2010 WCQ Oceania gets .5 bid???

[o_l_coach]

From ESPN Soccernet:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=350656&cc=5901

"(T)he winner taking on a fifth-placed side from either South America or Asia for a berth in the 2010 finals."

This HAS to be a prayer request from the OFC. I'm not sure how a .25 bid would work out, but that has to be the limit to lifeline that FIFA can offer with Oz going to Asia.

[Tamalak]

Oceania's bid will most likely be the same as in the past - 0.5 and play-off vs. 5th place CONMEBOL.

The only way a 0.25 would work is if you took 4 teams and played a round robin, or two, 2-legged knockout games to gain a berth.
Logistically, it would be tough to do a round robin on a home and home basis, a neutral site would work, but where? Ideally, instead of having an OFC vs. CONMEBOL 5th place and CONCACAF 4th vs. AFC 5th, you would combine all 4 teams (0.25) and have a "mini-league" and the top 2 qualify.

Australia joined AFC to get a direct spot in qualifying. They were tired of losing the playoff every time. Now, if they finish 1,2,3 or 4, they qualify automatically.

[Edgar]

From ESPN Soccernet:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=350656&cc=5901

"(T)he winner taking on a fifth-placed side from either South America or Asia for a berth in the 2010 finals."

This HAS to be a prayer request from the OFC. I'm not sure how a .25 bid would work out, but that has to be the limit to lifeline that FIFA can offer with Oz going to Asia.

It could work like in the 1994 WCQ

OFC winner - CONCACAF 3rd place. The winner will play against 4th CONMEBOL team for a place at the WC.

Australia - Canada 2 - 1; 1 - 2; Australia through on pk's
Australia - Argentina 1 - 1; 1 - 2; Argentina to USA'94

[MassachusettsRef]

It could work like in the 1994 WCQ

OFC winner - CONCACAF 3rd place. The winner will play against 4th CONMEBOL team for a place at the WC.

Australia - Canada 2 - 1; 1 - 2; Australia through on pk's
Australia - Argentina 1 - 1; 1 - 2; Argentina to USA'94I was just about to post this; exactly the same idea I had. Only minor quibble is that Canada was 2nd place (USA were hosts) in CONCACAF.

WCQ10 qualifying is a long way away, and anything can happen. But I'd guess that OFC will either be forced into a 3-way playoff like the one above, or a very difficult direct playoff (like against UEFA's best 2nd place team).

[midknight]

It could work like in the 1994 WCQ

OFC winner - CONCACAF 3rd place. The winner will play against 4th CONMEBOL team for a place at the WC.

Australia - Canada 2 - 1; 1 - 2; Australia through on pk's
Australia - Argentina 1 - 1; 1 - 2; Argentina to USA'94

I was just going to bring this up. Effectively, what Oceania had back then was a 1/3 spot). Strangely enough I never heard anyone clamouring about concacacf's 2 and a third spot. Most people,talking about the confederation in 98, just took it for granted that it went from 2 to 3 spots...and made the corresponding amount of noise...

[MassachusettsRef]

Remember, 1994 only involved 24 teams. In the analysis of world cup spot allocations, 1994 is ancient history; 1998 really begins the "modern" era.

1994 allocations:
Holders (West Germany)
Hosts (USA)
CONCACAF: 1.33
OFC: .33
CONMEBOL: 3.33
CAF: 3
AFC: 2
UEFA: 12

1998 allocations:
Holders (Brazil)
Hosts (France)
CONCACAF: 3
OFC: .5
CONMEBOL: 4
CAF: 5
AFC: 3.5
UEFA: 14

One thing to keep in mind for 2010 is that South Africa is already qualified. So will Africa get 5, 6, or 5.5 teams--a lot is riding on the performances of the currently qualified African teams in that regard. A lot depends on performances of teams like Trinidad & Tobago, Costa Rica, Angola, Togo, Saudi Arabia and Iran, but you could see something like this for 2010:

Hosts (South Africa)
CONCACAF: 3.5
CONMEBOL 4.33
CAF: 5.5
OFC: .33
AFC: 4.33
UEFA: 13

In a system like that, CONCACAF's 4th place team will playoff with the 6th place team from Africa. And OFC's winner would face Asia's 5th place team, with the winner to face CONMEBOL's 5th place team. Of course, that would require a complete overhaul of Africa's qualifying system (which might be necessary no matter what, which is unfortunate, since it's the most straightforward other than South America's).

