possiblity of all teams going 0-3-0

[roma/totti]

i think its very possible any thoughts?

[LeeS]

I think its reasonably unlikely.

Lee

[Reycd]

nope.. the US is bound to lose to someone

[ebbro]

i think its very possible any thoughts?

If by "very possible" you mean 1 in 729 chance, you're right. Otherwise, not very likely.

[Maximum Optimal]

If by "very possible" you mean 1 in 729 chance, you're right. Otherwise, not very likely.

More like 1 out of 100,000. But still possible.

[Franchise]

I would be surprised. The Ghanaian team is much weaker than people seem to believe. Two midfielders do not a team make. I wouldn't be surprised if they get a tie or two. Three would be very surprising. (So would a win.)

[ebbro]

More like 1 out of 100,000. But still possible.

There are 6 games with three possible outcomes in each game. The chance of a tie in one game is 1/3. So, 1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3=1/729.

[MikeLastort2]

There are 6 games with three possible outcomes in each game. The chance of a tie in one game is 1/3. So, 1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3=1/729.

Using that logic, the odds of every team winning all three games is 1/729. Therefore, the following scenario will happen 1 out of 729 times:

Ghana beats Italy, Ghana beats Czech Republic, Ghana beats USA.
Italy beats Ghana, Italy beats USA, Italy beats Czech Republic.
USA beats Czech Republic, USA beats Italy, USA beats Ghana.
Czech Republic beats USA, Czech Republic beats Ghana, Czech Republic beats Italy.

By the same token, the odds of every team losing all three games is 1/729. Therefore, the following scenario will happen 1 out of 729 times:

Ghana loses to Italy, Ghana loses to Czech Republic, Ghana loses to USA.
Italy loses to Ghana, Italy loses to USA, Italy loses to Czech Republic.
USA loses to Czech Republic, USA loses to Italy, USA loses to Ghana.
Czech Republic loses to USA, Czech Republic loses to Ghana, Czech Republic loses to Italy.

This isn't the Group Of Death. It's the Group Of Schroedinger's Cat.

:D

[ebbro]

Using that logic, the odds of every team winning all three games is 1/729. Therefore, the following scenario will happen 1 out of 729 times:

Ghana beats Italy, Ghana beats Czech Republic, Ghana beats USA.
Italy beats Ghana, Italy beats USA, Italy beats Czech Republic.
USA beats Czech Republic, USA beats Italy, USA beats Ghana.
Czech Republic beats USA, Czech Republic beats Ghana, Czech Republic beats Italy.

By the same token, the odds of every team losing all three games is 1/729. Therefore, the following scenario will happen 1 out of 729 times:

Ghana loses to Italy, Ghana loses to Czech Republic, Ghana loses to USA.
Italy loses to Ghana, Italy loses to USA, Italy loses to Czech Republic.
USA loses to Czech Republic, USA loses to Italy, USA loses to Ghana.
Czech Republic loses to USA, Czech Republic loses to Ghana, Czech Republic loses to Italy.

This isn't the Group Of Death. It's the Group Of Schroedinger's Cat.

:D

Uh no. Both teams winning and both teams losing are not options. If they were, there would be 5 possible outcomes for each game. There are only three possible outcomes - team 1 wins and team 2 loses, team 2 wins and team 1 loses, or a draw. Let's just take the first two games. By my "logic" (some would call it math) I would say there are 1/3*1/3=1/9 chance of both games ending in a draw. Let's see...

Game 1 possibilities:
Ghana win/ Italy lose
Italy win/ Ghana lose
Italy Ghana draw

Game 2 possibilities:
CR win/ US lose
US win/ CR lose
CR US draw

Combined possibilities:
G win I lose + CR win/ US lose
G win I lose + US win/ CR lose
G win I lose + CR US draw
I win G lose + CR win/ US lose
I win G lose + US win/ CR lose
I win G lose + CR US draw
G I draw + CR win/ US lose
G I draw + US win/ CR lose
G I draw + CR US draw

There were nine possible outcomes, but only 1 with both games ending in a draw (and no both teams winning/ both losing). I'll let you continue out to 6 games if you still need to.

[Fotbollelivet]

Your logic is flawed. With two teams of fairly even strength the chance of a draw is more than 1/3 since whenever one team is up the other will increase their offensive effort in order to equalize.

With two teams of unequal power the chance of a draw or loss for the better team is for self explanatory reasons less than that of a win.

Mathematics is not about numbers, it's about reason. ;)

[MikeLastort2]

Uh no. Both teams winning and both teams losing are not options. If they were, there would be 5 possible outcomes for each game. There are only three possible outcomes - team 1 wins and team 2 loses, team 2 wins and team 1 loses, or a draw. Let's just take the first two games. By my "logic" (some would call it math) I would say there are 1/3*1/3=1/9 chance of both games ending in a draw. Let's see...

