Cuba & Haiti - A [recent] History of Failure & CONCACAF WCQ

[ZeekLTK]

Title could also be The Rise of St. Vincent/Grenadines but I thought this would attract more attention. Either way, let's begin:

Currently Cuba have the 8th highest FIFA rank in CONCACAF, and Haiti have the 11th.

Because of this, apparently, most people feel they are among the stronger sides in CONCACAF and should get "free" (or at least "easy") paths into the World Cup Qualifying Semifinal Round which currently holds 12 teams. A fair assumption I suppose, considering most people think the semifinals should have the top 12 teams in the confederation, and this certainly includes Cuba and Haiti - according to FIFA at least.

And most, if not everyone, has seen how Cuba and Haiti were eliminated from the 2006 semifinals (played in 2005 actually, but I'll just use the year of the World Cup to indicate which tournament I am talking about from here on out). If you missed it, Cuba played Costa Rica (currently ranked #3 in CONCACAF) and were eliminated on away goals, drawing 2-2 in Havana and 1-1 in Costa Rica for a 3-3 aggregate. Haiti weren't as close, only drawing one game against Jamaica (currently ranked #5 in CONCACAF) before losing 3-0 in Kingston and losing the aggregate 4-1.

So most people see this, that #11 had to play #5 and #8 had to play #3... and then look at Group C where St. Kitts & Nevis (currently ranked #15) played Barbados (currently ranked #12) while St. Vincent/Grenadines (currently ranked #16) played Nicaragua (currently ranked #18) and claim something is wrong!

But just wait a second... how many people know WHY these matchups took place?


Go all the way back to the 1994 World Cup Qualifying campaign.

In this tournament both Cuba and Haiti were given BYEs to the 2nd round of the Caribbean qualifying stage, because of their high rankings in the region. St. Vincent/Grenadines was one of the four lowest ranked teams, and had to play in the first round. St. Kitts & Nevis did not even participate!

In the first round St. Vincent/Grenadines defeated St. Lucia with a 3-2 aggregate score by winning 3-1 at home after losing 0-1 on the road. They moved on to the next round where they were drawn against none other than Cuba. Haiti was drawn against Bermuda.

In this second round, which was another aggregate system, Haiti failed to defeat Bermuda (currently ranked #21), losing out on away goals after drawing the aggregate 2-2 with a 2-1 victory at home and a 1-0 defeat on the road. Cuba, who probably could have beaten St. Vincent/Grenadines fairly easily, withdrew from the competition. Neither Haiti nor Cuba made it to the third round, while St. Vincent/Grenadines did.

St. Vincent/Grenadines went against Surinam (who had defeated Guyana in the second round) and managed a 2-1 aggregate win which put them into the semifinals (which was only 2 groups back then). There, they finally bowed out after being placed in a group with Mexico, Honduras, and Costa Rica. But they had earned a higher seed for future tournaments, and it was at Cuba's expense!

So 1998 rolls around. All three nations (Cuba, Haiti, and St. Vincent/Grenadines) get BYEs from the first round this time (Haiti and Cuba despite their failure in 1994). Also, St. Kitts & Nevis finally decides to participate. They draw Bahamas in the first round, but end up advancing without a match because Bahamas withdraws. In the second round Cuba draws Cayman Islands, Haiti draws Grenada, St. Vincent/Grenadines draws Puerto Rico, and St. Kitts & Nevis draws St. Lucia. All four win and advance.

In the next round the teams are seeded again, and since St. Vincent/Grenadines advanced far in the last tournament, they get the lowly seeded St. Kitts & Nevis. Cuba and Haiti, who each bowed out in the same round of 1994, draw each other. St. Vincent/Grenadines narrowly gets through with a 2-2 away goals win. Cuba defeats Haiti 7-2 over 2 legs. Both teams advance to the semifinals (which is now 3 groups), and even though they take last place in their groups, they have earned a higher seed for next time (or in St. Vincent/Grenadines' case, they have kept their high seed).

