Champions League - Standings / Possibilities / Analysis [R]

[kevbrunton]

OK - after today's matches, several more spots are becoming clear.


Group A
Bayern Munich - 12 pts, +6 gd
Juventus - 12 pts, +5 gd
Club Brugge - 6 pts
Rapid Vienna - 0 pts

Bayern moved back on top of Juventus today based upon the goal difference. They swap opponents in the final match and it will come down to who can win biggest for the coveted top spot.

Club Brugge has the UEFA Cup spot.

Group B
Arsenal - 15 pts
Ajax - 10 pts
FC Thun - 3 pts
Sparta - 1 pt

Arsenal has top spot locked for advancing. Ajax has 2nd spot locked for advancing.

Thun has to travel to Sparta for the final match where the winner would advance to the UEFA Cup. A draw would see Thun going to the UEFA Cup.

Group C
Barcelona - 13 pts
Udinese - 7 pts, 0 gd
Werder Bremen - 4 pts, -4 gd
Panathinaikos - 4 pts, -8 gd

Barcelona has the top spot locked for advancing.

The final matches see Udinese host Barcelona and Werder Bremen host Panathinaikos.

Udinese Win or Draw sees them take the 2nd spot and advance. In that case, the Werder Bremen v. Panathinaikos winner would go to the UEFA Cup. In the case of a draw in that game, Werder Bremen advances on head to head results.

In the event of a Udineses loss and a Panathinaikos win, then Udinese takes 2nd on head to head and advances, Panathinaikos goes to UEFA Cup. With a Udineses loss and a Werder Bremen win, Werder Bremen takes 2nd on head to head and advances, Udinese goes to UEFA Cup.

Group D
Villareal - 7 pts, +1 gd
Lille - 6 pts, 0 gd
Man United - 6 pts, 0 gd
Benfica - 5 pts, -1 gd

Benfica v. Man United and Villareal v. Lille in the final match.

The simple result is that 2 wins, sees the winners advance in the CL. The other simple result is that 2 draws sees the standings stay the way they are with Villareal & Lille advancing in CL and Man United playing in the UEFA Cup. Beyond that, here's the possibilities...

Benfica wins, Villareal wins - Villareal takes top spot, Benfica takes 2nd, Lille takes 3rd, Man United goes home.

Benfica wins, Lille wins - Lille takes top spot, Benfica takes 2nd, Villareal takes 3rd, Man United goes home.

Benfica wins, Villareal/Lille game draws - Benfica takes top spot, Villareal takes 2nd, Lille takes 3rd, Man United goes home.

Man United wins, Villareal wins - Villareal takes top spot, Man United takes 2nd, Lille takes 3rd, Benfica goes home.

Man United wins, Lille wins - Lille takes top spot, Man United takes 2nd, Villareal takes 3rd, Benfica goes home.

Man United wins, Villareal/Lille game draws - Man United takes top spot, Villareal takes 2nd, Lille takes 3rd, Benfica goes home.

Benfica/Man United game draws, Villareal wins - Villareal takes top spot, Man United takes 2nd, Benfica takes 3rd on head to head with Lille, Lille goes home.

Benfica/Man United game draws, Lille wins - Lille takes top spot, Benfica goes home. If Villareal loses by more than 1 goal, Man United takes 2nd (on overall group goal differential), Villareal takes 3rd. If Villareal loses by 1 goal, 2-1 or higher, Villareal takes 2nd (on overall group goals scored), Man United takes 3rd. If Villareal loses 1-0, then all tie breakers are even and Man United would advance based upon their higher coefficient and Villareal would go to the UEFA Cup.


We'll add in the other groups tomorrow after those games.

[Forza AZ]

In that case, the Werder Bremen v. Panathinaikos winner would go to the UEFA Cup. In the case of a draw in that game, Werder Bremen advances on head to head results.
Not true, in case of a draw Panathinaikos is 3rd. They won the home match versus Werder with 2-1, so when they draw in Bremen, Panathinaikos has the better head-to-head.

