2005 Projections - Revisited

[Nutmeg]

At the end of last year, I put together a list of projections for 2005 and US Soccer on this thread (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=153590&page=1&pp=15&highlight=%2Ahex%2A). I thought it would be fun to revisit them now as the year wraps up. First, to avoid having to read through the entire thread to find them, here are my consolidated projections:

(The games next to the players are those in which that player participated in 2004)

Goalkeepers:

Kasey Keller (@Holland, @Poland, @Grenada, Grenada, @Jamaica, @Panama, @El Salvador, Panama, Jamaica)

Kasey had a consistently strong year and solidified himself as Arena’s #1 keeper, playing all but one WCQ. His club situation is a question mark, but apparently that doesn’t concern Arena at all. I tend to agree with Arena here. Keller has always played big for the US team, and he’s so familiar with his teammates and the coaching staff that there’s no reason he shouldn’t be the top keeper until his play on the field proves otherwise.

Johnny Walker (Denmark, Haiti, Mexico)

Nothing wrong with Walker’s play on the US team, but his play with the Metros could have been better. Being in the US made him the de facto backup in 2004. Overall, his US stock is way up over any previous year, but with the talent available to Arena at the keeper position, his spot on the depth chart is a tenuous one at best. Walker has to be more consistent at the club level, or his stock will drop just as quickly.

Tim Howard (Honduras, Poland, El Salvador)

2004 has been a rough year on Tim. In two games for the US, he had almost nothing to do. In the one game he did need to make a play against Poland, he didn’t. The fact that he’s riding pine at Man U won’t help him get higher on Arena’s depth chart. At this stage in Howard’s career, nothing is more important than game experience. Unlike Keller, he doesn’t have hundreds of club games under his belt and a longstanding history of consistently great play for the US team. If Tim wants to move up the chart, he needs to be playing.

Kevin Hartman (Haiti)

A sub in the US’ worst game of the year, and then not called upon again. Never one of Arena’s top candidates, one substitution in a friendly early in the year is not a good trend for Hartman.

2005 Projections

I don’t see much movement here. Keller will continue to be Arena’s guy, even if Howard does get playing time. Apparently the feud between Keller and Friedel was bad enough that Arena has made his choice and moved on. I’d be surprised if Big Brad played for the US next year, unless for some reason Keller wasn’t available and Howard and Walker were both still struggling. Don’t be surprised if Matt Reis and Adin Brown both get friendly call ups at some point, but don’t count on either of them getting time in a game that matters.

[Nutmeg]

Central Defenders:

Eddie Pope (Denmark, Haiti, Mexico, @Grenada, Poland, @Jamaica, @Panama, @El Salvador, Panama)

Eddie was still the man in the middle for the US in 2004. Eddie had some outstanding games, especially against Mexico. Unfortunately, Eddie also had a couple of poor performances for the US, with his worst outing coming at Panama. Eddie struggled more than he has in the past at the club level, too, on occasion getting caught out of position or outpaced by MLS attackers. This is a major concern for Arena and the US team. In the past, Eddie was the rock we never questioned.

Carlos Bocanegra (see Left Backs)

Pablo Mastroeni (see Holding Midfielders)

Cory Gibbs (@Holland, Haiti, Honduras, @Grenada, El Salvador, @El Salvador, Jamaica)

Also on the left back depth chart, Cory had a strong year for the US, most notably with a standout game in Holland. His club play in Dallas was inconsistent. Sometimes he was a brick wall, sometimes he lost his focus and his play suffered. He has all the physical qualities loved by Arena in a defender, and he hasn’t had what could be termed a bad performance for the US.

Greg Berhalter (@Holland, @Poland, @El Salvador, Panama)

A pretty quiet year for Berhalter, as he played only in the European friendlies and then as WCQ wrapped up. Coming off some big-time injuries, just getting healthy and back onto the field for both Cottbus and the US was important for Greg.

