Who's getting tickets? Predictions, Results, and Reasons

[Etienne_72772]

Is there any proof that they said they would notify us by Jan 6th, or was it just our assumption given that they said they would notify us before the public sale started? Which I don't think they ever said. All they said was:

"All ticket orders are subject to U.S. Soccer and FIFA’s Terms and Conditions and members with order forms that cannot be filled (i.e. insufficient information, payment issues, etc.) will be notified before tickets are released to the public."



In mid December I emailed USSF about timing and this was the response:

"Dear U.S. Soccer Fan,

Thank you for your interest in U.S. Soccer and the 2006 FIFA World
Cup!
We appreciate your eagerness and understand the desire to make
accommodations should you be allocated tickets or attempt to obtain
tickets elsewhere should you be placed on the U.S. Soccer Waiting
List.
We are validating and processing orders as quickly as possible and
promise to notify ussoccerfan.com members who participated in the
pre-sale of their order status (i.e. fulfilled or placed on the U.S.
Soccer Waiting List) as soon as possible.

Thank you for your patience and understanding.

U.S. Soccer"


As soon as possible, not Jan. 6.



And as far as USSF ( NYC government etc etc) being run like a business, well sure, maybe they would need to do things differently to stay in business. But as far as I know they are NOT a business, and basically can do whatever they want! Much like FIFA. Running it like a business would require more employees, more resources etc. and somebody's gotta pay for that.

As far as the FIFA lottery, well it's easy enough to get the application together now, well in advance of the deadline, and just submit it or don't submit it based on results of USSF sale. It's basically the exact same data we gave for USSF sale, no? (match selection, ID info etc.)

Amy told me January 6 when I called her during the week after the fax/fedex debacle.

[Galaxian]

As was the case with most of you, I tried unsuccessfully several times to fax the minute the line opened up or was supposed to. After 2 1/2 hours of trying I had to give up and overnight it as I had 2 finals to study for the next day. Order got into Chicago 11:40ish in the morning and received #85**. Last name starts with H and I ordered 2 tickets to each of the first round games and tickets through to the semifinals. Any guess on my chances? Good luck to everyone.
this would make the whole chronological thing not true , because mine got there at 9:42 the next day , and I got a 86** number... so who knows good luck dude , I hope I'll see you in Germany..:)

[Shibb]

this would make the whole chronological thing not true , because mine got there at 9:42 the next day , and I got a 86** number... so who knows good luck dude , I hope I'll see you in Germany..:)

Does your last name start with a I, J, K or L by any chance?

[NBlue]

Does your last name start with a I, J, K or L by any chance?


I'm a UPS delivery and my last name begins with H and I have a 86xx #

fwiw.

[nowherenova]

I fedexed mine , 86** and it got there at 9:42 on tuesday the thirteenth . My last name starts with K . I ordered two tickets for the italy match and two for the ghana match. Category three.
If that helps anyone trying to still figure out the number system.

short-term memory, ugh!

[SCBozeman]

Hate to burst your bubble, but my number was 80** and my the first letter of my last name is in the middle of the alphabet. No way your theory is true. I bet its sequential.

I fedexed mine, btw, and it arrive with the 9:43am Tuesday shipment.

EDIT: But I think I should mention, in case it matters, that I only applied for tickets for the round of 16 through the final (I already has TST-3 US tix). So maybe that matters.

Does your first name start with "A"? Perhaps they transposed the two names on accident.

[Etienne_72772]

Even in Palermo's review, there were a couple of outlyers here and there. But on the whole, the pattern stuck. For Fedex, last name correlated to the number received.

And it could be that they started at 8000 (or 8100--perhaps they reserved 8000 for those that did not order first round tickets?), put everybody in alphabetical order, and started filling tickets from there. Which is why some "S"s are in 91xx and some are 92xx.

[gngrasso]

Amy told me January 6 when I called her during the week after the fax/fedex debacle.

OK, I stand corrected. But maybe she gave you some off-the-record info, that ulimately (obviously) was unrealisitic, rather than the fed's official position.

[El-Professor]

And as far as USSF ( NYC government etc etc) being run like a business, well sure, maybe they would need to do things differently to stay in business. But as far as I know they are NOT a business, and basically can do whatever they want! Much like FIFA. Running it like a business would require more employees, more resources etc. and somebody's gotta pay for that.


