Connelly & Chang: US should want Germany

[cdin]

These are two articles about the Draw and seeding process.
They are also perfect examples as to why I am baffled that Chang and ESPN let Connelly go. I guess that they don't like well reasoned journalism.

Connelly: World Cup experience to draw upon-MLSNet.com (http://www.mlsnet.com/MLS/news/mls_news.jsp?ymd=20051206&content_id=49136&vkey=news_mls&fext=.jsp)

Chang: Mexico undeserving of a seed-ESPN.com (http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=351428&root=worldcup&cc=5901)

[ursula]

Hoping to get the host nation in the World Cup is historically a pretty bad idea. You have to expect Germany will be one of the two teams in their group to advance. That leaves three teams fighting for one spot. Those other two teams probably won't be cupcakes- at least the other Euro team won't.

Chang's tired Mexico argument is just annoying.

[ohk4]

if we draw Germany, we will lose the friendly in March, which I don't want to lose for selfish reasons.

[Gints86]

Both articles are pretty good. I am a little surprized though that Germany is the pick in both that the US should draw. The 12th man could be hard to overcome even if we play well against them. Given the other seeds though I can certainly see the reasoning.

[cpwilson80]

Interesting theory, and I'd agree with the familiarity and awe factor...if this World Cup was anywhere but Germany.

Home team = bad. Hell, even we advanced in '94!

[Lloyd Heilbrunn]

Don't buy it, Italy,or Spain for me. Historic first round "skin of their teethers", plus Germany is much less likely to take us lightly. France would be next choice....

[Joel Kennedy]

stepping up on my soap box

He could care less what being a seeded team "means."

can professional writers please use the correct phrase? (or use it correctly ... either one)

off soap box.

[Serie Zed]

If you take Germany's home field advantage into account the only team better (statistically) is Brazil.

We do NOT want Germany. South Korea made the semis for godsake.

[MikeLastort2]

It's insane to want to draw the host nation.

And saying Mexico doesn't deserve a seed is just plain stupid.

[GoDC]

Who cares. We have to go 1-1-1 or better to advance. no matter who we draw there will be 3 pretty tough games coming up.

[Colin Grabow]

France, Italy and Spain each play a much different style. They're also a bit unfamiliar to the U.S., as only Greg Vanney has experience playing in one of their home leagues of the current player pool.

Uh, Kasey Keller.

I also disagree with his analysis -- I want no part of Germany. This logic that we already know them and therefore shouldn't fear them has been trotted out before. Anyone remember France 98'? On that team we had the following players with Germany experience: McBride, Moore, Reyna, Agoos, Dooley, Wynalda, Deering and Regis.

Whole lot of good that did us.

EDIT: In fact, I would say that Germany would be particularly bad because while we may know them that conversely they certainly know us. You think Klinsmann will overlook Arena and the US? Not likely -- especially after the scare the US gave them last time around. We most definitely do not want Germany.

[JRstriker12]

Connelly makes a good case for playing Germany. It would be sweet to get them back for 2002.

However, I think this also makes a good case that the US needs to try to get more games against the better teams in our hemisphere (I know they are not in our confereration). Maybe it's not something US Soccer has total control over and it may be tough since they are in another confederation. But we should do everything we can to play against a Brazil or Argentina to help raise our game.

[Ghost]

These are two articles about the Draw and seeding process.
They are also perfect examples as to why I am baffled that Chang and ESPN let Connelly go. I guess that they don't like well reasoned journalism.

Connelly: World Cup experience to draw upon-MLSNet.com (http://www.mlsnet.com/MLS/news/mls_news.jsp?ymd=20051206&content_id=49136&vkey=news_mls&fext=.jsp)

Chang: Mexico undeserving of a seed-ESPN.com (http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=351428&root=worldcup&cc=5901)

Connelly is a good writer, but Soccernet is a lot better with the current appproach of having many writers contributing from all over the place,rather than two NewYork-area based guys. A lot more copy and a lot morevariety. Woulda been nice to have kept Connelly as a writer, but maybe that would have been a little hard to do.

[Dom. FC]

I think an economist with expertise at game theory might be able to say it better but I think wanting the weakest of the 'best' eight is only valid if winning the group is the desired outcome. In terms of advancement wouldn't having the strongest of the eight be best because the other two teams in the group would be least likely to take any points off of them? Ideal then might be to have that strongest team as the last group match after they are likely already through? Especially if a draw with them or even a better goal differential are what you need to get on to the next round. And I also think you then avoid them in the early parts of the knock-out rounds if you came from the same group.

[Sachsen]

Connelly probably would've said that the U.S. wasn't very familiar with Portugal's "style" in '02.

I don't remember there being much of an awe factor in that game. An Agoos factor, maybe.

Bring on Spain or Italy. They would underestimate us and would be Portugal Part II just waiting to happen.

[QuakeAttack]

It's insane to want to draw the host nation.

And saying Mexico doesn't deserve a seed is just plain stupid.

What he said...

[Rowray]

Surprisingly, neither one mentions the fact that if you draw Germany, you could be playing in the opening game. If not the opening game, still an early game in the tournament. It's much better to get a later game as it settles the nerves. Bruce talked about this at the Nike Friendlies. He didn't want Brazil and he didn't want a group that played on one of the first days of the tournament.

Also, I'd prefer Ecuador above any African team simply because we are so used to playing hispanic teams.

My ideal group would be Italy, Poland, and Ecuador...getting Italy in the first game - no doubt the most pompous of all the Eurosnobs would take us lightly and in all honesty, I think we've got a better team. Poland to avenge the '02 loss and I already commented on Ecuador.

I'd prefer to hit England, Germany, France and Argentina in the knockout rounds.

[dcc134]

I'm not sure Italy would take us lightly as they will remember us going toe to toe with them in Sicily in 2002. They will also remember how they were handle quite easily by Mexico last time and how we easily handled Mexico.

So no, of the big Euro teams I think Italy is less likely to take us lightly than the others, but I still wouldn't mind drawing them as I think they are vastly overated.

I'm pretty sure none of the teams will take us lightly as we have had more than enough results over the last 5 years to make them all pay attention.

We aren't sneaking up on anyone.

[cdin]

Connelly is a good writer, but Soccernet is a lot better with the current appproach of having many writers contributing from all over the place,rather than two NewYork-area based guys. A lot more copy and a lot morevariety. Woulda been nice to have kept Connelly as a writer, but maybe that would have been a little hard to do.
I agree that it is good to have a variety of opinions, but that is not why Connelly was kicked out. According to the Logan's Revenge Blog (supposedly this is Jeff Bradley) he was kicked out because he wasn't controversial enough. When I e-mailed Connelly he said that wasn't exactly true but that it was because he and Chang (ESPN Soccernet's editor) had a "deference of opinion." Which makes me thing that the Logan's revenge blog was pretty close.

Overall, I think Jen Chang is an idiot. This is the guy that suggested that Marvel Wynne should be consider for the 06 world cup squad. While I may not always agree with Connelly, at the very least his articles are well reasoned and thought out.

[wjarrettc]

EDIT: In fact, I would say that Germany would be particularly bad because while we may know them that conversely they certainly know us. You think Klinsmann will overlook Arena and the US? Not likely -- especially after the scare the US gave them last time around. We most definitely do not want Germany.

Klinsmann is probably the least likely international coach in the world to under-estimate US Soccer. My impression is that he is intimately familiar with MLS and our international team, probably more so than any other international coach (including Mexico?)