So now we go to 2002. Cuba draws a relatively easy group for being in the semifinals of 1998. The teams in their bracket are Cayman Islands, St. Lucia, Surinam, Aruba, Puerto Rico, Grenada, and Barbados. Cuba handles Cayman Islands in their first aggregate, then Surinam in the next. Advancing to the final match against Barbados. Winner goes to the semifinals, loser goes into a playoff against a "continental team" (Honduras, Guatemala, or Canada). Back to this later...

St. Vincent/Grenadines also earns a relatively easy group in 2002. They blow past US Virgin Islands 14-1 in the first round, then meet St. Kitts & Nevis again and don't need away goals this time, winning 3-1. They move on to their "group final" to face Antigua & Barbuda. Back to this later...

Now Haiti. They didn't reach the semifinals of 1998, so they get stuck in a tough group, with the other Caribbean semifinalist from 1998... Trinidad & Tobago. Haiti get past their first two rounds (Dominica and Bahamas) but end up against Trinidad & Tobago in the group final.

So, we have three group finals; Cuba is facing Barbados, St. Vincent/Grenadines vs Antigua & Barbuda, and Haiti vs Trinidad & Tobago. SVG, CUB, and T&T are the top seeds in their groups (because of 1998). St. Vincent/Grenadines takes care of A&B to advance to the semifinals while T&T disbatches Haiti. The final top seed, Cuba, doesn't do as well, and is upset by Barbados. So Barbados, St. Vincent/Grenadines, and Trinidad & Tobago all advance to the semifinals. Cuba, Haiti, and Antigua & Barbuda are forced into a playoff against Guatemala, Canada, and Honduras.

Cuba draws Canada, and loses 1-0 on aggregate. Haiti draws Honduras and loses 7-1. A&B also loses to Guatemala. So for the third World Cup in a row, St. Vincent/Grenadines has qualified for the semifinals, while Cuba has only made it once (1998) and Haiti hasn't made it at all.

At this point CONCACAF introduces "Pots" and sets up the tournament differently, so it's no longer a several round tournament for Caribbean sides to just reach the starting point of the continental sides (Cuba's matches against Canada were their 7th and 8th matches of the tournament, while they were Canada's 1st and 2nd). All semifinalists are placed into Pot C (those who didn't make the hex, like St. Vincent/Grenadines and Barbados), and those who aren't are placed in lower pots (Cuba and Haiti).

The set up is such that a team from Pot E will play Pot F in the first round, and then one of the seeded teams (Pots A, B, C) in the second round, with the winner of the second round going to the semifinals. There is a special stipulation for Pot D (Central American pot) where they do not have to play a first round match, and will only play a Pot C team in the second round.

St. Vincent/Grenadines and Barbados are each in Pot C, Cuba and Haiti are in Pot E. St. Vincent/Grenadines is lucky and draws a Pot D team, Nicaragua. Barbados draws one of the tougher Pot E teams, St. Kitts & Nevis. Cuba and Haiti each draw very easy Pot F teams in the first round (Cayman Islands and Turks & Caicos Islands). But Cuba draws a Pot A team in the second round (Costa Rica) and Haiti draws a Pot B team (Jamaica).

So now we are back to the part that everyone knows about. We have:

#8 Cuba vs #3 Costa Rica
#11 Haiti vs #5 Jamaica
#16 St. Vincent/Grenadines vs #18 Nicaragua
#12 Barbados vs #15 St. Kitts & Nevis

Just looking at that, something is wrong. But if you consider how each team got to this point... St. Vincent/Grenadines by reaching the CONCACAF semifinals three straight cycles in a row and Barbados by beating higher ranked Cuba in the previous tournament... it's not so surprising. And in fact, it's actually justified. St. Vincent/Grenadines were more successful in World Cup Qualifying for the past decade than Cuba and Haiti combined.

And I think we all know what happened. Cuba and Haiti, despite putting up good fights, were eliminated by the better (and higher seeded) teams. Meanwhile St. Vincent/Grenadines defeated Nicaragua and advanced to their fourth straight semifinal. St. Kitts & Nevis also upset Barbados to steal the semifinal spot that the Bajan Braves (Barbados' nickname) had taken from Cuba 4 years ago.


