Group of death analysis

[tomvandamn]

This is assuming bilds 4 pots are corrected as listed below
the brackets are just probablities before the draw starts once the procedure is revealed tommorow this could change


Brazil (african country or australia)(2 euro teams possible),(any or none if 2 euros picked)
Argentina (african country or australia) (2 euro teams possible),(any or none if 2 euros picked)
Mexico (any),(2 euro teams possible),(asian team or none if 2 euros picked)
Germany (any),(1euro team),
France (any),(1euro team),
Italy (any),(1euro team),
Spain (any),(1euro team),
England (any),(1euro team),


Ivory Coast(any)(any)(any)
Ghana(any)(any)(any)
Tunisia(any)(any)(any)
Angola(any)(any)(any)
Togo(any)(any)(any)
Paraguay(5euros or mexico) (any)(any)
Ecuador(5euros or mexico) (any)(any)
Australia(any)(any)(any)

Holland (any)(any)(any)
Portugal(any)(any)(any)
Czech Rep.(any)(any)(any)
Sweden(any)(any)(any)
Croatia(any)(any)(any)
Serbia(any)(any)(any)
Ukraine(any)(any)(any)
Switzerland(any)(any)(any)
Poland (any)(any)(any)


USA(5euros or bra,arg)
Costa Rica(5euros or bra,arg)
T&T(5euros or bra,arg)
Japan(any)(any)(any)
S.Korea(any)(any)(any)
Iran(any)(any)(any)
SArabia(any)(any)(any)



Each bracket represents a pot 2,3 and 4


Brazil (african country or australia)(2 euro teams possible),(any or none if 2 euros picked)
Argentina (african country or australia) (2 euro teams possible),(any or none if 2 euros picked)
Mexico (any),(2 euro teams possible),(asian team or none if 2 euros picked)
Germany (any),(1euro team),(any)
France (any),(1euro team),(any)
Italy (any),(1euro team),(any)
Spain (any),(1euro team),(any)
England (any),(1euro team),(any)

So who is going to get the 2 euro countries
Brazil--unlikely but since theyre such big favorites fifa might give em two but if this happens dont expect holland/czech or sweden/portugal

Argentina-they got england and sweden last time and got knocked out---

Mexico-they will get their seed but this atleast on paper and politics seems the team destined to get 2 strong euro teams ala czech/portugal

Brazil and Argentina have an 80% chance of getting an african team from pot 2 while mexico is guaranteed to get an asian team unless they draw a double euro

Also whoever gets the 2 euro teams will consist of the following
Brazil,EURO1,EURO2,(African country or Australia)
Argentina,EURO1,EURO2,(African country or Australia)
Mexico,EURO1,EURO2,(any team from pot2)

The group of death can also consist of a group w/o 2 euro countries
Brazil Ivory Coast Holland USA
Argentina Ghana Sweden USA

[Andy TAUS]

Since AUS is moving to the AFC as at 1 January 2006, I predict that they (representing OCEANIA in this WC Finals) will be in the same pot as the four Asian teams (AFC), so as not to have them drawn against each other, in the group stages.

I also predict that the three remaining non-seeded (Mexico being seeded) North/Central American teams will also be in the same pot, as the five teams above.

[JanBalk]

The group of death is going whatever group gets one seeded and two Euros and the group which get US (who is clearly the strongest non-European non-seeded team (if teh seededs are done as the last WC)).

If that happens to be the same group it will really live up to the name.

[Gibraldo]

The group of death is going whatever group gets one seeded and two Euros and the group which get US (who is clearly the strongest non-European non-seeded team (if teh seededs are done as the last WC)).

If that happens to be the same group it will really live up to the name.

I don`t think so:

Mexico, Switzerland, Ukraine, Togo does not look like a group of death.
Germany, Netherlands, Paraguay, USA seems more to be one.

[JanBalk]

I don`t think so:

Mexico, Switzerland, Ukraine, Togo does not look like a group of death.
Germany, Netherlands, Paraguay, USA seems more to be one.
and the group which get US
I fail to se how Germany, Netherlands, Paraguay, USA do not contain the US.

Further I didn't mean to say that any groups that fulfill one of those conditions will be a group of death but that any group of death will fulfill one of those conditions.