[California Jack]

Remember, 1994 only involved 24 teams. In the analysis of world cup spot allocations, 1994 is ancient history; 1998 really begins the "modern" era.

1994 allocations:
Holders (West Germany)
Hosts (USA)
CONCACAF: 1.33
OFC: .33
CONMEBOL: 3.33
CAF: 3
AFC: 2
UEFA: 12

1998 allocations:
Holders (Brazil)
Hosts (France)
CONCACAF: 3
OFC: .5
CONMEBOL: 4
CAF: 5
AFC: 3.5
UEFA: 14

One thing to keep in mind for 2010 is that South Africa is already qualified. So will Africa get 5, 6, or 5.5 teams--a lot is riding on the performances of the currently qualified African teams in that regard. A lot depends on performances of teams like Trinidad & Tobago, Costa Rica, Angola, Togo, Saudi Arabia and Iran, but you could see something like this for 2010:

Hosts (South Africa)
CONCACAF: 3.5
CONMEBOL 4.33
CAF: 5.5
OFC: .33
AFC: 4.33
UEFA: 13

In a system like that, CONCACAF's 4th place team will playoff with the 6th place team from Africa. And OFC's winner would face Asia's 5th place team, with the winner to face CONMEBOL's 5th place team. Of course, that would require a complete overhaul of Africa's qualifying system (which might be necessary no matter what, which is unfortunate, since it's the most straightforward other than South America's).


We'll see what happens in Germany, but if the African sides do not do well, I do not see creating a system where they can INCREASE their representation in 2010. Hosting it (and having a seed) is enough.

Completely separately, rather than see the one credible side leave OFC, I would have liked to see Southeast Asian sides join that confed., and some of the former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which don't do very well in UEFA qualifying "move to" Asia. Now, we've got an even weaker OFC confed, the rationale for the continued existence of which is somewhat questionable.

[MassachusettsRef]

We'll see what happens in Germany, but if the African sides do not do well, I do not see creating a system where they can INCREASE their representation in 2010. Hosting it (and having a seed) is enough.You're right, I didn't think my math through. I meant to propose a system whereby Africa got 4.5 spots and had the CHANCE at getting an extra spot (when you include South Africa). I mistakenly put forth a system where Africa could theoretically get 7 spots, which I don't believe anyone think is possible. My original proposal should be edited to have CAF at 4.5 and UEFA at 14.

Who the holders are will certainly matter, too.

[DMullin]

Ideally, instead of having an OFC vs. CONMEBOL 5th place and CONCACAF 4th vs. AFC 5th, you would combine all 4 teams (0.25) and have a "mini-league" and the top 2 qualify.

I really like this idea. I enjoyed the 2005 intercontinental playoffs. This would make for a very interesting "mini-league" with teams who rarely qualify for the finals. The stakes would be high.

[shinzui]

A lot of the allocation process will be determined by CONMEBOL too. The professional clubs in Europe have long wanted a different qualifying process in CONMEBOL so that they don't risk their players to injury as often. CONMEBOL will probably make a big push for 5 permanent spots if they are forced to go to a 2 group format. Even with the addition of Australia AFC is hardly worthy of 4.5 spots. AFC has a lot riding on performance in this WC, because there is little reason not to knock them back to 4 spots, or 3.5 with a gaurantee of a qualifier against Oceania.

[SetPeace]

From ESPN Soccernet:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=350656&cc=5901

"(T)he winner taking on a fifth-placed side from either South America or Asia for a berth in the 2010 finals."

This HAS to be a prayer request from the OFC. I'm not sure how a .25 bid would work out, but that has to be the limit to lifeline that FIFA can offer with Oz going to Asia.


