Can England qualify as best runner-up?

[sicnarf]

I've got a bit obsessed with working out whether England might clinch
one of the two "Best Runners-up" qualification places.

It was looking almost a dead cert before that loss against Northern
Ireland, but now it's pretty complicated.

So, here are the teams ranked based on their results so far
against the top 6 teams in their groups - I've only considered
those teams that can currently beat or equal England's current
points total of 19.


Group Rank Team P GF GA GD Pts MaxPts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
6 1 Poland 9 26 7 19 24 27
1 2 Holland 8 22 3 19 22 28
8 3 Sweden 8 27 2 25 21 27
8 4 Croatia 8 20 5 15 20 26
6 5 England 8 14 4 10 19 25
1 6 Czech Republic 8 25 9 16 18 24
3 7 Portugal 8 19 4 15 18 24
2 Qualified Ukraine 9 12 4 8 18 21
1 8 Romania 9 15 9 6 18 21
5 9 Italy 8 14 7 7 17 23
7 10 Serbia Montenegro 8 13 1 12 16 22
4 11 Switzerland 8 17 6 11 16 22
4 12 France 8 9 1 8 16 22
3 13 Russia 9 14 11 3 16 19
4 14 Israel 9 13 9 4 15 18
7 15 Spain 8 11 3 8 14 20
2 16 Turkey 9 12 9 3 14 17
3 17 Slovakia 8 16 7 9 13 19
2 18 Denmark 9 18 11 7 13 16
4 19 Rep Ireland 8 11 5 6 13 19
7 20 Bosnia Herzegovina 8 9 8 1 13 19


A number of the teams nearest to England in this ranking are
only one game away from winning their groups and qualifying
automatically. This is to England's advantage as they'll no longer
be in the running for best 2nd place, so let's assume
the following results occur on 8th October.

Gp1: Czech Republic 1-1 Holland --- ( Holland win/draw to qualify )
Gp3: Portugal 1-0 Liechtenstein --- ( Portugal win/draw to qualify )
Gp5: Italy 1-0 Slovenia ---- ( Italy win/draw to qualify - also a better result from Scotland :) come on lads! )

Gp6: England 1-0 Austria ---- If England don't win this game, they don't really deserve their play-off spot anyway. Here's hoping anyway :D



Group Rank Team P GF GA GD Pts MaxPts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
6 1 (best 2nd) Poland 9 26 7 19 24 27
1 Qualified Holland 9 23 4 19 23 26
6 2 England 9 15 4 11 22 25
8 3 Sweden 8 27 2 25 21 27
3 Qualified Portugal 9 20 4 16 21 24
8 4 Croatia 8 20 5 15 20 26
5 Qualified Italy 9 15 7 8 20 23
1 5 Czech Republic 9 26 10 16 19 22
2 Qualified Ukraine 9 12 4 8 18 21
1 6 Romania 9 15 9 6 18 21
7 7 Serbia Montenegro 8 13 1 12 16 22
4 8 Switzerland 8 17 6 11 16 22
4 9 France 8 9 1 8 16 22
3 10 Russia 9 14 11 3 16 19
4 11 Israel 9 13 9 4 15 18
7 12 Spain 8 11 3 8 14 20
2 13 Turkey 9 12 9 3 14 17
3 14 Slovakia 8 16 7 9 13 19
2 15 Denmark 9 18 11 7 13 16
4 16 Rep Ireland 8 11 5 6 13 19
7 17 Bosnia Herzegovina 8 9 8 1 13 19


As you can see, Poland would now be guaranteed a best 2nd-place, because
only England and one of Sweden/Croatia can equal their points total.
(That in itself is an advantage to England as Poland might not push so
hard to win their game on the 12th Oct)

We can also see now that the only teams capable of beating or equalling
England's points total of 22, and haven't already qualified, are marked in red above:

Gp6: Poland - not relevant from England's point of view as same group
Gp8: Sweden (max 27) / Croatia (max 26)
Gp1: Czech Rep (max 22)
Gp7: Serbia Montenegro (max 22)
Gp4: Switzerland/France (both max 22)

As you can see there are four teams who can only equal England's total, so if those teams were to drop any points, England would only be competing against Sweden/Croatia.

