All 468 Possible Draws Including the US

[Serie Zed]

Starting with Bild's reported pot groupings:

A: Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Spain, France, England, Mexico
B: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Angola, Togo, Tunisia, Paraguay, Ecuador, Australia
C: Netherlands, Czech, Switzerland, Ukraine, Serbia, Croatia, Sweden, Portugal, Poland
D: South Korea, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, USA, Costa Rica, T&T

And making the assumptions:

Mexico won't be paired with the US
Brazil and Argentina won't be paired with Ecuador or Paraguay


You end up with 468 possible groups that include the United States:

[Serie Zed]

Germany Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
Germany Ivory Coast Czechs USA
Germany Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
Germany Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
Germany Ivory Coast Serbia USA
Germany Ivory Coast Croatia USA
Germany Ivory Coast Sweden USA
Germany Ivory Coast Portugal USA
Germany Ivory Coast Poland USA
Germany Ghana Netherlands USA
Germany Ghana Czechs USA
Germany Ghana Switzerland USA
Germany Ghana Ukraine USA
Germany Ghana Serbia USA
Germany Ghana Croatia USA
Germany Ghana Sweden USA
Germany Ghana Portugal USA
Germany Ghana Poland USA
Germany Angola Netherlands USA
Germany Angola Czechs USA
Germany Angola Switzerland USA
Germany Angola Ukraine USA
Germany Angola Serbia USA
Germany Angola Croatia USA
Germany Angola Sweden USA
Germany Angola Portugal USA
Germany Angola Poland USA
Germany Togo Netherlands USA
Germany Togo Czechs USA
Germany Togo Switzerland USA
Germany Togo Ukraine USA
Germany Togo Serbia USA
Germany Togo Croatia USA
Germany Togo Sweden USA
Germany Togo Portugal USA
Germany Togo Poland USA
Germany Tunisia Netherlands USA
Germany Tunisia Czechs USA
Germany Tunisia Switzerland USA
Germany Tunisia Ukraine USA
Germany Tunisia Serbia USA
Germany Tunisia Croatia USA
Germany Tunisia Sweden USA
Germany Tunisia Portugal USA
Germany Tunisia Poland USA
Germany Paraguay Netherlands USA
Germany Paraguay Czechs USA
Germany Paraguay Switzerland USA
Germany Paraguay Ukraine USA
Germany Paraguay Serbia USA
Germany Paraguay Croatia USA
Germany Paraguay Sweden USA
Germany Paraguay Portugal USA
Germany Paraguay Poland USA
Germany Ecuador Netherlands USA
Germany Ecuador Czechs USA
Germany Ecuador Switzerland USA
Germany Ecuador Ukraine USA
Germany Ecuador Serbia USA
Germany Ecuador Croatia USA
Germany Ecuador Sweden USA
Germany Ecuador Portugal USA
Germany Ecuador Poland USA
Germany Australia Netherlands USA
Germany Australia Czechs USA
Germany Australia Switzerland USA
Germany Australia Ukraine USA
Germany Australia Serbia USA
Germany Australia Croatia USA
Germany Australia Sweden USA
Germany Australia Portugal USA
Germany Australia Poland USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Czechs USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Serbia USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Croatia USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Sweden USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Portugal USA
Brazil Ivory Coast Poland USA
Brazil Ghana Netherlands USA
Brazil Ghana Czechs USA
Brazil Ghana Switzerland USA
Brazil Ghana Ukraine USA
Brazil Ghana Serbia USA
Brazil Ghana Croatia USA
Brazil Ghana Sweden USA
Brazil Ghana Portugal USA
Brazil Ghana Poland USA
Brazil Angola Netherlands USA
Brazil Angola Czechs USA
Brazil Angola Switzerland USA
Brazil Angola Ukraine USA
Brazil Angola Serbia USA
Brazil Angola Croatia USA
Brazil Angola Sweden USA
Brazil Angola Portugal USA
Brazil Angola Poland USA
Brazil Togo Netherlands USA
Brazil Togo Czechs USA
Brazil Togo Switzerland USA
Brazil Togo Ukraine USA
Brazil Togo Serbia USA
Brazil Togo Croatia USA
Brazil Togo Sweden USA
Brazil Togo Portugal USA
Brazil Togo Poland USA
Brazil Tunisia Netherlands USA
Brazil Tunisia Czechs USA
Brazil Tunisia Switzerland USA
Brazil Tunisia Ukraine USA
Brazil Tunisia Serbia USA
Brazil Tunisia Croatia USA
Brazil Tunisia Sweden USA
Brazil Tunisia Portugal USA
Brazil Tunisia Poland USA
Brazil Australia Netherlands USA
Brazil Australia Czechs USA
Brazil Australia Switzerland USA
Brazil Australia Ukraine USA
Brazil Australia Serbia USA
Brazil Australia Croatia USA
Brazil Australia Sweden USA
Brazil Australia Portugal USA
Brazil Australia Poland USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Czechs USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Serbia USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Croatia USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Sweden USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Portugal USA
Argentina Ivory Coast Poland USA
Argentina Ghana Netherlands USA
Argentina Ghana Czechs USA
Argentina Ghana Switzerland USA
Argentina Ghana Ukraine USA
Argentina Ghana Serbia USA
Argentina Ghana Croatia USA
Argentina Ghana Sweden USA
Argentina Ghana Portugal USA
Argentina Ghana Poland USA
Argentina Angola Netherlands USA
Argentina Angola Czechs USA
Argentina Angola Switzerland USA
Argentina Angola Ukraine USA
Argentina Angola Serbia USA
Argentina Angola Croatia USA
Argentina Angola Sweden USA
Argentina Angola Portugal USA
Argentina Angola Poland USA
Argentina Togo Netherlands USA
Argentina Togo Czechs USA
Argentina Togo Switzerland USA
Argentina Togo Ukraine USA
Argentina Togo Serbia USA
Argentina Togo Croatia USA
Argentina Togo Sweden USA
Argentina Togo Portugal USA
Argentina Togo Poland USA
Argentina Tunisia Netherlands USA
Argentina Tunisia Czechs USA
Argentina Tunisia Switzerland USA
Argentina Tunisia Ukraine USA
Argentina Tunisia Serbia USA
Argentina Tunisia Croatia USA
Argentina Tunisia Sweden USA
Argentina Tunisia Portugal USA
Argentina Tunisia Poland USA
Argentina Australia Netherlands USA
Argentina Australia Czechs USA
Argentina Australia Switzerland USA
Argentina Australia Ukraine USA
Argentina Australia Serbia USA
Argentina Australia Croatia USA
Argentina Australia Sweden USA
Argentina Australia Portugal USA
Argentina Australia Poland USA
Italy Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
Italy Ivory Coast Czechs USA
Italy Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
Italy Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
Italy Ivory Coast Serbia USA
Italy Ivory Coast Croatia USA
Italy Ivory Coast Sweden USA
Italy Ivory Coast Portugal USA
Italy Ivory Coast Poland USA
Italy Ghana Netherlands USA
Italy Ghana Czechs USA
Italy Ghana Switzerland USA
Italy Ghana Ukraine USA
Italy Ghana Serbia USA
Italy Ghana Croatia USA
Italy Ghana Sweden USA
Italy Ghana Portugal USA
Italy Ghana Poland USA
Italy Angola Netherlands USA
Italy Angola Czechs USA
Italy Angola Switzerland USA
Italy Angola Ukraine USA
Italy Angola Serbia USA
Italy Angola Croatia USA
Italy Angola Sweden USA
Italy Angola Portugal USA
Italy Angola Poland USA
Italy Togo Netherlands USA
Italy Togo Czechs USA
Italy Togo Switzerland USA
Italy Togo Ukraine USA
Italy Togo Serbia USA
Italy Togo Croatia USA
Italy Togo Sweden USA
Italy Togo Portugal USA
Italy Togo Poland USA
Italy Tunisia Netherlands USA
Italy Tunisia Czechs USA
Italy Tunisia Switzerland USA
Italy Tunisia Ukraine USA
Italy Tunisia Serbia USA
Italy Tunisia Croatia USA
Italy Tunisia Sweden USA
Italy Tunisia Portugal USA
Italy Tunisia Poland USA
Italy Paraguay Netherlands USA
Italy Paraguay Czechs USA
Italy Paraguay Switzerland USA
Italy Paraguay Ukraine USA
Italy Paraguay Serbia USA
Italy Paraguay Croatia USA
Italy Paraguay Sweden USA
Italy Paraguay Portugal USA
Italy Paraguay Poland USA
Italy Ecuador Netherlands USA
Italy Ecuador Czechs USA
Italy Ecuador Switzerland USA
Italy Ecuador Ukraine USA