An excellent point! I'd rep this one paragraph if I could. USSF is an association, the leadership of a large bureacracy overseeing a major sporting institution. They are not a "business" in two ways 1) the main reason for their existence is not to sell product in demand by consumers, sure they sell stuff to us, but that is not their primary function; and 2) they operate in a monopoly environment. Both of these conditions are likely to produce inefficiency and unhappy "customers" when they do sell things.
I don't fault them a bit (of course I have a low number so maybe I'm biased) except for not communicating better with everyone who applied. They have our emails, it would have been easy for them to keep us posted.

[Shibb]

An excellent point! I'd rep this one paragraph if I could. USSF is an association, the leadership of a large bureacracy overseeing a major sporting institution. They are not a "business" in two ways 1) the main reason for their existence is not to sell product in demand by consumers, sure they sell stuff to us, but that is not their primary function; and 2) they operate in a monopoly environment. Both of these conditions are likely to produce inefficiency and unhappy "customers" when they do sell things.
I don't fault them a bit (of course I have a low number so maybe I'm biased) except for not communicating better with everyone who applied. They have our emails, it would have been easy for them to keep us posted.

Maybe it's my business vs academic background, but I'll politely disagree with one point you make. USSF is in the business of selling soccer to the American public. They (or others) have done a great job of this on the Youth level. They are making inroads on the professional (MLS) and international (USMNT) level. Sure, they organize stuff and interface with others. But their growth and income relies on the success of the National Teams. The growth of MLS, USL, etc. augments these, although AFAIK USSF is not directly responsible for those, they still should work together to create events which grow soccer as a recreational and entertainment value to the American public. They may well not think this way, but to be successful they should. If they were the English FA or the Deutsche Verein then maybe they can just be "administrators", but IMO USSF cannot afford to be in a passive role.

[gngrasso]

Maybe it's my business vs academic background, but I'll politely disagree with one point you make. USSF is in the business of selling soccer to the American public.

From their mission statement:

"U.S. Soccer is a non-profit, largely volunteer organization with much of its business administered by a national council of elected officials representing four administrative arms: youth players 19 years of age and under; adult players over the age of 19; the professional division and athletes."

Volunteer organizations will never be as efficient as businesses.


"U.S. SOCCER'S BUSINESS PLAN OVERVIEW
Phase I
In August of 2000, the Federation’s Board of Directors reviewed and unanimously approved Phase I of the Federation’s Business Plan. This marked the first step in executing a framework that emphasized a lean, efficient organization that would be fiscally stable, provide outstanding service to our members and invest in the future of our sport by emphasizing player and facility development."

Especially lean, efficient ones!

Given limited resources they are (IMO) correctly focusing on player and facility development, not admin side involved in processing back office stuff.

[El-Professor]

Maybe it's my business vs academic background, but I'll politely disagree with one point you make. USSF is in the business of selling soccer to the American public.

I agree with this argument as stated, though I think you're splitting a semantic hair. They most definitely are in the public relations business.

[El-Professor]

From their mission statement:

"U.S. Soccer is a non-profit, largely volunteer organization with much of its business administered by a national council of elected officials representing four administrative arms: youth players 19 years of age and under; adult players over the age of 19; the professional division and athletes."

Volunteer organizations will never be as efficient as businesses.


Excellent research and a very good point we should all remember. Rep coming.

[Etienne_72772]

OK, I stand corrected. But maybe she gave you some off-the-record info, that ulimately (obviously) was unrealisitic, rather than the fed's official position.

I would agree with that. It certainly was not an official proclamation.

And with regard to business v. volunteer organization. I don't care one bit about the inefficiencies of USSF, unless:

1. The inefficiencies allow a ticket distribution system that is intrinsically unfair (already evidenced by the fact that they assured everyone that they had the ability to handle the large number of faxes, and the fact that very few people actually got their faxes in the first day. Seems a bit unfair to me, especially since I spent the bulk of one afternoon standing at a fax machine trying to get the damn thing to go through. This created another unfair situation--do I stop faxing and fedex by the fedex cutoff in order to get it in as early as possible on Tuesday morning? Or do I not fedex and hope that the fax goes through on Monday evening? I chose to fedex, esp. b/c of the rumors of problems with their fax machines.)

USSF failed miserably with this one.

2. The inefficiencies allow ticket distribution after the FIFA cutoff, thereby screwing people out of being able to take the chance of getting FIFA tickets b/c of a fear of double ticket processing.

USSF is working on this one, but cutting it pretty close. I sure hope they are able to get it done...

So USSF can be as inefficient as possible, as long as it is fair in the end.

