Who's getting tickets? Predictions, Results, and Reasons

[Shibb]

For whatever its worth, I had a similar inquiry from the Fed this weekend and my confirmation number is 89XX. I hope this means good things.

With me they haven't called, they haven't written. I think they just don't care anymore. The magic is gone.

[Etienne_72772]

Basically, Palermo10's theory (for which I think there is fairly strong evidence) is that faxes were numbered sequentially as they arrived, with the intervals betwen confirmation numbers being the total number of tickets ordered. The "last name-to-confirmation number" sequences works for the fedexes, which probably arrived in two (or more) big clumps on Tuesday morning. So the Fed just arranged them by last name to put them in order.

I should add that I also think that there are gaps along the sequences, so a number in the 8000s does not necessarily mean that 8000 tickets have been ordered. Also, the confirmations seem to start at 1000, indicating a block already allocated.

Another thread indicates that 4 tickets were allocated to each state federation, but I don't know whether that means 4 tickets for each of the first 3 games, or 4 tickets total. 4 tickets for each of the first 3 games would give you 12 x 50 states = 600 tickets allocated to the state federations.

Getting to the last name correlation, with the Fedexes on Tuesday, they started the numbering at 8000, and basically the first two numbers in the 4 digits related to the last name of the person who ordered the tickets. So 80xx were assigned to people with a last name that began with A, 81xx = B. The reason that 83xx=E, as noted above, was that they combined some of the letters together, probably based on how many people have last names starting with those numbers. I don't know the exact distribution, but it could have been 80xx=A; 81xx=B; 82XX=C, D; 83xx=E, etc. up to Z. My last name starts with "S", and I am 91xx. At least two others on these boards posted that they had 91xx numbers, and their last names began with "S".

[jhsuosu]

This is pure speculation and I don't exactly have any evidence for it, but it seems like it's possible they are processing faxes and fedexed orders completely seperately. As in, if you fedexed your order, it only matters when you got your order in relative to those who fedexed it, not to those who faxed theirs in. Considering how they appear to have two seperate sets of confirmation numbers for ground mail and fax, it seems to me like it would be difficult for them to keep track of exactly when the fedex shipments arrived relative to faxes. And considering how unprepared the USSF seems to have been, I wouldn't put it past them to have split the ticket allocation in half, and reserved half for those who faxed in their orders and half for those who mailed theirs in. It wouldnt exactly be "first come first served" as the USSF had claimed it would be, but it does seem like the sort of thing they might do to try make things easier on themselves.

Again, I don't really have any good evidence for this, it just sort of makes sense to me...

[cswan]

At least two others on these boards posted that they had 91xx numbers, and their last names began with "S".

My last name starts with "S", rec'd confirm # 92xx.

DHL'd overnight -- received by USSF on Tues. 12/13 at 9:45am.

Christine S.

[Rickster]

My last name starts with "S", and I am 91xx. At least two others on these boards posted that they had 91xx numbers, and their last names began with "S".

My last name starts with S and I am 91xx as well, so there does appear to be some sort of relationship.

[rksehga]

Look, I think it's time to put to rest this USSF was unprepared jazz. I, like almost all here, thought USSF was unprepared. I have since found out that they were prepared, and are and have been diligently processing the applications. Have there been hiccups? Yes - some will probably say there have been some awfully foul smelling burps, but I do not think USSF is doing anything to make this process easier on themselves at the expense of fairness. They are trying to meet their word with all their efforts. This isn't as easy a process as some might think.

Some might want to compare our situation to Australia's. Well, have you considered that the Aussie Fed might be giving more of its tickets to sponsors and thus had fewer tickets to distribute? Have you considered the known problems the Socceroos have had that have prevented them from becoming part of AFC before?

Does our Fed have its problems? Certainly. Are they out to screw the fans? Hell no.


This is pure speculation and I don't exactly have any evidence for it, but it seems like it's possible they are processing faxes and fedexed orders completely seperately. As in, if you fedexed your order, it only matters when you got your order in relative to those who fedexed it, not to those who faxed theirs in. Considering how they appear to have two seperate sets of confirmation numbers for ground mail and fax, it seems to me like it would be difficult for them to keep track of exactly when the fedex shipments arrived relative to faxes. And considering how unprepared the USSF seems to have been, I wouldn't put it past them to have split the ticket allocation in half, and reserved half for those who faxed in their orders and half for those who mailed theirs in. It wouldnt exactly be "first come first served" as the USSF had claimed it would be, but it does seem like the sort of thing they might do to try make things easier on themselves.

