FIFA draw news

[Adam Zebrowski]

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/051202/1/5g1d.html

The 24 remaining teams will then be assigned to Pots 2, 3 and 4 in such a way as to achieve the best possible geographical distribution between the groups

well, it looks like the pots are geography based, NOT FIFA ranking based..

next tuesday, the 8 seeds are known, and once we know the 8, the next question is which confederations get grouped...

[Bob Morocco]

Suck it Kicker

[AGF Aarhus]

Tempted to fire off an email to Kicker, FoxSports and Bild to ask just what they were thinking.

[galperin]

Mexico is going to get a seed, and the US won't, and I'm gonna want to puke.

If they do the geography-based thing, the groups could come out pretty wacky. You could have a group with a 1 seed, plus 3 crappers, or you could get a group with a 1 seed, and 3 great other teams.

[bltleo]

Tempted to fire off an email to Kicker, FoxSports and Bild to ask just what they were thinking.


Maybe our Kaiser Beckenbauer know the groups:)

Next week will be exciting...I think we can make some speculations before the
official draw and tell our opinions here....maybe someone of us will say the same groups that will be annouced on december 09...

bltleo:)

[Adam Zebrowski]

my understanding of geography based means it's exactly LIKE the past processes....

the key is whether concacaf gets asia or africa...in the pot...

[Mr Martin]

If they do the geography-based thing, the groups could come out pretty wacky. You could have a group with a 1 seed, plus 3 crappers, or you could get a group with a 1 seed, and 3 great other teams.

Yes. Exactly why the term "Group of Death" has been used at most World Cups. Nothing new in that.

[galperin]

Yes. Exactly why the term "Group of Death" has been used at most World Cups. Nothing new in that.I guess I was thinking of an even worse "group of death" than previous WC's.

[Pablo Chicago]

I'm not holding my breath. Remember when all of the experts said an African nation was going to get seeded in '98? Well, it never happened.

The only safe prediction is that some nation is going to be left out in the cold, and I can hear the conspiracy theorists sharpening their pencils already. :cool:

[MLSNHTOWN]

my understanding of geography based means it's exactly LIKE the past processes....

the key is whether concacaf gets asia or africa...in the pot...

The key is whether Mexico gets a seed. If they do, there are only three remaining CONCACAF sides thus, we could get in the same pool as Africa or Asia (+ either the extra Euro side or the Aussies). If Mexico is not seeded, we will be in the same pot as Asia, since Africa has five teams.

[H]

Last time Concacaf got paired up with Africa. This would be the best outcome for us. I'd be more worried about avoiding drawing Ghana or Cote D'Ivoire than Japan or Korea.

[Adam Zebrowski]

I agree, mexico as seed or non-seed drives everything...

still, the big soccer board area where the detailed math analysis of who gets a seed basically says mexico is a lock NO matter what method is used...

usa gets a seed in some methods...

you take the last 3 world cup performances, the last 3 years fifa ranking, and come up with the 20-25 different combinations of arranging how seeds get selected, and it's basically...

france, netherlands, usa being the marginalized potential seeds....


I'd rather concacaf got grouped with africa, as I'd preferred my chances with getting asia/aussie/left over euro side...

if the left over euro side was what the usa got, then I think that means a 2nd euro from pot 2, plus either brazil or argentina would be what usa would get....

[Craig P]

still, the big soccer board area where the detailed math analysis of who gets a seed basically says mexico is a lock NO matter what method is used...Well, I think Sagy was able to come up with some formulas that would exclude Mexico, if you were going into the process with a particular outcome in mind. But certainly, those formulas would be open to serious questions about their validity.

[Mr Martin]

I guess I was thinking of an even worse "group of death" than previous WC's.

Conceivable, although it would be hard to draw a group more difficult than 2002's group of Argentina, England, Sweden, and Nigeria. That was about the toughest group of any recent World Cup.