Oguchi Onyewu (Panama, Jamaica)

Obviously a player Bruce feels is worth investing in. It’s not often your first caps under Arena come in WCQ games. Onyewu has also played very well according to reports at Standard Liege. With more first team professional experience under his belt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the top 3 on next year’s depth chart.

Tony Sanneh (Haiti, @Poland, Honduras, Jamaica)

Also somewhere on the right backs depth chart, Sanneh had a subpar year for the US, but a very good year for Columbus. Like Berhalter, the fact that he is healthy and playing again was Tony’s biggest win. If he can regain 100% fitness and form, Sanneh may move up the central defense chart very quickly.

Danny Califf (Haiti), Nick Garcia (Denmark)

Barring a catastrophic rash of injuries to the US backline, I don’t think either of these guys will ever see a US jersey again.


2005 Projections

I see some openings on this depth chart. There is a history of injury for a lot of these players, and a few of them, to be blunt, are old. Chad Marshall will be a factor in 2005, and I predict he’ll get caps in friendlies, Gold Cup matches, and in later qualifiers. Also keep an eye out for Jonathan Spector and Frank Simek. If they get long-term loans and perform well, don’t be surprised if they both get calls in the second half of 2005 as central defenders.

Obviously the biggest concern is Pope. If his form continues to trend downward, that’s bad news for Arena. The other concern is that the US still hasn’t found a replacement for Jeff Agoos. What I mean by that is Arena wants one vocal leader in the back to organize the defense. Mastroeni and Berhalter have taken on that role successfully in the past, but Mastroeni looks to have moved back into the midfield and Berhalter hasn’t been a reliable option this year.

I think that we’ll see much more movement in central defense in 2005 than we’ve seen in a long time as Arena looks to find his best combination for the World Cup.

[Nutmeg]

Outside Defenders:

Left Backs

Carlos Bocanegra (@Holland, Haiti, @Poland, Honduras, Grenada, Poland, @Jamaica, El Salvador, @Panama, Panama)

When it comes to not getting to play in his best position (central defender), Boca is a victim of both his own versatility and a lack of quality options for the US at left back. On top of that, he plies his trade as a left back for Fulham so until a better option steps up and grabs the spot, he’s the man. Against weaker opponents like Panama, that was more than OK. He had a monster game when the US wrapped up qualification in RFK.

Bobby Convey (Denmark, @Holland, Haiti, @Poland, Mexico, Honduras, @Grenada, Poland, El Salvador)

At the beginning of 2004, the left back position was Bobby’s to lose. By far his best game of the year was against Mexico, where his overlapping runs and skill on the ball caused Mexico all kinds of problems. Early in 2004, if the US was playing, Bobby was too. Then he was transferred to England Championship League club Reading. Since then, his playing time for both club and country have gone south, and it remains to be seen when Convey will resurface for either team.

Greg Vanney (@Poland, Honduras, Grenada, @Grenada, @Jamaica, @Panama)

After basically falling off the radar screen, Vanney reemerged with a respectable performance in Poland. He then locked himself into Arena’s lineup with a good performance against Grenada as WCQ kicked off. He faded just as suddenly with two horrendous gaffes that led to goals against the US in Jamaica and Panama. He hasn’t been seen with the US since, although he is playing regularly for French side Bastia.

Jonathan Spector (Jamaica)

Spector showed big promise for Manchester United early in the Premiership season when other players were injured. When they returned, Spector returned to the reserve side, in spite of his good play. Rumors have him on a long-term loan in January to West Brom. If that goes through and Spector gets big minutes in the back, he’ll be more of an option to Arena in the hex.


Right Backs

Frankie Hejduk (Denmark, @Holland, Mexico, @Grenada, @Jamaica, @Panama, @El Salvador, Panama)

Frankie has emerged as Bruce’s trusted option at right back. His best game was against Mexico. His worst game was at Panama. He was left to fend for himself against Robben in Holland, an Arena mistake that ended up costing the US a goal. Played all over the field for C-bus, and had an unspectacular season for the Crew. Arena has flatly stated that he thinks Frankie is a better defender than other current options.