Again, I don't really have any good evidence for this, it just sort of makes sense to me...

[Ronaldo's Idol]

Getting to the last name correlation, with the Fedexes on Tuesday, they started the numbering at 8000, and basically the first two numbers in the 4 digits related to the last name of the person who ordered the tickets. So 80xx were assigned to people with a last name that began with A, 81xx = B. The reason that 83xx=E, as noted above, was that they combined some of the letters together, probably based on how many people have last names starting with those numbers. I don't know the exact distribution, but it could have been 80xx=A; 81xx=B; 82XX=C, D; 83xx=E, etc. up to Z. My last name starts with "S", and I am 91xx. At least two others on these boards posted that they had 91xx numbers, and their last names began with "S".

Hate to burst your bubble, but my number was 80** and my the first letter of my last name is in the middle of the alphabet. No way your theory is true. I bet its sequential.

I fedexed mine, btw, and it arrive with the 9:43am Tuesday shipment.

EDIT: But I think I should mention, in case it matters, that I only applied for tickets for the round of 16 through the final (I already has TST-3 US tix). So maybe that matters.

[suppitty]

Mine started with 20***. :(

[gngrasso]

Look, I think it's time to put to rest this USSF was unprepared jazz. I, like almost all here, thought USSF was unprepared.

I'm not sure I agree with the premise that alot of people feel the USSF was unprepared. Some people have bitched here and there but I think that's just general frustration with the process, not necessarily how USSF handled it. I haven't seen anybody say they were out to screw the fans.

Personally, I haven't seen anything to indicate they handled it either poorly or well, other than the fact that it's taking what seems like a long time to notify us.

I think it's unfair to judge them w/o knowing the full process they are going through.

[klattamaniac]

I'm not sure I agree with the premise that alot of people feel the USSF was unprepared. Some people have bitched here and there but I think that's just general frustration with the process, not necessarily how USSF handled it. I haven't seen anybody say they were out to screw the fans.

Personally, I haven't seen anything to indicate they handled it either poorly or well, other than the fact that it's taking what seems like a long time to notify us.

I think it's unfair to judge them w/o knowing the full process they are going through.

So the USSF missing their deadline to inform fans (Jan 6th) by 8 days (Jan 14th), only giving those wait-listed fans one day to mobilize to enter the FIFA lottery...doesn't qualify as poorly run for you? In many businesses, missing a deadline by an entire week is not a good thing...

[gngrasso]

So the USSF missing their deadline to inform fans (Jan 6th) by 8 days (Jan 14th), only giving those wait-listed fans one day to mobilize to enter the FIFA lottery...doesn't qualify as poorly run for you? In many businesses, missing a deadline by an entire week is not a good thing...

Is there any proof that they said they would notify us by Jan 6th, or was it just our assumption given that they said they would notify us before the public sale started? Which I don't think they ever said. All they said was:

"All ticket orders are subject to U.S. Soccer and FIFA’s Terms and Conditions and members with order forms that cannot be filled (i.e. insufficient information, payment issues, etc.) will be notified before tickets are released to the public."



In mid December I emailed USSF about timing and this was the response:

"Dear U.S. Soccer Fan,

Thank you for your interest in U.S. Soccer and the 2006 FIFA World
Cup!
We appreciate your eagerness and understand the desire to make
accommodations should you be allocated tickets or attempt to obtain
tickets elsewhere should you be placed on the U.S. Soccer Waiting
List.
We are validating and processing orders as quickly as possible and
promise to notify ussoccerfan.com members who participated in the
pre-sale of their order status (i.e. fulfilled or placed on the U.S.
Soccer Waiting List) as soon as possible.

Thank you for your patience and understanding.

U.S. Soccer"


As soon as possible, not Jan. 6.



And as far as USSF ( NYC government etc etc) being run like a business, well sure, maybe they would need to do things differently to stay in business. But as far as I know they are NOT a business, and basically can do whatever they want! Much like FIFA. Running it like a business would require more employees, more resources etc. and somebody's gotta pay for that.

