Did I crack it?

[Palermo10]

Ok folks here's my theory, and you can debunk it if you wish, but here goes.


First off, let me say that we do not know everybody's last digit. For privacy sake that is a good thing.

My number was in the 1030s. My fax was received at 12:25pm Central time, only 25 minutes after the lines were supposed to open.

My original theory was that the numbering started at 1000. I still hold true to that, for now.

But what I think is the case, as many people are flipping out for receiving 8000 as a confirmation #, is that these are not the applications received, but perhaps the # of tickets requested.

When you think about it, if the numbering goes from 1000 to say, 9000, that is 8000 tickets. That is a maximum of 2500 applications (do we really argue that possibly 2,500 people applied?)

Many of us didnt apply for 4 tickets, but for now this is my latest theory.

It still needs some modification but I believe this more than I believe 8000 applicants.

[Galaxian]

Ok folks here's my theory, and you can debunk it if you wish, but here goes.


First off, let me say that we do not know everybody's last digit. For privacy sake that is a good thing.

My number was in the 1030s. My fax was received at 12:25pm Central time, only 25 minutes after the lines were supposed to open.

My original theory was that the numbering started at 1000. I still hold true to that, for now.

But what I think is the case, as many people are flipping out for receiving 8000 as a confirmation #, is that these are not the applications received, but perhaps the # of tickets requested.

When you think about it, if the numbering goes from 1000 to say, 9000, that is 8000 tickets. That is a maximum of 2500 applications (do we really argue that possibly 2,500 people applied?)

Many of us didnt apply for 4 tickets, but for now this is my latest theory.

It still needs some modification but I believe this more than I believe 8000 applicants.
I also dont think there were 8000 applicants , and you could be on to something with the number of tickets . I read on another thread someone saying it could be the number of matches you applied for .
Palermo, how many tickets did you apply for ?

[Palermo10]

Palermo, how many tickets did you apply for ?


3, all first round = 9

Which brings me to the 2nd half of my theory.

If I applied for 9 tickets in total, my confirmation would be 103x, and then the next number would not start until 9 digits after mine.

So if you are # 8567, and the guy before you had 4 ticket holders for each of the first round matches, his number would be 8555.

[TGE70]

Ok folks here's my theory, and you can debunk it if you wish, but here goes.


First off, let me say that we do not know everybody's last digit. For privacy sake that is a good thing.

My number was in the 1030s. My fax was received at 12:25pm Central time, only 25 minutes after the lines were supposed to open.

My original theory was that the numbering started at 1000. I still hold true to that, for now.

But what I think is the case, as many people are flipping out for receiving 8000 as a confirmation #, is that these are not the applications received, but perhaps the # of tickets requested.

When you think about it, if the numbering goes from 1000 to say, 9000, that is 8000 tickets. That is a maximum of 2500 applications (do we really argue that possibly 2,500 people applied?)

Many of us didnt apply for 4 tickets, but for now this is my latest theory.

It still needs some modification but I believe this more than I believe 8000 applicants.

Yahtzee! Think you're defo onto something here. I got my fax through Monday late afternoon and landed somewhere in the 3000's.

Very well done.

[asdf2]

Than what you are saying is that with a confirmation # of 8000, figuring the average person applied to 4 games (just a guess), is that you and your 3 buddies are approx #2000 on the pecking order.

That is not good news for someone like me who got a fax in mid-day Tuesday and a DHL in at 1028am Wednesday (signed by S.Polk) and has no confirm # yet. I'm screwed right? Because there are only 8% of the tickets allocated to the US for those matches and that means 8% x 41,000(?) average attendance is only approx 2400 tickets per game.

This means that depending on the stadium sizes for the 1st 2 games, and except for the US/Ghana game, which I'm thinking won't even sell out, this means I'm screwed, right???

[Galaxian]

Than what you are saying is that with a confirmation # of 8000, figuring the average person applied to 4 games (just a guess), is that you and your 3 buddies are approx #2000 on the pecking order.

That is not good news for someone like me who got a fax in mid-day Tuesday and a DHL in at 1028am Wednesday (signed by S.Polk) and has no confirm # yet. I'm screwed right? Because there are only 8% of the tickets allocated to the US for those matches and that means 8% x 41,000(?) average attendance is only approx 2400 tickets per game.

This means that depending on the stadium sizes for the 1st 2 games, and except for the US/Ghana game, which I'm thinking won't even sell out, this means I'm screwed, right???
Dude I reeeeeeeaally hope not because I'm in the same boat as you are .... :(

[Palermo10]

Than what you are saying is that with a confirmation # of 8000, figuring the average person applied to 4 games (just a guess), is that you and your 3 buddies are approx #2000 on the pecking order.

That is not good news for someone like me who got a fax in mid-day Tuesday and a DHL in at 1028am Wednesday (signed by S.Polk) and has no confirm # yet. I'm screwed right? Because there are only 8% of the tickets allocated to the US for those matches and that means 8% x 41,000(?) average attendance is only approx 2400 tickets per game.

This means that depending on the stadium sizes for the 1st 2 games, and except for the US/Ghana game, which I'm thinking won't even sell out, this means I'm screwed, right???

Well I would assume the average person applied for the first round games only. And if my confirmation # is 103x, and everybody ahead of me ordered 4 tickets, then that would put me at about 8th or 9th. Very probable for a fax that went in 25 minutes after noon.

