Current odds of winning WC

[kal-el]

Below are what the contracts for the 32 WC participants to win the cup are currently trading for on tradesports.com. Conceptually, these figures equal the probability of each team winning.

Brazil 23.3
Argentina 11.4
England 11.1
Germany 9.5
Italy 7.4
Holland 7.3
France 5.6
Spain 5.4
Czech Republic 4.1
Portugal 3.7
Sweden 2.0
USA 1.7
Mexico 1.5
Croatia 0.9
South Korea 0.9
Japan 0.9
Australia 0.8
Trinidad & Tobago 0.6
Ukraine 0.6
Serbia & Montenagro 0.5
Ghana 0.5
Poland 0.5
Tunisia 0.5
Paraguay 0.5
Ivory Coast 0.4
Switzerland 0.4
Angola 0.3
Togo 0.3
Iran 0.2
Ecuador 0.1
Sauda Arabia 0.1
Costa Rica 0.1

Total=103.0

These contracts were posted fairly recently, so I think the numbers are still settling in, but there are some interesting observations already:

1) The US has the 12th best chance to win--slightly ahead of Mexico.
2) The values for the top ten teams (everyone through Portugal) add up to 89.
3) The eight projected seeds are ranked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 13.

Within the pots posted at the link below, here is the ranking of each team's chances of winning:

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=274635

A: Brazil, Argentina, England, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Mexico
B: Australia, Ghana, Tunisia (tie), Paraguay (tie), Ivory Coast, Angola, Togo (tie), Ecuador
C: Netherlands, Czech, Portugal, Sweden, Croatia, Ukraine, Serbia, Poland (tie), Switzerland
D: USA, South Korea, Japan (tie), T&T, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica (tie)

[sizal9]

Below are what the contracts for the 32 WC participants to win the cup are currently trading for on tradesports.com. Conceptually, these figures equal the probability of each team winning.

Brazil 23.3
Argentina 11.4
England 11.1
Germany 9.5
Italy 7.4
Holland 7.3
France 5.6
Spain 5.4
Czech Republic 4.1
Portugal 3.7
Sweden 2.0
USA 1.7
Mexico 1.5
Croatia 0.9
South Korea 0.9
Japan 0.9
Australia 0.8
Trinidad & Tobago 0.6
Ukraine 0.6
Serbia & Montenagro 0.5
Ghana 0.5
Poland 0.5
Tunisia 0.5
Paraguay 0.5
Ivory Coast 0.4
Switzerland 0.4
Angola 0.3
Togo 0.3
Iran 0.2
Ecuador 0.1
Sauda Arabia 0.1
Costa Rica 0.1

Total=103.0

These contracts were posted fairly recently, so I think the numbers are still settling in, but there are some interesting observations already:

1) The US has the 12th best chance to win--slightly ahead of Mexico.
2) The values for the top ten teams (everyone through Portugal) add up to 89.
3) The eight projected seeds are ranked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 13.

Within the pots posted at the link below, here is the ranking of each team's chances of winning:

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=274635

A: Brazil, Argentina, England, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Mexico
B: Australia, Ghana, Tunisia (tie), Paraguay (tie), Ivory Coast, Angola, Togo (tie), Ecuador
C: Netherlands, Czech, Portugal, Sweden, Croatia, Ukraine, Serbia, Poland (tie), Switzerland
D: USA, South Korea, Japan (tie), T&T, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica (tie)
How the hell does T&T have more chances of winning the world cup than the Ukraine and Serbia and Montenegro

[kal-el]

How the hell does T&T have more chances of winning the world cup than the Ukraine and Serbia and Montenegro

I think this is largely a function of the values at the low end of the spectrum still settling down. What I posted was the last amount a contract for the country traded for. The range for T&T between the highest bid and lowest ask is currently 0.3 and 0.7. The range for Serbia and Montenegro is 0.5 and 1.2. The range for the Ukraine is 0.6 and 1.4. So it just happens that the last trade for T&T was at the high end of the range and the last trades for the other two countries were at the low end.

So the numbers at the low end are somewhat misleading. I think they'll settle into narrower bands as the trading picks up.