[Serie Zed]

Italy Ecuador Serbia USA
Italy Ecuador Croatia USA
Italy Ecuador Sweden USA
Italy Ecuador Portugal USA
Italy Ecuador Poland USA
Italy Australia Netherlands USA
Italy Australia Czechs USA
Italy Australia Switzerland USA
Italy Australia Ukraine USA
Italy Australia Serbia USA
Italy Australia Croatia USA
Italy Australia Sweden USA
Italy Australia Portugal USA
Italy Australia Poland USA
Spain Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
Spain Ivory Coast Czechs USA
Spain Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
Spain Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
Spain Ivory Coast Serbia USA
Spain Ivory Coast Croatia USA
Spain Ivory Coast Sweden USA
Spain Ivory Coast Portugal USA
Spain Ivory Coast Poland USA
Spain Ghana Netherlands USA
Spain Ghana Czechs USA
Spain Ghana Switzerland USA
Spain Ghana Ukraine USA
Spain Ghana Serbia USA
Spain Ghana Croatia USA
Spain Ghana Sweden USA
Spain Ghana Portugal USA
Spain Ghana Poland USA
Spain Angola Netherlands USA
Spain Angola Czechs USA
Spain Angola Switzerland USA
Spain Angola Ukraine USA
Spain Angola Serbia USA
Spain Angola Croatia USA
Spain Angola Sweden USA
Spain Angola Portugal USA
Spain Angola Poland USA
Spain Togo Netherlands USA
Spain Togo Czechs USA
Spain Togo Switzerland USA
Spain Togo Ukraine USA
Spain Togo Serbia USA
Spain Togo Croatia USA
Spain Togo Sweden USA
Spain Togo Portugal USA
Spain Togo Poland USA
Spain Tunisia Netherlands USA
Spain Tunisia Czechs USA
Spain Tunisia Switzerland USA
Spain Tunisia Ukraine USA
Spain Tunisia Serbia USA
Spain Tunisia Croatia USA
Spain Tunisia Sweden USA
Spain Tunisia Portugal USA
Spain Tunisia Poland USA
Spain Paraguay Netherlands USA
Spain Paraguay Czechs USA
Spain Paraguay Switzerland USA
Spain Paraguay Ukraine USA
Spain Paraguay Serbia USA
Spain Paraguay Croatia USA
Spain Paraguay Sweden USA
Spain Paraguay Portugal USA
Spain Paraguay Poland USA
Spain Ecuador Netherlands USA
Spain Ecuador Czechs USA
Spain Ecuador Switzerland USA
Spain Ecuador Ukraine USA
Spain Ecuador Serbia USA
Spain Ecuador Croatia USA
Spain Ecuador Sweden USA
Spain Ecuador Portugal USA
Spain Ecuador Poland USA
Spain Australia Netherlands USA
Spain Australia Czechs USA
Spain Australia Switzerland USA
Spain Australia Ukraine USA
Spain Australia Serbia USA
Spain Australia Croatia USA
Spain Australia Sweden USA
Spain Australia Portugal USA
Spain Australia Poland USA
France Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
France Ivory Coast Czechs USA
France Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
France Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
France Ivory Coast Serbia USA
France Ivory Coast Croatia USA
France Ivory Coast Sweden USA
France Ivory Coast Portugal USA
France Ivory Coast Poland USA
France Ghana Netherlands USA
France Ghana Czechs USA
France Ghana Switzerland USA
France Ghana Ukraine USA
France Ghana Serbia USA
France Ghana Croatia USA
France Ghana Sweden USA
France Ghana Portugal USA
France Ghana Poland USA
France Angola Netherlands USA
France Angola Czechs USA
France Angola Switzerland USA
France Angola Ukraine USA
France Angola Serbia USA
France Angola Croatia USA
France Angola Sweden USA
France Angola Portugal USA
France Angola Poland USA
France Togo Netherlands USA
France Togo Czechs USA
France Togo Switzerland USA
France Togo Ukraine USA
France Togo Serbia USA
France Togo Croatia USA
France Togo Sweden USA
France Togo Portugal USA
France Togo Poland USA
France Tunisia Netherlands USA
France Tunisia Czechs USA
France Tunisia Switzerland USA
France Tunisia Ukraine USA
France Tunisia Serbia USA
France Tunisia Croatia USA
France Tunisia Sweden USA
France Tunisia Portugal USA
France Tunisia Poland USA
France Paraguay Netherlands USA
France Paraguay Czechs USA
France Paraguay Switzerland USA
France Paraguay Ukraine USA
France Paraguay Serbia USA
France Paraguay Croatia USA
France Paraguay Sweden USA
France Paraguay Portugal USA
France Paraguay Poland USA
France Ecuador Netherlands USA
France Ecuador Czechs USA
France Ecuador Switzerland USA
France Ecuador Ukraine USA
France Ecuador Serbia USA
France Ecuador Croatia USA
France Ecuador Sweden USA
France Ecuador Portugal USA
France Ecuador Poland USA
France Australia Netherlands USA
France Australia Czechs USA
France Australia Switzerland USA
France Australia Ukraine USA
France Australia Serbia USA
France Australia Croatia USA
France Australia Sweden USA
France Australia Portugal USA
France Australia Poland USA
England Ivory Coast Netherlands USA
England Ivory Coast Czechs USA
England Ivory Coast Switzerland USA
England Ivory Coast Ukraine USA
England Ivory Coast Serbia USA
England Ivory Coast Croatia USA
England Ivory Coast Sweden USA
England Ivory Coast Portugal USA
England Ivory Coast Poland USA
England Ghana Netherlands USA
England Ghana Czechs USA
England Ghana Switzerland USA
England Ghana Ukraine USA
England Ghana Serbia USA
England Ghana Croatia USA
England Ghana Sweden USA
England Ghana Portugal USA
England Ghana Poland USA
England Angola Netherlands USA
England Angola Czechs USA
England Angola Switzerland USA
England Angola Ukraine USA
England Angola Serbia USA
England Angola Croatia USA
England Angola Sweden USA
England Angola Portugal USA
England Angola Poland USA
England Togo Netherlands USA
England Togo Czechs USA
England Togo Switzerland USA
England Togo Ukraine USA
England Togo Serbia USA
England Togo Croatia USA
England Togo Sweden USA
England Togo Portugal USA
England Togo Poland USA
England Tunisia Netherlands USA
England Tunisia Czechs USA
England Tunisia Switzerland USA
England Tunisia Ukraine USA
England Tunisia Serbia USA
England Tunisia Croatia USA
England Tunisia Sweden USA
England Tunisia Portugal USA
England Tunisia Poland USA
England Paraguay Netherlands USA
England Paraguay Czechs USA
England Paraguay Switzerland USA
England Paraguay Ukraine USA
England Paraguay Serbia USA
England Paraguay Croatia USA
England Paraguay Sweden USA
England Paraguay Portugal USA
England Paraguay Poland USA
England Ecuador Netherlands USA
England Ecuador Czechs USA
England Ecuador Switzerland USA
England Ecuador Ukraine USA
England Ecuador Serbia USA
England Ecuador Croatia USA
England Ecuador Sweden USA
England Ecuador Portugal USA
England Ecuador Poland USA
England Australia Netherlands USA
England Australia Czechs USA
England Australia Switzerland USA
England Australia Ukraine USA
England Australia Serbia USA
England Australia Croatia USA
England Australia Sweden USA
England Australia Portugal USA
England Australia Poland USA