Steve Cherundolo (@Holland, @Poland, Honduras, Grenada, Poland, El Salvador)
Cherundolo played very well in Poland, and then was used by Arena in home games as an offensive weapon coming out of the back. Steve has said that this season has been by far his best professional campaign, a locked-in starter for Hannover who is getting looks from bigger clubs all over Europe, but especially Germany.

Chris Albright (Denmark, Haiti, Poland, Jamaica)

His first season as a professional right back was a success with the Galaxy. Skilled on the ball, great speed, strength, and fitness, size, and a strong passer and crosser from the right back position. Still improving in the tactical aspects of the position, Arena may lean on Albright more as he gets more experience with the Galaxy. His play against both as a sub against Poland and a starter against Jamaica was good, and he was possibly the Man of the Match against Jamaica.


2005 Projections
Keep an eye out for one kid – Danny Karbassiyoon. It’s now or never for Danny, who has played regularly for the Arsenal reserve team at left back as well as on the Arsenal Carling Cup team that has disposed of full-blown Premiership teams. There is close to zero chance Danny gets any PT on Arsenal’s first team while Cole and Glichy are ahead of him, so the Carling Cup is Danny’s showcase. Should he get a January loan and regular PT starting early next year, he could become part of Arena’s plans late in 2005.

Also watch for Albright. Arena likes everything about him as far as his physical attributes and his skill goes. If he improves tactically, he could move up to number one on the right back depth chart.

[Nutmeg]

Defensive/Holding Midfielders

Claudio Reyna (@Holland, @Poland, Honduras, Grenada, @Grenada, @Jamaica, El Salvador, @Panama)
I know there are some that would still list Claudio as an attacking midfielder, but I think those days are over. Overall, Claudio had a bad year for the US. The one bright spot was his game as the only DMid partnered with Mathis in central midfield at Poland. His club play hasn’t been much better, and he now finds himself recovering from yet another injury, this time a torn quadriceps. Still, when he is healthy, he remains a lock in Arena’s starting lineup.

Kerry Zavagnin (Denmark, @Poland, Mexico, @Grenada, El Salvador, @El Salvador, Panama)
Zavagnin started 2004 as a minor blip on the national team radar. He finished the year as our most consistent holding midfielder. Two games that stand out for Kerry were his performance against Mexico, where his work in central midfield allowed Donovan and Beasley to run free, and then against Panama, where he was the best player on the field until Eddie Johnson was subbed in. Kerry also had a standout year for KC, where despite teammates all around him dropping like flies, he led the Wizards to the league’s best record and title game.

Pablo Mastroeni (@Poland, , Mexico, @Grenada, Poland, , Panama, Jamaica)
After struggling in 2003, Pablo had a lot to prove coming into 2004. He came through. Two of his best performances were in central defense (which is why I listed him so high on that depth chart) at Poland and against Mexico, a game in which Pablo completely dominated the backline. He finished the year on a high note, this time as a defensive midfielder against Jamaica. Pablo’s versatility virtually guarantees him big minutes somewhere on the field through 2005, and probably 2006.

Chris Armas (Denmark, @Holland, Haiti, @Poland, Mexico, Honduras, Grenada, @Grenada, @Jamaica)
In order to avoid starting anymore flame wars, I’ve committed to not discussing the Armas topic. If anyone else would like to comment on his club performance or his performance in the games listed above, feel free.

Clint Dempsey (Jamaica)
MLS Rookie of the Year, and one of the most versatile players in the pool, Dempsey pulled a rare feat when he got his first cap in his first camp in a WCQ. His senior team introduction was rocky, but towards the end he settled in and played better. Look for Clint in early 2005 friendlies, and then to enter the Hex squad later in the year.

Ramiro Corrales (Jamaica)
Corrales had a decent year for his club team, but laid an egg in Jamaica. I don’t expect to see him in a US uniform anytime soon.

Richard Mulrooney (Denmark, Haiti)
After playing a lot of minutes in 2003 for the US, Arena pulled the plug on Mulrooney’s time with the national team after Mulrooney played short minutes as a sub in the Haiti debacle. Mulrooney likely doesn’t figure into any 2005 plans.

