WC ticket confirmation # decoded!! (I think)

[ChelseaMatt]

Fellow ticket-hungry desperates:
******** I've read compelling arguments over the last two
days regarding the logic behind the confirmation
numbers sent to us by email, and this is what I've
surmised: (and forgive me if I'm repeating some of
you-- I've found some of your observations to be
astute)
********** I'm making several basic assumptions (which have
been relatively proven over the emails I've read):
1) 6-7 fax machines were used, and the confirmation
numbers given to those who sent in faxes start at
either 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, etc., and on each
fax machine, no more than 100 faxes got through
2) Overnight deliveries start at 8000 and are in
alphabetical order-- these number some 1300.
3) USSoccer will be giving out roughly 2800 tickets
per game.** (If we're lucky).** Hopefully, 2500 if we're
not
4) While each person can order up to 4 tickets per
game, the average will roughly be two.
******** So, USSoccer could handle it in 2 ways, either:
A) Give out tickets to those orders coming over the
fax on 12/12 first, then the next day deliveries, or:
B) Give out tickets randomly to orders coming over the
first day fax and next day deliveries.

If A is the case:
Approximately 80(number of faxes per machine) x
6(number of fax machines) x 2 (number of tickets per
order) = 960 tickets given to orders through fax
machine on day #1.** This leaves about 2500-1000= 1500
tickets to be given to 1300 overnight orders.
So: 1300 (overnight orders) x 2 (ticket requests per
order) = 2600 - 1500 (tickets still available) = 1100
S.O.L. unhappy people.** This would give a 1500/2600 =
60% success rate for next day delivery orders.

If B is the case:
960 + 2600 = 3600 tickets ordered over the first day
fax + next day delivery, giving a 2500/3600 = 70%
success rate.

Of course, this is wishful thinking on my part.** Any
other thoughts?

[JoeSoccerFan]

Of course, this is wishful thinking on my part.** Any
other thoughts?

Consider getting a hobby? ;)

[Mikeymike15]

Consider getting a hobby? ;)


And this is why I like Joe

[ChelseaMatt]

Consider getting a hobby? ;)
You have 2700 posts and you're lecturing me about getting a hobby. That makes me a kettle and you a pot!

[JoeSoccerFan]

You have 2700 posts and you're lecturing me about getting a hobby. That makes me a kettle and you a pot!

Yikes! The truth hurts! :o

[porkrind]

I appreciate all the WC ticket obsession. It keeps my mind off the quakes :(

[Cannon]

1) 6-7 fax machines were used, and the confirmation numbers given to those who sent in faxes start at
either 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, etc., and on each
fax machine, no more than 100 faxes got throughWhat is the basis for this assumption? How do you account for the fact that there is a clear relationship between the time a fax was sent and the confirmation number? Also where does the "100 faxes" part come from? Sorry but I think your guesstimate falls apart right here.3) USSoccer will be giving out roughly 2800 tickets per game.** (If we're lucky).** Hopefully, 2500 if we're notSo you assume that the USSF isn't keeping many tickets for themselves, sponsor, friends, random VIPS? The USSF got about 3513 tickets for the Czech match, 2966 for the Italians, and 2587 for Ghana (based on 8% of the available seating in the group stage). Take perhaps 1000 from those for USSF to hold on to and then they sell the rest to the public through this sale. That leaves about 2022 tickets on average per group stage game and just 6066 for the group stage in total. I use this number for my calculations below.

I also bet that they stick to the "first come, first served" plan. That means faxed orders sent on Monday get filled before any of the packages that arrived Tuesday.

Lets assume that confirmation numbers do not reflect tickets ordered but orders received. I assume that the faxes were coming in quickest from 1PM Eastern to about 5PM eastern. I already saw someone that got a low 1000 confirm right after the window opened. I got a low 3000 at a little after 5PM eastern. So figure a high of about 500 faxes per hour. The last fax confirm I saw on the "numbers fax time thread" was 6100 something at midnight eastern. So about 150 faxes per hour over that period. Lets assume that the USSF started at 8000 for the fedex orders because the faxes overnight put them somewhere above 7000 (150 per hour to 7AM = 1050, 7250 total). If we use your "each order is for 2 seats per game", then at least 12500 tickets per game could have been ordered by the public (not counting the number held back by USSF) before a single Fedex package got there. Not good. In this case all the available group stage tickets would be sold to orders (almost all faxed, a handful of same day mail) that arrived before midnight on Monday.