A group with Brazil, or Argentina, or Mexico as the top seed could end up with a difficult draw, say 2 good Euro teams and the top team in either Asia or Africa, or maybe the US. That's what happened in the 2002 Group of Death. Let's say Mexico is seeded and draws the Czech Rep, Sweden, and South Korea. That looks like a real battle, but not as bad as the 2002 Group of Death. Swap Mexico with Brazil and it could match the 2002 Group.

The groups with a Euro seeded team will most likely draw a second Euro team and then two teams from either Asia, Africa, or CONCACAF, which figures to be much lower odds for a Group of Death.

[tab5g]

found it interesting that there was no mention that Brazil would be the F1 seed, as i think was mentioned earlier in a Fifa release.

perhaps that was just an accidental omission, or maybe fifa will not be going by that earlier suggested draw stipuation for 2006.

i thought the headline of the article, "All you need to know about the Final Draw", is amusing in that there may be more information available, but us as fans don't really have a need to know it at this point.

[Red Card]

Bruce's unlimited amount of good luck will prevail again.

[superdave]

Well, FIFA is going to be looking for an easy way to create a pot of 8 from 2 confederations. Doesn't that mean it's almost certain for one pot to be:

CONCACAF except Mexico, and Africa. That's 8 teams.

Then they'll randomly put 8 UEFA non #1s in a pot.

That'll leave the 3rd pot as Australia, Ecuador and Paraguay, the 4 Asian teams, and the last UEFA team.

Now, if you look at it, if you're a #1 seed, you want to avoid the USA, and hope you don't get the really strong UEFA sides, and that's about it.

Another, arguably fairer way to create a pot of 8 is Australia, the Asian teams, and the CONCACAF teams. 7 pretty weak teams and the US. That would almost be a de facto 4th seed, except for us.

Now that I think about it, that would definitely be the smartest way to do it. One pot as in the paragraph above, one of 8 UEFA teams, and one of the 5 African teams, Paraguay and Ecuador, and the leftover UEFA team. Which would serve as a de facto #3 seed.

That would DEFINITELY reduce the G.O.D. chances. The only possible G.O.D. would be the US *AND* the leftover UEFA team, with Argy or Brazil as the #1. And even then, to be a true G.O.D. the UEFA teams would both have to be pretty good, and remember, neither would be seeded.

Of course, once all the dust is settled, there'll be an obvious G.O.D. or two, as some unfancied team does well. Just like in '02, when it was over, it was obvious the toughest group was Brazil, Turkey, CR, and whoever, with our group probably being #2. But before the fact, everyone looked at the England-Nigeria (ha!)-Nordic team I can't remember-Argy group as the toughest.

IMO, the most interesting thing about this World Cup is the number of fresh faces from Africa. One of 'em will play well an make the knockout rounds if not the quarterfinals, but how can you predict beforehand who that will be?


If they do the geography-based thing, the groups could come out pretty wacky. You could have a group with a 1 seed, plus 3 crappers, or you could get a group with a 1 seed, and 3 great other teams.
Unlikely, IMO.

Almost every group will either have a non-UEFA #1 seed and 2 European teams, or a Euro #1 and another Euro. European teams are tough in Europe, and who is the worst Euro team this time, anyway? I think this time, UEFA qualifying did a better job than in '02 of actually getting the best teams there.

[superdave]

In researching my above post, I went to Soccernet, where Big Phil was whining about Portugal not getting a seed. Which made me laugh. Jesus, they have a less impressive record than *US*, by a mile. There literally have to be a dozen teams with a better claim on a seed than Portugal.

[scaryice]

It's going to be exactly the same thing. Not news.

[FirstStar]

Mexico is going to get a seed, and the US won't, and I'm gonna want to puke.

If they do the geography-based thing, the groups could come out pretty wacky. You could have a group with a 1 seed, plus 3 crappers (aka the Group of Life, or you could get a group with a 1 seed, and 3 great other teams (aka the Group of Death.

FYP. Welcome to the World Cup Finals.