So, while the FIFA rankings may indicate something was wrong with the 2006 seedings, the past 3 World Cups indicate that nothing was wrong with the seedings, they were all deserved. Cuba and Haiti did nothing in the past decade to help avoid drawing such tough matches in such an early stage of the tournament, St. Vincent/Grenadines did.

In fact, if you really look at it, both Cuba and Haiti had numerous chances to avoid Costa Rica and Jamaica in 2006, but they continually shot themselves in the foot by losing in the early stages of the tournament and continually getting poor seeds. In fact, in 2002, Cuba and Haiti both had two chances to reach the semifinals (and get a seed to avoid their 2006 opponents) but they lost BOTH aggregates (Cuba to Barbados and Canada, Haiti to Trinidad & Tobago and Honduras).

So sorry, I feel no pity for either Cuba or Haiti being eliminated so early in the most recent World Cup. They had over a decade to put themselves in a better position and failed to do so. Hopefully this post will help others realize how many times they blew it, and how great of a job St. Vincent/Grenadines has done to continually reach the semifinals after being given the chance in 1994 with Cuba's withdrawl. That is a heck of an accomplishment, St. Vincent/Grenadines had a very small window of opportunity, back in 1994, and they are still reaping the rewards for taking advantage of it. Great job Vincy Heat! You've earned the "easy path" to the semifinals in 2010, no matter what anyone says.

[Gary V]

Good analysis, and repped accordingly.

The counter argument to this, of course, is that once you get onto the "easy street" path of CONCACAF qualifying, it is less difficult to stay in that position. Whereas it is more difficult for those "just missing" the boat to catch up.

I'm not sure what the CONCACAF qualifying schema should be. I like the current way much better than Africa, where there is no second chance - you blow your group, you're out. There's not enough slots in the WC to set up groups like Europe. Of course, can't do a complete round-robin like S Am. And a two-group final like Asia doesn't make sense with 3.5 WC slots.

CONCACAF is kinda stuck, having to protect the interests of the minnows and the also-rans. It's possible for Cuba and Haiti (and Canada, for that matter) to advance to the hex, but it's much harder. Unless you're willing to totally scrap the second-tier seedings, give only the previous hex participants an advantage.

Should CONCACAF get to the point where there are 4 (or more!) WC spots open, then the hex could be replaced by 2 quads. Two groups of 4, the top finisher in each group advances automatically, #2 vs #3 (cross-group) for the other two spots. Getting into the final 8 would open up the earlier qualifying rounds - I could see 4 groups of 4 in the semifinal round.

[X-Caper]

I have to agree with you both here, CONCACAF system is much better that the one-shot deal in Africa, lose a game or 2 there and your out. Asia, well, I just can't stand the asian conference, maybe that'll change with Austrailia there next time, but all-in-all, CONCACAF is an interresting wc qualifying system, definately one to talk about anyway. any wonders how they can change the Gold Cup? maybe playing it other countries like Mexico, or even the carribean? maybe that's for another thread.

[tomwilhelm]

Good analysis, and repped accordingly.

The counter argument to this, of course, is that once you get onto the "easy street" path of CONCACAF qualifying, it is less difficult to stay in that position. Whereas it is more difficult for those "just missing" the boat to catch up.

CONCACAF is kinda stuck, having to protect the interests of the minnows and the also-rans. It's possible for Cuba and Haiti (and Canada, for that matter) to advance to the hex, but it's much harder. Unless you're willing to totally scrap the second-tier seedings, give only the previous hex participants an advantage.

Should CONCACAF get to the point where there are 4 (or more!) WC spots open, then the hex could be replaced by 2 quads. Two groups of 4, the top finisher in each group advances automatically, #2 vs #3 (cross-group) for the other two spots. Getting into the final 8 would open up the earlier qualifying rounds - I could see 4 groups of 4 in the semifinal round.
Even with 3.5 spots, I like a 16 team, 4x4 group semi with an 8 team final group. That allows for the improvements shown by the middle tier concacaf sides to be rewarded without punishing the likes of StV/G or StK/N, who have earned a spot at the table.

Adding teams like Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Barbados, Cuba, and/or Haiti to the semi-final round does not mark a dramatic dropoff in talent and allows for a bigger final group, something I'm a strong proponent of. 6 teams playing for 3.5 spots is silly.

