Possible Qualifying Formats

[KoRnNutZ1320]

how do the current semi-final and preliminary rounds go!?!??!?... i started watching last time at the beginning of the HEX so i don't know about the other rounds, can someone explain to me how they go!? thanx

[Daniel from Montréal]

Originally posted by KoRnNutZ1320
how do the current semi-final and preliminary rounds go!?!??!?... i started watching last time at the beginning of the HEX so i don't know about the other rounds, can someone explain to me how they go!? thanx

For 2000-2001:
There are some preliminary CA groups and Caribbean playoffs (are there groups?), with a bunch of loser gets another chance and interzone playoffs. Eventually, the survivors get thrown in 3 groups of 4 (semis). US and Mexico were seeded, while Canada needed a playoff against Cuba (Caribbean 3rd place or something) to get there. All other teams went through regional qualifying. The groups filled up, 3 home, 3 away, top 2 of each group move on to the hex.

This led to some weird results, notably Honduras losing courtesy of an uncharactericstic long Panama comeback (3-0 to 4-3 or something) to put them top of the group, but throw them in a group with Mexico, Canada and T&T. Honduras ended up in a much easier group by losing, with Jamaica, El Salvador and St-Vincent & Grenadines.

[JG]

Originally posted by Daniel from Montréal
This led to some weird results, notably Honduras losing courtesy of an uncharactericstic long Panama comeback (3-0 to 4-3 or something)

Panama beat Honduras 1-0 in a match where Honduras had several players missing due to injuries and suspensions from their Gold Cup melee with Peru. Honduras won the return match 3-1, but Panama won the group on goal differential by beating Nicaragua 4-0 in the final match. The spanish-language television announcers, thinking that Panama needed to score five goals to win the group, claimed that the team was celebrating at the end of the match because they had avoided finishing first in the group and would receive an easier semi-final pairing.

The Caribbean zone had 3 groups of 8 teams each, with each group played played using a single-elimination "cup" format of two-leg series. Each zone winner advanced to the semis, and the runners-up went to the interzone playoffs against the second-place Central American teams and Canada. Unfortunately, the Caribbean groups ended up unbalanced, as St. Vincent, easily the weakest of the top seeds, got the easiest draw and qualified for the semis, while superior teams like Cuba and Haiti were eliminated.

[photar74]

I like an octagonal best, because I feel it will help to improve the quality of play in the region both in terms of depth and in terms of strength at the top. I believe that more meaningful matches for a larger amount of CONCACAF sides will help imrpove the quality of all CONCACAF sides.

Obviously, an octagonal presents format problems. However, if CONCACAF can get some sort of exception to allow its WC qualifying process to begin in early February of 2004 instead of February 28th, then there are no problems. Check it out:

Prelims: 26 teams, 7 advance to seminfinals. Two rounds of home and away knockout. Panama and Cuba automatically qualify for the second knockout round. Four matchdays: February 7, Feb. 11, Feb 21, Feb 25. (Although not in the internaional calendar, these dates will be fine since none of the teams involved have a significant amount of players in top leagues.)

Semis: 16 teams, four groups of four, home-and-away league format. Top two in each group advance to octagonal. Matchdays: March 28th, April 1, June 6, June 13, June 20, June 24 (all 2004). Nine teams--Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, T & T, El Salvador, Canada and Guatemala--qualify for this round automatically.

Finals: Octagonal--home and away league, 14 matchdays. Schedule:

Matchdays 1 & 2: Early September 2004
Matchdays 3 & 4: Mid October 2004
Matchdays 5 & 6: Late March 2005
Marchadys 7-10: June 2005
Matchdays 11-12: Early September 2005
Matchdays 13-14: Mid October 2005
Playoff with AFC: November 2005

So, you can fit an octagonal into the international calendar as long as the prelims can begin a couple weeks earlier than Feb 28th.

And no, I don't think 20 matches in two years is too many. :) Hell, the 26 total matchdays in this format compares quite well with the current 24.