[la fresa]

well i doubt any draw wouldnt include the united states


that would be terrible :eek:

[Serie Zed]

And if someone could turn those into a prettier table, I've got a bit of rep for you...

[swedust]

England - Ivory Coast - Netherlands - USA


That was the one that kind of made my skin crawl.

[ursula]

England - Ivory Coast - Netherlands - USA


That was the one that kind of made my skin crawl.


Any #1 seed with Holland and IC or Ghana make me sweat.

[Davids26]

So out of all these draws, whats everyone's "Best Case Scenario" realizing that it most likely won't happen, and drawing from the consensus on these boards that we'd be better off with a more Latin style-Euro team in our group (Spain, France, Italy) than England, Germany, Brazil, or Argentina,


Groups that have us with one of Spain, France, Italy and then some concotion of Switzerland/Ukraine/Croatia/Poland and Australia/Togo/Tunisia/Ecuador I think would be a good draw for us.

[Jegao Paraiba]

So out of all these draws, whats everyone's "Best Case Scenario" realizing that it most likely won't happen, and drawing from the consensus on these boards that we'd be better off with a more Latin style-Euro team in our group (Spain, France, Italy) than England, Germany, Brazil, or Argentina,


Groups that have us with one of Spain, France, Italy and then some concotion of Switzerland/Ukraine/Croatia/Poland and Australia/Togo/Tunisia/Ecuador I think would be a good draw for us.

I want to be in either Argentina or Italy's group, with Switzerland as the other Euro and then a crap team, maybe Togo?

Italy and Argentina need the USA smackdown more than any other seed and it would eat into their national psyche more than it would for any other seed.

[edit: ok, add france to the seed list..]

[Roma_Wolves]

Spain Togo Switzerland USA

Our best hope.

[Reccossu]

So out of all these draws, whats everyone's "Best Case Scenario" realizing that it most likely won't happen, and drawing from the consensus on these boards that we'd be better off with a more Latin style-Euro team in our group (Spain, France, Italy) than England, Germany, Brazil, or Argentina,


Groups that have us with one of Spain, France, Italy and then some concotion of Switzerland/Ukraine/Croatia/Poland and Australia/Togo/Tunisia/Ecuador I think would be a good draw for us.

With Italy, Ecuador, Ukraine, US (and treating US as = to Poland since playing in Europe) my little Monte Carlo program says the US has the following chances of finishing in each position in the group:

1 0.26454709
2 0.29354129
3 0.24475105
4 0.19696061


. . . a 55% percent chance of advancing.

Now with the group Brazil, Holland, Tunisia (highest "ranked" CAF side) (and again US = to Poland's FIFIA ranking) we get:

1 0.10537892
2 0.21535693
3 0.32013597
4 0.35892821

a 32% chance of going through.

Of course my use of FIFA's points to represent relative strength and what the program does with those points could be way off, but it's fun anyhow. Want to check any others?

[Serie Zed]

I went to ELO and got the ratings points for each of the teams we could be paired with and created a lookup table in Excel. Then did a quick sum of the ratings points our opponents would have for each possible group.

