Who's getting tickets? Predictions, Results, and Reasons

[nowherenova]

I'm sure I'm not the only one who has been pulling my hair out the past few weeks, but in honor of all the crazyness regarding WC tickets I'd like to get some action going on the prediction side.

Let's predict who's in and why. Perhaps in the form of a cut-off date or time
for apps. We've been exposed to all kinds of facts and rumors on this whole deal, but which is which? Was the fax machine really broken? Exactly how many tickets are available? How many passwords were issued? All of these factors must be considered.

There is plenty of evidence available in this forum so if you're as bored and anxious at the same time as myself give er a guess and maybe some reasoning.

And for God's sake if you get a notification from USSF let us know details!

**********************

I'm guessing those who had them in by Dec 14th will get tix. I've heard some quotes from Amy (rumors) that influence me, but it's mostly from banging away at my calculator while reading these boards for the last 2 weeks. ( What did we say 4 minutes per fax?)

So Dec 14th.

[JMal]

It is a bit of a mystery isn't it. I for one would really like to know how many fax machines they were using. That's an important factor (along with number of tickets)

I think they had a ton of faxes. I say Dec 13th at 5pm ct

[JBigjake]

Let's predict who's in and why.
Why? Isn't there already enough anxiety?

[Shibb]

Side question: Am I the only one checking his Visa activity once a day to see if any charges from the USSF has hit the account?

:o

[JMal]

Why? Isn't there already enough anxiety?

Nah. Let's crank it up a couple o' notches. :cool:

[Palermo10]

Side question: Am I the only one checking his Visa activity once a day to see if any charges from the USSF has hit the account?

:o

I've been checking for more than a week now. So no :)

[nowherenova]

no, you're definately not alone

[gngrasso]

Ok here is my insane handicapping. Represents Central Standard Time submitted, and odds of getting tickets:

12/12 3:00 pm fax 100%
12/12 5:00 pm fax 90%
12/12 post 5:00pm fax 85%

12/13 first fedex delivery batch and morning faxes 75%
12/13 second fedex delivery batch and late morning faxes 70%
12/13 afternoon delivery and faxes 50%

12/14 and 12/15 weekend faxes 30%

12/16 fedexes and faxes 10%
post 12/16 0%

[JMal]

Ok here is my insane handicapping. Represents Central Standard Time submitted, and odds of getting tickets:

12/12 3:00 pm fax 100%
12/12 5:00 pm fax 90%
12/12 post 5:00pm fax 85%

12/13 first fedex delivery batch and morning faxes 75%
12/13 second fedex delivery batch and late morning faxes 70%
12/13 afternoon delivery and faxes 50%

12/14 and 12/15 weekend faxes 30%

12/16 fedexes and faxes 10%
post 12/16 0%


You're not affiliated with the USSF are you? That's against the rules of this contest and if we had fine print it would read accordingly.

[JacksonJazz#9]

what about those applying (me) thru the FIFA website for USA v Czech's? got my application in plenty early (although i know, when received doesnt matter for the FIFA site)

someone handicap my odds will ya??

dont say "zero", "snowballs chance" etc :cool:

[nowherenova]

You're not affiliated with the USSF are you? That's against the rules of this contest and if we had fine print it would read accordingly.

No wonder they are taking so long. Amy and friends are surfing on BigSoccer off the lunch hour!

[gngrasso]

what about those applying (me) thru the FIFA website for USA v Czech's? got my application in plenty early (although i know, when received doesnt matter for the FIFA site)

someone handicap my odds will ya??

dont say "zero", "snowballs chance" etc :cool:

Personally I don't have alot of faith in the odds through FIFA, too much competition chasing too few tickets.

My personal belief: These FIFA "phases" are mostly just a way for them to keep our hopes up and our dollars away from the scalpers.

Frankly if I lose out thru USS I will immediately by thru a ticket broker. I'm not even bothering with FIFA. By the time we here back from FIFA that we didn't get tickets, black market tickets will be even more outrageous than they are now. Just think of all those who lose FIFA lottery hitting the scalpers

[El-Professor]

Some observations:

1) I haven't heard of anyone who got a real fax "through" in those few hours after the lines supposedly opened. I've read many posts, like myself, who thought their fax went through but had to send USSF our fax transmission record in order to get confirmation. When they did confirm my order I got #19--.

2) I doubt they used a bank of fax machines, it would have been much easier to receive the faxes digitally and store them on a hard drive. This would explain the total system failure in those first few hours.

3) And hell yeah, lets speculate, dream up every conspiracy under the sun, get anxious, cuss the USSF, and wring our hands cuz we ain't got nuthin' better to do until we get our tickets! I check here, my email and my credit card multiple times a day. Craziness!! F-yeah!!

[NBlue]

I'll play.
Note my numbers represent the likelihood (imo) that >90% of those who submitted applications in the timeslot will receive some form of tickets (I have no doubt that USSF will lose, fail to properly enter or otherwise screw up at least 2-3% of apps for each time period

12/12 3:00 pm fax 100%
12/12 5:00 pm fax 100%
12/12 post 5:00pm fax 95%

12/13 first fedex delivery batch and morning faxes 66.67%
12/13 second fedex delivery batch and late morning faxes 50%
12/13 afternoon delivery and faxes 25%

12/14 and 12/15 weekend faxes 5%

12/16 fedexes and faxes 1%
post 12/16 >1%

I am a bit more pessimistic about the numbers as I think the USSF will hold back more tickets than we are anticipating for guests and friends of the USSF.

[JacksonJazz#9]

Personally I don't have alot of faith in the odds through FIFA, too much competition chasing too few tickets.

My personal belief: These FIFA "phases" are mostly just a way for them to keep our hopes up and our dollars away from the scalpers.

Frankly if I lose out thru USS I will immediately by thru a ticket broker. I'm not even bothering with FIFA. By the time we here back from FIFA that we didn't get tickets, black market tickets will be even more outrageous than they are now. Just think of all those who lose FIFA lottery hitting the scalpers

how are you going to be able to buy tix from a broker, when they are person specific??? maybe a silly question, but .....

[Palermo10]

Some observations:

1) I haven't heard of anyone who got a real fax "through" in those few hours after the lines supposedly opened. I've read many posts, like myself, who thought their fax went through but had to send USSF our fax transmission record in order to get confirmation. When they did confirm my order I got #19--.


Mine went through at 12:25pm central time on 12/12. I didn't have to send a fax transmission, and I got a confirmation number 103-.

Me likey de chances.

[gngrasso]

Mine went through at 12:25pm central time on 12/12. I didn't have to send a fax transmission, and I got a confirmation number 103-.

Me likey de chances.


Dude you're going to Germany. Congrats. :)

[gngrasso]

how are you going to be able to buy tix from a broker, when they are person specific??? maybe a silly question, but .....
Not a silly question - a great question.

It's a risk fer sure. But after reading all the discussion here from the veterens, I like my chances of not "getting checked" at the gate better than my chances of scoring legally.
:rolleyes:

[Etienne_72772]

Dude you're going to Germany. ******** you. :)


Fixed your post.

[nowherenova]

Plenty of people are going. Including most of us here.