My suggestion:
Pot A (4)
USA, MEX, CR, T&T
Pot B (2)
Guatamala, Panama
Pot C (6)
Jamaica, El Salvador, Honduras, Canada, St. Vincent/Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis (semi-finalists)
Pot D (11)
Grenada, Bermuda, Haiti, St. Lucia, Cuba, Surinam, Antigua, Belize, Barbados, Dominica, Nicaragua
Pot E (11)
Last 11

1st Round:
Pot D v Pot E
11 Winners = Pot W

2nd Round:
Pot C (5 w/ 1 team drawing a bye)
Pot W (11)
8 Winners, 1 bye = Pot X
8 Losers drawn into home away knockout tournement w/ winner getting 16th spot in semi-finals.

Semi-finals:
Pot A (4)
Pot B (2)
Pox X (9, top 2 ranked teams placed in Pot B for draw)
Winner of consolation bracket (1)

4 groups of 4, top two in each advance to the final group: an OCTAGON.

You'd be likely to get groups that look something like this in the semis:
A: US, Panama, St. Kitts and Nevis, Cuba
B: Mexico, Honduras, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Nicaragua
C: Costa Rica, Jamaica, El Salvador, Barbados
D: T&T, Guatamala, Canada, Haiti

[Hank Rearden]

I think this thread is accurate, but my problem with CONCACAF's current WC qualifying system is the bye given to the Pot D teams (Belize and Nicaragua). Simply because they are located in Central America, they have one less match than the Carribean teams. Historically, neither has done well enough to justify an easier road to the finals than Cuba, Haiti, or even lesser Carribean teams like Grenada or Aruba.

Simply by eliminating the Pot D concept, Cuba and Haiti would get a better deal. I have no problem with rewarding surprise successes such as Barbados in 2002 and St. Kitts in 2006.

[Guatefc]

Even with 3.5 spots, I like a 16 team, 4x4 group semi with an 8 team final group. That allows for the improvements shown by the middle tier concacaf sides to be rewarded without punishing the likes of StV/G or StK/N, who have earned a spot at the table.

Adding teams like Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Barbados, Cuba, and/or Haiti to the semi-final round does not mark a dramatic dropoff in talent and allows for a bigger final group, something I'm a strong proponent of. 6 teams playing for 3.5 spots is silly.

My suggestion:
Pot A (4)
USA, MEX, CR, T&T
Pot B (2)
Guatamala, Panama
Pot C (6)
Jamaica, El Salvador, Honduras, Canada, St. Vincent/Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis (semi-finalists)
Pot D (11)
Grenada, Bermuda, Haiti, St. Lucia, Cuba, Surinam, Antigua, Belize, Barbados, Dominica, Nicaragua
Pot E (11)
Last 11

1st Round:
Pot D v Pot E
11 Winners = Pot W

2nd Round:
Pot C (5 w/ 1 team drawing a bye)
Pot W (11)
8 Winners, 1 bye = Pot X
8 Losers drawn into home away knockout tournement w/ winner getting 16th spot in semi-finals.

Semi-finals:
Pot A (4)
Pot B (2)
Pox X (9, top 2 ranked teams placed in Pot B for draw)
Winner of consolation bracket (1)

4 groups of 4, top two in each advance to the final group: an OCTAGON.

You'd be likely to get groups that look something like this in the semis:
A: US, Panama, St. Kitts and Nevis, Cuba
B: Mexico, Honduras, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Nicaragua
C: Costa Rica, Jamaica, El Salvador, Barbados
D: T&T, Guatamala, Canada, Haiti

so in this format the pot A ( top 4 in the last hex) would get a bye to the semis of 4 groups of 4??????

it would defiantly have lots of Caribbean teams put would it show the world our qualifying is legit and have strong teams???

[tomwilhelm]

so in this format the pot A ( top 4 in the last hex) would get a bye to the semis of 4 groups of 4??????

it would defiantly have lots of Caribbean teams put would it show the world our qualifying is legit and have strong teams???
I think that forcing the USA, Mexico and other Concacaf power to play in the preliminaries only serves to waste the top tier team's time and eliminates a team that would otherwise deserve the opportunity to continue to compete their way into the semis against teams of similar level.