[lump1]

I'm still not 100% sure I follow all the rules about groupings, but from what I've read, this sounds possible:

Brazil, Ivory Coast, Netherlands, Portugal

I hope it doesn't happen. This group would be such death it would almost spoil the tournament. In any case, with the Netherlands being not seeded, they are a necessary ingredient in every group of death. With Brazil being the best of the seeds, they are the other necessary ingredient. The only debate I'd entertain is about who the other two teams would be. And if I understand it right, one of them can be an unseeded Euro team. Besides Portugal I'd also consider the Czechs and Swedes as being pretty deathly. As far as the fourth team goes, I had the impression that Brazil must get an African team. If that's wrong and any non-Euro-or-South-American team would work, I'd say Korea. Ouch, what a death!

[ursula]

I'm still not 100% sure I follow all the rules about groupings, but from what I've read, this sounds possible:

Brazil, Ivory Coast, Netherlands, Portugal

I hope it doesn't happen.


It won't. Portugal and Holland are in the same pot and so can't be drawn with each other.

[fh 1]

The group of death could be this time: Brazil, Australia, Netherlands, Serbia :eek:

Anyways, the group with Serbia will be probably the strongest this time, as there'll be an additional European, which are all strong and one of Bra, Arg, Mex and these are anything but walkovers. There will also be an African side, which are improving from WC to WC or AUS or one of the weaker South Americans but strong enough to beat anyone.

[lump1]

It won't. Portugal and Holland are in the same pot and so can't be drawn with each other.
Got it. The pot setup was made clear on a different thread. So I ammend my suggestion: Brazil, Netherlands, Serbia, (Korea or Japan)

[titanicsmarty]

Got it. The pot setup was made clear on a different thread. So I ammend my suggestion: Brazil, Netherlands, Serbia, (Korea or Japan)

This also can't happen -- Serbia cannot be in the same group as one of the teams from pot four.

If you have Brazil, Netherlands and Serbia, the fourth team must be one of the Africans or Australia.

[o_l_coach]

A group of death should have at least 3 teams ranked in the top 15 in the world. With the way the pots are set up, the only candidates from pot 4 are the USA or Japan. The only candidates in pot 3 are the Czech Republic, Holland, Sweden or Portugal. No one in pot 2 is in the top 25.

A group of death would include a combination of the 6 teams listed and a seed.

From FIFA rankings, the highest ranking combination would be:
Brazil, Tunisia, Czech Rep., USA

On the other hand the lowest ranking combo would be:
Germany, Angola, Ukraine, T&T

[Colm]

theres always a group of death in each world cup

1986

Denmark
West Germany
Hungary
Scotland

1990

England
Ireland
Holland
Egypt

1994

Mexico
Ireland
Italy
Norway

1998

Nigeria
Paraguay
Spain
Bulgaria

2002

Sweden
England
Argentina
Nigeria

[MassachusettsRef]

A "group of death" has always, in my mind at least, been defined as one where 4 teams of relatively equal quality that are all expected to progress far in the tournament (prior to the draw) are grouped together. A group with Brazil, Netherlands and the next two best possible teams (Ivory Coast and USA, maybe?) is a very, very tough group, but it's not a Group of Death because most rational people will overwhelmingly still pick Brazil and Netherlands to advance. Such a group would spell unfortunate death for the USA and Ivory Coast, but it would not be the vaunted "Group of Death"

A true "Group of Death" should have most fans incapable of being certain as to which two teams will progress. 2002 provides a great example (England, Argentina, Sweden, Nigeria) as does 1998 (Spain, Nigeria, Paraguay, Bulgaria). The alleged "groups of death" from 1994 (Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway) and 1990 (England, Ireland, Netherlands, Egypt) were not really all that tough to predict, since three teams could progress and most were able to accurately predict that Norway and Egypt wouldn't make the second round.

In my mind, because parity has increased so much in recent years, there are several different combinations that could constitute this year's Group of Death. First, because I think such a group shouldn't have Argentina, Brazil or Germany, because almost everyone expects those 3 to advance easily (from the seeds). I'd also leave aside Mexico for a second (although there is a scenario where Mexico could head the Group of Death). The toughest two teams, unquestionably in my mind, in the second pot are Ivory Coast and Paraguay. The third post does have the Dutch, but they are favorites in any group not headed by Brazil, so leave them aside and focus on the Czechs, Portuguese and Swedes. Finally, the USA, Koreans and Japanese are the toughest in Pot 4. So, a Group of Death will have some combination of the following teams:

A England/Spain/France/Italy
B Ivory Coast/Paraguay
C Czech Republic/Sweden/Portugal
D USA/Korea/Japan

Any combination of 4 you make from those above teams and you have a group that most fans would disagree significantly on as to who would advance to the second round. Spain/Paraguay/Sweden/Japan would not contain any favorites to win the World Cup, but it would undoubtedly still constitute a true "Group of Death".

