2010 Seeds, a Look Ahead

[numerista]

http://www.fifa.com/wc/2002/draw/BusanDraw_All-1.pdf

Looking at FIFA's seeding process (which could always change), it appears that a fair amount of the information for figuring out 2010 seeds is already known. The formula is:

WCpts06 + WCpts02 +WCpts98 + FIFArank09 + FIFArank08 + FIFArank07

The points awarded for WC98 and WC02 are already decided, as are 48% of the points for WC06. In addition, FIFA rankings are unlikely to fluctuate too wildly from where they are now. They use 8 years of games (in weighted form), so a fair amount of the revelant games have already been played.

Below is a rundown on where things stand. The number in parentheses is the current FIFA ranking, which I've used in place of the FIFA ranks in the formula above.

1. Brazil (1) 55.7 points
2. France (5) 44.0
3T. England (9) 43.7
3T. Mexico (6) 43.7
3T. Argentina (4) 43.7
6. Holland (2) 43.3
7. Spain (8) 40.0
---------------- cutoff, because SAfrica will be seeded
8T. Germany (15) 39.7
8T. USA (7) 39.7
10. Italy (12) 39.0
11. Denmark (14) 35.0 (failed to reach WC06)
12. Czech (3) 32.7
13. Turkey (11) 32 (failed to reach WC06)
14. Japan (16) 30.3
15. Croatia (19) 29.7
16. Sweden (13) 29.3
17. Portugal (10) 28.7
18. S.Korea (29) 19

This is how different events would affect things...
+8 points for winning WC06
+5.7 to 7.7 points for losing between quarterfinals and final of WC06
+3 to 5.3 points for losing in 2nd round of WC06
+0.3 points for finishing 3rd in WC06 group

+1 point for every position (above #33) advanced in average FIFA rank
-1 point for every position (above #33) dropped in average FIFA rank

The teams ranked below #10 Italy are longshots to move into a seeded position. #11 Denmark won't be in Germany, and even as champions, the #12 Czech Republic would only gain 8 points, while most of the teams ahead of it would gain at least 3. Perhaps if Croatia wins the title, it will move up enough in the FIFA rankings to push into contention ... but that's still a bit of a longshot.

On balance, there seem to be 10 contenders for the 7 seeds. If one or two of them fail to qualify for 2010, a second-round appearance in Germany could easily be enough to earn the US a #1 seed.

[Sagy]

http://www.fifa.com/wc/2002/draw/BusanDraw_All-1.pdf

Looking at FIFA's seeding process (which could always change), it appears that a fair amount of the information for figuring out 2010 seeds is already known. The formula is:

WCpts06 + WCpts02 +WCpts98 + FIFArank09 + FIFArank08 + FIFArank07
The 2002 formula was:
(WC90 + 2*WC94 + 3*WC98)/6 + (Rank99+Rank00+Rank01)/3
If the same is used for 2010 the formula will be:
[/i](WC98 + 2*WC02 + 3*WC06)/6 + (Rank07+Rank08+Rank09)/3[/i]
As you can see only 1/4 of the total points have been determined so far (for teams that didn't qualify 1/2 has been determined already).
If we give 8 points for WC06 for all the teams that Qualified (the worst they can do) which is 4 points in the final score the top 16 are:

19.83 Brazil
18.67 Germany
17.00 England
15.00 Korea Republic
14.83 Spain
14.67 Italy
14.67 Mexico
---------------------
13.67 USA
13.33 Japan
12.00 Croatia
12.00 France
11.83 Denmark*
11.50 Argentina
10.67 Sweden
10.00 Turkey*
8.83 Netherlands

* - Can not improve.
This is how different events would affect things...
+8 points for winning WC06
+5.7 to 7.7 points for losing between quarterfinals and final of WC06
+3 to 5.3 points for losing in 2nd round of WC06
+0.3 points for finishing 3rd in WC06 group
Because of the weighting the impact of WC06 is bigger:
+12 for winning
+8.5 to +11.5 for losing between quarterfinals and final of WC06
+4.5 to +8.0 for losing in 2nd round of WC06
+0.5 for finishing 3rd in WC06 group

This means that reaching the Quarter Finals could move the Netherlands from 16th to 4th, or that a 3rd place finish (worth 15 in the formula) could move anyone all the way to 4th.

