Who's getting tickets? Predictions, Results, and Reasons

[nowherenova]

The confirmation numbers are not order numbers or tickets sold. We have been told this already by the USSF. BTW, mine was also a 9:43 am fedex and my confirmation number is 87xx. I don't think 5000 orders or tickets came in on the same truck.

[Galaxian]

The confirmation numbers are not order numbers or tickets sold. We have been told this already by the USSF. BTW, mine was also a 9:43 am fedex and my confirmation number is 87xx. I don't think 5000 orders or tickets came in on the same truck.
yeah thats true. This whole confirmation number mystery is keeping everyone nervous. I hope after the tickets are distributed USSF tells us what the numbers actually mean..lol

[bobl50]

I hate to be a pessimist but two groups that sent in orders together have concluded we are likely not getting tickets -- even though we were fortunate enough to get both orders faxed early the first day. One fax went through at 4:13pm EST (3:13 CST) the other 41 minutes later after re-dialing at least two dozen times. The first fax got a confirmation number of 30xx and the second confirmation number was 36 higher. 41 minutes and 36 numbers apart -- from that we concluded the confirmation numbers were probably close to something sequential.

Then do the math: Using a stadium size optimistically rounded to 50,000 and an 8% allocation, that's just 4000 tickets per event. Figure each order was for between three and four tickets per event -- that says only the first 1200 orders likely got tickets. Back to one of the original post that said 12/12 3:00pm 100% -- I say that figure is 60% or less given there were 2000 orders before 3:00pm. After that, chance are slim unless a lot sent in orders with errors or USSF got more than 8%.

We are all still checking multiple times daily for an email are hoping all our figuring and guesswork is flawed and wrong. But we also know there is a very good chance we may need to try the even slimmer option of the FIFA lottery.

[gngrasso]

I hate to be a pessimist but two groups that sent in orders together have concluded we are likely not getting tickets -- even though we were fortunate enough to get both orders faxed early the first day. One fax went through at 4:13pm EST (3:13 CST) the other 41 minutes later after re-dialing at least two dozen times. The first fax got a confirmation number of 30xx and the second confirmation number was 36 higher. 41 minutes and 36 numbers apart -- from that we concluded the confirmation numbers were probably close to something sequential.



I was the one that said all orders faxed by 3pm CST would get tickets.

I think (hope ;) )the flaw in your thinking is that the confirm numbers strictly represent sequential orders.

Specifically, my fax went thru almost the same time as your second fax (4:54 pm EST per your post), yet I got a confirm of 30xx, same as your FIRST fax.

It's been discussed here that the confirm numbers are more random than we imagine or they somehow indicate what you ordered, or even which fax machine they came in on.

Regardless, to think that the tickets were sold out 3 hours after the lines opened up is beyond comprehension. If true, that probably means less than 10% of USS members are getting tickets.

2000 orders in 3 hours is 11 orders per minute. At about one minute per fax transmission that means they had 11 incoming fax lines. Hmmm, that could be possible.

I still think the "bubble" is somewhere around end of second day.

Man now I'm depressed.

[Old Man!]

Hadn't others on these boards concluded that the first number represented a correspondence to first letter of the last name on the order? It wasn't like A=1, but somewhere on here there was a rough breakdown given what people have mentioned.

I don't think the first digit of your confirmation is sequential.

[primusux]

Can you give a link to the post you're talking about?

[Etienne_72772]

Yes, the week after the orders went through, there were those on these boards that pretty much cracked the code. This is what I remember--Orders started at about 1000, and generally related to the hour on the first day that the faxes went through. 1000 in the first hour, 2000 in the second hour, etc. In addition, the numbers were not sequential, but were merely whatever number the previous guy had, plus however many tickets he ordered. Therefore, if the previous guy in line was 1250, and ordered 10 tickets, the next order was 1260. But it did not appear that each thosand was completely used up (in other words, up to 1999 or so), but stopped somewhere within each thousand--again speculation that when the clock turned over, the next thousand was used. This somewhat bore out, in that for those who shared their numbers, none were high in each thousand. These went on until the 6000s, and then, I believe, there were no orders placed in 7000 (as far as I recollect).

Those who fedexed got a completely different distribution starting at 8000 (I think) that related to the last name of the person who ordered tickets. 8000 to the As, 8100 related to the Bs. Some letters of the alphabet were combined together. My number was 91XX, and I am an "S". Everyone else at the time (at least in our small pool) that had an "S" was a 91XX number.

So, the numbers on the first day by fax were somewhat sequential, but we have no idea how many they stocked in each thousand before starting again at the next thousand. The Fedexes were probably sequential, but they placed them starting alphabetically.

At least, that is what I recall.

[eissman]

Can you give a link to the post you're talking about?

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=278690

[nowherenova]

I'm not sure the fax machines at USSF are capable of recieving a 6 page fax in 1 minute. And I don't want to hear anyone crying who got their fax in in the first couple of hours. Gimme a break.

[Galaxian]

I fedexed mine , 86** and it got there at 9:42 on tuesday the thirteenth . My last name starts with K . I ordered two tickets for the italy match and two for the ghana match. Category three.
If that helps anyone trying to still figure out the number system.

