What if 16 were seeded?

[eastex]

Forgive me if this has been posted before, but I haven't seen a discussion on it. What if 16 teams were seeded? Draw 1-8 into their own groups, then place 9-16 accordingly. 16 goes into a group with 1, etc. The rest would be drawn as they are now.

I haven't really thought this through, so tell me why it wouldn't work. I guess this could be a way to lower the chances "group of death" scenerio (although the group with 8 and 9 would probably be pretty tough). Do you guys think something like this would make the draw more balanced? Would a more balanced draw make the WC better or worse?

[MRschizoid21]

I like it a lot.

BUT - thinking about it, seeding all the teams would be even better.

[Dadinho]

If you were to seed 16 or all 32 teams you'd also have to scrap many of the rules involved with the current draws.

For example, you would have to allow for non-european teams to be grouped with others from their own confederation.

[MRschizoid21]

If you were to seed 16 or all 32 teams you'd also have to scrap many of the rules involved with the current draws.

For example, you would have to allow for non-european teams to be grouped with others from their own confederation.

I would like that very much. It stops too many different possibilities.

[eastex]

If you were to seed 16 or all 32 teams you'd also have to scrap many of the rules involved with the current draws.

For example, you would have to allow for non-european teams to be grouped with others from their own confederation.

Yeah. That's true. I guess FIFA would have to lower the emphasis on geographically diverse groups.

[eastex]

I like it a lot.

BUT - thinking about it, seeding all the teams would be even better.

That would be awesome if FIFA could find a way to make it work.

[kevbrunton]

Actually, I think you could get your geographic diversity and still seed all the teams...

Here's the 2006 Seeding Table (http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eu.download.yahoo.com/fifa/fu/finaldrawpot1.pdf)

Pot 1 - Brazil, England, Spain, Germany, Mexico, France, Argentina, Italy
Pot 2 - USA, Netherlands, South Korea, Japan, Sweden, Croatia, Paraguay, Czech Republic
Pot 3 - Portugal, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Iran, Tunisia, Ecuador, Serbia
Pot 4 - Switzerland, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Australia, Trinidad, Ghana, Angola, Togo


Suppose the draw from the first pot goes just like it did...

Group A - Germany
Group B - England
Group C - Argentina
Group D - Mexico
Group E - Italy
Group F - Brazil
Group G - France
Group H - Spain

Then from Pot 2 - the rules are that USA can't go into D, Paraguay can't go into C or F - btw, I did this mock draw using a random number generator - not preselecting anything.

First draw, Czech Rep - goes into Group A
Next, Paraguay - goes into Group B
Next, Croatia - goes into Group C
Next, South Korea - goes into Group D
Next, Netherlands - goes into Group E
Next, Japan - goes into Group F
Next, Sweden - goes into Group G
Finally, USA - goes into Group H

So now we have...

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic
Group B - England, Paraguay
Group C - Argentina, Croatia
Group D - Mexico, South Korea
Group E - Italy, Netherlands
Group F - Brazil, Japan
Group G - France, Sweden
Group H - Spain, USA

Then the Pot 3 draw - at this point, Costa Rica cannot go into Groups D or H. Saudi Arabia & Iran cannot go into groups D or F. Ecuador cannot go into groups B, C or F. Finally, Groups A, E & G already have 2 European teams, so Portugal, Poland Serbia cannot be drawn into them.

So, now the draw...

First draw, Costa Rica - goes to Group A
Next, Saudia Arabia - goes to Group B
Next, Iran - goes to Group C
Next, Poland - goes to Group D
Next, Portugal - they can't go in E - so they go to Group F
Next, Tunisia - goes into Group E
At this point, Serbia can only go into Group H
So Ecuador goes into Group G

So after Pot 3 is drawn, we have the following...

