Numbers/Fax Times

[Loman]

918X

Applied for 2 tickets to Czech Rep. and Ghana. On the 9:43 fedex truck.

[chrisrun]

It sure is looking like the FedEx applications received on Tuesday started with #8000. There is no way they received 7000 applications via fax on Monday. It's looking like the fax orders were maybe spread out via hour or some other method. Based on the number grouping we have seen, I would be suprised if they received 600 applications via fax that first day. And of those that are "ahead", we don't know how they will actually allocate the tickets. Just because you are asking for tickets to three games doesn't mean that you will get them all.

Bottom line, they got my FedEx (conf # 90xx), and now I'll just wait and see if I get tickets. I'm not 100% sure I'll get some, but I'm not thinking that I am totally screwed either.

[Palermo10]

Would those of you in the following category please PM me with your conf. # and the # of tickets you applied for

Thanks to abw we may have this thing figured out...



# 82xx sent via FedEx, arrived at 7:09am Tuesday
# 82xx sent via FedEx, arrived at 9:43am Tuesday
# 83xx sent via Fedex, arrived at 7:09am Tuesday
# 83xx sent via FedEx, arrived at 9:43am Tuesday
# 83xx sent via FedEx, arrived at 9:43am Tuesday
# 83xx sent via Fedex, arrived at 9:42am Tuesday

[Palermo10]

If there is anybody out there with a confirmation number higher than 8221 and lower than 8232, please PM me and tell me how many tickets you bought.

... although I bet I could tell you first...

[SnakeEyes]

care to share?

[Palermo10]

Ok here's what I got...

"User A" PMed me and told me that if my theory were correct, my number would be 103x.

Well, it was.

He took his confirmation #, added the number of tickets he requested, and he got the # before mine



User C had a conf number of 822x. They requested 6 tickets.
User E had a confirmation number 13 higher than User C (they applied for 6 tickets, but thats not important)

That only leaves room for User D to have applied for 6 tickets - a very common application #.

That way we have User C + User D + User E = 18 tickets.

I already know that User C and User E = 12 tickets

User C + User E = 18 - User D
12 = 18 - User D

User D = 6 tickets.

Fits perfectly in between them.

[SnakeEyes]

So it's exactly as we thought earlier.. it's total ticket quantity requested counting from 1000?

[Shibb]

Dag. If you applied this much energy to something constructive we'd have solved the energy crisis, fixed global warming, won peace in the Middle East and figured out where the other sock goes during the laundry process. I admire your diligence but it won't change what will or won't happen.

[Palermo10]

So it's exactly as we thought earlier.. it's total ticket quantity requested counting from 1000?

Well its total ticket quantity. That is pretty much defined now.

Whether it comes from 1000 was my other theory, which makes more sense.

(No way that 1000 tickets were ordered - 250 faxes - in the 25 minutes between noon and when my fax went through)

[Palermo10]

Dag. If you applied this much energy to something constructive we'd have solved the energy crisis, fixed global warming, won peace in the Middle East and figured out where the other sock goes during the laundry process. I admire your diligence but it won't change what will or won't happen.

You should've seen me a year ago November... :(

[Wizhawk]

it makes sense. but what about the random variances?

[Palermo10]

it makes sense. but what about the random variances?


Methinks we just don't have enough data....

The two of us in the 1000s both had 0 in teh 2nd digit, and it applied.

The 4-5 people I used were in the 8200s and 8300s

[Wizhawk]

Well its total ticket quantity. That is pretty much defined now.

Whether it comes from 1000 was my other theory, which makes more sense.

(No way that 1000 tickets were ordered - 250 faxes - in the 25 minutes between noon and when my fax went through)

Unless....those 1000 other tickets are for "Friends of US Soccer", sponsors, and VIPs.

[abw]

My theory is that the Fed is starting from a "base" - a number of tickets already allocated (internally? big donors? players?).

What is interesting is that BigSoccer posters' orders are arriving almost in order.

I also think that they are building in blocks of open numbers that fit between sequential orders - perhaps for filling in FedExs, letters?

[abw]

It's also worth reiterating that the tickets are total tickets ordered - not by game. So that can include Round of 16 and even the final.

[rickinva]

Unless....those 1000 other tickets are for "Friends of US Soccer", sponsors, and VIPs.

That would certainly seem plausible. Save 1,000 tickets for the big shots, and let the rest line up for everything after that.

[SnakeEyes]

It's also worth reiterating that the tickets are total tickets ordered - not by game. So that can include Round of 16 and even the final.

which again skews where you actually stand from a looking just at a high number standpoint.

[Palermo10]

which again skews where you actually stand from a looking just at a high number standpoint.

If you take the above, consider that your "worst-case" scenario... i.e. if all the tickets were for the first round.

I arbitrarily chose 75% as the actual first round tickets when I was discussing it with someone- but thats just a guesstimate.

[Wizhawk]

Palermo, other than #s 1-1000, have you found any significant gaps? Also, have you found many people who have higher numbers for the 2nd digit? Your theory might be true to an extent, but that doesn't mean that confirmation #8227 means that is the 8,227th ticket ordered. It could be the 5,649th.

[Etienne_72772]

I still don't think that the number is indicative of a person ultimate place in line. If that were the case, then I wouldn't be stuck with 91XX (my fedex came in at 7:09am) when others thatn came in at 9:30am (or so) have numbers in the 8000s. I still think there is some variation based on when the orders were processed, and the ultimate order will be provided in another way (it better be, or I'll be pissed if the later Fedexers get a higher seed than me...)

I also think that there were large blocks of numbers that went unused throughout--so there could be large gaps between numbers.

So although it can give us a general feeling of when people are placed in line, it doesn't really tell us much of anything, since we don't know how many blank gaps there are throughout the numbering process.