Game 1 possibilities:
Ghana win/ Italy lose
Italy win/ Ghana lose
Italy Ghana draw

Game 2 possibilities:
CR win/ US lose
US win/ CR lose
CR US draw

Combined possibilities:
G win I lose + CR win/ US lose
G win I lose + US win/ CR lose
G win I lose + CR US draw
I win G lose + CR win/ US lose
I win G lose + US win/ CR lose
I win G lose + CR US draw
G I draw + CR win/ US lose
G I draw + US win/ CR lose
G I draw + CR US draw

There were nine possible outcomes, but only 1 with both games ending in a draw (and no both teams winning/ both losing). I'll let you continue out to 6 games if you still need to.

1. I guess you missed my :D
2. Your basic premise is flawed.

[Chicago1871]

Uh no. Both teams winning and both teams losing are not options. If they were, there would be 5 possible outcomes for each game. There are only three possible outcomes - team 1 wins and team 2 loses, team 2 wins and team 1 loses, or a draw. Let's just take the first two games. By my "logic" (some would call it math) I would say there are 1/3*1/3=1/9 chance of both games ending in a draw. Let's see...

There were nine possible outcomes, but only 1 with both games ending in a draw (and no both teams winning/ both losing). I'll let you continue out to 6 games if you still need to.
That buzzing sound you just heard was the joke just going over your head Scooter.

[ebbro]

That buzzing sound you just heard was the joke just going over your head Scooter.

The reference to Schroedinger's Cat was not lost on me (the cat is alive, the cat is dead, all teams win, all teams lose), but the basis for the joke was supposedly that my logic allowed for all teams winning and losing, which it did not. Therefore I felt the need to explain as obviously that fact was lost on Mike.

Simply I was saying there are 729 possible outcomes and all three teams tying was one of them. I made the mistake though to tie this to the odds of it actually happening, which is not necessarily true as pointed out by Fotbollelivet, although in this group I do not see it so unreasonable that the odds might be fairly even for each game to go in any direction.

[Bigrose30]

In actuality, Schroedinger's point with his Cat experiment was not to show that the cat was both dead and alive, but rather to show that the very concept of the cat being both dead and alive was absurd when dealing with everyday 'macro' reality.

In essence, the cat both proves and disproves both your points.

Irony? :cool:

[ebbro]

In actuality, Schroedinger's point with his Cat experiment was not to show that the cat was both dead and alive, but rather to show that the very concept of the cat being both dead and alive was absurd when dealing with everyday 'macro' reality.

In essence, the cat both proves and disproves both your points.

Irony? :cool:

I understand that was not the point of the experiment. And I had one point. Anyway, I took the :D to only refer to the Schroedinger's Cat part, maybe it was meant for the whole post. If not, there's no reason to say my logic allowed for all teams winning/ losing.

[Bigrose30]

I understand that was not the point of the experiment. And I had one point. Anyway, I took the :D to only refer to the Schroedinger's Cat part, maybe it was meant for the whole post. If not, there's no reason to say my logic allowed for all teams winning/ losing.

I meant your point and the other posters' point.

But anyway, it was all in fun. Just wanted to get something out of my college education...it seems I never do at work.

[Stan Collins]

Your logic is flawed. With two teams of fairly even strength the chance of a draw is more than 1/3 since whenever one team is up the other will increase their offensive effort in order to equalize.

With two teams of unequal power the chance of a draw or loss for the better team is for self explanatory reasons less than that of a win.

Mathematics is not about numbers, it's about reason. ;) Yes, in MLS last year, a league with rather high parity, draws were only 22.9 percent of games, about 4.5:1. This would suggest the actual odds are probably less than 1 in 7000.

[MarioKempes]

Yes, in MLS last year, a league with rather high parity, draws were only 22.9 percent of games, about 4.5:1. This would suggest the actual odds are probably less than 1 in 7000.

Yes, (.229)^6 x 100% = 0.01442%, or about 1/7000 as Herr Collins correctly states. However, I'm thinking it is far more likely to happen in the group stages of the WC, so let's say 1/3000 for the sake of argument.

That's still about the same odds as Josh Wolff scoring the winning goal in the WC final. Ain't gonna happen.

[fatbastard]

That's still about the same odds as Josh Wolff scoring the winning goal in the WC final. Ain't gonna happen.50%
He either will or he won't
I break almost all statistics down to this, especially those on bigsoccer :D

[Jay510]

you know 78.4% of statistic are made up on the spot.