Ordered from WORST groups to the best groups:

Brazil Australia Netherlands USA 5722
Brazil Australia Czechs USA 5694
Brazil Tunisia Netherlands USA 5672
Brazil Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5666
France Australia Netherlands USA 5666
France Paraguay Netherlands USA 5660
England Australia Netherlands USA 5653
Spain Australia Netherlands USA 5648
England Paraguay Netherlands USA 5647
Brazil Tunisia Czechs USA 5644
Brazil Australia Portugal USA 5643
Spain Paraguay Netherlands USA 5642
Brazil Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5638
France Ecuador Netherlands USA 5638
France Australia Czechs USA 5638
Brazil Australia Sweden USA 5637
France Paraguay Czechs USA 5632
Italy Australia Netherlands USA 5629
Argentina Australia Netherlands USA 5628
England Ecuador Netherlands USA 5625
England Australia Czechs USA 5625
Italy Paraguay Netherlands USA 5623
Spain Ecuador Netherlands USA 5620
Spain Australia Czechs USA 5620
England Paraguay Czechs USA 5619
France Tunisia Netherlands USA 5616
Spain Paraguay Czechs USA 5614
France Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5610
France Ecuador Czechs USA 5610
England Tunisia Netherlands USA 5603
Italy Ecuador Netherlands USA 5601
Italy Australia Czechs USA 5601
Argentina Australia Czechs USA 5600
Spain Tunisia Netherlands USA 5598
Brazil Australia Croatia USA 5597
England Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5597
England Ecuador Czechs USA 5597
Italy Paraguay Czechs USA 5595
Brazil Tunisia Portugal USA 5593
Spain Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5592
Spain Ecuador Czechs USA 5592
Germany Australia Netherlands USA 5588
France Tunisia Czechs USA 5588
Brazil Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5587
Brazil Tunisia Sweden USA 5587
France Australia Portugal USA 5587
Germany Paraguay Netherlands USA 5582
France Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5582
Brazil Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5581
France Paraguay Portugal USA 5581
France Australia Sweden USA 5581
Italy Tunisia Netherlands USA 5579
Argentina Tunisia Netherlands USA 5578
Brazil Australia Poland USA 5575
France Paraguay Sweden USA 5575
England Tunisia Czechs USA 5575
England Australia Portugal USA 5574
Italy Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5573
Italy Ecuador Czechs USA 5573
Argentina Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5572
Spain Tunisia Czechs USA 5570
Spain Australia Portugal USA 5569
England Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5569
England Paraguay Portugal USA 5568
England Australia Sweden USA 5568
Spain Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5564
Spain Paraguay Portugal USA 5563
Spain Australia Sweden USA 5563
England Paraguay Sweden USA 5562
Germany Ecuador Netherlands USA 5560
Germany Australia Czechs USA 5560
France Ecuador Portugal USA 5559
Brazil Ghana Netherlands USA 5558
Spain Paraguay Sweden USA 5557
Germany Paraguay Czechs USA 5554
France Ecuador Sweden USA 5553
Italy Tunisia Czechs USA 5551
Argentina Tunisia Czechs USA 5550
Italy Australia Portugal USA 5550
Argentina Australia Portugal USA 5549
Brazil Tunisia Croatia USA 5547
England Ecuador Portugal USA 5546
Brazil Togo Netherlands USA 5545
Italy Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5545
Argentina Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5544
Italy Paraguay Portugal USA 5544
Italy Australia Sweden USA 5544
Argentina Australia Sweden USA 5543
Brazil Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5541
Spain Ecuador Portugal USA 5541
France Australia Croatia USA 5541
England Ecuador Sweden USA 5540
Germany Tunisia Netherlands USA 5538
Italy Paraguay Sweden USA 5538
France Tunisia Portugal USA 5537
Spain Ecuador Sweden USA 5535
France Paraguay Croatia USA 5535
Germany Ivory Coast Netherlands USA 5532
Germany Ecuador Czechs USA 5532
France Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5531
France Tunisia Sweden USA 5531
Brazil Ghana Czechs USA 5530
England Australia Croatia USA 5528
Brazil Tunisia Poland USA 5525
France Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5525
Brazil Australia Serbia USA 5524
England Tunisia Portugal USA 5524
Spain Australia Croatia USA 5523
Italy Ecuador Portugal USA 5522
England Paraguay Croatia USA 5522
Brazil Ivory Coast Poland USA 5519
Spain Tunisia Portugal USA 5519
France Australia Poland USA 5519
England Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5518