Therefore as only one of those can be runner-up, England would be guaranteed a best runner-up spot regardless of the result against Poland.

For those points to be dropped, we'd need the following (arguably less likely)
results to occur on 8th October:

Czech Republic 0-1 Holland -- Czech Rep LOSE instead of drawing
Lithuania 1-1 Serbia -- Serbia don't win
Switzerland 1-1 France -- Any draw, scoring or otherwise.


Even if these last three results didn't go England's way, but those
other (IMO) relatively likely results do occur:

If England draw against Poland, Poland will win the group, but
this will also put England on 23 points, meaning that the only teams
that can now beat them on points are Croatia/Sweden.

So again, England would be guaranteed a best runner-up spot.


Group Rank Team P GF GA GD Pts MaxPts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
6 Qualified Poland 10 27 8 19 25 25
1 Qualified Holland 9 23 4 19 23 26
6 1 (best 2nd) England 10 16 5 11 23 23
8 2 Sweden 8 27 2 25 21 27
3 Qualified Portugal 9 20 4 16 21 24
8 3 Croatia 8 20 5 15 20 27
5 Qualified Italy 9 15 7 8 20 23
1 4 Czech Republic 9 26 10 16 19 22
2 Qualified Ukraine 9 12 4 8 18 21
1 5 Romania 9 15 9 6 18 21
7 6 Serbia Montenegro 8 13 1 12 16 22
4 7 Switzerland 8 17 6 11 16 22
4 8 France 8 9 1 8 16 22
3 9 Russia 9 14 11 3 16 19
4 10 Israel 9 13 9 4 15 18
7 11 Spain 8 11 3 8 14 20
2 12 Turkey 9 12 9 3 14 17
3 13 Slovakia 8 16 7 9 13 19
2 14 Denmark 9 18 11 7 13 16
4 15 Rep Ireland 8 11 5 6 13 19
7 16 Bosnia Herzegovina 8 9 8 1 13 19


Hopefully this is of use or interest to someone apart from just me! ;)

[Colm]

I've got a bit obsessed with working out whether England might clinch
one of the two "Best Runners-up" qualification places.

It was looking almost a dead cert before that loss against Northern
Ireland, but now it's pretty complicated.

So, here are the teams ranked based on their results so far
against the top 6 teams in their groups - I've only considered
those teams that can currently beat or equal England's current
points total of 19.


Group Rank Team P GF GA GD Pts MaxPts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
6 1 Poland 9 26 7 19 24 27
1 2 Holland 8 22 3 19 22 28
8 3 Sweden 8 27 2 25 21 27
8 4 Croatia 8 20 5 15 20 26
6 5 England 8 14 4 10 19 25
1 6 Czech Republic 8 25 9 16 18 24
3 7 Portugal 8 19 4 15 18 24
2 Qualified Ukraine 9 12 4 8 18 21
1 8 Romania 9 15 9 6 18 21
5 9 Italy 8 14 7 7 17 23
7 10 Serbia Montenegro 8 13 1 12 16 22
4 11 Switzerland 8 17 6 11 16 22
4 12 France 8 9 1 8 16 22
3 13 Russia 9 14 11 3 16 19
4 14 Israel 9 13 9 4 15 18
7 15 Spain 8 11 3 8 14 20
2 16 Turkey 9 12 9 3 14 17
3 17 Slovakia 8 16 7 9 13 19
2 18 Denmark 9 18 11 7 13 16
4 19 Rep Ireland 8 11 5 6 13 19
7 20 Bosnia Herzegovina 8 9 8 1 13 19


A number of the teams nearest to England in this ranking are
only one game away from winning their groups and qualifying
automatically. This is to England's advantage as they'll no longer
be in the running for best 2nd place, so let's assume
the following results occur on 8th October.