I think the point of concacaf competitions at this point should be to improve our 4th-8th best teams, where the big competitive dropoff currently occurs. In order to do that we need to eliminate the absolute chaff quickly, then allow the following countries plenty of opportunity to develop and grow against one another:

Jamaica
T&T
St. Vincent/Grenadines
St. Kitts and Nevis
Cuba
Haiti
Barbados
Guatamala
Panama
Honduras
El Salvador
Nicaragua
Canada

What I'm throwing out there is essentially a "ladder" format, where you have teams in tier 1, 2, 3, etc... and the competion starts at the bottom 2 tiers and keeps adding 1 tier each level of competition. This gives opportunities for advancement to the next tier and keeps games more competitive by matching up more similarly skilled sides.

[IASocFan]

Tom, some good ideas. I copied and changed some of the numbers and teams.

Adding teams like Barbados, Cuba, and/or Haiti to the semi-final round will allow different and additional teams to make the semifinal round. I agree that 6 teams playing for 3.5 spots is silly. I'm not sure that the Octagon doesn't give too many key games with eliminated or already qualified teams in the last critical games (T&T-Mexico :)).

My suggestion:
Pot A (4)
USA, MEX, CR, T&T
Pot B (8)
Guatamala, Panama, Jamaica, El Salvador, Honduras, Canada, St. Vincent/Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis (losing finalist and semi-finalists)
Pot C (4)
Cuba, Haiti, Barbados, St. Lucia (next 4 by FIFA rank)
Pot D (5)
Grenada, Nicaragua, Surinam, Antigua, Bermuda (next 5 by FIFA rank)

Pot E (7)
Guyana,Netherlands Antilles, BVI, Dominca, Domincan Republic, Belize, Caymans (next 7 by FIFA rank)

Pot F (7)
Bahamas, Puerto Rico, USVI, Anguilla, Aruba, Montserrat, Turks & Caicos (last 7 by FIFA rank)

1st Round:
Pot E v Pot F (home and away)
7 Winners = Pot W

2nd Round:
Pots B and C v Pots D and W (home and away)

Semi-finals:
Pot A (4)
Pot B (4) - top 4 ranked teams from Round 2
Pot C (4) - next 4 ranked teams from Round 2
Pot D (4) - lowest 4 ranked teams from Round 2
Ranking can be by FIFA rank, ranked as seeded from above, or a combination of rankings.

4 groups of 4, top two in each advance to the final group: an OCTAGON.

[tomwilhelm]

I was desperately trying to avoid using FIFA rankings, but I totally understand the way you did it and really like the 4,8,4,5,7,7 breakdown. Obviously Rounds 1 and 2 are much more straightforward using your system. Good stuff.

[JG]

In the next round the teams are seeded again, and since St. Vincent/Grenadines advanced far in the last tournament

Actually...I think they were seeded based on their qualification for the 1996 Gold Cup, rather than the previous WCQ campaign. Haiti was also seeded for this round (because they qualified for the 1974 World Cup!), but was the unfortunate team that drew unseeded Cuba.

Interestingly, St. Vincent qualified for the 1996 GC by upsetting Cuba 3-2 in the semifinals of the Caribbean Cup the previous year. The problem is that they're still getting easy draws because of that one win 10 years ago...by basing the seeds on previous WCQ results, they become self-perpetuating. SVG doesn't have to beat anyone decent to keep their seeding. It ought to be set up so the weakest seeded teams play the strongest unseeded teams.

[tomwilhelm]

Actually...I think they were seeded based on their qualification for the 1996 Gold Cup, rather than the previous WCQ campaign. Haiti was also seeded for this round (because they qualified for the 1974 World Cup!), but was the unfortunate team that drew unseeded Cuba.

Interestingly, St. Vincent qualified for the 1996 GC by upsetting Cuba 3-2 in the semifinals of the Caribbean Cup the previous year. The problem is that they're still getting easy draws because of that one win 10 years ago...by basing the seeds on previous WCQ results, they become self-perpetuating. SVG doesn't have to beat anyone decent to keep their seeding. It ought to be set up so the weakest seeded teams play the strongest unseeded teams.
Agreed. How about this slight modification of IASocFan's system that bases position in Pots entirely upon the last results and deals with the self-perpetuation problem by filling in the Round 2 in the way you describe.