[ChelseaMatt]

I posted the following a while ago on another thread. The thing is, I now believe there were a lot more faxes going through than I originally thought: recently, someone posted that they had a 19xx confirmation number for a fax going through the first day. Things aren't looking good for those of us who overnighted it on the first day.


Fellow ticket-hungry desperates:
******** I've read compelling arguments over the last two
days regarding the logic behind the confirmation
numbers sent to us by email, and this is what I've
surmised: (and forgive me if I'm repeating some of
you-- I've found some of your observations to be
astute)
********** I'm making several basic assumptions (which have
been relatively proven over the emails I've read):
1) 6-7 fax machines were used, and the confirmation
numbers given to those who sent in faxes start at
either 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, etc., and on each
fax machine, no more than 100 faxes got through
2) Overnight deliveries start at 8000 and are in
alphabetical order-- these number some 1300.
3) USSoccer will be giving out roughly 2800 tickets
per game.** (If we're lucky).** Hopefully, 2500 if we're
not
4) While each person can order up to 4 tickets per
game, the average will roughly be two.
******** So, USSoccer could handle it in 2 ways, either:
A) Give out tickets to those orders coming over the
fax on 12/12 first, then the next day deliveries, or:
B) Give out tickets randomly to orders coming over the
first day fax and next day deliveries.

If A is the case:
Approximately 80(number of faxes per machine) x
6(number of fax machines) x 2 (number of tickets per
order) = 960 tickets given to orders through fax
machine on day #1.** This leaves about 2500-1000= 1500
tickets to be given to 1300 overnight orders.
So: 1300 (overnight orders) x 2 (ticket requests per
order) = 2600 - 1500 (tickets still available) = 1100
S.O.L. unhappy people.** This would give a 1500/2600 =
60% success rate for next day delivery orders.

If B is the case:
960 + 2600 = 3600 tickets ordered over the first day
fax + next day delivery, giving a 2500/3600 = 70%
success rate.

Of course, this is wishful thinking on my part.** Any
other thoughts?

[gngrasso]

So, USSoccer could handle it in 2 ways, either:
A) Give out tickets to those orders coming over the
fax on 12/12 first, then the next day deliveries, or:
B) Give out tickets randomly to orders coming over the
first day fax and next day deliveries.



Man, the thing that sucks is whatever they do people will be unhappy. I just wish they had enough tickets for all.

Thing is, it was advertised as first come first served, so I don't see how they could not fill all the fax orders first.

But, I really don't consider the difficulty in getting through on the fax lines unfair. Everybody had an equal chance to get through. It was just luck if your call connected just as a machine freed up.

So in essence, didn't this just become a big lottery on 12/12? And, if you missed the "12/12 lottery" you are given a second chance by fedexing?

Not really much different than an outright advertised lottery.

OK some people gave up faxing in favor of fedexing, so not really a TRUE fair lottery. But close to one.

[chrisrun]

We still don't know HOW they are going to distribute the tickets. Just because you applied for tickets for 3 games doesn't mean that you will get tickets for all 3 games. Maybe they will try and give tickets to everyone that applied in the presale, with everyone getting 1 game rather than 1/3 of the people getting 3 games. We just don't know...

[gngrasso]

We still don't know HOW they are going to distribute the tickets. Just because you applied for tickets for 3 games doesn't mean that you will get tickets for all 3 games. Maybe they will try and give tickets to everyone that applied in the presale, with everyone getting 1 game rather than 1/3 of the people getting 3 games. We just don't know...

Good point.

I would guess that once your app is selected they are going to try to fill all tickets you ordered. Otherwise, if you ordered 3 games and they want to give you just one, how would they decide which of your 3 to give you?

[Wizhawk]

We still don't know HOW they are going to distribute the tickets. Just because you applied for tickets for 3 games doesn't mean that you will get tickets for all 3 games. Maybe they will try and give tickets to everyone that applied in the presale, with everyone getting 1 game rather than 1/3 of the people getting 3 games. We just don't know...

I seriously doubt that's how they would do it. It is first come, first served. So if you say "I want two tickets to each of the first round games," and those tickets are available, you should get them.

[Etienne_72772]

But, I really don't consider the difficulty in getting through on the fax lines unfair. Everybody had an equal chance to get through. It was just luck if your call connected just as a machine freed up.



I absolutely think it is unfair. There certainly is not an even chance of getting through for everybody. Some had the freedom to stand by the fax machine for hours trying to get through. Others had their lunch hour. Some people tried hundreds of times. Some only a dozen.

What especially irks me is the FAQ that stated USSF was ready to handle the large influxes of faxes. Fact is--they weren't.