It's not a .25 bid for the OFC, it's the same .5 slot they've been allotted for a few years. The only difference is that they will have their final round set up as a hex, ala-CONCACAF. With 11 teams in the OFC, the five strongest teams will make it to the final round. The other six will play-off to determine a winner to go to the final hexagonal with those top 5 teams. The final 6 will play home and away matches to determine the OFC champion who will then meet a team from another confederation for a spot in the 2010 World Cup. For World Cup 2006, the OFC had Australia and New Zealand automatically go to the final group of 6 teams. The other ten teams were split into two groups of five. The top two teams from each group qualified for the OFC finals in Adelaide (Fiji, Tahiti, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands made it to South Australia). After the round robin, which was played over the span of two weeks--as opposed to 18 months proposed for the 2010 qualifying cycle, the top two teams left played for the overall OFC title (Australia beat Solomon Islands in the two-legged play-offs), and the right to face the 5th place team from CONMEBOL.

[o_l_coach]

It's not a .25 bid for the OFC, it's the same .5 slot they've been allotted for a few years.

I know that. I just don't belive that they deserve even that, especially with Australia joining Asia. I doubt that whoever would win from Oceania would ever beat the 5th place SA team, or the 4th place Concacaf, or the 15th or whatever UEFA team.

I don't think they even merit being that close. I remembered that they had a .25 bid previously and think they should get that at best.

[o_l_coach]

I was just going to bring this up. Effectively, what Oceania had back then was a 1/3 spot). Strangely enough I never heard anyone clamouring about concacacf's 2 and a third spot. Most people,talking about the confederation in 98, just took it for granted that it went from 2 to 3 spots...and made the corresponding amount of noise...

Oceania & Concacaf had 1/4 of a spot.
The winner became the holder of 1/2 a spot against the Comnebol holder of a 1/2 spot.

Having a 1/3 spot would require a 3 way round robin.

[SetPeace]

I know that. I just don't belive that they deserve even that, especially with Australia joining Asia. I doubt that whoever would win from Oceania would ever beat the 5th place SA team, or the 4th place Concacaf, or the 15th or whatever UEFA team.

I don't think they even merit being that close. I remembered that they had a .25 bid previously and think they should get that at best.


OK, I understand what you're saying. On the other hand, if the OFC winner were to make it to the World Cup by beating another play-off team from another confederation, I think the spot would be deserved. A half spot for OFC is OK with me. A full spot is not deserved, but a .25 or a .33 slot is not really fair either.

[Power_of_foot]

You might be correct. Berths problems will better be decided after 2006 Germany.
I am sure Asia will get 5-6 berths along with South America and Africa.
I have a feeling that Oceania deserve 1 berth too.



We'll see what happens in Germany, but if the African sides do not do well, I do not see creating a system where they can INCREASE their representation in 2010. Hosting it (and having a seed) is enough.

Completely separately, rather than see the one credible side leave OFC, I would have liked to see Southeast Asian sides join that confed., and some of the former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which don't do very well in UEFA qualifying "move to" Asia. Now, we've got an even weaker OFC confed, the rationale for the continued existence of which is somewhat questionable.

[balla]

Uruguay 10 New Zealand (or maybe even Fiji this time) 0

[midknight]

Oceania & Concacaf had 1/4 of a spot.
The winner became the holder of 1/2 a spot against the Comnebol holder of a 1/2 spot.

Having a 1/3 spot would require a 3 way round robin.

Well if we want to get technical...

what's half of 1/4+ + 1/2? Half of 3/4 = 1.5/4 :D

[leonidas]

Uruguay 10 New Zealand (or maybe even Fiji this time) 0

Haha. Probably more. Australia did play Solomon Islands to win the Oceania qualifying. Imagine them playing against Uruguay or another South American team...

[Sagy]

I am sure Asia will get 5-6 berths ...
I have a feeling that Oceania deserve 1 berth too. :eek:

So you are saying that Bahrain/Uzbekistan (AFC @ 6) and New Zealand/Salomon Islands (OFC @ 1) are type of teams we can expect to see in the next WC.

Unless teams from these confederations do very well in Germany, I think that AFC+OFC has not earned more than 4 slots combined (and I'm probobly giving them too much credit for past performance).

[usasoccerhooligan]

oh wow, i just realized all of the downfalls in soccer now that Australia will be in Asia. just think, teams like New Zealand or Solomon Islands in the Confed. Cup. or even worse, one of their club teams in the CWC. oh, this is horrible.