Pot A (4): WC Qualifiers
Pot B (4): Finalists
Pot C (8): Semi-finalists
Pot D (5): Top 5 non-semifinalists (method tbd)
Pot E (7): Next 7
Pot F (7): Last 7

Round 1: E v F
7 losers become next qualifier's Pot 7

Round 2:
Games 1-4: Pot B v Pot E/F (all of Pot B teams paired with a Pot E/F team)
Games 5-9: Pot D v Pot C (all of Pot D teams paired with a Pot C team)
Games 10-12: Pot C v Pot D (remaining 3 Pot C teams paired with remaining 3 E/F teams)
12 Losers become Pots D and E for next round of qualifying

Semi-finals and finals as described.

[ZeekLTK]

Actually...I think they were seeded based on their qualification for the 1996 Gold Cup, rather than the previous WCQ campaign. Haiti was also seeded for this round (because they qualified for the 1974 World Cup!), but was the unfortunate team that drew unseeded Cuba.

Interestingly, St. Vincent qualified for the 1996 GC by upsetting Cuba 3-2 in the semifinals of the Caribbean Cup the previous year. The problem is that they're still getting easy draws because of that one win 10 years ago...by basing the seeds on previous WCQ results, they become self-perpetuating. SVG doesn't have to beat anyone decent to keep their seeding. It ought to be set up so the weakest seeded teams play the strongest unseeded teams.

While that is true, that it is easier to keep the spot than take it, I don't necessarily agree that the "weakest seed should play the strongest seed". If that is the case then we are going to end up with a tournament like NCAA College basketball where we have a very small "preliminary round" to narrow the field to 32 from 35 and then have like (based on FIFA rankings now) #1 Mexico vs #32 Anguilla with the winner taking on the winner of #16 St. Vincent/Grenadines vs #17 Grenada, etc. I think that's taking it a little too far for qualifying. At this point teams need a little luck as well as skill to get through, which I think is a great element for qualifying, because it is a main element in the actual World Cup Finals that each team is trying to reach.


I do agree with one thing though, which I have argued against since the 2006 qualifying campaign started in 2004... Pot D is ridiculous. What has Central America done to earn first round BYEs for ALL of its teams? Belize and Nicaragua (the Pot D teams) managed to lose 14-3 in their combined aggregates against Pot C opposition. IMO the FIFA rankings are right for this one, both Pot D teams are only "average" compared to the Pot E teams, so there should be no distinction made between them.


IMO, Pot D for 2010 should simply be the highest (or top 2 if Puerto Rico doesn't participate again) ranked team(s) who didn't make it to Pots A, B, or C. Then those teams will get slightly easier draws, since they can only be drawn against Pot C for the second round... but this only gives them a *chance* to get an 'easier' match. Remember, there are some monsters sitting in 2010's Pot C named Jamaica and Honduras. :D

[Guatefc]

While that is true, that it is easier to keep the spot than take it, I don't necessarily agree that the "weakest seed should play the strongest seed". If that is the case then we are going to end up with a tournament like NCAA College basketball where we have a very small "preliminary round" to narrow the field to 32 from 35 and then have like (based on FIFA rankings now) #1 Mexico vs #32 Anguilla with the winner taking on the winner of #16 St. Vincent/Grenadines vs #17 Grenada, etc. I think that's taking it a little too far for qualifying. At this point teams need a little luck as well as skill to get through, which I think is a great element for qualifying, because it is a main element in the actual World Cup Finals that each team is trying to reach.


I do agree with one thing though, which I have argued against since the 2006 qualifying campaign started in 2004... Pot D is ridiculous. What has Central America done to earn first round BYEs for ALL of its teams? Belize and Nicaragua (the Pot D teams) managed to lose 14-3 in their combined aggregates against Pot C opposition. IMO the FIFA rankings are right for this one, both Pot D teams are only "average" compared to the Pot E teams, so there should be no distinction made between them.


