Pool ratings -- One-Page Document

[Justin Z]

I have posted a one-page rich text document here (http://members.cox.net/racd/pools.rtf). It is formatted into the four pools, with each team's ELO rating, relative rating against the other World Cup teams, and their ELO points. Hopefully it will be handy for the draw. Also, let me know if I've made any errors.

~Justin

P.S. Microsoft word format is here (http://members.cox.net/racd/pools.doc).

[karny9]

I don't really understand why Mexico is seeded and the US are not, especially since the US has more points accoriding to that chart

[Charlie Beagle]

I don't really understand why Mexico is seeded and the US are not, especially since the US has more points accoriding to that chart

Niether of USA and Mexico should be seeded. ARGGHHHH

[Justin Z]

The simple answer is that FIFA doesn't use ELO-Chess ratings in their seeding formula. As a predictor I think ELO-Chess is a good statistical measure of a team's relative strength against its opponents.

[edvc_van]

I don't really understand why Mexico is seeded and the US are not, especially since the US has more points accoriding to that chart

Stop complaining. The Netherlands has more points than any other team except brazil and they aren't seeded and don't complain about it

[SectionX]

I don't really understand why Mexico is seeded and the US are not, especially since the US has more points accoriding to that chart

the netherlands deserves to be seeded over both usa and mexico.

[Justin Z]

Agree with both of the last two posts, which is why I think the ELO-Chess rating is more accurate to put on a chart like this than the FIFA ranking. . . . which is why I did it that way. Hopefully it will help give you some idea of who you want in your group (and who you don't).

[Guinho]

PRetty funny that according to the ELO, Germany, the #2 from the last world cup and host, shouldn't be seeded in favor of the Czech Republic. Hmm... maybe that raises some eyebrows too.

Of course, in FIFAland, performance at the world cup counts for something, hence CR and the Netherlands losing out. But you all knew that already.

[Justin Z]

True, there's not a weighting component on ELO ratings -- it is a purely statistical measure. Of course, no rating system is going to be foolproof, but the general consensus seems to be that there are far better systems than the one FIFA uses -- which happens to include very specific rewards for performance in high level tournaments -- to choose seeds.

[karny9]

Niether of USA and Mexico should be seeded. ARGGHHHH

well obviously, but im thinking in terms of mexico over usa, rather than mexico over netherlands

[Undetermined]

The fact of the matter is, Holland didn't qualify for the last World Cup. Talent-wise, for sure they're much much much better than Mexico, or even some of the other seeded teams. Nevertheless, as their coach said, you can't really complain when you didn't even play the last time around.

Mexico definitely got the biggest advantage though. There's not much to differ them and the US I think, especially since the Americans beat them in 2002. But the Mexicans avoid all the top teams, and even if they draw a massive Euro Team like Holland or the Czechs from pool 3, they'll still get two relatively weak teams from 2 and 4. The US, meanwhile will surely draw a powerhouse from the seeds as well as at worst a very decent euro team and at best a Portugal/Holland.

Worst Case for Mexico: Holland, Japan, Paraguay
compare that to
Worst Case for USA: Italy, Holland, Paraguay

At least if a deserving Euro team gets shafted from the seeds, they can still avoid most of the other 'strong' teams except for the one seeded team.