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica
Group B - England, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia
Group C - Argentina, Croatia, Iran
Group D - Mexico, South Korea, Poland
Group E - Italy, Netherlands, Tunisia
Group F - Brazil, Japan, Portugal
Group G - France, Sweden, Ecuador
Group H - Spain, USA, Serbia

Now, Pot 4 - Switzerland & Ukraine can only go in Groups C, D or F. Trinidad & Tobago can't go in Groups A, D or H. African teams can't go in E.

Now the draw...

First draw, Ghana - goes into Group A
Next, Ivory Coast - goes into Group B
Next, Trinidad & Tobago - goes into Group C
Next, Australia - since we have 2 Euro teams left and only 2 pots to put them into, Australia cannot go into D. Australia gets put into Group E
Next, Switzerland - goes into Group D
Next, Ukraine - goes into Group F
Next, Angola - goes into Group G
Finally, Togo - goes into Group H

And we wind up with ...

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Ghana
Group B - England, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast
Group C - Argentina, Croatia, Iran, Trinidad & Tobago
Group D - Mexico, South Korea, Poland, Switzerland
Group E - Italy, Netherlands, Tunisia, Australia
Group F - Brazil, Japan, Portugal, Ukraine
Group G - France, Sweden, Ecuador, Angola
Group H - Spain, USA, Serbia, Togo

So whether you agree with their seeding formula or not - you can seed all 32 teams and still achieve the geographic balance desired.

[eastex]

Actually, I think you could get your geographic diversity and still seed all the teams...

Here's the 2006 Seeding Table (http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eu.download.yahoo.com/fifa/fu/finaldrawpot1.pdf)

Pot 1 - Brazil, England, Spain, Germany, Mexico, France, Argentina, Italy
Pot 2 - USA, Netherlands, South Korea, Japan, Sweden, Croatia, Paraguay, Czech Republic
Pot 3 - Portugal, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Iran, Tunisia, Ecuador, Serbia
Pot 4 - Switzerland, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Australia, Trinidad, Ghana, Angola, Togo


Suppose the draw from the first pot goes just like it did...

Group A - Germany
Group B - England
Group C - Argentina
Group D - Mexico
Group E - Italy
Group F - Brazil
Group G - France
Group H - Spain

Then from Pot 2 - the rules are that USA can't go into D, Paraguay can't go into C or F - btw, I did this mock draw using a random number generator - not preselecting anything.

First draw, Czech Rep - goes into Group A
Next, Paraguay - goes into Group B
Next, Croatia - goes into Group C
Next, South Korea - goes into Group D
Next, Netherlands - goes into Group E
Next, Japan - goes into Group F
Next, Sweden - goes into Group G
Finally, USA - goes into Group H

So now we have...

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic
Group B - England, Paraguay
Group C - Argentina, Croatia
Group D - Mexico, South Korea
Group E - Italy, Netherlands
Group F - Brazil, Japan
Group G - France, Sweden
Group H - Spain, USA

Then the Pot 3 draw - at this point, Costa Rica cannot go into Groups D or H. Saudi Arabia & Iran cannot go into groups D or F. Ecuador cannot go into groups B, C or F. Finally, Groups A, E & G already have 2 European teams, so Portugal, Poland Serbia cannot be drawn into them.

So, now the draw...

First draw, Costa Rica - goes to Group A
Next, Saudia Arabia - goes to Group B
Next, Iran - goes to Group C
Next, Poland - goes to Group D
Next, Portugal - they can't go in E - so they go to Group F
Next, Tunisia - goes into Group E
At this point, Serbia can only go into Group H
So Ecuador goes into Group G

So after Pot 3 is drawn, we have the following...

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica
Group B - England, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia
Group C - Argentina, Croatia, Iran
Group D - Mexico, South Korea, Poland
Group E - Italy, Netherlands, Tunisia
Group F - Brazil, Japan, Portugal
Group G - France, Sweden, Ecuador
Group H - Spain, USA, Serbia

Now, Pot 4 - Switzerland & Ukraine can only go in Groups C, D or F. Trinidad & Tobago can't go in Groups A, D or H. African teams can't go in E.