Gp1: Czech Republic 1-1 Holland --- ( Holland win/draw to qualify )
Gp3: Portugal 1-0 Liechtenstein --- ( Portugal win/draw to qualify )
Gp5: Italy 1-0 Slovenia ---- ( Italy win/draw to qualify - also a better result from Scotland :) come on lads! )

Gp6: England 1-0 Austria ---- If England don't win this game, they don't really deserve their play-off spot anyway. Here's hoping anyway :D



Group Rank Team P GF GA GD Pts MaxPts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
6 1 (best 2nd) Poland 9 26 7 19 24 27
1 Qualified Holland 9 23 4 19 23 26
6 2 England 9 15 4 11 22 25
8 3 Sweden 8 27 2 25 21 27
3 Qualified Portugal 9 20 4 16 21 24
8 4 Croatia 8 20 5 15 20 26
5 Qualified Italy 9 15 7 8 20 23
1 5 Czech Republic 9 26 10 16 19 22
2 Qualified Ukraine 9 12 4 8 18 21
1 6 Romania 9 15 9 6 18 21
7 7 Serbia Montenegro 8 13 1 12 16 22
4 8 Switzerland 8 17 6 11 16 22
4 9 France 8 9 1 8 16 22
3 10 Russia 9 14 11 3 16 19
4 11 Israel 9 13 9 4 15 18
7 12 Spain 8 11 3 8 14 20
2 13 Turkey 9 12 9 3 14 17
3 14 Slovakia 8 16 7 9 13 19
2 15 Denmark 9 18 11 7 13 16
4 16 Rep Ireland 8 11 5 6 13 19
7 17 Bosnia Herzegovina 8 9 8 1 13 19


As you can see, Poland would now be guaranteed a best 2nd-place, because
only England and one of Sweden/Croatia can equal their points total.
(That in itself is an advantage to England as Poland might not push so
hard to win their game on the 12th Oct)

We can also see now that the only teams capable of beating or equalling
England's points total of 22, and haven't already qualified, are marked in red above:

Gp6: Poland - not relevant from England's point of view as same group
Gp8: Sweden (max 27) / Croatia (max 26)
Gp1: Czech Rep (max 22)
Gp7: Serbia Montenegro (max 22)
Gp4: Switzerland/France (both max 22)

As you can see there are four teams who can only equal England's total, so if those teams were to drop any points, England would only be competing against Sweden/Croatia.

Therefore as only one of those can be runner-up, England would be guaranteed a best runner-up spot regardless of the result against Poland.

For those points to be dropped, we'd need the following (arguably less likely)
results to occur on 8th October:

Czech Republic 0-1 Holland -- Czech Rep LOSE instead of drawing
Lithuania 1-1 Serbia -- Serbia don't win
Switzerland 1-1 France -- Any draw, scoring or otherwise.


Even if these last three results didn't go England's way, but those
other (IMO) relatively likely results do occur:

If England draw against Poland, Poland will win the group, but
this will also put England on 23 points, meaning that the only teams
that can now beat them on points are Croatia/Sweden.

So again, England would be guaranteed a best runner-up spot.


