Freddy Adu's Chances for Germany

[SamsArmySam]

CAUTION - LONG POST

There have been several posts on BigSoccer recently that have said very confidently that Freddy Adu is not going to Germany. I was surprised it was so obvious to everyone else, so I thought I'd do some research on Google and USSoccer to see what Bruce has had to say about that topic over the recent past.

The trend I see below is that the door is still open for Freddy, and I'd be surprised if we don't see him in the January camp.

12/03 USSoccer story

On the possibility of any of the current Under-20 MNT players having the chance to be called into a full MNT camp in 2004:

"You're not trying to get me to say that Freddy Adu is going to play with us, are you? Obviously, all kidding aside, Bobby Convey is a player in our pool. After that, we will look at players as we move forward…. [other players like EJ, Clark mentioned] We know Freddy Adu is a kid with a lot of potential, and we're going to continue to track him and hopefully move him along properly and don't ask too much out of him in the early going as a professional…."

1/04 USSoccer Chat

whip101: Bruce... It is a posibility that you could use Freddy Adu on some easy games?

Bruce Arena: I've never heard of an easy game at this level. Freddy Adu is like any player that would be under consideration for a national team roster. If he demonstrates the potential to be a member of our team, he would be given the opportunity. I think at this point in time, we need him to develop as a professional with D.C. United, and as he progresses he will certainly be given his due consideration for our various national team programs.

2/04 US camp pre-Haiti in Bradenton, FL

The team also had the benefit of a guest player for part of the week, as local resident and D.C. United forward Freddy Adu joined in sessions when the schedule permitted.

8/04 Q&A with Bruce Arena

CC: How many years in MLS will it take before Freddy Adu is one of the top players in the league?

BA: “I don’t know the answer to that question. It’s important that he moves along at the right pace. I think the expectations were too great in the early going, and as the pressure has subsided, he’s had a chance to breathe a little bit and been able to get on the field and be a little bit better. But at this point in time, he’s clearly behind a lot of players in the league on a physical side. Technically, he’s a good player, but tactically, he’s got a ways to go. I’d like to believe that in a short period of time he’s going to develop into a pretty good player. The time frame, whether it’s a year, two years, three years, four years, in the end, Freddy’s going to surface into being one of the better players in the league.”

5/05 USA Today interview
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/soccer/national/2005-05-10-arena-q&a_x.htm

USA TODAY: Officially qualifying and setting your 23-man roster for 2006 is still a ways off, but where do you stand in terms of your personnel of 70-plus players and preparation compared to four years ago? Could Freddy Adu emerge from this group?

ARENA: "…There are players who (could) score the winning goal to (help us) qualify that won't make this (World Cup) roster. Some players are in their 30s. The World Cup average age of teams is probably 27-28. We're older than that, generally because a lot of our players actually go to college. Around the world, the elite players sign at early ages, and if they're any good they're fully merged at the age of 18 (in the pros). When you get to a World Cup final, you can't have too many older players because of recovery, so this time around we're going to be a little bit younger. Our players right now who are in their 30s are going to be on the fence in terms of making a roster....

"This time around we've been able to get younger ones in (during qualifying) and maybe Freddy Adu is one of those stories. Freddy is going to be a great player. He may not be a great player in time for this World Cup, but he's an example of someone who might emerge in another year if he continues to grow in that environment with D.C. United."

[Shackleton]

There's really nothing in those Arena quotes to say Adu either will or will not make the WC roster. Basically, Arena says Freddy has a lot of potential and will be considered like anyone else.

Something I wonder about is whether Arena would be less likely to include Adu in the roster because of either (1) potential internal team conflicts or (2) unwanted media attention/scrutiny/pressure. Alternatively, would Arena be more likely to include Adu because of either (1) desired media attention/marketing or (2) wanting to get a possible future star experience to better prepare him for 2010.

[Maldini#3]

This was a really long post but his chances are still nil. Freddy's got potential, that's it. There are already plenty enough players in the pool that have realized their potential and are better than Freddy. Sorry Freddy, see you in South Africa.

[DCFAN96]

This was a really long post but his chances are still nil. Freddy's got potential, that's it. There are already plenty enough players in the pool that have realized their potential and are better than Freddy. Sorry Freddy, see you in South Africa.

