Best and worst case groups?

[Golazo]

The pots are in. My best and worst case groups for the US:

Worst
USA
BRA
NED
SCG

Best
USA
ESP
CRO
TOG

[Serie Zed]

See here for all 468 possible US groups, ranked according to aggregate ELO ratings points, adjusted with a 100-point home field bonus (per ELO) for Germany.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6883362&postcount=33
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6883362&postcount=34 (showpost.php?p=6883362&postcount=33)

btw...good guess on the worst case -- that's the 6th worst of 468 (according to ELO anyhow).

[suppitty]

PLEASE, draw us with Switzerland, Poland, Croatia, or Ukraine out of the European group. Otherwise it is going to be very difficult.

[scaryice]

Best

Spain
Switzerland
Angola

Worst

Brazil
Netherlands
Australia

[Serie Zed]

See here for all 468 possible US groups, ranked according to aggregate ELO ratings points, adjusted with a 100-point home field bonus (per ELO) for Germany.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6883362&postcount=33
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6883374&postcount=34

[GersMan]

Pool One: Germany (hosts), Brazil (champions), Italy, France, Argentina, Spain, Mexico, England

Pool Two: Australia, Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Tunisia, Ecuador, Paraguay

Pool Three: Croatia, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine

Pool Four: Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, United States

Special pot: Serbia & Montenegro


My best would be

USA - England - Angola - Switzerland - Trinidad (is there no stipulation keeping teams from the same regional fed away from each other?)

That said, we are not in a position to overlook anyone.

My worst:

USA - Brazil - Paraguay - Holland.

It's just not a statistical enterprise.

[Autogolazo]

Worst case:

Brazil
Holland
Ivory Coast/Ghana
USA

Best case:

Spain
Poland
Tunisia
USA

I think Swtizerland, at this moment, are better than Poland. Plus, we have a major payback factor against the Poles.

[Golazo]

Had to do a do-over on mine. I'm pretty sure every group MUST have two Euro teams.

Also, GersMan, I think there is a stipulation that (except for UEFA), you cannot have two teams from the same Confederation in the same group. Pity for us really.

[NASL Fan]

Had to do a do-over on mine. I'm pretty sure every group MUST have two Euro teams.

Also, GersMan, I think there is a stipulation that (except for UEFA), you cannot have two teams from the same Confederation in the same group. Pity for us really.
There are 14 European teams, so two groups will have only one European team--those two groups will be two of the three headed by Brazil, Argentina or Mexico

My mock draw this morning:

Germany, Paraguay, Croatia, S Korea
Brazil, Ghana, Portugal, Japan
England, Tunisia, Czech. Rep., Costa Rica
Argentina, Australia, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia
Mexico, Ivory Coast, Ukraine, Serbia and Montenegro
Italy, Ecuador, Poland, Trinidad and Tobago
Spain, Angola, Switzerland, USA
France, Togo, Sweden, Iran

balanced groups came out... No group of death, really. Great draw for US.

Also, I think the global consensus would be that the US is the best team in the last pot. We're what Nigeria was in the last World Cup: the one team from that pot no one wants to draw. So the worst possible group of death for the World Cup would be:

Brazil, Netherlands, Ghana? USA
or
France, Netherlands, Australia?, USA

[NASL Fan]

My best would be

USA - England - Angola - Switzerland - Trinidad (is there no stipulation keeping teams from the same regional fed away from each other?)

That said, we are not in a position to overlook anyone.

My worst:

USA - Brazil - Paraguay - Holland.



Neither of those groups could happen, since Trinidad is in the same Pot as the US and since two teams from the same confederation (Brazil, Paraguay) cannot be draw with each other except for the Europeans, of course.

[cpwilson80]

Among the seeds, my preference is Spain by far, followed by France, England, and Italy (though I have a feeling with Toni, Gilardino and Pirlo they'll be more dangerous than in '02.) We obviously can't draw Mexico, and I want nothing to do with Brazil, Argentina, or Germany at home.

Poland, Croatia, and Switzerland are my preferred teams out of Group 3.

I know very little about Pot 2 (shocker), and will merely wait and see what happens.

[ZippityDooDaa]

Bra
Usa
Ned
Ivo

[Davids26]

Just ran two draws according to the rules. Plus instead of going down the line, I also drew up papers that said A2-A4, B2-B4 etc. like they do for the draw anyways and placed them in the groups so as to make it more random.

My first:
A: Germany, Togo, USA, Poland
B: Spain, Czech Republic, Tunisia, T&T
C: France, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Ecuador
D: Mexico, Paraguay, S&M, Portugal
E: England, Iran, Sweden, Ghana
F: Brazil, Ivory Coast, Ukraine, Japan
G: Argentina, Korea, Holland, Australia
H: Italy, Croatia, Angola, Saudi Arabia

Second:
A: Germany, Kora, Australia, Croatia
B: France, Iran, Ukraine, Ivory Coast
C: Spain, Switzerland, Tunisia, Costa Rica
D: England, USA, Sweden, Paraguay
E: Argentina, Japan, Holland, Angola
F: Brazil, S&M, Ghana, Portugal
G: Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Czech Republic
H: Italy, T&T, Poland, Togo

First draw I could ive with, but having to go against two big (size-wise) Euro teams will be difficult. With that said, I believe we'll be taking a bigger team to Germany than we did to Korea, and we could handle Poland. Togo I know is very disciplined, but we could also do the business against them. This would be a very tight group.

