Post your "Conspiracy Theory" Draw

[bwiorly]

[Note to mods: I’m starting a new thread here, because this seems to be a new line of discussion. However, feel free to move my posts into the “Draw rules, News, Possibilities & Mock Draws” thread if you think they belong there.]

In this thread, I suggest we post and discuss our possible “conspiracy theory” scenarios for Friday’s draw.

A “conspiracy theory draw” is not a traditional mock draw in the sense that rather than randomly drawing teams following FIFA procedures, one has to try to come up with a “rigged” draw that would be the dream draw for FIFA and the German organizers. Naturally, this draw must be based on the pots and procedures established by FIFA on Tuesday, i.e. it has to be a draw that could happen on Friday (no Brazil, England, Paraguay, USA group F for example).

I define that “dream draw for FIFA and the German organizers” as a draw that
(1) would favor Germany and Brazil and increase the likelihood of the two teams meeting in the final;
(2) would offer some intriguing match-ups so as to sustain the public’s interest beyond just Germany and Brazil;
(3) would see a good number of favorites in a favorable position to advance as far as possible, with the door open for one or two Cinderella stories.

I realize there’s a lot of ifs and buts, but here is what I came up with.

In a second post, I’ll offer my comments as to why this draw would constitute an excellent “conspiracy theory draw” and would have a lot of people raising their eyebrows if it were to happen on Friday. In a third post, I’ll take the conspiracy theory one step further and play out the rest of the tournament, once again assuming the best from the perspective of FIFA and the German organizers.

I hope other forum members will come up with
(1) suggestions to make my draw an even better conspiracy theory draw;
(2) their own conspiracy theory draws—one rule though: you have to explain why your draw is a good conspiracy theory draw.

Note that I didn’t go as far as to assign positions to teams in groups, but taking group A as an example, I suggest that
(a) Trinidad & Tobago in A2, Switzerland in A3 and Tunisia in A4
would be more of a conspiracy theory draw than
(b) Switzerland in A2, Tunisia in A3 and Trinidad & Tobago in A4
because
(a) would give Germany an easy first game, a tough but winnable game against a regional rival as a second game, and a relatively easy third game should an accident happen against Switzerland;
whereas
(b) would give Germany a tough game as their opener followed by what could be a very tricky second game against Tunisia on 3 pts (assuming a win against T&T) should they lose to Switzerland.

If someone wants to assign positions to teams in all groups, justifying why one combination would be more reflective of a conspiracy theory draw than other possible combinations, please be my guest.

In the meantime, here’s my conspiracy theory draw.

A
Germany
Tunisia
Switzerland
Trinidad & Tobago

B
France
Ecuador
Croatia
Iran

C
Mexico
Cote d’Ivoire
Holland
Serbia and Montenegro

D
Argentina
Australia
Ukraine
Japan

E
Italy
Angola
Sweden
Saudi Arabia

F
Brazil
Togo
Poland
Costa-Rica

G
Spain
Paraguay
Czech Republic
USA

H
England
Ghana
Portugal
Republic of Korea

[bwiorly]

Following my original post above, here is why I think my draw constitutes a pretty good conspiracy draw:

Group A: Germany, Tunisia, Switzerland, Trinidad & Tobago
Easy draw for Germany but the presence of Switzerland in the group will keep things interesting: not only is Switzerland a neighbor of Germany, but the bad blood between Turkey and Switzerland would rally the Turkish community behind Germany, which would be a plus for German national unity (following the Black-Blanc-Beur model of France 1998 when all immigrant populations rallied behind the French team on its way to victory).

Group B: France, Ecuador, Croatia, Iran
Not a whole lot of conspiracy theory stuff here, except the renewal of the France-Croatia rivalry (after WC 1998 and Euro 2004) and the possibility of a Cinderella story for Iran in a group that appears relatively weak. Also, a good chance that Croatia would finish second in this group, which would have them play Germany in the round of 16—a rematch of the WC 1998 quarterfinals that left a bad taste in the mouth of a lot of Germans.