IMO, Pot D for 2010 should simply be the highest (or top 2 if Puerto Rico doesn't participate again) ranked team(s) who didn't make it to Pots A, B, or C. Then those teams will get slightly easier draws, since they can only be drawn against Pot C for the second round... but this only gives them a *chance* to get an 'easier' match. Remember, there are some monsters sitting in 2010's Pot C named Jamaica and Honduras. :D

in the name every thing holy please no, ncca style seeding would suck big
it would be easier to weed out weaker teams , but it would confuse the crap out of me

PR looks like they want to improve they have set up lots of friendlies of late

[JG]

If that is the case then we are going to end up with a tournament like NCAA College basketball where we have a very small "preliminary round" to narrow the field to 32 from 35 and then have like (based on FIFA rankings now) #1 Mexico vs #32 Anguilla with the winner taking on the winner of #16 St. Vincent/Grenadines vs #17 Grenada, etc.

I'm not proposing that at all...for the preliminary rounds just split up the seeded and unseeded teams into pots based on their rankings, and draw the teams from the weakest seeded pot against the teams from the strongest unseeded pot. That's the only change.

IMO, Pot D for 2010 should simply be the highest (or top 2 if Puerto Rico doesn't participate again) ranked team(s) who didn't make it to Pots A, B, or C. Then those teams will get slightly easier draws, since they can only be drawn against Pot C for the second round... but this only gives them a *chance* to get an 'easier' match. Remember, there are some monsters sitting in 2010's Pot C named Jamaica and Honduras.

That's more like it, but there's still only a 33% chance of a weak seeded team being matched against a top unseeded team...IMO there should be a pot with the three lowest-ranked seeded teams, and they should be drawn against the three highest-ranked unseeded teams.

[EvanJ]

tomwilhelm/IASocFan's proposal would require too many games. If that proposal was used CONCACAF would need to start qualifying in late 2007 (like how other confederations started qualifying in late 2003). The semifinal and final rounds would require a combined 20 games. With a limit of 10 games a year (keep in mind a possible interconfederational playoff in late 2009), the field would need to be reduced to 16 by the end of 2007 to implement that proposal.

[midknight]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to ZeekLTK again.:o

[Flyin Ryan]

I think this thread is accurate, but my problem with CONCACAF's current WC qualifying system is the bye given to the Pot D teams (Belize and Nicaragua). Simply because they are located in Central America, they have one less match than the Carribean teams. Historically, neither has done well enough to justify an easier road to the finals than Cuba, Haiti, or even lesser Carribean teams like Grenada or Aruba.

Simply by eliminating the Pot D concept, Cuba and Haiti would get a better deal. I have no problem with rewarding surprise successes such as Barbados in 2002 and St. Kitts in 2006.

Well, half this problem will be eliminated if they use the same qualifying structure for 2010, as there would only be one Pot D team due to Puerto Rico.

[jkdd77]

tomwilhelm/IASocFan's proposal would require too many games. If that proposal was used CONCACAF would need to start qualifying in late 2007 (like how other confederations started qualifying in late 2003). The semifinal and final rounds would require a combined 20 games. With a limit of 10 games a year (keep in mind a possible interconfederational playoff in late 2009), the field would need to be reduced to 16 by the end of 2007 to implement that proposal.

But it could work if you replaced the semi-final round with a two-legged knock-out round, just as US and Mexico had to come through a preliminary round to reach the semi-final in 2006.

This would reduce the number of games played by four for each octangonal qualifier.

(based on IASocFan's proposal and seedings)

Third Round: (16 teams -> 8 teams)
Pot A (4 teams) vs Pot D (4 teams)
Pot B (4 teams) vs Pot C (4 teams)

where Pot A = Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago
Pot B = winners of 2nd round matches involving Guatamala, Panama, Jamaica and El Salvador
Pot C = winners of 2nd round matches involving Honduras, Canada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and St. Kitts and Nevis
Pot D = winners of 2nd round matches involving Cuba, Haiti, Barbados, and St. Lucia

This would make the schedule more compact, and the big countries should still win through fairly easily, whilst the sole group stage (the octagonal) would hopefully not involve mismatches against the likes of St. Kitts and Nevis. Having 8 countries chasing 3.5 places seems to be a better ratio than 6 countries chasing 3.5 places, and the extra teams should still be fairly competitive.

