If I Could Pick Just One Opponent for USA

[California Jack]

It would be the opponent from Pot 3 (the unseeded Euros).

I look at it this way: the seed is going to qualify, the minnow is not going to qualify. The work Serie Zed and fellow posters on the "468 Possible Draws" thread have compiled shows that the key factor in determining whether USA advances to the knockout stage is who our "middle" opponent is.

I would much rather have Brazil as our seed and the strongest Pot 4 "minnow" if we could also get Ukraine or Switzerland, than to have the weakest seed, the weakest Pot 4 minnow, and Netherlands or Czech.

This is because if we have a weak minnow, we will beat it, but so will the seed and the Euro. I'd rather have a stronger minnow that we can beat, but might beat or draw the Euro, and a Euro we can beat.

I think that the computer models described on the "468 draws" thread would bear this out. There is probably a great deal more variation in the chances of USA qualifying based on whom we draw from Pot 3 than based on whom we draw from Pots 1 and 4 combined. (I'd be interested to test simulations on the most extreme examples, which might be Brazil/Ivory Coast/Ukraine vs. Italy/Angola/Netherlands). I would bet that we qualify more often from the Brazil group, finishing second, even though we probably win it very rarely and finish in fourth place more often. We might win the Italy group more often than we win the Brazil group, and we might finish last very rarely, but I would bet that we'd finish third pretty often.

If the goal is to advance to the second round, the only difference that matters is the difference between second and third. In all likelihood we are going to finish second or third, regardless of our opponents. So the key is not our seed or our minnow, its our one main rival for second place, which will come from Pot 3.

[swedust]

I thought we were in Pot 4 w/Asia. No?

[macheath]

There is an argument for hoping we get drawn with a very strong number one seed (Brazil), and two weaker ones, and then hope that the number one seed beats the c**p out of the other two teams in the group, and we hold our own against the number one. If the number one seed really slams the other teams in the group, could make it better for us.

[appoo]

that would put us in poor position for the 2nd round though, as it would mean facing a seeded team there.

I'd like to face a weaker seed in the group because we'd have a better chance of winning the group, and then facing a Non-Seed in the 2nd round.

[ImageVerification]

that would put us in poor position for the 2nd round though, as it would mean facing a seeded team there.

I'd like to face a weaker seed in the group because we'd have a better chance of winning the group, and then facing a Non-Seed in the 2nd round.

That is assuming the seed wins the group. There is nothing saying that the seed will win the group. Heck - you are even hoping that a non-seed (i.e. the US) wins our group. What if we pull that off, but Holland does too? They would bump whatever seed that is in their group down to second spot, in which case we'd be facing a seed ... :cool:

[dfb547490]

that would put us in poor position for the 2nd round though, as it would mean facing a seeded team there.

I'd like to face a weaker seed in the group because we'd have a better chance of winning the group, and then facing a Non-Seed in the 2nd round.

Not neccesarily true. There's always a good chance that the seed in the group opposite ours will qualify after 2 games, then dog it in the 3rd game and finish 2nd in the group. Or the seed could just drop a game and get beat out, which is exactly how we ended up facing Mexico in '02. Worry about the second round when it comes, first objective is getting there.

[Mr Martin]

... So the key is not our seed or our minnow, its our one main rival for second place, which will come from Pot 3.

Above is correct, if you want to take the odds rather than hope for luck.

But this, below, is riskier:

that would put us in poor position for the 2nd round though, as it would mean facing a seeded team there.

I'd like to face a weaker seed in the group because we'd have a better chance of winning the group, and then facing a Non-Seed in the 2nd round.

Sure, I'd like to face a weaker seeded team as well, if I had the choice. But the original poster argues that more likely than not, it is the team from the 3d pot that will have a bigger impact on the US chances to advance at all, which is the primary goal.

If I could select ANY one team as guaranteed to be placed in the US 1st round group, from any pot, and then take my chances with the rest of the draw, I'd pick SWITZERLAND and live with whatever seed comes my way.

Options from pots 1 and 3:

1. Brazil and Switzerland; or

2. Spain and Netherlands.

I'd take #1 in a heartbeat. Option #1 means playing only 1 seeded team, even if it is the cup favorite like Brazil. Option #2 means basically playing TWO teams strong enough to have been seeded; no thanks.

Heck, my ideal group would be Spain, Switzerland and Angola, but I'm not holding my breath for that one! :D

Lastly, for some reason we DON'T get to have a guaranteed choice from ANY of the pots, so none of this matters anyway... :p

[California Jack]

Sure, I'd like to face a weaker seeded team as well, if I had the choice. But the original poster argues that more likely than not, it is the team from the 3d pot that will have a bigger impact on the US chances to advance at all, which is the primary goal.

If I could select ANY one team as guaranteed to be placed in the US 1st round group, from any pot, and then take my chances with the rest of the draw, I'd pick SWITZERLAND and live with whatever seed comes my way.

Options from pots 1 and 3:

1. Brazil and Switzerland; or

2. Spain and Netherlands.

I'd take #1 in a heartbeat. Option #1 means playing only 1 seeded team, even if it is the cup favorite like Brazil. Option #2 means basically playing TWO teams strong enough to have been seeded; no thanks.