Finally, Mexico could lead the Group of Death if it draws Serbia and any of the teams I listed from Pots B and C above. Again, there'd be no favorites to win the Cup from such a group, but most would have a difficult time deciding which 2 would progress.

[tamachan]

Brazil
Netherlands
Ghana
Serbia & Montenegro


Even the Brasilians would be worried with this one :eek:

[sinner78]

Id put ivory coast above ghana .But yeah that group is a real tough cookie.

[Fiorentina lives!]

Let me try a guess:

England
Portugal
USA
Paraguay
:D

Or a decaf one:

Mexico
Serbia-Montenegro
Sweden
Paraguay

[Fiorentina lives!]

On the other hand you could have the anti-death group:

Germany
Switzerland
Togo
Trinidad & Tobago

Just to make sure the hosts are awrightie :p

[Team Melli forever]

Brazil
Czech/Holland
Paraguay/CIV
Iran/US

There's your group of death

[tamachan]

A "group of death" has always, in my mind at least, been defined as one where 4 teams of relatively equal quality that are all expected to progress far in the tournament (prior to the draw) are grouped together. A group with Brazil, Netherlands and the next two best possible teams (Ivory Coast and USA, maybe?) is a very, very tough group, but it's not a Group of Death because most rational people will overwhelmingly still pick Brazil and Netherlands to advance. Such a group would spell unfortunate death for the USA and Ivory Coast, but it would not be the vaunted "Group of Death"

A true "Group of Death" should have most fans incapable of being certain as to which two teams will progress. 2002 provides a great example (England, Argentina, Sweden, Nigeria) as does 1998 (Spain, Nigeria, Paraguay, Bulgaria). The alleged "groups of death" from 1994 (Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway) and 1990 (England, Ireland, Netherlands, Egypt) were not really all that tough to predict, since three teams could progress and most were able to accurately predict that Norway and Egypt wouldn't make the second round.

In my mind, because parity has increased so much in recent years, there are several different combinations that could constitute this year's Group of Death. First, because I think such a group shouldn't have Argentina, Brazil or Germany, because almost everyone expects those 3 to advance easily (from the seeds). I'd also leave aside Mexico for a second (although there is a scenario where Mexico could head the Group of Death). The toughest two teams, unquestionably in my mind, in the second pot are Ivory Coast and Paraguay. The third post does have the Dutch, but they are favorites in any group not headed by Brazil, so leave them aside and focus on the Czechs, Portuguese and Swedes. Finally, the USA, Koreans and Japanese are the toughest in Pot 4. So, a Group of Death will have some combination of the following teams:

A England/Spain/France/Italy
B Ivory Coast/Paraguay
C Czech Republic/Sweden/Portugal
D USA/Korea/Japan

Any combination of 4 you make from those above teams and you have a group that most fans would disagree significantly on as to who would advance to the second round. Spain/Paraguay/Sweden/Japan would not contain any favorites to win the World Cup, but it would undoubtedly still constitute a true "Group of Death".

Finally, Mexico could lead the Group of Death if it draws Serbia and any of the teams I listed from Pots B and C above. Again, there'd be no favorites to win the Cup from such a group, but most would have a difficult time deciding which 2 would progress.

If they draw pot 3 last cant Serbia be grouped with a team from pot 4?

[Autogolazo]

Mexico Holland Serbia Paraguay

That's one possible GofD

Argentina Holland Serbia Ivory Coast

That's pretty GofD-like, too.

Basically, a group of Bra/Arg/Mex + Serbia + Holland/Portugal/Sweden/Croatia/Czech + Aus/Iv.C./Ghana/Paraguay is going to be a Group of Death. (Paraguay can only be with Mexico).

I don't consider Ukraine-Switzerland-Poland or Togo-Angola-Tunisia-Ecuador to be Group of Death material.

THUS, Argentina and Brazil each have a 1/3 shot at getting Serbia. Add to that a 5/8 shot at a tough Euro team. Add to that a 3/6 shot (can't get Paraguay or Ecuador) at a tough Pot 2 team. What's that make? 5/48.

Looks like both Argentina and Brazil have about a 1/9 shot at a true group of death IF it's defined as having two Euros.

Mexico has a 1/3 shot at Serbia, a 4/8 shot at a tough Pot 2 team, and a 5/8 shot at a tough Euro pot team. 5/48 or 1 in 9.

If Mexico avoid Serbia, however, they stand an excellent chance of avoiding a Group of Death, as they can't face the USA and only Korea in Pot 4 (other than Serbia) is a side I think that could give people trouble.