[Edgar]

To quote Peter Goldstein from PlanetWorldCup.com:

One potential problem still remains: in the round of 24, you'll need careful seeding to maintain a fair draw. Remember, the 12 semifinalists from the previous cycle cover a very wide talent range, from top-class Mexico, USA, and Costa Rica to very ordinary Panama, Barbados, and St. Vincent. If those 12 go into one pot, and the 10 knockout winners plus Nicaragua and Belize go into another, there will be considerable inequality in the draw. A team like Haiti could get matched against the USA, or against Barbados--a big big difference to the Haitians. So I hope there's a seeding system, based either on FIFA rankings or competitive results, which assures that the best of the first round survivors don't have to play the superpowers.

My first proposal (see here (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?p=7141134#post7141134)), ignored by everyone :D, was to have a tennis-like system, where the top ranking teams will play the lowest ranked team, the 2nd team in the in rankings will play the 2nd from bottom etc. But, as ZeekLTK said, that's taking it a little too far.

Instead of top vs. bottom, there could be 4 pots for each knock-out stage of the qualifying competition. Teams from pot 1 (top teams) will play against teams from pot 4 (the minnows), and teams from pot 2 will play against teams from pot 3.

For example purposes, I will assume the outcome of matches/groups are based on the FIFA rankings.

First round

The lowest ranked 22 teams.
Pots 1 and 4 with 5 teams, pots 2 and 3 with 6 teams (or a similar system):

Pot 1: Bermuda, Surinam, Nicaragua, Haiti, Barbados
Pot 2: Grenada, Neterlands Antilles, Dominican Republic, St. Lucia, Belize, Dominica
Pot 3: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Anguilla, Cayman Islands, Guyana, Turks and Caicos Islands
Pot 4: Aruba, British Virgin Islands, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Puerto Rico

Pot 1 vs Pot 4, Pot 2 vs Pot 3

Second round

Highest ranked 13 teams + 11 winners from the first round.
4 pots of 6 teams each. Pot 1 vs Pot 4, Pot 2 vs Pot 3

Pot 1: USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guatemala, Panama
Pot 2: Honduras, Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Canada, El Salvador, St. Kitts and Nevis
Pot 3: Cuba, Bermuda, Surinam, Nicaragua, Haiti, Barbados
Pot 4: Grenada, Dominican Republic, St. Lucia, Belize, Antigua and Barbuda, Guyana

Semifinal round

12 winners from the previous round
3 groups of 4 teams

Group 1 will contain teams ranked 1st, 6th, 7th and 12th.
Group 2 will contain teams ranked 2nd, 5th, 8th and 11th
Group 3 will contain teams ranked 3rd, 4th, 9th and 10th

USA
Mexico
Costa Rica
Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala
Panama
Honduras
Jamaica
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Canada
El Salvador
Cuba

Group 1: USA (8), Panama (78), Honduras (41), Cuba (75)
Group 2: Mexico (5), Guatemala (56), Jamaica (42), El Salvador (124)
Group 3: Costa Rica (21), Trinidad and Tobago (50), St. Vincent and the Grenadines (130), Canada (84)

Final round

Winners and runners-up from the semifinal round

USA
Mexico
Costa Rica
Honduras
Jamaica
Trinidad and Tobago

[Panofoot]

I saw the initial post on a Haitian forum (sakapfet) and I could not resist replying to the analysis. I just joined BigSoccer.

First congratulation to to SV&G and Barbados for their success in WC Qualifiers. But I need you guys to know that Haiti has not been playing to even half of their potential. 80% is due to socio-political crisis and the other 20% is due to poor administrative structure. The Haitian Football Federation and players should be considered heroes for operating in such conditions. Their presence in international soccer clearly demonstrate their passion for the game. If Haiti had half the administrative structure that Jamaica has and 10% of the budget of the USA this team would be a major threat in the region. Unfortunately, the situation in Haiti seems to get worst every year and there's no telling when things will get better.