If there are only 2400 tickets available for a game, then the first 600 (assuming 4 tickets per person) applicants would get in. But to make another assumption, I would bet the majority of applicants are 2 person orders - figure in the first 1000 applicants.

[asdf2]

Well I would assume the average person applied for the first round games only. And if my confirmation # is 103x, and everybody ahead of me ordered 4 tickets, then that would put me at about 8th or 9th. Very probable for a fax that went in 25 minutes after noon.

If there are only 2400 tickets available for a game, then the first 600 (assuming 4 tickets per person) applicants would get in. But to make another assumption, I would bet the majority of applicants are 2 person orders - figure in the first 1000 applicants.

You seem to be a genius Palermo but you're confusing me. Think of it this way. If someone is #8500, then 8500 - 1000 (since they started at 1000) = 7500 tickets have been requested. The US gets gets 2400 per game (is that real since stadium sizes are different) x 3 games (ignoring some requests for later games) = 7200 tickets.

This means they are about sold out and I am screwed. FFFFCCCCKKKK!!!

[Palermo10]

You seem to be a genius Palermo but you're confusing me. Think of it this way. If someone is #8500, then 8500 - 1000 (since they started at 1000) = 7500 tickets have been requested. The US gets gets 2400 per game (is that real since stadium sizes are different) x 3 games (ignoring some requests for later games) = 7200 tickets.

This means they are about sold out and I am screwed. FFFFCCCCKKKK!!!


That is what it seems like. I mean is 2000 applicants really that farfetched?

I don't think we're there yet, it is just fun to attempt to crack the code.

Especially when they give us crap about the numbers not meaning anything in a FirstComeFirstServe draw... :rolleyes:

[asdf2]

FYI:

Gelsenkirchen (Czech game)
Gross Capacity: 53,804
Total Seating Capacity: 48,426
Purchasable Ticket Capacity-Group stage: 43,920

Kaiserslautern (Italy game)
Gross Capacity: 41,170
Total Seating Capacity: 41,513
Purchasable Ticket Capacity-Group stage: 37,084

Nuremberg (Ghana game)
Gross Capacity: 41,926
Total Seating Capacity: 36,898
Purchasable Ticket Capacity-Group stage: 32,341


Will someone please tell me how many tickets we actually get for each game?

[Palermo10]

Kaiserslautern (Italy game)
Gross Capacity: 41,170
Total Seating Capacity: 41,513
Purchasable Ticket Capacity-Group stage: 37,084


:confused:

[Ricky_DCU]

Will someone please tell me how many tickets we actually get for each game?

Check this post:

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6954404&postcount=1

It's as good of an informed guess as any so far.

[asdf2]

I just cut and pasted those #s from the FIFA website. No typos.

[EXboxur]

Maybe a little bit off topic, but why do we only get 8% and not 10% of the capacity? Do you think that the USSF actually gets 10%, but keeps the 2% for staff and families, etc.? Whenever we try to guess how many tickets fans will actually get, we always take away tickets for staff and families etc.

Do you think every soccer federation only gets 8% at each stadium?

[asdf2]

Check this post:

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6954404&postcount=1

It's as good of an informed guess as any so far.

That post is as follows (sic):

Game .......Stadium Total...8% Available....Minus 500 Big Wigs and Sponsers
Chexico............43920...............3 514.............3014
Italy................37084.............. .2967.............2467
Ghana..............32341...............2 587.............2087
Rd 16 Winner.....36392...............2911..... ........2411
Rd 16 2nd Place..50276..............4022.......... ...3522


So if Palermo broke the code right, and you are #8500 it just depend on how many of the 7500 ticket requests in front of you are for the 2nd round through the finals. I'm guessing what, about 20%-30% of the requests are for later rounds?!?

There seem to be 9000 tickets available for the 1st round less Big Wigs. That Big Wig # seems to be a wild ass guess. Could be more. Could be less.

Also, are they charging credit cards? If not, than some orders, 10% or whatever (maybe less), will get rejected at that time.

[Wizhawk]

It may be that they assign you an increasing number based on how many other people have requested tickets, but I don't think your confirmation number has anything to do with your priority. If your theory is true, they would go through each order, not necessarily in order received, assign a confirmation number based on tickets, and then log the "time received" somewhere else.

[Palermo10]

It may be that they assign you an increasing number based on how many other people have requested tickets, but I don't think your confirmation number has anything to do with your priority. If your theory is true, they would go through each order, not necessarily in order received, assign a confirmation number based on tickets, and then log the "time received" somewhere else.


If you look at the Numbers/Faxes thread, its clear that the numbers increase the later the application was received. It is a firstcomefirstserve draw, so... but you never know with USSF.

It is fun to speculate though! And nerveracking at the same time

[MinnesotaScouser]

There certainly is a pattern with the first digit of these numbers, but there is something up with the second number. It almost always is 0,1,2, or 3. Ocassional 5 but never higher. I don't think there are 8000 applications or tickets requested. I wonder if this digit represent what category you requested, I,II,III, or IV. And maybe 0 is if you agreed to take tickets in any category. Also, I wonder if your request for Sam's Army seating is somehow worked into the number. Who knows? Let's hope we're in the 800's and not the 8000's.

[EXboxur]

Anybody know when they are supposed to process the orders and start billing?

Do you think they will wait until all the available tickets are requested for, before they start billing? :confused:

[Monarch Bay Beachbum]

I am not sure that those numbers are chronological. I have a receipt #84xx and my UPS was accepted at 7:21 AM.