Group C: Mexico, Cote d’Ivoire, Holland, Serbia and Montenegro
Brazil and Argentina avoid a dangerous Serbia and Montenegro side. This draw also has Holland in Mexico’s group according to the theory that what is perceived as the weakest seeded team would get the strongest non-seeded team. The presence of Cote d’Ivoire in the group makes it a strong group, which would generate a lot of interest from the general public. Finally, should Holland win this group (a strong possibility) and advance past the round of 16, they would play Germany in the quarterfinals in Match 57 in Berlin in what would probably be the most-anticipated WC quarterfinals ever.

Group D: Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, Japan
Argentina would be a clear favorite here with very intriguing match-ups for second place: A possible Australian surprise? The beginning of a “regional rivalry” between “Asian” powers Australia and Japan?... Argentina drawing group D also opens a golden path towards an explosive Argentina-Brazil semifinal: to make it to the semis, Argentina would have to beat 2C (presumably Mexico, Serbia and Montenegro or Cote d’Ivoire) and then the winner of a weak 1B-2A match up (possibly France-Switzerland).

Group E: Italy, Angola, Sweden, Saudi Arabia
Relatively easy group for favorite Italy and the dark horse of many, Sweden—and we get a rematch of the great game between the two sides at Euro 2004 with Ibrahimovic’s late goal sealing the fate of the Italians in the competition. In addition, Italy finishing first could have them play the winner of Spain-Portugal in the quarterfinals in a Southern European clash; and Sweden finishing second would pit them against Brazil in a round of 16 (1958 final or 1994 semis, anyone?)

Group F: Brazil, Togo, Poland, Costa-Rica
Easy draw for Brazil; possible African or Central American surprises in Togo and Costa-Rica.

Group G: Spain, Paraguay, Czech Republic, USA
The group of death—there has to be a GoD so fans have something to talk about between the draw and the beginning of the WC. This one seems to be the ideal GoD with arguably the strongest teams from pots 2 and 4 and one of the strongest from pot 3. Conspiracy theorists would have Spain draw the group of death over any other seeded team, just so the questions “Is Spain the eternal underachiever of world soccer?” and “Are they going to fail again this time around?” remain on the table. Also, this draw gives us round 3 of the trans-Atlantic Hispanic rivalry between Spain and Paraguay (also drawn in the same group at WC 1998 and WC 2002). Finally, a Spain-Portugal match-up looms on the horizon for the round of 16, either as the 1G-2H game or the 1H-2G game.

Group H: England, Ghana, Portugal, Republic of Korea
England draws a tough but winnable group, gets to play against Ghana in a post-colonial match-up, against Korea in an old world vs. new world match-up, but most of all against Portugal in a rematch of the controversial Euro 2004 quarterfinal game. This draw gives us very exciting possible round of 16 games in the 1G-2H and 1H-2G match-ups (Spain-Portugal, as previously mentioned, but also England-Czech Rep, England-USA, Portugal-USA, etc.) and the prospect of a Brazil-England quarterfinal game in match 60.

In conclusion, I believe this is as good a conspiracy theory draw as possible and you can count me among the conspiracy theorists if we get a draw approaching this one on Friday. :D

[bwiorly]

In this third post, I will take my conspiracy theory draw a little further and play out the rest of the tournament once again assuming the best from the perspective of FIFA and the German organizers. Now, don’t get me wrong, there’s even less of a possibility for FIFA and the German organizers to weigh on the outcome of direct elimination games than for them to rig the draw, but this is a fun exercise, so let’s go ahead:

Round of 16

1A-2B: Germany vs. Croatia
 Rematch of WC 1998 quarterfinal. Germany gets its revenge.

1C-2D: Holland vs. Australia
 The Aussies become a crowd favorite, but don’t really threaten the Germany-Holland match-up in the quarterfinals.

1E-2F: Italy vs. Togo
 The great European power against this World Cup’s Cinderella team. As a former colony, Togo finds unexpected support among the German public but loses on penalties.

1G-2H: Spain vs. Portugal
 Regional rivalry, rematch of the last first-round game of Euro 2004. Spain is through in overtime.

1B-2A: France vs. Switzerland
 Two regional rivals pitted against each other in a rematch of the Euro 2004 group game and the qualifier games for this World Cup. Hordes of (peaceful, high-spending) French and Swiss fans make the short trip to Germany. Les Bleus get massive support from the Turks living in Germany and win, avoiding possible trouble in later rounds between Turkish and Swiss fans.

