wait a few years for a younger player to develop (case in point - Meola pick-up, recent Henderson-for-Ward swap). Dallas is the wild card in terms in terms of what they may draft - they could use EJ cover at forward but they have Ruiz, Mina (assuming he does not play for Ecuador in WC2006), and Thompson - plus they sometimes play a 4-3-3 so players like Nunez, Alvarez, and even O'Brien can play wings.

I think that you need to differentiate the younger (i.e. U17) Gen Adidas players vs. the older ones. The group of players who I believe will start getting picked later in the win-now world of MLS are the U17 type players (i.e. Besagno, Kirk last year - this year it is Altidore, Wagner. I will be very surprised to see one of them mentioned as a candidate for the #1 overall pick like Besagno was - Altidore has a chance of being a late 1st rounder). I will agree that there are some teams with a track record with teenagers (i.e. DCU); however, most teams would shy away from them due to lack of short-run returns from them. In terms of the older Gen Adidas players, I think that most teams generally all place a decent premium on them due to their salary cap exempt status. The teams that you mention who shy away from Gen Ad have all been active in drafting them as of late (LA - Kirk [2005], Grabavoy, Gardner [2004]; NE - Parkhurst [2005], Dempsey [2004]; DAL - Goodson [2004]; KC - Pore [2005] plus they just acquired John [2005]).