England Tunisia Sweden USA 5518
Brazil Togo Czechs USA 5517
Spain Paraguay Croatia USA 5517
Italy Ecuador Sweden USA 5516
Spain Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5513
Spain Tunisia Sweden USA 5513
France Paraguay Poland USA 5513
France Ecuador Croatia USA 5513
England Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5512
Germany Tunisia Czechs USA 5510
Brazil Australia Switzerland USA 5510
Germany Australia Portugal USA 5509
Spain Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5507
Brazil Angola Netherlands USA 5506
England Australia Poland USA 5506
Germany Ivory Coast Czechs USA 5504
Italy Australia Croatia USA 5504
Germany Paraguay Portugal USA 5503
Germany Australia Sweden USA 5503
Argentina Australia Croatia USA 5503
Brazil Australia Ukraine USA 5502
France Ghana Netherlands USA 5502
Spain Australia Poland USA 5501
Italy Tunisia Portugal USA 5500
England Paraguay Poland USA 5500
England Ecuador Croatia USA 5500
Argentina Tunisia Portugal USA 5499
Italy Paraguay Croatia USA 5498
Germany Paraguay Sweden USA 5497
Spain Paraguay Poland USA 5495
Spain Ecuador Croatia USA 5495
Italy Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5494
Italy Tunisia Sweden USA 5494
Argentina Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5493
Argentina Tunisia Sweden USA 5493
France Tunisia Croatia USA 5491
France Ecuador Poland USA 5491
France Togo Netherlands USA 5489
England Ghana Netherlands USA 5489
Italy Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5488
Argentina Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5487
France Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5485
Spain Ghana Netherlands USA 5484
Italy Australia Poland USA 5482
Germany Ecuador Portugal USA 5481
Argentina Australia Poland USA 5481
Brazil Ghana Portugal USA 5479
Brazil Angola Czechs USA 5478
England Tunisia Croatia USA 5478
England Ecuador Poland USA 5478
Italy Paraguay Poland USA 5476
Italy Ecuador Croatia USA 5476
England Togo Netherlands USA 5476
Germany Ecuador Sweden USA 5475
Brazil Tunisia Serbia USA 5474
France Ghana Czechs USA 5474
Brazil Ghana Sweden USA 5473
Spain Tunisia Croatia USA 5473
Spain Ecuador Poland USA 5473
England Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5472
Spain Togo Netherlands USA 5471
France Tunisia Poland USA 5469
Brazil Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5468
France Australia Serbia USA 5468
Spain Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5467
Brazil Togo Portugal USA 5466
Italy Ghana Netherlands USA 5465
Argentina Ghana Netherlands USA 5464
Germany Australia Croatia USA 5463
France Ivory Coast Poland USA 5463
France Paraguay Serbia USA 5462
France Togo Czechs USA 5461
England Ghana Czechs USA 5461
Brazil Togo Sweden USA 5460
Brazil Tunisia Switzerland USA 5460
Germany Tunisia Portugal USA 5459
Germany Paraguay Croatia USA 5457
Spain Ghana Czechs USA 5456
England Tunisia Poland USA 5456
England Australia Serbia USA 5455
Brazil Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5454
Italy Tunisia Croatia USA 5454
Italy Ecuador Poland USA 5454
France Australia Switzerland USA 5454
Germany Ivory Coast Portugal USA 5453
Germany Tunisia Sweden USA 5453
Argentina Tunisia Croatia USA 5453
Brazil Tunisia Ukraine USA 5452
Italy Togo Netherlands USA 5452
Argentina Togo Netherlands USA 5451
Spain Tunisia Poland USA 5451
Spain Australia Serbia USA 5450
France Angola Netherlands USA 5450
England Ivory Coast Poland USA 5450
England Paraguay Serbia USA 5449
Italy Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5448
France Paraguay Switzerland USA 5448
England Togo Czechs USA 5448
Germany Ivory Coast Sweden USA 5447
Argentina Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5447
Brazil Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5446
France Australia Ukraine USA 5446
Spain Ivory Coast Poland USA 5445
Spain Paraguay Serbia USA 5444
Spain Togo Czechs USA 5443
Germany Australia Poland USA 5441
England Australia Switzerland USA 5441
France Paraguay Ukraine USA 5440
France Ecuador Serbia USA 5440
Italy Ghana Czechs USA 5437
England Angola Netherlands USA 5437
Argentina Ghana Czechs USA 5436
Spain Australia Switzerland USA 5436
Germany Paraguay Poland USA 5435
Germany Ecuador Croatia USA 5435
England Paraguay Switzerland USA 5435
Brazil Ghana Croatia USA 5433
England Australia Ukraine USA 5433
Italy Tunisia Poland USA 5432
Spain Angola Netherlands USA 5432