Now the draw...

First draw, Ghana - goes into Group A
Next, Ivory Coast - goes into Group B
Next, Trinidad & Tobago - goes into Group C
Next, Australia - since we have 2 Euro teams left and only 2 pots to put them into, Australia cannot go into D. Australia gets put into Group E
Next, Switzerland - goes into Group D
Next, Ukraine - goes into Group F
Next, Angola - goes into Group G
Finally, Togo - goes into Group H

And we wind up with ...

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Ghana
Group B - England, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast
Group C - Argentina, Croatia, Iran, Trinidad & Tobago
Group D - Mexico, South Korea, Poland, Switzerland
Group E - Italy, Netherlands, Tunisia, Australia
Group F - Brazil, Japan, Portugal, Ukraine
Group G - France, Sweden, Ecuador, Angola
Group H - Spain, USA, Serbia, Togo

So whether you agree with their seeding formula or not - you can seed all 32 teams and still achieve the geographic balance desired.

That would be a pretty balanced group stage. This type of system would reward teams like Japan, USA, South Korea, Netherlands, etc. for good performance (though not good enough to warrant a top 8 seed). It would also ensure that each of the top 8 seeds has at least one serious challenger to win the group. It kind of bothers me that France and Spain have a cakewalk in the WC 06 group stage, just because they were seeded in the top 8 and were lucky in the draw. I'm not arguing that they shouldn't be seeded, just that they should face tougher competition (on paper) than Argentina in the group stage based on their lower relative seeds.

I'm glad somebody smarter (and more motivated) than me added to this discussion. Thanks.

(edit) I'm an idiot - France and Spain are not seeded lower relative to Argentina. Hopefully you still get the point I was trying to make: higher seed should = easier (on paper) draw.

[Cannon]

Balanced draw...except for the fact that Germany could easily be out in the group stage. Not a chance FIFA allows that.

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Ghana
vs.
Real draw: Germany, Poland, Costa Rica, Ecuador

I'd sure rather have the real draw.
Czech > Poland
Ghana > Ecuador

Haven't really thought about it but perhaps 16 seeded = harder to fix the draw. Every seed would have to get a top 16 team.

[eastex]

Balanced draw...except for the fact that Germany could easily be out in the group stage. Not a chance FIFA allows that.

Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Ghana
vs.
Real draw: Germany, Poland, Costa Rica, Ecuador

I'd sure rather have the real draw.
Czech > Poland
Ghana > Ecuador

Haven't really thought about it but perhaps 16 seeded = harder to fix the draw. Every seed would have to get a top 16 team.

You're right - the host nation (even if they are seeded top 8) could be put in a very tough group. I would agree that it makes the tournament better when the host nation does well, but I wonder if this should be done at the expense of overall balance.

[EvanJ]

Considering the draw kevbrunton did for the United States, I wish 16 teams were seeded. It also supports my belief that the real Group E is harder than Group C because the real Group C could have been drawn using kevbrunton's method but the real Group E has three of the top sixteen and could not have been drawn using kevbrunton's method. I gave kevbrunton good rep.

[voiceoflg]

I know using FIFA's ranking will draw some scoffs. But in the absence of something better and quicker, I will use that.

Using the same seeds FIFA did, but ranking them in order 1-8 as they appear on FIFA's ranking, then filling out the rest 9-32 also in order that they appear here (http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-Nov-2005,00.html), this is what I came up with. No geographic rules and no random draw were used.

1 Brazil
32 Angola
16 Croatia
17 Costa Rica

8 Germany
25 Ukraine
9 Czech Republic
24 Ecuador

4 Spain
29 Ghana
13 Sweden
20 Korea Republic

5 Mexico
28 Australia
12 Portugal
21 Paraguay

2 Argentina
31 Togo
15 Iran
18 Poland

7 Italy
26 Cote d' Ivoire
10 Netherlands
23 Switzerland

3 France
30 Trinidad and Tobago
14 Japan
19 Tunisia

6 England
27 Serbia-Montenegro
11 United States
22 Saudi Arabia

Feel free to dissect it.