As far as the FIFA lottery, well it's easy enough to get the application together now, well in advance of the deadline, and just submit it or don't submit it based on results of USSF sale. It's basically the exact same data we gave for USSF sale, no? (match selection, ID info etc.)

[rksehga]

I'm not sure I agree with the premise that alot of people feel the USSF was unprepared.

I'm not sure you can read then. Look at the sheer number of posts coming from different mouths deriding the Fed's handling of this. Now, if you want to extrapolate that the statements were just made out of frustration, fine, but the majority of the response on this board initially placed the blame on some alleged incompetence of the Fed.

[DCU]

I'm not sure you can read then. Look at the sheer number of posts coming from different mouths deriding the Fed's handling of this. Now, if you want to extrapolate that the statements were just made out of frustration, fine, but the majority of the response on this board initially placed the blame on some alleged incompetence of the Fed.

Give me a break. They are incompetent. If you don't think so you either work there, gave birth to someone who does, or married someone who does. Or...your brother works there and he had you fax your form on another fax line and you're smugly telling us what a bunch of sourpusses we are because you know you've got tickets.

I'm pissed because they claimed they'd be prepared for the fax orders. Were they? I was one of the many who faxed unsuccessfully for 4 straight hours before rushing off to fedex. The situation was both ridiculous and totally indicative of their incompetence.

Could they have done this entire process digitally? Yes, they certainly could. But for some reason they've opted for a method that both creates a ton of work for their staff and allows for a massive degree of human error.

Their failures are due to incompetence or laziness or, as seems more likely, some combination of both.

[gngrasso]

Give me a break. They are incompetent. If you don't think so you either work there, gave birth to someone who does, or married someone who does. Or...your brother works there and he had you fax your form on another fax line and you're smugly telling us what a bunch of sourpusses we are because you know you've got tickets.

I'm pissed because they claimed they'd be prepared for the fax orders. Were they? I was one of the many who faxed unsuccessfully for 4 straight hours before rushing off to fedex. The situation was both ridiculous and totally indicative of their incompetence.

Could they have done this entire process digitally? Yes, they certainly could. But for some reason they've opted for a method that both creates a ton of work for their staff and allows for a massive degree of human error.

Their failures are due to incompetence or laziness or, as seems more likely, some combination of both.


I'm just a fan like you, with no connection to them at all, and I have no clue if I will get tickets.

So the fax machines were busy. So you had to fedex your application. Relax dude, everybody's in the same boat. If YOU weren't getting through, other people weren't either.

It's easy to be a monday morning quarterback. I see no evidence of laziness, maybe just a lack of planning.

[gngrasso]

I'm not sure you can read then. Look at the sheer number of posts coming from different mouths deriding the Fed's handling of this. Now, if you want to extrapolate that the statements were just made out of frustration, fine, but the majority of the response on this board initially placed the blame on some alleged incompetence of the Fed.

A few high strung individuals is not the entire BS community. It's easy to assume a vocal minority represents the views of everybody.

[roadkit]

My last name starts with S and I am 91xx as well, so there does appear to be some sort of relationship.

I'm an "S" and my # is 20XX.

I think the only relationship is the "XX" at the end. ;)

[Shibb]

I'm an "S" and my # is 20XX.

I think the only relationship is the "XX" at the end. ;)

According to the model they built that would indicate that you faxed through your application relatively early on the first afternoon, maybe before 3 pm?

[roadkit]

According to the model they built that would indicate that you faxed through your application relatively early on the first afternoon, maybe before 3 pm?

That would be correct.

[Shibb]

That would be correct.

So your confirmation number does not disprove their model but rather supports it. The whole number range / last name theorem is only for orders sent Fedex, where there is no clear order of receipt, as all of the big delivery services just drop all of their overnight packages in one large drop off. For FAX delivery there is a more or less serial order of receipt.

[Fussballman 7]

As was the case with most of you, I tried unsuccessfully several times to fax the minute the line opened up or was supposed to. After 2 1/2 hours of trying I had to give up and overnight it as I had 2 finals to study for the next day. Order got into Chicago 11:40ish in the morning and received #85**. Last name starts with H and I ordered 2 tickets to each of the first round games and tickets through to the semifinals. Any guess on my chances? Good luck to everyone.