Group Rank Team P GF GA GD Pts MaxPts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
6 Qualified Poland 10 27 8 19 25 25
1 Qualified Holland 9 23 4 19 23 26
6 1 (best 2nd) England 10 16 5 11 23 23
8 2 Sweden 8 27 2 25 21 27
3 Qualified Portugal 9 20 4 16 21 24
8 3 Croatia 8 20 5 15 20 27
5 Qualified Italy 9 15 7 8 20 23
1 4 Czech Republic 9 26 10 16 19 22
2 Qualified Ukraine 9 12 4 8 18 21
1 5 Romania 9 15 9 6 18 21
7 6 Serbia Montenegro 8 13 1 12 16 22
4 7 Switzerland 8 17 6 11 16 22
4 8 France 8 9 1 8 16 22
3 9 Russia 9 14 11 3 16 19
4 10 Israel 9 13 9 4 15 18
7 11 Spain 8 11 3 8 14 20
2 12 Turkey 9 12 9 3 14 17
3 13 Slovakia 8 16 7 9 13 19
2 14 Denmark 9 18 11 7 13 16
4 15 Rep Ireland 8 11 5 6 13 19
7 16 Bosnia Herzegovina 8 9 8 1 13 19


Hopefully this is of use or interest to someone apart from just me! ;)Just wandering how you support both England and Scotland :eek:

[sicnarf]

Hehehe. Well, born and grew up in England. But lived in Scotland for a long time now.

It's not all that difficult, but I'll admit I get more worked up by worrying about England qualifying/winning than I do about Scotland, but I always get behind the team

Anyway you just have to support Scotland if you live up here, it just means so much to everyone, and the fans are great.

[cockney]

Just wandering how you support both England and Scotland :eek:
me thinks, there's no bloody need in quoting the previous message if you are going to say something completely unrelated to it. :confused:

[BocaFan]

Gp1: Czech Republic 1-1 Holland --- ( Holland win/draw to qualify )
Gp3: Portugal 1-0 Liechtenstein --- ( Portugal win/draw to qualify )
Gp5: Italy 1-0 Slovenia ---- ( Italy win/draw to qualify - also a better result from Scotland :) come on lads! )

Gp6: England 1-0 Austria ---- If England don't win this game, they don't really deserve their play-off spot anyway. Here's hoping anyway :D



:confused: At worse, England already has a playoff spot. Even if they lose both remaining matches.

[Smoga]

:confused: At worse, England already has a playoff spot. Even if they lose both remaining matches.

Yeah, but everyone, even England, dreads the blind draw playoff. Besides, have one poor game, and you're pretty much done.

[midknight]

me thinks, there's no bloody need in quoting the previous message if you are going to say something completely unrelated to it. :confused:

I second this...and honestly seeing as Colm already takes up half a page or so with his catchphrase quotes after every one of his posts its doubly flagrant. ;)

[sicnarf]

:confused: At worse, England already has a playoff spot. Even if they lose both remaining matches.

Yeah, sorry - that was a bit confusing wasn't it. I guess I meant that if they got beaten by Austria, then they should be thankful for having a play-off spot already guaranteed.

It's not often a team loses their last three games and still has a guaranteed play-off, is it?

[Madison midfielder38]

Thats about has confusing has one of my post that i wrote and that was all messed up. so was this and no i think England will lose before the semi-finals

[sicnarf]

Thats about has confusing has one of my post that i wrote and that was all messed up. so was this and no i think England will lose before the semi-finals

I wasn't talking about the finals or semi-finals - I was talking about the qualifying play-offs and/or the best runner-up spots :)

[Sagy]

Another way to look at the original question is to see how many points the "second" place team from each group lost. The current standing are:
Team(Group) GP Pts| GL Pts lost
=====================================
Croatia(8) 8 20 | 2 -04
England(6) 8 19 | 2 -05
Czech Republic(1) 10 24 | 2 -06
France(4) 8 16 | 2 -08
Spain(7) 8 14 | 3 -10
Slovakia(3) 10 19 | 2 -11
Norway(5) 8 12 | 2 -12
Greece(2) 10 18 | 2 -12
If England gets 4 points out of the last two games they will have -7, if they lose one of the two games they will be -8. Only second place teams from group 8 or 1 can do better (second place team from group 4 can do no better than -10).

Group 8
Sweden is -3 and Croatia is -4 a Swedish victory will drop Croatia to -7, but they are likely to have a better GD than England.
If Croatia loses points to both Sweden and Hungary (-8), then England will be ahead of them (unless England lose a game).
England could finish ahead of Sweden if Sweden gets only 1 points out of the last two games (they will be -8) and England gets 4 points or if Sweden lose both games and England win one game..