[kevbrunton]

I know using FIFA's ranking will draw some scoffs. But in the absence of something better and quicker, I will use that.

Using the same seeds FIFA did, but ranking them in order 1-8 as they appear on FIFA's ranking, then filling out the rest 9-32 also in order that they appear here (http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-Nov-2005,00.html), this is what I came up with. No geographic rules and no random draw were used.
Your premise is fine - just seed them 1-32 - but why use the static FIFA rankings. Just use the same mechanism that FIFA used to seed them. They ranked all 32 teams here (http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eu.download.yahoo.com/fifa/fu/finaldrawpot1.pdf). Also, I'd group them teams according to the following groupings...

1, 16, 24, 25
2, 15, 23, 26
3, 14, 22, 27
4, 13, 21, 28
5, 12, 20, 29
6, 11, 19, 30
7, 10, 18, 31
8, 9, 17, 32

This balances the groups better than the way you laid it out.

You'd wind up with the following groups. Note, the teams have been put in these groups to properly match up 1v8, 2v7, etc. should those teams all survive to the quarterfinals.

Group A - Germany, Sweden, Iran, Australia
Group B - England, Paraguay, Ecuador, Ukraine
Group C - Mexico, Japan, Poland, Trinidad and Tobago
Group D - Argentina, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Angola
Group E - Brazil, Czech Republic, Serbia and Montenegro, Switzerland
Group F - Spain, Croatia, Tunisia, Ivory Coast
Group G - Italy, USA, Portugal, Togo
Group H - France, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ghana

Interesting matchups here...

[Edwin Thorne]

Seeding teams and placing those teams into pots is an excellent idea for generating pots of relative strengths for the WC draw. I like the notion of the draw, however, over the idea of simply lining teams up by seeds. This brings some randomness into the Group play where number 1 seed (Pot A) could get a tougher challenge by draing number 9 seed (Pot B). At least it would be more exciting as far as the WC draw goes.

[leg_breaker]

I don't see how Spain and Mexico are seeded, but Portugal and Holland aren't.

They may have done better in 2002, but the whole point of seeds is to keep the best teams apart in THIS world cup, not the last one. I know I'd rather have Spain and Mexico in our group than Portugal and Holland.

[Ombak]

I don't see how Spain and Mexico are seeded, but Portugal and Holland aren't.

They may have done better in 2002, but the whole point of seeds is to keep the best teams apart in THIS world cup, not the last one. I know I'd rather have Spain and Mexico in our group than Portugal and Holland.And how do you objectively measure the best teams?

[JugglinNCWest7]

And how do you objectively measure the best teams?

Using logic... and a little bit of magic :D

[JugglinNCWest7]

Anyway you slice it... Groups B, E, and F have 3 of the top 16 teams ranked by FIFA while A, D, and H only have 1... Just looking at that should say something about how unbalanced the groupings are and that the system needs to change.

A: 4, 18, 20, 23
B: 2, 13, 15, 29
C: 7, 10, 24, 27
D: 5, 17, 21, 31
E: 8, 9, 16, 30
F: 1, 12, 14, 28
G: 6, 11, 25, 32
H: 3, 19, 22, 26

Looking at the numbers... the toughest groups according to FIFA are E, F, and B. Anybody have a problem with this? Brazil (F) has the "2nd toughest" group and we're not even sure which team deserves to advance. The easiest groups are A, D, and H.

[leg_breaker]

I'd say the top 8 seeds should be:

Brazil
Argentina
Italy
England
Germany
Holland
Portugal
Czech Republic

And the second seeds:

America
Spain
Mexico
Poland
Sweden
France
Croatia
Switzerland

Hosts, if they otherwise aren't seeded, should go in the second pot not the first.