[SJJ]

Originally posted by photar74
I like an octagonal best, because I feel it will help to improve the quality of play in the region both in terms of depth and in terms of strength at the top. I believe that more meaningful matches for a larger amount of CONCACAF sides will help imrpove the quality of all CONCACAF sides.

I'm beginning to think that adding more matches will only add more bad matches. The current hexagonal is 30 matches. An octagonal would be 56 matches. Now, how many of those extra 26 matches would be any good? Not many. And how many of them would be "meaningful?" Again, not many, since you are adding a bunch of matches for 7th- and 8th- (and maybe even 6th-, even though we accept this for the hex) -place teams that have no real chance to get to the top four.

I'm also worried about how adding two more teams would skew the results of who qualifies. Say a top team plays a bottom team. ("A top team plays a bottom team." Sorry, had to say that.... some "Police Squad" episodes on the telly recently.) And say one of two things happens: (1) the good team demolishes the other team, (2) the bottom team somehow pulls out a dramatic draw.

In (1), the goals-differential tie-breaker now is skewed by the game involving the team that has no business being there. In (2), the result matters, of course, but now actual table standings are affected by the weakling.

If you want more "meaningful" matches for the lower teams, just make the Concacaf Gold Cup 12 confederation teams (no invitees) and all tournament sides get at least two games that "matter" (if Concacaf keeps those weird 3-team groups) or 3 games (if they go to 4-team groups). And most of them get at least one knock-out game anyway.

[SJJ]

Just wondering out loud, how many points would a team need to get the top 3 or 4 in an octagonal?

For reference, here are the point totals from the last two hex's:

1998: Mexico 18, United States 17, Jamaica 14, Costa Rica 12, El Salvador 10, Canada 6

2002: Costa Rica 23, Mexico 17, USA 17, Honduras 14, Jamaica 8, Trinidad-Tobago 5

So in 1998, the third team got 14 points (but you can say that they only needed 13, since the next team had 12). And in 2002, the third team had 17 points (but really only needed 15).

One thing to note: in 1998, no team won more than 4 games (there were 13 draws, which dragged down the pont totals), while in 2002, three teams won more than four (only six draws total).

So, again just wondering...any guesses on the number of points to get from 14 matches? And does anybody have ANY reference of an actual 8-team home-and-home round-robin, just so we can compare?

(Maybe it will depend on how many draws occur, but I think the lower teams will still be destroyed in the games. So let's guess on adding 10 points from the four extra games, onto the 2002 numbers, giving you somewhere around 25-27 points needed. And maybe 23-24 for the fourth team.)

[Sachin]

Originally posted by photar74
Semis: 16 teams, four groups of four, home-and-away league format. Top two in each group advance to octagonal. Matchdays: March 28th, April 1, June 6, June 13, June 20, June 24 (all 2004). Nine teams--Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, T & T, El Salvador, Canada and Guatemala--qualify for this round automatically.

Finals: Octagonal--home and away league, 14 matchdays. Schedule:

Matchdays 1 & 2: Early September 2004
Matchdays 3 & 4: Mid October 2004
Matchdays 5 & 6: Late March 2005
Marchadys 7-10: June 2005
Matchdays 11-12: Early September 2005
Matchdays 13-14: Mid October 2005
Playoff with AFC: November 2005

So, you can fit an octagonal into the international calendar as long as the prelims can begin a couple weeks earlier than Feb 28th.

And no, I don't think 20 matches in two years is too many. :) Hell, the 26 total matchdays in this format compares quite well with the current 24.

20 matchdays in two years is too many for the top sides. If you don't believe me, ask the CONEMBOL folks who are under severe pressure from Europe to change their 18 matchday qualifying format. Given the generally low regard most CONCACAF players have in Europe, it would be a disaster for most club careers.

Also, your schedule has 4 matchdays in 1 month -- June 2005.

Sachin

[Sachin]

Originally posted by SJJ

So, again just wondering...any guesses on the number of points to get from 14 matches? And does anybody have ANY reference of an actual 8-team home-and-home round-robin, just so we can compare?