[SCBozeman]

I fedexed mine , 86** and it got there at 9:42 on tuesday the thirteenth . My last name starts with K . I ordered two tickets for the italy match and two for the ghana match. Category three.
If that helps anyone trying to still figure out the number system.

Fedex with Tuesday arrival. Number: 83**. Last name states with E. I ordered two tickets to Czech and two tickets to Italy. Does that comport?

[nowherenova]

One of the threads has a long list of the fedexes and last initials.
Mine was 9:43, last name "M", 87xx. You can see the pattern on the few we have on this page.

[Etienne_72772]

Fedex with Tuesday arrival. Number: 83**. Last name states with E. I ordered two tickets to Czech and two tickets to Italy. Does that comport?

Sure does...

[gngrasso]

Sure does...

For some reason I'm dense today.

Can someone explain to me the Fedex Confirm number to last name connection?

[abw]

For some reason I'm dense today.

Can someone explain to me the Fedex Confirm number to last name connection?

Basically, Palermo10's theory (for which I think there is fairly strong evidence) is that faxes were numbered sequentially as they arrived, with the intervals betwen confirmation numbers being the total number of tickets ordered. The "last name-to-confirmation number" sequences works for the fedexes, which probably arrived in two (or more) big clumps on Tuesday morning. So the Fed just arranged them by last name to put them in order.

I should add that I also think that there are gaps along the sequences, so a number in the 8000s does not necessarily mean that 8000 tickets have been ordered. Also, the confirmations seem to start at 1000, indicating a block already allocated.

Another thread indicates that 4 tickets were allocated to each state federation, but I don't know whether that means 4 tickets for each of the first 3 games, or 4 tickets total. 4 tickets for each of the first 3 games would give you 12 x 50 states = 600 tickets allocated to the state federations.

[LESTER]

Basically, Palermo10's theory (for which I think there is fairly strong evidence) is that faxes were numbered sequentially as they arrived, with the intervals betwen confirmation numbers being the total number of tickets ordered. The "last name-to-confirmation number" sequences works for the fedexes, which probably arrived in two (or more) big clumps on Tuesday morning. So the Fed just arranged them by last name to put them in order.

I should add that I also think that there are gaps along the sequences, so a number in the 8000s does not necessarily mean that 8000 tickets have been ordered. Also, the confirmations seem to start at 1000, indicating a block already allocated.

Another thread indicates that 4 tickets were allocated to each state federation, but I don't know whether that means 4 tickets for each of the first 3 games, or 4 tickets total. 4 tickets for each of the first 3 games would give you 12 x 50 states = 600 tickets allocated to the state federations.

I'm fairly certain that the theory about the gaps equating to number of tickets ordered is incorrect. I got a call on Saturday from the Fed asking me to refax my application (65XX) because they were missing information, including the actual number of tickets ordered. That obviously didn't stop them from assigning me a number weeks ago and assigning the next number on down the line.

Jeremy

[JBigjake]

Palermo's research & analysis has so far seemed the most accurate. There has to be some method for a first-come, first-serve system, despite what USSoccer has said. I also agree with others who believe that large blocks of numbers were not used or reached, so that higher numbers are not out of it yet. Since there is no public sale, there is no longer any time pressure on USSoccer to act (though the suspense is killing us!). I hope to see every one of you in germany, wearing RED!
P.S. to Palermo10: WTF is up with USPalermo in the Serie A? One win since October? http://soccer-stats.football365.com/dom/ITA/teams/Palermo.html

[tab5g]

Since there is no public sale, there is no longer any time pressure on USSoccer to act (though the suspense is killing us!).

I think there is a tremendous amount of time pressure on US Soccer to deliver the ticket news by 1/14, so that those who do not get tickets from US Soccer can enter and application for the current Fifa public sale lottery which closes on 1/15.

from: http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/tickets/index.html
------------------
Tickets for the FIFA World Cup will go on sale again on 12 December 2005. Individual tickets can be ordered for all games except the Opening Match. Team-based tickets are also no longer available. The third sales period begins on Monday 12 December 2005 at 12 noon and ends on Sunday 15 January 2006 at midnight.
------------------

If I've read the regulations correctly, those who are allocated team-specific tickets (either through Fifa or from the home federation) can not apply for individual tickets in the current lottery through Fifa.

Maybe I've read something wrong.

[Shibb]

I'm fairly certain that the theory about the gaps equating to number of tickets ordered is incorrect. I got a call on Saturday from the Fed asking me to refax my application (65XX) because they were missing information, including the actual number of tickets ordered. That obviously didn't stop them from assigning me a number weeks ago and assigning the next number on down the line.

Jeremy

As someone else mentioned on the Yanks In Germany listserve, it's certainly encouraging that 1) they did the follow up rather than just pitch your app and 2) that they're bothering to do this with number 65xx. The insinuation is that they're processing numbers that high, although it could of course be for "waiting list" purposes. Still hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[speedynuggett]

As someone else mentioned on the Yanks In Germany listserve, it's certainly encouraging that 1) they did the follow up rather than just pitch your app and 2) that they're bothering to do this with number 65xx. The insinuation is that they're processing numbers that high, although it could of course be for "waiting list" purposes. Still hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

For whatever its worth, I had a similar inquiry from the Fed this weekend and my confirmation number is 89XX. I hope this means good things.