I gotta agree, but I won't say his chances are nil but its real slim. He'd basically have to tear thru competition next year in MLS to even have just a chance.

[H]

I gotta agree, but I won't say his chances are nil but its real slim. He'd basically have to tear thru competition next year in MLS to even have just a chance.

I think he has to be invited to the January-February camp and make a good showing then to have a chance. Arena might use that camp to narrow the competition for the last three or four slots. Maybe by the end of that camp he will be down to two players competing for each of those slots, with the outcome to be determined in the three friendlies scheduled for March and April. At forward, I think there are two slots open. One is for a second target forward after McBride. Good chance Ching, Twellman and Buddle are brought in to compete for that slot. The second is for a quick forward to come off the bench. Logical candidates for that would be Wolffe, Cunningham, Adu and Gomez. Not sure where that would leave someone like Noonan.

[Adam Zebrowski]

i'd say about 5% chance, basically because there aren't many attcking options who'd fit the sub off the bench role...

still, freddy would need to improve, but it's not impossible for him to do so in 6 months....

if cunningham and wolff are the competition, nothing is impossible...

some times things just click over night...and you never know when that will happen in a 16 year old

[MLSNHTOWN]

His chances are not nil.

My chances are nil. Not his........

The MLS playoffs are on the horizon and lately Freddy (in his limited time with DCU) has been playing great. So that leaves the MLS playoffs for Freddy to either make a case that Arena should bring him in, or for him to force Arena to bring him in. Either way, it is on his shoulders. If he does well in the playoffs, then he will get called in January. If not, Arena can just as easily bring him in as leave him as he would still be a fringe player.

I do think those quotes do seem to have changed a bit. The first two years, Arena is saying the kid isn't ready, give him time, he needs to be a professional first, etc. Then in the most recent quote, Arena seems to say that Freddy may be one of the younger ones that makes the squad, it really depends on how much he improves.


I just got done watching Napolean Dynamite, so let's look at his skills and compare them with the USMNT pool.

A. First Touch - As good as most anyone in the USMNT pool.
B. Vision - As good as most anyone in the USMNT pool.
C. Dribbling skils - As good as most anyone in the USMNT pool.
D. Outside shot - Not great, but better than most in the USMNT pool.
E. Speed/Quickness - Not the "fastest" like DMB, but he is relatively fast (compared to say a JOB or a Reyna).
F. Aerial skills - Sub par at best.
G. Ability to hold off challenges/Physical - sub par at best, improved a lot over last year but does have problems here. Usually he gets in to trouble when he is too agressive and/or tries to do too much.
H. Team play (off the ball runs, combo play etc.) - average to slightly above
I. Defensive ability - weak

That is Freddy Adu right now...a fringe player. Certainly he could have been called upon by now...but he hasn't. The other thing going for Freddy is that in the summer 2006, he may be much improved. So that Freddy Adu, might no longer be a fringe player. Which is also why I think Arena brings him in in January.

F: McBride, Johnson, Twellman
MF: LD, DMB, Lewis, Convey, Mastro, JOB, Reyna, Ralston/Q

More MF spots open up if say a Lewis shifts to LB or if there is an injury to Reyna/JOB (never happened before, can't happen in the future)

So we look at Dempsey, Herculez, Martino, Ching, Q, West, Wolff, Gaven etc. to fill that one spot maybe two. I think you can make arguemtns that most of these options have been tried and don't seem to impress Arena enough. So why not Adu? Can it hurt to bring him into camp and see if he has what it takes? Especially since some speculate that if he is surrounded with better players his play will improve. Especially since a lot of fringe players seem to get their first call up and learn from the euro vets or others what it takes to make it to the USMNT and work that much harder to get back there againt.

[wjarrettc]

I think it's possible that Bruce might name Adu to the roster as an alternate but doubt he'll dress for any of the games. My rationale...if Bruce thinks that Adu will be a major part of the qualifying campaign in 2008-2009, he might want to include Freddy in the travelling group to give him a chance to be around the more senior players and see how they handle themselves on the world stage.