(Maybe it will depend on how many draws occur, but I think the lower teams will still be destroyed in the games. So let's guess on adding 10 points from the four extra games, onto the 2002 numbers, giving you somewhere around 25-27 points needed. And maybe 23-24 for the fourth team.)

I took a quick scan around FIFA and it seems you need to average 1.5 points per game to qualify. That works out to 21 points for the final qualification (playoff, in this case) slot.

Sachin

[mikerunner]

35 teams in Concacaf to start with.Since most of
the weak teams in the region come from the
Carribbean area we should start by eliminating teams from that area.The top two Carr. nations
(Trinidad and Tobago+Jamiaca),the 8 central
American nations,and the United States,Mexico,
and Canada get byes.That leaves us with 22
carr. nations playing 11 home and aways.Teams
are seeded #1 to #22 based on fifa rankings.
#1 vs #22,#2 vs #21,etc...

24 teams are now left.

8 home and aways should be played in this
round.The six teams from the 2001 hexagonal+
the two highest ranked teams according to the
fifa rankings after those six get byes.teams seeded
1 to 16. #1 vs #16, #2 vs #15,etc...

16 teams are now left. 4 groups of 4.Each group
has a #1 seed,#2 seed,#3 seed,#4 seed.
#1 seed=ranked 1 to 4 in the region
#2 seed=ranked 5 to 8 in the region
#3 +#4 seeds are based on the previous rounds
play.i.e. goal differential. Could also use fifa
rankings for the #3+#4 seeds if that sits better
with people.
*The 4 group winners move on to the final round
*The top two runners up(pts. socered,goal dif.,etc.)move on to the final round.

*The bottom two runners up play a home and away
to determine the final team to make the final.

A septagonal is then played.The top 3 teams advance to the WC.The bottom three are eliminated.

4th place Concacaf vs 5th place Asia(home+away)

probable WC qualifers games played

United States+Mexico 6in semis,12(septagonal)=18
honduras or whoever finishes 4th
6 in semis,12 in septagonal,2 game playoff=20

Canada if they just barely qualified for septagonal,
but then played wonderfully and made Asia vs
Concacaf playoff=22

We shouldn't have any problem with international
match dates during the 1st round since we have
all the minnows playing.Cuba +Haiti+maybe 1 or
2 other countries aren't minnows everybody else
is.Even in the second round probably about a
1/3 to 1/2 of the teams would still be minnows.

[kasai]

COCACAF should try to make as large of a single grouping in the final round as possible. Many, including the US make good money in qualification matches and it would be nice to see a single grouping with 8 or 9 sides. CONCACAF does not have the same issues that South America does with so many of its top players in Europe. CONCACAF has a few good players in Europe, but for the most part the players are either in MLS or in MFL.

[SJJ]

Mikerunner's method takes an ungodly 28 matchdates to complete: 4 (first two rounds) + + 6 (four groups) + 2 (7-8 playoff) + 14 (septagonal) + 2 (Asia playoff). We should be thinking of eliminating matchdates where possible. [Note: a septagonal would still take 14 matchdates, even if every team only plays 12 matches.]

So, again, I think that with the Asia playoff, we could play the "semi-final" round as a home-and-home instead of groups, so it would take three rounds (6 matches) to get from 35 to 6, the hexagonal (10 matches) and the Asia playoff (2 matches) to get our qualifiers [18 matchdates total].

Or three rounds to get from 35 to 8 (6 matches), two groups of four (6 matchdates), the playoff with the second-place teams (2 matches), then the Aisa playoff (2 matches) to get the qualifiers [16 matchdates total].

The other option of this is to give the best second-place team the automatic qualifying bid, and have the other second-place team playoff with Asia. That would give you 14 matchdates total.

But I prefer the three-rounds-and-hex approach most.

[GIO17]

If CONCACAF Got 4 full spots, then I would agree with 8 Teams fighting for the top 4. But I like it the way it is currently with CONCACAF.

4th place will fight for the spot with an Asian team.