[Serie Zed]

Argentina Tunisia Poland USA 5431
Italy Australia Serbia USA 5431
Argentina Australia Serbia USA 5430
Spain Paraguay Switzerland USA 5430
Spain Australia Ukraine USA 5428
Brazil Angola Portugal USA 5427
England Paraguay Ukraine USA 5427
England Ecuador Serbia USA 5427
Italy Ivory Coast Poland USA 5426
France Ecuador Switzerland USA 5426
Argentina Ivory Coast Poland USA 5425
Italy Paraguay Serbia USA 5425
Germany Ghana Netherlands USA 5424
Italy Togo Czechs USA 5424
Argentina Togo Czechs USA 5423
France Ghana Portugal USA 5423
Spain Paraguay Ukraine USA 5422
Spain Ecuador Serbia USA 5422
France Angola Czechs USA 5422
Brazil Angola Sweden USA 5421
Brazil Togo Croatia USA 5420
France Tunisia Serbia USA 5418
France Ecuador Ukraine USA 5418
Italy Australia Switzerland USA 5417
France Ghana Sweden USA 5417
Argentina Australia Switzerland USA 5416
Germany Tunisia Croatia USA 5413
Germany Ecuador Poland USA 5413
Italy Angola Netherlands USA 5413
England Ecuador Switzerland USA 5413
Argentina Angola Netherlands USA 5412
France Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5412
Germany Togo Netherlands USA 5411
Brazil Ghana Poland USA 5411
Italy Paraguay Switzerland USA 5411
France Togo Portugal USA 5410
England Ghana Portugal USA 5410
Italy Australia Ukraine USA 5409
England Angola Czechs USA 5409
Argentina Australia Ukraine USA 5408
Spain Ecuador Switzerland USA 5408
Germany Ivory Coast Croatia USA 5407
Spain Ghana Portugal USA 5405
England Tunisia Serbia USA 5405
England Ecuador Ukraine USA 5405
Spain Angola Czechs USA 5404
France Togo Sweden USA 5404
France Tunisia Switzerland USA 5404
England Ghana Sweden USA 5404
Italy Paraguay Ukraine USA 5403
Italy Ecuador Serbia USA 5403
Spain Tunisia Serbia USA 5400
Spain Ecuador Ukraine USA 5400
Spain Ghana Sweden USA 5399
England Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5399
Brazil Togo Poland USA 5398
France Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5398
England Togo Portugal USA 5397
Germany Ghana Czechs USA 5396
France Tunisia Ukraine USA 5396
Spain Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5394
Spain Togo Portugal USA 5392
Germany Tunisia Poland USA 5391
England Togo Sweden USA 5391
England Tunisia Switzerland USA 5391
Germany Australia Serbia USA 5390
France Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5390
Italy Ecuador Switzerland USA 5389
Italy Ghana Portugal USA 5386
Spain Togo Sweden USA 5386
Spain Tunisia Switzerland USA 5386
Germany Ivory Coast Poland USA 5385
Argentina Ghana Portugal USA 5385
Italy Angola Czechs USA 5385
England Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5385
Germany Paraguay Serbia USA 5384
Argentina Angola Czechs USA 5384
Germany Togo Czechs USA 5383
England Tunisia Ukraine USA 5383
Brazil Angola Croatia USA 5381
Italy Tunisia Serbia USA 5381
Italy Ecuador Ukraine USA 5381
Argentina Tunisia Serbia USA 5380
Italy Ghana Sweden USA 5380
Spain Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5380
Argentina Ghana Sweden USA 5379
Spain Tunisia Ukraine USA 5378
France Ghana Croatia USA 5377
England Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5377
Germany Australia Switzerland USA 5376
Italy Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5375
Argentina Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5374
Italy Togo Portugal USA 5373
Germany Angola Netherlands USA 5372
Argentina Togo Portugal USA 5372
Spain Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5372
France Angola Portugal USA 5371
Germany Paraguay Switzerland USA 5370
Germany Australia Ukraine USA 5368
Italy Togo Sweden USA 5367
Italy Tunisia Switzerland USA 5367
Argentina Togo Sweden USA 5366
Argentina Tunisia Switzerland USA 5366
France Angola Sweden USA 5365
France Togo Croatia USA 5364
England Ghana Croatia USA 5364
Germany Paraguay Ukraine USA 5362
Germany Ecuador Serbia USA 5362
Italy Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5361
Brazil Ghana Serbia USA 5360