[Adam Zebrowski]

if adu doesn't make the squad, I suspect playing for dc united next june is better than watching some practices and getting a feel for the environment...

ronaldo in 1994 might be the model, but I don't know if arena views the last roster spot as parreirra did...

still us soccer with adu on the roster would get more publicity...

but arena is MORE pragmatic than any AD campaign, so I see adu HAVING to prove himself, otherwise it's mls matches for him

[StymieG]

Something I wonder about is whether Arena would be less likely to include Adu in the roster because of either (1) potential internal team conflicts or (2) unwanted media attention/scrutiny/pressure. Alternatively, would Arena be more likely to include Adu because of either (1) desired media attention/marketing or (2) wanting to get a possible future star experience to better prepare him for 2010.
I don't think Arena will be more or less likely to include Adu for any of these reasons. I've never read about any team chemistry issues surrounding Adu. Bruce will bring into camp and to Germany the players who are most likely to contribute to the team's success in 2006, period. And this is how it should be. Exposure for US Soccer is nice, but it's not Bruce's job. And there will be plenty of time to prepare players for South Africa starting in July.

I personally would like to see Adu in the January camp because he is a good player who can play forward, a position we are pretty thin at. But given that he wasn't called up for Costa Rica or Panama, I don't think the odds of that are very good. And if he doesn't get called to the January camp, the odds of him getting called up before June are pretty much nil.

[uniteo]

As I said in an earlier thread on this topic, Freddy's got a real chance. I don't think he has any chance to make it as a 90 minute player. But in assembling the best TEAM, the final few spots will go to role players.

You need an offensive player with lots of speed on your bench
You need a guy that can play wide and deliver quality crosses
You need a guy that can own every ball in the air...

Now some of these needs will be met by guys who are 90-minute players. But with his ability to attack on the dribble, passing ability, and his quickness, Freddy is a player who would be great to have on the bench when you pull a defender for an attacking player with 10 or 15 minutes left in a game where you've got a must-score situation. Bring him on, he draws defensive interest, maybe wins a FK or PK.

Freddy the role-player.

[AndyMead]

if adu doesn't make the squad, I suspect playing for dc united next june is better than watching some practices and getting a feel for the environment...

ronaldo in 1994 might be the model, but I don't know if arena views the last roster spot as parreirra did...


And the difference between #1 and #23 in the U.S. isn't as great as it is for Brazil. We're more likely to need player #23 than they were. Taking a youngster "along for the ride to feel the experience" doesn't really factor in. The only way Adu goes to Germany is if Arena feels that Adu will contribute if he's called upon.

[dredgfan]

i'd say his chances are pretty good

if he can find and buy a ticket

[chad]

We need to have someone on the bench who can come in and challenge defenses, earn free kicks, and make a killer pass. We all know that it is hard to come from behind in soccer. It is impossible to do so if you do not have the right sort of players to come in.

Who do we have that can do this role?
- Not Twellman
- Not Cunningham
- Not Ching

So Adu is not a perfect player, but to say that you know NOW that he cannot be of use during the WC is just to show your arrogance and faith, neither of which will in fact win us games. We are an abysmal team at coming from behind, and Arena needs to try to figure out how to solve this. It might come down to grabbing a goal to get us through the group stage, and inserting old defenders, backup target forwards, and redundant midfielders doesn't seem to be working.

I wonder how many of you geniuses thought DMB and LD would be in 02, let alone play such important roles. You guys have the collective wisdom of a bag of rocks.

[Maldini#3]

You need an offensive player with lots of speed on your bench
You need a guy that can play wide and deliver quality crosses
You need a guy that can own every ball in the air...


Freddy the role-player.

Please pass the peace pipe to me because Freddy will not own the ball in the air. Freddy is tiny (5'8", 140 lbs) and will get demolished on the international level. Someone like Onyewu (6'2", 180), McBride (6'1", 170) or Ching (6'1", 195) owns the ball in the air.

Freddy can play wide and has speed ... but he also lacks International Experience at the highest level ... International Experience at the second highest level ... International Experience at the Club Level (friendlies with European teams in preseason form don't count) ... That's a hard sell. More people are worthy of the reserve spot than him ...