Draw 2 is just about our worst nightmare, only thing that could make it worse is if Portugal, Czech, or Holland were drawn instead of Sweden.

After doing mock draws for the past few days, I'm glad they've made a special pot for S&M, which guarantees one group won't have the chance of being overloaded with 2 of the Czech's, Holland, and Portugal + one of Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico. I'm glad FIFA recognized this.

Friday can't come soon enough.

[Cyclone]

I watched (live) Ghana destroy South Africa here in Joburg in a qualifier. Not that SA is that tough, but Ghana looked really solid. I'd like to avoid them.

Anyone else worried about having Australia, just from the Hiddink/Beasley point of view? Say we get Australia in our group (normally not a terrible draw). Then Hiddink is the coach of one of our key players. Knows more about him than anyone else, controls his training, playing time, etc. For example, he can have his Austrailian player Cucina (or something like that) get tons of practice time vs Bease.

I'm not suggesting a hugely-inappropriate conspiracy-theory-magnitude inappropriate conduct by Hiddink to the detriment of PSV, etc. But I don't think I'd like that situation all winter.

[Dave216J]

The seed will be tough even if it is a weaker seed like Spain or France; in some ways this will be even worse because at least we know that Brazil will beat everyone, whereas Spain might give points to our rivals.

The Euro spot has four teams that are acceptable (Switzerland, Croatia, Poland, Ukraine) and four that are quite tough (Netherlands, Czech, Sweden, Portugal).

The other pot has four teams that are competitive (Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Paraguay, Australia) and four that we will expect to beat (Togo, Angola, Tunisia, Ecuador).

So basically, we have a 50/50 chance of getting a Euro team that we can do well again, and a 50/50 chance to have an easy team from the other pot. Overall, 25% chance of a great draw (seed, Angola, Poland), a 25% chance of a horrible draw (seed, Netherlands, Ghana), and a 50% chance of a mediocre draw (seed, Sweden, Tunisia).

We will only have a draw where we are expected to move on 1 time in 4...

[Serie Zed]

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6890357&postcount=61
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6890364&postcount=62

Updated list of all 428 possible groups the US could be drawn into. Removed the Serbia + UEFA seeds to reflect the "special pot" for S&M.

[Serie Zed]

25 worst groups:

Brazil Australia Netherlands
Brazil Australia Czechs
Germany Australia Netherlands
Germany Paraguay Netherlands
Brazil Tunisia Netherlands
Brazil Ivory Coast Netherlands
France Australia Netherlands
France Paraguay Netherlands
Germany Australia Czechs
Germany Ecuador Netherlands
Germany Paraguay Czechs
England Australia Netherlands
Spain Australia Netherlands
England Paraguay Netherlands
Brazil Tunisia Czechs
Brazil Australia Portugal
Spain Paraguay Netherlands
Brazil Ivory Coast Czechs
France Australia Czechs
France Ecuador Netherlands
Germany Tunisia Netherlands
Brazil Australia Sweden
France Paraguay Czechs
Germany Ecuador Czechs
Germany Ivory Coast Netherlands

25 best groups:

Germany Angola Switzerland
Spain Togo Switzerland
England Togo Ukraine
Argentina Togo Serbia
Italy Ghana Switzerland
Argentina Ghana Switzerland
Germany Angola Ukraine
Spain Togo Ukraine
Italy Ghana Ukraine
Argentina Ghana Ukraine
Italy Togo Switzerland
Argentina Togo Switzerland
France Angola Switzerland
Italy Togo Ukraine
Argentina Togo Ukraine
France Angola Ukraine
England Angola Switzerland
Spain Angola Switzerland
England Angola Ukraine
Argentina Angola Serbia
Spain Angola Ukraine
Italy Angola Switzerland
Argentina Angola Switzerland
Italy Angola Ukraine
Argentina Angola Ukraine

[kingjackdaniel]

Please let us be in England's group. I don't care if it is the group of death, I want to play(and beat) England!!!

That could very well shut up all of the "Eurosnobs" that showed up in droves for the England games.

[Kilmer17]

I think it's a mistake to look at the possibilities this way. Those are the worst possible groups for the US to WIN, but not necessarily to advance.

I dont think there is a way to determine the latter. For example, people assume having Brazil in our group is bad. I disagree. Brazil is the most likely team to win all of their group games. As such, we can assume we will lose, but there is little chance that one of the other teams will steal points from them.

The final (read easiest) group has us with Germany as the seed. They seem to be the most likely to drop points in the group stage, ESPECIALLY if they win their first 2. Thus allowing a lesser side to get points that the US would not.

While "winning" the group would be nice, simply advancing is the goal.

[Davids26]

I think it's a mistake to look at the possibilities this way. Those are the worst possible groups for the US to WIN, but not necessarily to advance.

I dont think there is a way to determine the latter. For example, people assume having Brazil in our group is bad. I disagree. Brazil is the most likely team to win all of their group games. As such, we can assume we will lose, but there is little chance that one of the other teams will steal points from them.

The final (read easiest) group has us with Germany as the seed. They seem to be the most likely to drop points in the group stage, ESPECIALLY if they win their first 2. Thus allowing a lesser side to get points that the US would not.

While "winning" the group would be nice, simply advancing is the goal.

It really depends on who Brazil is drawn with. If they're drawn with Holland, Czech, or Portugal, I could see them dropping points... On top of that we'd not only have to play Brazil but one of those three teams which would hurt us even more...

Either way it will be tough.