Argentina Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5360
Brazil Angola Poland USA 5359
Italy Tunisia Ukraine USA 5359
Spain Ghana Croatia USA 5359
Argentina Tunisia Ukraine USA 5358
England Angola Portugal USA 5358
France Ghana Poland USA 5355
Italy Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5353
Spain Angola Portugal USA 5353
Argentina Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5352
England Angola Sweden USA 5352
England Togo Croatia USA 5351
Germany Ecuador Switzerland USA 5348
Brazil Togo Serbia USA 5347
Spain Angola Sweden USA 5347
Brazil Ghana Switzerland USA 5346
Spain Togo Croatia USA 5346
Germany Ghana Portugal USA 5345
Germany Angola Czechs USA 5344
France Togo Poland USA 5342
England Ghana Poland USA 5342
Germany Tunisia Serbia USA 5340
Germany Ecuador Ukraine USA 5340
Italy Ghana Croatia USA 5340
Germany Ghana Sweden USA 5339
Argentina Ghana Croatia USA 5339
Brazil Ghana Ukraine USA 5338
Spain Ghana Poland USA 5337
Germany Ivory Coast Serbia USA 5334
Italy Angola Portugal USA 5334
Brazil Togo Switzerland USA 5333
Argentina Angola Portugal USA 5333
Germany Togo Portugal USA 5332
England Togo Poland USA 5329
Italy Angola Sweden USA 5328
Argentina Angola Sweden USA 5327
Italy Togo Croatia USA 5327
Germany Togo Sweden USA 5326
Germany Tunisia Switzerland USA 5326
Argentina Togo Croatia USA 5326
Brazil Togo Ukraine USA 5325
France Angola Croatia USA 5325
Spain Togo Poland USA 5324
Germany Ivory Coast Switzerland USA 5320
Germany Tunisia Ukraine USA 5318
Italy Ghana Poland USA 5318
Argentina Ghana Poland USA 5317
Germany Ivory Coast Ukraine USA 5312
England Angola Croatia USA 5312
Brazil Angola Serbia USA 5308
Spain Angola Croatia USA 5307
Italy Togo Poland USA 5305
Argentina Togo Poland USA 5304
France Ghana Serbia USA 5304
France Angola Poland USA 5303
Germany Ghana Croatia USA 5299
Brazil Angola Switzerland USA 5294
Germany Angola Portugal USA 5293
France Togo Serbia USA 5291
England Ghana Serbia USA 5291
France Ghana Switzerland USA 5290
England Angola Poland USA 5290
Italy Angola Croatia USA 5288
Germany Angola Sweden USA 5287
Argentina Angola Croatia USA 5287
Germany Togo Croatia USA 5286
Brazil Angola Ukraine USA 5286
Spain Ghana Serbia USA 5286
Spain Angola Poland USA 5285
France Ghana Ukraine USA 5282
England Togo Serbia USA 5278
Germany Ghana Poland USA 5277
France Togo Switzerland USA 5277
England Ghana Switzerland USA 5277
Spain Togo Serbia USA 5273
Spain Ghana Switzerland USA 5272
France Togo Ukraine USA 5269
England Ghana Ukraine USA 5269
Italy Ghana Serbia USA 5267
Argentina Ghana Serbia USA 5266
Italy Angola Poland USA 5266
Argentina Angola Poland USA 5265
Germany Togo Poland USA 5264
Spain Ghana Ukraine USA 5264
England Togo Switzerland USA 5264
Spain Togo Switzerland USA 5259
England Togo Ukraine USA 5256
Italy Togo Serbia USA 5254
Argentina Togo Serbia USA 5253
Italy Ghana Switzerland USA 5253
Argentina Ghana Switzerland USA 5252
France Angola Serbia USA 5252
Spain Togo Ukraine USA 5251
Germany Angola Croatia USA 5247
Italy Ghana Ukraine USA 5245
Argentina Ghana Ukraine USA 5244
Italy Togo Switzerland USA 5240
Argentina Togo Switzerland USA 5239
England Angola Serbia USA 5239
France Angola Switzerland USA 5238
Spain Angola Serbia USA 5234
Italy Togo Ukraine USA 5232
Argentina Togo Ukraine USA 5231
France Angola Ukraine USA 5230
Germany Ghana Serbia USA 5226
Germany Angola Poland USA 5225
England Angola Switzerland USA 5225
Spain Angola Switzerland USA 5220
England Angola Ukraine USA 5217
Italy Angola Serbia USA 5215
Argentina Angola Serbia USA 5214
Germany Togo Serbia USA 5213
Germany Ghana Switzerland USA 5212
Spain Angola Ukraine USA 5212
Germany Ghana Ukraine USA 5204
Italy Angola Switzerland USA 5201
Argentina Angola Switzerland USA 5200
Germany Togo Switzerland USA 5199
Italy Angola Ukraine USA 5193
Argentina Angola Ukraine USA 5192
Germany Togo Ukraine USA 5191
Germany Angola Serbia USA 5174
Germany Angola Switzerland USA 5160
Germany Angola Ukraine USA 5152