2005 Projections
I see some movement happening here. John O’brien will play in 2005 – it is just a matter of when. That bumps every single one of these guys one notch down on the holding midfielder depth chart. Watch for Ricardo Clark to get game time in the 2005 friendlies, likely paired with Clint Dempsey at some point.

But when it comes to qualifiers, like it or not, Arena will stick with the tried and true. That means Claudio, Kerry, Pablo, and Armas, and when he’s healthy again, O’brien. I wouldn’t advise making any bets on the younger generation of holding midfielders – Clark and Dempsey – getting any significant PT in any meaningful games until late in the hex. Keep an eye out for Szetela’s progress in Columbus. He’s a very, very long shot, but his talent may be too much to ignore in a competition like the Gold Cup.

[Nutmeg]

Attacking/Wide Midfielders

Landon Donovan (Denmark, @Holland, Haiti, Mexico, Honduras, Grenada, @Grenada, Poland, @Jamaica, El Salvador, @Panama, @El Salvador, Panama, Jamaica)
The US Soccer player of the year. 2004 was a breakthrough for Landon where he emerged as the team leader and captain. His performance against Mexico was the best performance we have seen from a US midfielder since O'brien's overall performance in the 2002 World Cup. Given the captain's armband, Landon became a monster in World Cup Qualifying, helping to throttle Panama by a 6-0 margin. When Bruce Arena sits down to fill out his starting lineup, this is where he starts. Landon's upcoming transfer to Leverkusen is a double-edged sword for the US team. The biggest benefit is that Landon gets top-tier, pressure-packed experience in the country where eventually he'll be leading the US team. The drawback is that travel to and from Arena's camps just got a whole lot tougher.

DaMarcus Beasley (Denmark, @Holland, Haiti, @Poland, Mexico, Honduras, Grenada, @Grenada, Poland, @Jamaica, El Salvador, @Panama, @El Salvador, Panama)
Run DMB indeed. DaMarcus, like Landon, broke through in 2004 as a team leader. His transfer to PSV was an important stepping stone for DaMarcus, as it was obvious his heart wasn't in MLS this year. He's still got some growing to do, but so far, he's played well enough to get minutes on a Champions League team that is dominating their domestic league and CL group. His performance with the US was consistently outstanding. As long as he's healthy, he's playing for the US.

Eddie Lewis (@Holland,Honduras, Grenada, @Jamaica, @Panama, @El Salvador, Panama)
Eddie continues to be a very nice change up to the fastball that is DMB. A locked-in starter for Preston North End, Eddie's strength of playing wide and serving the ball will be useful in qualifiers against teams who pack it in against the US. Two good examples of that in 2004 were his performances against Honduras and Panama.

Chris Klein (Denmark, @Poland)
Klein was having an awesome year in KC prior to his injury, and would have played a much more prominent role for the US. He played pretty well in Poland. Like Lewis, Klein will be platooned when the situation makes sense.

Clint Mathis (@Holland, @Poland, Poland, El Salvador, @Panama, @El Salvador)
In every respect, Mathis has had better years. Not in Hannover's plans at all, his club situation will be key in determining what role, if any, he plays for the US in the Hex. His game in Poland reminded us what he's capable of at his best. A few other games reminded us why he frustrates everyone associated with US Soccer so much.

Steve Ralston (Denmark, Haiti, Jamaica)
After what was for him a busy year in 2003, Ralston fell off the map early in 2004 following two uninspiring performances against Denmark and Haiti. Ralston's play in MLS must have changed Bruce's mind. Playing anywhere and everywhere he was needed, Ralston's performance this year in New England was the ultimate in team-first play. He played OK against Jamaica, but remains a situational player on the fringe of any US roster.