Now lets assume that the theory of the confirm. numbers reflecting number of tickets requested instead of orders is correct but hold the other assumptions true. We can also assume that 77% of ordered tickets are for the group stage (this reflects the % seen in an earlier poll of BSers). In that case, 6250 tickets could have been ordered prior to the fedex getting there. Of those tickets, 4813 would be for the group stage (77% of 6250). That would leave 1253 tickets (6066 available after USSF holdback - 4813) left available for the group stage or about 418 tickets per game. Much better situation for the fedex people.

[ChelseaMatt]

From what we could figure out on the Yanks in Germany yahoo group, faxes with confirmation numbers in the 5000's were received ahead of the 1000's, and none of the faxes on the first day had anything other than a zero in the second digit. It was theorized that the 1-6 initial number represented a different fax machine in use, and that no more than a hundred faxes were received on any one machine. Also, people getting through said that the faxes took 4 minutes to transmit, and were limited by the quality of the machine on the USSoccer side. I bought the theory.

Also, the next day deliveries seem to be numbered in alphabetical order, and number around 1300.

[JBigjake]

It keeps my mind off the quakes :(
The who?







Sorry, I just had to say it. Think expansion in 2007!

[The Lieutenant]

Is it wrong to have less than 20 days left in country, and be more worried about my World Cup Ticket application than getting home safe?

[El-Professor]

Is it wrong to have less than 20 days left in country, and be more worried about my World Cup Ticket application than getting home safe?

Whatever works for you brother. Keep your head down and we'll find ya a ticket.

[nowherenova]

It's going to be that much sweeter when we get there y'all. Hang in there.

We've still got a chance...?

[chrisrun]

1) 6-7 fax machines were used, and the confirmation
numbers given to those who sent in faxes start at
either 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, etc., and on each
fax machine, no more than 100 faxes got through


I think the better assumption is that the numbering is based on some kind of grouping, and that all faxes in that group would be assumed to have been received "at the same time". Thus 1000s were the first hour or so, 2000s the next, and so on. Then the 8000s and 9000s are in the same group of packages that were received the next morning, "at the same time".

[NASL Fan]

Is it wrong to have less than 20 days left in country, and be more worried about my World Cup Ticket application than getting home safe?

God bless you. It means you still have your humanity. :)

I actually think the guy who started this thread is right and that everyone who faxed and overnighted the first day will get tickets. I think it's people like me who are long shots: I Fed Exed from Mexico City on Tuesday, and my application arrived on Wednesday for a confirm number of 20xxx. I'm pretty sure that 20001 was the first number assigned on the second day...

[roadkit]

Has anyone considered calling Amy at USSF and just asking what it means?

[Etienne_72772]

OK--I called Amy at US Soccer, and she was gracious to answer a couple of questions for me.

She claimed the numbers were random, but when pressed on the issue (because I told her they definitely fall into patterns), she admitted that a computer program tells them what number to apply to each order, and she has no idea how the computer program generates the numbers.

So if there are patterns in the numbers, it is from whoever developed the program to spit out the numbers. THe folks at US Soccer are not aware of how this is done.

(She also told me that everyone on Bigsoccer that is fretting over this is crazy. And she was pretty emphatic about the use of the term "crazy".)

Also, I asked if she had any idea how many orders were received, and she said that she had absolutely no idea. What they are doing right now is trying to cull out the duplicates. She said she received a large number of duplicates, and they were doing their best to eliminate them (not both orders, but just the second of the duplicates).

She said that everyone who is getting tickets will know by January 6th.

[roadkit]

OK--I called Amy at US Soccer, and she was gracious to answer a couple of questions for me.

Repped.