1D-2C: Argentina vs. Mexico
 Huge game between Americas rivals. Argentina advances.

1F-2E: Brazil vs. Sweden
 Rematch of WC 1958 final and WC 1994 semifinal. Same outcome.

1H-2G: England vs. Czech Rep
 Two top European sides. High-scoring affair with England prevailing


Quarterfinals

Match 57: Germany vs. Holland
 Dutch and German fans mingle peacefully in Berlin. Germany sends Holland packing in overtime.

Match 58: Italy vs. Spain
 Spain falls short again in this Southern European derby.

Match 59: Argentina vs. France
 The Argentineans (and the world) won’t be denied. France not strong enough to prevent the dream South American semifinal.

Match 60: Brazil vs. England
 Four years later, Brazil wins again—on penalties this time, after a classic.


Semifinals

Germany vs. Italy
 Rematch of the best WC semifinal ever (Mexico, 1970). Same score (4-3), different winner: Germany is in the final.

Agrentina vs. Brazil
 South American clash goes to penalties. Brazil is through to the final.


Final

Germany vs. Brazil
 Germany wins at home avenging their WC 2002 loss.

FIFA and the German organizers are the big winners: they rigged the draw and everything fell into place. Full stadiums, great match-ups, dream final (for them). Germany 2006 gets the “Best World Cup ever” label.

[OutKast3000]

No way is Germany going to the finals! and they are not going to lose to Holland.....I doubt they make it past the round of 16 much less the finals.

The odds of a repeat - conspiracy theory or not.....it ain't happening.

[bravo340]

I enjoyed reading that. That would be eerie if a certain amount of this came true. Entertaining, nonetheless. :)

[argentine soccer fan]

Germany 2006 gets the “Best World Cup ever” label.

I guess it all could happen, except for that last sentence. Great world cups need great champions. There is no way that a world cup won by a scrappy home team like this year's Germany could possibly be labeled 'the best ever'.

[bwiorly]

No way is Germany going to the finals! and they are not going to lose to Holland.....I doubt they make it past the round of 16 much less the finals.

The odds of a repeat - conspiracy theory or not.....it ain't happening.

Once again, I'm not saying that this will happen, neither am I saying that I want this to happen. I am merely arguing that should FIFA and the German organizers find a way to rig the draw, my suggested conspiracy theory draw would come close to what they'd try to do.

As for the rest of the tournament, I'm not making any claims to the likelihood of it playing out the way I describe it. I'm looking at things as best possible scenarios from the perspective of FIFA and the German organizers.

That being said, I don't think a Brazil-Germany final would be such a shock. Home-field advantage can't be undersestimated in the WC and we've seen a repeat final before (Germany vs. Argentina in 1986 and 1990), with a reversed outcome the second time around, just like I envision in my purely hypothetical scenario.

[OutKast3000]

I forgot to add my reasoning.

Germany is not as good as they once were -- lack of youth development perhaps.

[OutKast3000]

Once again, I'm not saying that this will happen, neither am I saying that I want this to happen. I am merely arguing that should FIFA and the German organizers find a way to rig the draw, my suggested conspiracy theory draw would come close to what they'd try to do.

As for the rest of the tournament, I'm not making any claims to the likelihood of it playing out the way I describe it. I'm looking at things as best possible scenarios from the perspective of FIFA and the German organizers.

That being said, I don't think a Brazil-Germany final would be such a shock. Home-field advantage can't be undersestimated in the WC and we've seen a repeat final before (Germany vs. Argentina in 1986 and 1990), with a reversed outcome the second time around, just like I envision in my purely hypothetical scenario.

I'm not trying to stoke a fire -- but I just don't see it as possible att all. Brazil however -- they have been to the finals in the last 3 world cups!

[Springbok FC]

I guess it all could happen, except for that last sentence. Great world cups need great champions. There is no way that a world cup won by a scrappy home team like this year's Germany could possibly be labeled 'the best ever'.

So true. Even with homefield advantage, this is not a vintage German side by any means. I think they may peak at the semifinals.