+1 point for every position (above #33) advanced in average FIFA rank
-1 point for every position (above #33) dropped in average FIFA rank
Some corrections:
- the ranking portion is based on the 32 teams that made the WC not the top 32 in the FIFA ranking.
- each ranking/year is worth 1/3 of a point in the final result, gaining/losing a spot for all three years is worth a point.

If we use Oct05 ranking as a projection (not very reliable) of the ranking in Dec07, Dec08 and Nov09 (using the top 32 teams in the FIFA ranking) we get:
51.83 Brazil
41.67 Mexico
40.50 Argentina
40.50 England
40.00 France
39.83 Netherlands
39.83 Spain
---------------------
39.67 USA
36.67 Germany
35.67 Italy
34.00 Czech Republic
32.00 Turkey*
30.83 Denmark*
30.67 Sweden
30.50 Portugal
30.33 Japan
26.00 Croatia
20.00 Costa Rica
19.00 Korea Republic
18.67 Uruguay*

* - not in WC06

The top 11 are clearly in the chase (6 points can be made up in no time). Sweden, Portugal and Japan need to gain points in the WC in order to have a realistic chance.
Croatia and below, even reaching the Semi-Finals next years might not be enough.

Once the WC is over we will probably be down 10 teams or so going after the 7 spots (assuming the formula stays the same).

[numerista]

The 2002 formula was:
(WC90 + 2*WC94 + 3*WC98)/6 + (Rank99+Rank00+Rank01)/3


Thanks for the correction ... not sure how I skipped over that.


Croatia and below, even reaching the Semi-Finals next years might not be enough.

In the FIFA World Ranking last cycle, the semifinalists Turkey and S. Korea gained, respectively, 53 and 61 rating points. If you bump Croatia by 53 points and hold everyone else equal, they advance ten places in the rankings. Because the Croats are currently 19th, they have an upside that the Czech Republic (3rd) does not.

[Sagy]

Because the Croats are currently 19th, they have an upside that the Czech Republic (3rd) does not.Excellent point! Rep on the way :)

I added some more scenarios, the columns are:

Oct05: Number of point if the team keep their Oct05 ranking for the three years in question. Teams that are in the WC get credit for a 4th place group finish (the worst they can do).
WC Win: number of points if the team wins the WC and ranking stays the same as Oct05 during the three years in question.
#1*3: Number of points if the team finishes 4th in the group (for those in the WC) and ends up #1 in the FIFA ranking for the three years in question.
Max: Number of points if the team wins the WC and is #1 in the FIFA ranking for the 3 years in question. This is the maximum number of points a team can have.
Diff: Max - WC win. This is the upside a team in the FIFA ranking (= current ranking - 1)

Team Oct05 WC Win #1*3 Max Diff
1 Brazil 51.83 63.83 51.83 63.83 0.00
2 Mexico 41.67 53.67 46.67 58.67 5.00
3 Argentina 40.50 52.50 43.50 55.50 3.00
4 England 40.50 52.50 49.00 61.00 8.50
5 France 40.00 52.00 44.00 56.00 4.00
6 Netherlands 39.83 51.83 40.83 52.83 1.00
7 Spain 39.83 51.83 46.83 58.83 6.00
--------------------------------------------------
8 USA 39.67 51.67 45.67 57.67 6.00
9 Germany 36.67 48.67 50.67 62.67 14.00
10 Italy 35.67 47.67 46.67 58.67 11.00
11 Czech Rep 34.00 46.00 36.00 48.00 2.00
12 Turkey* 32.00 32.00 42.00 42.00 10.00
13 Denmark* 30.83 30.83 43.83 43.83 13.00
14 Sweden 30.67 42.67 42.67 54.67 12.00
15 Portugal 30.50 42.50 39.00 51.00 8.50
16 Japan 30.33 42.33 45.33 57.33 15.00
17 Croatia 26.00 38.00 44.00 56.00 18.00
18 Costa Rica 20.00 32.00 39.00 51.00 19.00
19 Korea Rep 19.00 31.00 47.00 59.00 28.00* - Not in WC06
Teams not listed, that are in the WC can get to at least 48 points by winning the WC and being #1 for the three years in question.

Based on the 2002 & 2006, a team will need to be in the low to mid 40s in order to be in the top 7. This means that teams not in the WC (e.g. Turkey, Denmark) have little to no chance of being seeded in WC10.