[FirstStar]

And the difference between #1 and #23 in the U.S. isn't as great as it is for Brazil. We're more likely to need player #23 than they were. Taking a youngster "along for the ride to feel the experience" doesn't really factor in.

I agree with your proposition about the talent gap, but I'm not sure the facts support your conclusion. In 2002 (when we went further and experienced more card trouble than ever before), roster slot #23 (Regis) played 0 minutes and roster slot #22 (Llamosa) played 12.

It's possible that Bruce is thinking (dreaming, perhaps) about winning that Quarterfinal game and then needing that 8th defender. Still, if we are playing our 8th defender in the knock-out rounds, we are in for a beating. It's much more likely that that slot #23 will not see any action, or will not be an essential part of any formation.

Based on these facts, what would you do? Bring the 8th defender in the US player pool, knowing their limitations and the absence of significant upside? Bring a potential game-breaker (like Freddy or Brian West) who might never see the field? To me, it's a lark either way. Why not bring a youngster who, in Bruce's words, "will be great" one day? The experience could help (unless, as I've said many times, Bruce thinks it will go to his head and ruin him).

Personally, I've been holding out that J. Spector should be the #23 shirt, but it now appears that he may play his way up higher on the depth chart. After him, I think an attacking mid/forward with game-breaking potential is not a bad choice.

[Minnman]

His chances are not nil.

A. First Touch - As good as most anyone in the USMNT pool.
B. Vision - As good as most anyone in the USMNT pool.
C. Dribbling skils - As good as most anyone in the USMNT pool.
D. Outside shot - Not great, but better than most in the USMNT pool.
E. Speed/Quickness - Not the "fastest" like DMB, but he is relatively fast (compared to say a JOB or a Reyna).
F. Aerial skills - Sub par at best.
G. Ability to hold off challenges/Physical - sub par at best, improved a lot over last year but does have problems here. Usually he gets in to trouble when he is too agressive and/or tries to do too much.
H. Team play (off the ball runs, combo play etc.) - average to slightly above
I. Defensive ability - weak



J. International experience - None at the senior level

Arena's not one to take an untested player to a WC unless he has no other choice; think Mastroeni, but even then PM was an experienced player in MLS. Not to mention Pablo wasn't 16 in 2002 (or 17, if that's how old FA will be by next summer).

Even at 3rd string keeper, Bruce took along Meola instead of someone like Howard.

Didn't BA recently say something about how 2002 proved that you need to bring a roster of guys to a WC who all are going to be ready to play/contribute, are injury free, etc.? It's similar to what he says in that USA Today interview. However, while FA might be young, injury free and, hence, physically able to play with comparatively little rest, he has no record of performing at this (i.e., WC-quality) level. He's not even played 90 minutes in all that many MLS games.

Maybe injuries will force Bruce's hand. But, even so, Freddy will have to do a lot to get any real shot at making the WC roster. Being a "fringe player" in the US player pool isn't the issue. There will be no true fringe players on the final roster. All or nearly all field players will play, and an injury or red card to a Starting XI player could quickly thrust a "back-up" into the spotlight. That's a far cry from qualifying where you can re-vamp rosters from game to game based on fitness, injuries, suspensions or form.

That said, I'd like to see him called up into the January camp. There's no harm in that. 2010 isn't that far off, Freddy.

[chad]

Can someone please tell us the alternative attacking subs Arena should take?

[Ronaldo's Idol]

Adu is certainly a fringe player at best right now...but I think a very strong argument can be made that he was as deserving of a callup as some of the players who have played for the US this year. Even more so when you consider those who have been invited into camp but haven't been capped.

I think everyone recognizes that Adu has at least equaled the abilities of the very worst players who have been called in so far this year (Caroll, Corrales etc.). So if anything, Adu is really really on the verge of being called in if Arena isn't intentionally waiting longer than he would for other players.

I've noticed a major upswing in Adu's play with DC lately, and if it continues through the playoffs he will make a serious push for getting capped in the spring. It will be exciting to see, whether it goes well or not.

[michael greene]

Is there a pool on the number of different "Adu to Germany" threads that will be started between now and June? If so, my entry is 38.

Carry on.