[Pablo Chicago]

Interesting, and I appreciate the time and effort taken in the preparation of your theory. The theory is well thought out, plus by placing of Germany in Group A, and Brazil in Group F, FIFA is making it easier for conspiracy theorists to insinuate there is an agenda with specific desired outcomes.

However, if one desired outcome is a knock out match between Spain and Portugal, I'd have to call into question the likelihood of the Czech Republic and USA landing in the same group with Spain. I think most pundits would predict the Czech Republic would likely win the group with USA the likely runner-up.

[Elninho]

I wouldn't go so far as to to call the USA likely runner-up... but certainly both the US and Paraguay would give Spain a hard time.

Actually, I'd like to see what kind of draw would give Trinidad & Tobago the best chance. They've already benefited from what looked like a pretty badly rigged group in a CONCACAF preliminary round (Mexico, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Kitts & Nevis) - which, no, wasn't intended for Mexico's benefit, they would have advanced to the Hex in any other group. Now, is there any way to make T&T's advancement likely? The CONCACAF preliminary formula was perfect - the strongest possible seed, meaning that even if T&T couldn't upset Mexico, neither could anyone else; and two weak opponents in a group where 2 out of 4 advanced. Is that the formula that works in the World Cup?

[jec1]

Germany is not as good as they once were -- lack of youth development perhaps

you know what i think they will play subpar not that great.

[karny9]

the only problem i have with that is that you probably gave germany and brazil easy groups, based on your opinions of the teams, not Fifa's, so that will definately change

[leonidas]

I think it would be funny if Brazil were drawn with Costa Rica again. That would make three times that we got them in recent memory (90, 02, and 06).

But I do think that there's definitely some sort of conspiracy out there. Brazil has always had an easy group. Always. Not sure if that's just luck of the draw or what.

As for US's group you posted. I dont think US gets out there alive. Czechs finish first. Then it's a horse race for the others. If Roque Santa Cruz can recover well in the next few months, I'd be careful with Paraguay. I think they could even give the Czechs a run for their money. And I think people count Spain out too easily. But we'll see...

[Elninho]

That said... if Paraguay beats the US, it's an upset. Paraguay has never beaten the US before.

[bwiorly]

However, if one desired outcome is a knock out match between Spain and Portugal, I'd have to call into question the likelihood of the Czech Republic and USA landing in the same group with Spain. I think most pundits would predict the Czech Republic would likely win the group with USA the likely runner-up.

Point well taken. However, the Spain vs. Portugal match-up is definitely not the backbone of my theory. In addition, 2nd places in first-round groups being so hard to predict, I think my conspiracy theory draw gives us as good a chance as any other draw to have a Spain-Portugal match-up in the round of 16--my logic being that with my draw, Spain-Portugal could be a 1G-2H match-up as much as it could be a 1H-2G match-up.

Now of course in my draw there's always the possibility of Spain and Portugal both finishing first (or second) in their respective groups, but what I'm shooting for with my model is a draw that would provide the highest probability of a Spain-Portugal match-up along with other round of 16 games that would be ideal from the perspective of FIFA and the German organizers.

With that in mind, I'd still love to see other people's conspiracy theory draws between now and Friday afternoon.

[Springbok FC]

Actually, I'd like to see what kind of draw would give Trinidad & Tobago the best chance. They've already benefited from what looked like a pretty badly rigged group in a CONCACAF preliminary round (Mexico, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Kitts & Nevis) - which, no, wasn't intended for Mexico's benefit, they would have advanced to the Hex in any other group.

Are you kidding? That's a joke, right? Who in the world has ever given a second thought about T&T before they beat Bahrain? The answer: nobody. And, honestly, there was no difficult group in the concacaf prelims. Also, I don't know how many of you actually saw the T&T/Bahrain matches, but the Soca Warriors look pretty awful. Don't get me wrong, I'll be cheering for them, but I wouldn't be surprised if they finished dead last in Germany.

[Springbok FC]

That said... if Paraguay beats the US, it's an upset. Paraguay has never beaten the US before.

I disagree. Paraguay's pedigree is far more polished than ours. It would be a minor upset if the US won this matchup -- especially on European soil where we have never impressed.

[Buschkauz]

thats the way it goes

germany
togo
poland
trinidad

england
ivory coast
paraguay
holland