Eddie Gaven (Poland)
For my money, the story of the year in MLS was Eddie Gaven. Yes, he faded a little down the stretch. No, he isn't a finished product. Yes, he has a lot of work to do to become a complete player. But the instincts he has for the game cannot be coached. His apathy regarding which particular foot the ball happens to be on is world class. His vision on the ball is as good - right now - as any player in the pool. In his one appearance for the US, Poland could do nothing but foul Eddie. Imagine what is going to happen when (not if) Eddie plays against Mexico in Mexico. Watch your ankles.

Cobi Jones (@Jamaica, El Salvador, @Panama, @El Salvador)
When Bruce Arena sits down to fill out his holiday cards, Cobi had better be at the top of the list, and that card had better include a nice little thank-you-for-saving-our-ass present. Cobi, consider this mine - thanks. Somehow, despite not having a very healthy season for the Galaxy, Cobi found enough juice in the tanks to bail us out in two away games. Had Cobi not been onside (Ha!) and finished that goal in Panama, our final game against Jamaica would have been a whole different party.

Brian Mullan (Poland)
Brian appears to a project Bruce is working on for the future. What's not to like? Speed, fitness, defensive tenacity, fearlessness in taking people on? Sounds good to me. It will really be interesting, though, to see if/how Mullan steps up with the Quakes now that Landon is gonzo. He was shaky in his debut in Poland. He'll get minutes in early 2005 friendlies, and we'll see where it goes from there.

Earnie Stewart (Honduras, @Grenada, Grenada, @Jamaica)
I have too much respect for Earnie to slag him here. Thanks for everything you've done for US Soccer, EarnieGol. I'll see you in Germany - in the stands.

Pat Noonan (Haiti)
Unless he rips it up big-time in New England next year, I think Pat finds himself swimming in a pool too deep for him to tread water.

2005 Projections
Bruce played around a lot in 2004 all over the midfield. Sorry boys, but now the store if open for business. This group consists of Landon Donovan, DaMarcus Beasley, and everybody else.

If those two are healthy and available, they are playing. End of story. That means the other two spots in midfield will come down to what’s going on in defensive midfield. If Bruce only wants one guy as DMid, then a spot will open up for a 3rd attacker. If we see a box midfield with two DMids, then everybody not named Landon or DaMarcus will be watching on the sidelines, if not at home.

One player is capable of forcing Bruce’s hand a little here – Eddie Gaven. He may have too much skill for Bruce to keep him off the field, especially against opponents who pack it in and force us to be creative. The other guys – particularly Eddie Lewis and Chris Klein, will be brought in when the situation calls for it. Mullan could make a breakthrough, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

[Nutmeg]

Huh. I guess I never did get to the forwards. My bad.

Overall, not bad. Some misses:

Marcus Hahneman - Didn't see him coming on like he did.

Eddie Lewis - Never thought of him at Left Back. IMO, Bruce's best surprise move this year.

Danny Karbissiyoon - Fell off the map w/ an injury.

Califf and Garcia - Continue to be in the central defender depth chart, Califf especially after last night.

Jimmy Conrad - Didn't see him coming on so strong, but he's disappeared after the Gold Cup.

Eddie Gaven - Had a disappointing year. I thought he'd make more of a mark.

[cleat/less]

barring any injuries:


Keller, marcus h, howard
cherundolo, gooch, gibbs, lewis, albright, berhalter, marshall, heydude
quaranta, reyna, o'brien, beas, ralston, mastro, martino, convey
mcbride, donovan, GAM, twellman

maybe's:
dempsey in lieu of martino
wolff in lieu of GAM (maybe he doesn't come back strong after the injuries)
pope in lieu of gibbs (maybe he doesn't come back strong after the injury)
spector in lieu of heydude
califf/boca in lieu of berhalter/marshall
____________ in lieu of o'brien (for obvious reasons)

my two cents anyway.

[Sinter]

there is no reason for Albright or Twellman to make the WC roster unless injuries dictate they should. Both barely make it against mediocre teams, they'd get torn up against the best in the world.

[cleat/less]

there is no reason for Albright or Twellman to make the WC roster unless injuries dictate they should. Both barely make it against mediocre teams, they'd get torn up against the best in the world.

then who do you think goes instead of either?