[Serie Zed]

All of which ignores the enormous HFA Germany has.

[ursula]

.... and then a crap team, maybe Togo?



I just want to digress and say that no doubt Senegal thought Togo was a crap team, just like Cameroon thought the IC was crap and Nigeria didn't worry about Angola either. Or in Korea I'm sure France thought Senegal was the least of their worries. The bottom line is that you can't write off any African team like you can, say, T&T. Well maybe Tunisia as they have a track record of not playing up at the WC. The four easiest group 2 teams are: Tunisia, Australia, and Ecuador with Angola being the fourth, though their defense will be tough.


Also I must spread some rep around Serie Zed...

[Serie Zed]

Summarizing:

Netherlands, Czechs, Australia = bad

Angola, Togo, Ukraine, Switzerland = good

[Serie Zed]

IIRC, I looked at about 400 results once and compared them with ELO ratings to get that a 200-point difference in ratings points was worth about a goal.

Which would mean that the difference between getting the hardest group (average rating of ~1900 for the 3 opponents) and getting the easiest (~1700 point average) would be roughly a full goal per game in terms of expected outcomes over many trials.

[Reccossu]

Cool, but I thought Tunisia had a higher ranking than Australia? Where are your ELO's from? I can use them in the Monte Carlo instead?

Ok found some on eloratings.net

[Serie Zed]

www.eloratings.com

Tunisia is also a team we probably don't want to see from Pot B

And, obviously, Brazil is a team we want to avoid too.

[dheck]

Summarizing:

Netherlands, Czechs, Australia = bad

Angola, Togo, Ukraine, Switzerland = good

Despite ratings, etc. I don't think it would be a bad thing at all for the US to draw Australia. They have a history of choking in WCQ and I wouldn't be surprised for them to so at the Finals. I also think we'd match up quite well with them.

It's clear that everyone wants to avoid the Dutch and Czechs. Sweden look tough to me and tend to play well at the WC, and I would prefer not to tempt fate with Portugal.