Group 1
Netherlands is -2 and Czech Rep is -6. If the Czech don't win both games they'll be -8 or worse and England will be ahead of them in case of a win and a tie.
If England gets only 3 points in the last two games, they have to hope that Andorra finishes last in group 1. In this case England might beat the Czech on GD otherwise England will lose the tie-breaker to the Czech.
If Netherlands get a point out of the last two games (they drop to -7) it will be hard for England to pass them since Netherlands are likely to have a better GD.

Bottom line, if England can't win the last two games they have to hope that the Czech lose points to Netherlands or in Finland. If the Czech sweep, England is likely to find itself in the playoff.

[sicnarf]

Nice way of looking at it - thanks Sagy.

[Dark Savante]

England will be looking to top the group not qualify as a runner-up.

[docliver]

Of course they bloody can and will. I think they will win there 2 remaining matches especially when they have something to prove to the fans .

[kevbrunton]

Realistically, the answer to the original question is that they are not that likely to qualify directly as one of the best runners-up.

IMO, they are more likely to win the group outright with 2 wins than they are to finish as best 2nd place team.

If they fail to win the group, then I feel that they will finish with at least 4 points with a win and a draw for a total of 23 points.

Sweden and Croatia would only need a win apiece to finish ahead of England and that is fairly likely. Sweden will definitely be able to handle Iceland at home. Croatia may be able to beat Sweden at home and with nothing on the line for Hungary but pride, Croatia should be able to step up there too.

The key game comes down to Czech Republic v. Netherlands. If the Czech's can win that game (which IMO is likely), then England would likely be playoff bound with a draw to Poland.

But - as I said before - I really expect England to win twice and take the top spot.

What I'd REALLY like to see happen is to see England finish 2nd and go playoff bound. Then have them draw and knock out France or Spain.

[Edgar]

Guys, it won't be a blind draw!

The draw for the three European 2006 FIFA World Cup™ play-off matches will be conducted at FIFA headquarters at 12.00 noon CET on Friday, 14 October 2005.

In the European zone, the eight group winners and the two best runners-up qualify automatically for the finals in Germany. The regulations for the FIFA World Cup™ stipulate a number of criteria to determine the two best runners-up (see FIFAworldcup.com: http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/050915/1/4npf.html ). The three remaining European places are decided in play-off matches between the other six runners-up on a home-and-away basis.

The draw for the play-offs featuring these six teams will be conducted as follows:

The six teams will be divided into two pots in accordance with the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking for September 2005 (the three highest placed will be in pot 1 and the other three in teams in pot 2).
One team will be drawn from each pot. A second draw will be conducted to determine which team will play the first leg at home.
The play-offs will be played on Saturday, 12 November 2005 and Wednesday, 16 November 2005.

Full article -> link (http://www.fifa.com/en/media/index/0,1369,110334,00.html?articleid=110334)

Another way to look at the original question is to see how many points the "second" place team from each group lost. The current standing are:
Team(Group) GP Pts| GL Pts lost
=====================================
Croatia(8) 8 20 | 2 -04
England(6) 8 19 | 2 -05
Czech Republic(1) 10 24 | 2 -06
France(4) 8 16 | 2 -08
Spain(7) 8 14 | 3 -10
Slovakia(3) 10 19 | 2 -11
Norway(5) 8 12 | 2 -12
Greece(2) 10 18 | 2 -12

At the moment:

Pot A:

Czech Republic
France
Spain

Pot B:

Greece
Norway
Slovakia

[docliver]

England WILL qualify thats that. A fire has been lit under there arses once again and i see determination in their faces. I predict 2-0 Austria and 2-1 Poland. A world cup without England is not a world cup hence problem solved we will be there in all our glory.