[jkdd77]

Aren't the holders automatically seeded, if they qualify?

[Sagy]

Aren't the holders automatically seeded, if they qualify?My guess would be yes, I don't think that we ever had a case in which the holder wasn't in the top 5.

[ZeekLTK]

#1*3: Number of points if the team finishes 4th in the group (for those in the WC) and ends up #1 in the FIFA ranking for the three years in question.

I don't understand this one. If a team finished 4th in their group, there is no chance they are going to be ranked #1 in the FIFA rankings... so what is the point of it?

Unless maybe I misunderstood what this colum is for... please explain! Thanks.

[EvanJ]

I don't understand this one. If a team finished 4th in their group, there is no chance they are going to be ranked #1 in the FIFA rankings... so what is the point of it?

Brazil has a big lead in the FIFA rankings. Is it big enough so that if they somehow finished last in their World Cup 2006 group they could still be ranked first or fall out of first but be ranked first again at some point during the WCQs for 2010? I agree that it's very unlikely or impossible.

[Sagy]

I don't understand this one. If a team finished 4th in their group, there is no chance they are going to be ranked #1 in the FIFA rankings... so what is the point of it?

Unless maybe I misunderstood what this colum is for... please explain! Thanks.I think that Evan is right in his post. The main reason I added the "#1 *3" column is to support numerista statement that "Because the Croats are currently 19th, they have an upside that the Czech Republic (3rd) does not".

[Auxodium]

lol this is amusing because it is so far ahead....things could change in the other continential championships.


great stats though :)

[scaryice]

Anyone got numbers using the new formula?

[Sagy]

Anyone got numbers using the new formula?
Team Nov05 Cur Rank
1 Brazil 48.00 1
2 Spain 41.67 6
3 Mexico 38.67 7
4 USA 38.67 8
5 England 38.33 9
6 Argentina 37.33 4
7 Turkey* 37.33 11
--------------------------
8 Czech Rep 36.33 2
9 France 36.00 5
10 Netherlands 35.33 3
11 Germany 32.67 16
12 Italy 32.33 12
13 Japan 31.33 15
14 Portugal 31.33 10
15 Sweden 31.00 14
16 Denmark* 27.67 13
17 Croatia 21.33 20
18 Costa Rica 20.33 21
19 Iran 19.33 19
20 Korea Rep 19.00 29* - Not in WC06

Winning the WC gets you 16 points.
Rank movement is worth a point for each position change over the three years.

[scaryice]

No, I meant the new method based on how FIFA tweaked it this time, using only the past two World Cups. So if they keep it, that means that 1998 won't be used next time.

[Sagy]

No, I meant the new method based on how FIFA tweaked it this time, using only the past two World Cups. So if they keep it, that means that 1998 won't be used next time.
That's what I tried to do, but I had an error with Turkey :(.

It should be:
Team Nov05 Cur Rank
1 Brazil 48.00 1
2 Spain 41.67 6
3 Mexico 38.67 7
4 USA 38.67 8
5 England 38.33 9
6 Argentina 37.33 4
7 Czech Rep 36.33 2
----------------------------
8 France 36.00 5
9 Netherlands 35.33 3
10 Germany 32.67 16
11 Italy 32.33 12
12 Turkey* 32.00 11
13 Japan 31.33 15
14 Portugal 31.33 10
15 Sweden 31.00 14
16 Denmark* 27.67 13
17 Croatia 21.33 20
18 Costa Rica 20.33 21
19 Iran 19.33 19
20 Korea Rep 19.00 29* - Not in WC06

Examples:
Brazil:
Ranking: 32 = (32+32+32)/3 (using Nov05 ranking for Dec 07, Dec 08, Nov 09)
WC standing: 16 = (32*1+8*2)/3 (they get 8 points for 06 WC since they qualified)
Total:48

USA:
Ranking: 25
WC standing: 13.67 = (25*1+8*2)/3
Total: 38.67

Turkey:
Ranking: 22
WC standing: 10 = (30*1+0*2)/3 (no points for 06 WC)
Total: 32

I think that this is what you asked for.