[Forza AZ]

Benfica/Man United game draws, Lille wins - Lille takes top spot, Benfica goes home. If Villareal loses by more than 1 goal, Man United takes 2nd (on overall group goal differential), Villareal takes 3rd. If Villareal loses by 1 goal, 2-1 or higher, Villareal takes 2nd (on overall group goals scored), Man United takes 3rd. If Villareal loses 1-0, then all tie breakers are even and Man United would advance based upon their higher coefficient and Villareal would go to the UEFA Cup.
Also not completely true. You say that when Villarreal loses with 1-2 they will be 2nd, but when for instance Manchester draw 2-2, Manchester will be 2nd on goal scored.

This is how it exactly is when Lille wins and Benfica draw Manchester United:

Lille takes top spot and Benfica goes home.
And concerning Villarreal and Manchester United:
-When Villarreal loses with 2 or more goals: Manchester is 2nd and Villarreal goes to UEFA-cup.
-When Villarreal loses with one goal: The team that scores the most goals in the last matchday will be 2nd and the other one will go to the UEFA-cup. When both teams score the same number of goals, Manchester United will be 2nd because of their higher UEFA-coefficient and Villarreal will go to the UEFA-cup.

[kevbrunton]

Not true, in case of a draw Panathinaikos is 3rd. They won the home match versus Werder with 2-1, so when they draw in Bremen, Panathinaikos has the better head-to-head.
You're correct - I had it written down correctly on my scatch paper, but must have misread it when I was typing this up.

Also not completely true. You say that when Villarreal loses with 1-2 they will be 2nd, but when for instance Manchester draw 2-2, Manchester will be 2nd on goal scored.

This is how it exactly is when Lille wins and Benfica draw Manchester United:

Lille takes top spot and Benfica goes home.
And concerning Villarreal and Manchester United:
-When Villarreal loses with 2 or more goals: Manchester is 2nd and Villarreal goes to UEFA-cup.
-When Villarreal loses with one goal: The team that scores the most goals in the last matchday will be 2nd and the other one will go to the UEFA-cup. When both teams score the same number of goals, Manchester United will be 2nd because of their higher UEFA-coefficient and Villarreal will go to the UEFA-cup.
You're right on these too - I didn't go far enough with the group goals scored. It was late in the day and I had decided to whip this out before heading home and by the time I got down to these permutations, I was getting tired and ready to go. I wound up rushing through it.

Thanks for catching these.

Also, it turns out I won't have time this afternoon after the games are know to post this analysis. I have band practice this evening early, so will have to be leaving the office before the games are over. Then there is a Thanksgiving Eve party tonight - so I won't be able to update any of this CL stuff until tomorrow. If you get time, go ahead and post the situation with the other 4 groups. If not, I'll do them tomorrow.

[Forza AZ]

Group E

Last matchday: Milan-Schalke and PSV-Fenerbahce

-Milan will qualify when they win or draw 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2. Also with a higher draw if PSV doesn't win and even with a loss when PSV loses. In all other cases they will go to the UEFA-cup.
-Schalke will qualify with a win or a 3-3 or higher draw. Also with a lower draw when PSV doesn't win and even with a loss when PSV doesn't win. In all other cases they will go to the UEFA-cup.
-PSV will qualify with a win. When they draw they also qualify when Schalke wins, or else they go to UEFA-cup. When they lose they are out completely.
-Fenerbahce goed to the UEFA-cup when they win. In all other cases they are out.

Group F

Lyon and Real Madrid are qualified, Rosenborg goes to UEFA-cup.

Group G

Liverpool and Chelsea are qualified, Betis goes to UEFA-cup.

Group H

Last matchday: Rangers-Internazionale and Artmedia-Porto

-Internazionale is qualified.
-Rangers qualifies when they win. Also when they draw and Artmedia doesn't win. And even when they lose and Artmedia-Porto is a draw. In all other cases they go to the UEFA-cup.
-Artmedia qualifies when they win and Rangers doesn't win, else thet go to the UEFA-cup. Also when Artmedia draws they go to UEFA-cup. If they lose they are out.
-Porto qualifies when they win and when Rangers loses. Else they go to UEFA-cup. When they don't win they are out.