Heck, my ideal group would be Spain, Switzerland and Angola, but I'm not holding my breath for that one! :D

You are exactly right. If I were given the option of choosing our Euro and having a hypothetical "anti-USA fan" intentionally select our seed and our "minnow", or the option of letting "anti-USA" select our Euro, and I would get to pick both the seed and the minnow, I would definitely pick the Euro and let him pick the other two.

So if the soccer fairy comes tonight and grants you one, only one, wish, do what Mr. Martin says and pick Switzerland.



Lastly, for some reason we DON'T get to have a guaranteed choice from ANY of the pots, so none of this matters anyway... :p

Well, true, but for those of us slavishing posting and reading the seeding threads all year, we prefer not to think about our complete lack of influence in the matter. ;)

[Kernel KlinK]

The one team I would pick to play in the World Cup would be MEXICO.
We own them like Gooch owns Borghetti.
Alas, it can't heppen until the knockout rounds.

[swedust]

The one team I would pick to play in the World Cup would be MEXICO.
We own them like Gooch owns Borghetti.
Alas, it can't heppen until the knockout rounds.

Well, if you're going there: T&T

[Mr Martin]

The one team I would pick to play in the World Cup would be MEXICO.
We own them like Gooch owns Borghetti.
Alas, it can't heppen until the knockout rounds.

Well, if you're going there: T&T

Can we please keep the wishful thinking, impossible fantasies within the WC rules... :D

[Ghost]

As I said in another thread, there's a pretty good argument for drawing Brazil, particularly if you draw a weaker Euro team. First, it would eliminate Paraguay. While we have an excellent record historically against them, they consistently get to the second round. They're the best known quantity in that pot. Second, we have a good history of playing Brazil pretty close, at least scorewise. I think Switzerland would get blown out by them, by three or four goals. I think we would lose by one or two, tops.

Agree wholeheartedly that the Euro pot is the most important. Although I'm a little sick of whole strategizing the pot. We need to worry less about who we play and more about how badly we're going to beat them.

[CCSC_STRIKER20]

As I said in another thread, there's a pretty good argument for drawing Brazil, particularly if you draw a weaker Euro team. First, it would eliminate Paraguay. While we have an excellent record historically against them, they consistently get to the second round. They're the best known quantity in that pot. Second, we have a good history of playing Brazil pretty close, at least scorewise. I think Switzerland would get blown out by them, by three or four goals. I think we would lose by one or two, tops.

Agree wholeheartedly that the Euro pot is the most important. Although I'm a little sick of whole strategizing the pot. We need to worry less about who we play and more about how badly we're going to beat them.
Personally, as much as I want to make it out of group stages, my next goal I would like to see the USA beat a rival, like Mexico (out of group play) or England (in/out of group play). I just want the team to show that we can beat one of the bigger teams in Europe.

[SC Pfullendorf]

Well, if you're going there: T&T

I don't want to play T&T, we were very fortunate to beat them. We are not a brilliant team like we are making out to be.

Darn it I must stop mixing up my own thoughts for those of Dwight Yorke!!!

[California Jack]

As I said in another thread, there's a pretty good argument for drawing Brazil, particularly if you draw a weaker Euro team. First, it would eliminate Paraguay. While we have an excellent record historically against them, they consistently get to the second round. They're the best known quantity in that pot. Second, we have a good history of playing Brazil pretty close, at least scorewise. I think Switzerland would get blown out by them, by three or four goals. I think we would lose by one or two, tops.

Agree wholeheartedly that the Euro pot is the most important. Although I'm a little sick of whole strategizing the pot. We need to worry less about who we play and more about how badly we're going to beat them.

patience, Ghost. One more day of strategizing the pot, followed by 180 days of in depth analysis of three matches to come in June. By May, I expect we will be able to name the parents, siblings, and high school coach of every single player on each of the three sides USA will face.

interesting point re Brazil/not Paraguay.

[hala-cosmos]

As I said in another thread, there's a pretty good argument for drawing Brazil, particularly if you draw a weaker Euro team. First, it would eliminate Paraguay. While we have an excellent record historically against them, they consistently get to the second round. They're the best known quantity in that pot. Second, we have a good history of playing Brazil pretty close, at least scorewise. I think Switzerland would get blown out by them, by three or four goals. I think we would lose by one or two, tops.

We have a history of playing brazil close in meaningless matches facing their B team, but there are exceptions.

Applying the same logic (re: eliminating Paraguay), Getting drawn into Argentinas group may be the better choice, if only b/c I believe their full speed ahead attacking style may help us counterattack more effectively.

Brazil's 'hey, lookie me' style of toying with opponents could get us into card trouble early on, whereas vs. the argies, i think we all know whos more likely to do the fouling.

That, and I'm dying to see Gooch knock the pi$$ out of Crespo. (or anyone else currently playing for Chelsea, for that matter)

We'll get an african team too if drawn into a SA group, none of which are all that fearsome.