[Edgar]

Using the December FIFA Rankings

Country - Rank - Performance - Total - Current Rank


1 Brazil 32 16.00 48.00 1
2 Spain 27 14.67 41.67 5.1
3 Mexico 28 12.67 40.67 5
4 USA 25 13.67 38.67 8
5 England 24 14.33 38.33 9
6 Argentina 29 8.33 37.33 4
7 Czech Republic 31 5.33 36.33 2
------------------------------------
8 Netherlands 30 5.33 35.33 3
9 France 26 8.00 34.00 5.2
10 Germany 17 15.67 32.67 16
11 Italy 21 11.33 32.33 12
12 Turkey 22 10.00 32.00 11
13 Japan 18 13.33 31.33 15
14 Portugal 23 8.33 31.33 10
15 Sweden 19 12.00 31.00 14
16 Denmark 20 7.67 27.67 13
17 Croatia 13 8.33 21.33 20
18 Korea Republic 6 15.00 21.00 29
19 Costa Rica 12 8.33 20.33 21
20 Iran 14 5.33 19.33 19

* Mexico, Spain and France are all in the 5th place, but Mexico is first so it gets 28 points, Spain 2nd - 27, France 3rd - 26.

[Edgar]

January update


1 Brazil 32 16.00 48.00 1
2 Spain 28 14.67 42.67 5
3 Mexico 26 12.67 38.67 7
4 USA 25 13.67 38.67 7.1
5 England 24 14.33 38.33 9
6 Argentina 29 8.33 37.33 4
7 Czech Republic 31 5.33 36.33 2
-----------------------------------
8 Netherlands 30 5.33 35.33 3
9 France 27 8.00 35.00 5.1
10 Italy 21 11.33 32.33 12
11 Turkey 22 10.00 32.00 11
12 Germany 16 15.67 31.67 17
13 Japan 18 13.33 31.33 15
14 Portugal 23 8.33 31.33 10
15 Sweden 19 12.00 31.00 14
16 Denmark 20 7.67 27.67 13
17 Croatia 13 8.33 21.33 20
18 Korea Republic 6 15.00 21.00 29
19 Costa Rica 12 8.33 20.33 21
20 Iran 14 5.33 19.33 19

[Soccernethost]

Am I right that if the US were to make the Q-finals in Germany (not likely, but humor me), that only four teams could score significantly more points than us and we'd be an almost certain seed for 2010?

[Edgar]

Basically, yes.

[Edgar]

February update:


1 Brazil 32 16.00 48.00 1
2 Spain 27 14.67 41.67 6
3 Mexico 26 12.67 38.67 6.1
4 USA 25 13.67 38.67 6.2
5 England 24 14.33 38.33 9
6 Argentina 29 8.33 37.33 4
7 Czech Republic 31 5.33 36.33 2
------------------------------------
8 France 28 8.00 36.00 5
9 Netherlands 30 5.33 35.33 3
10 Turkey 22 10.00 32.00 11
11 Italy 20 11.33 31.33 12.1
12 Portugal 23 8.33 31.33 10
13 Sweden 18 12.00 30.00 15
14 Germany 13 15.67 28.67 19.1
15 Japan 15 13.33 28.33 18
16 Denmark 19 7.67 26.67 14
17 Nigeria 21 2.67 23.67 12
18 Cameroon 17 3.00 20.00 16
19 Korea Republic 5 15.00 20.00 31
20 Tunisia 10 8.00 18.00 23

[Edgar]

March update:


1 Brazil 32 16.00 48.00 1
2 USA 28 13.67 41.67 5
3 Spain 27 14.67 41.67 6
4 Mexico 26 12.67 38.67 7
5 England 24 14.33 38.33 9
6 Argentina 29 8.33 37.33 4
7 Czech Republic 31 5.33 36.33 2
--------------------------------------
8 Netherlands 30 5.33 35.33 3
9 France 25 8.00 33.00 8
10 Turkey 22 10.00 32.00 11
11 Portugal 23 8.33 31.33 10
12 Italy 20 11.33 31.33 12.1
13 Sweden 17 12.00 29.00 16
14 Japan 15 13.33 28.33 18
15 Denmark 19 7.67 26.67 14
16 Germany 11 15.67 26.67 22
17 Nigeria 21 2.67 23.67 12
18 Croatia 13 8.33 21.33 19.1
19 Cameroon 18 3.00 21.00 15
20 Korea Republic 5 15.00 20.00 31