The importance of the game schedule in the first round

[midknight]

Everyone talks about the draw, especially when it comes to the World Cup, but no one ever talks about the game schedule. The FIFA u-17 World Cup made me think about this a bit. Brazil's 6-0 demolishing of Qatar was always possible, but do you think they'd have really gone out of their way to score more than 3 goals if they had met them in their first game?
Brazil knew that they could win 3-0 and still bow out of the tournament if Gambia lost 1-0 to the Netherlands, so they stepped up their attacking game.
If they had been in the same situation playing the Netherlands in the last game, it may have been more difficult for them.

In 2002 in group B, Paraguay went into their last game against slovenia (0 points, 0-4 goals) with 1 point and a goal differential of 3-5) Their opponent for the second spot was south africa (4 points GD 3-2) who were going to play spain. Of course Paraguay had to hope Spain beat South Africa but to be sure of keeping their hopes alive they absolutely had to beat Slovenia by at least 2 goals. They went on to win 3-1, and qualified, as south africa lost 2-3 to Spain.

The situation was similar in Brazil's group C, you may remember that Turkey (1 point 1-3) met up with group whipping boys China (0 points 0-6). At the same time, their direct rivals Costa Rica (4 points 3-1) came up against the group leaders Brazil. Turkey had to hope that Brazil beat Costa Rica but to keep their hopes alive, they had to beat China by at least 3 goals. They won 3-0 which would have qualified them even if Costa Rica had only lost 1-0 (they lost 2-5)

In Group E, Ireland (2 points 2-2) went into their last match against Saudi Arabia (0 points 0-9). Germany (4 points 9-1) and Cameroon (4 points 2-1) were going to duke it out in the other match. A win for either one of the heaivyweights would have put them through and the loser would go out in the event of a (likely) irish win. However a draw between the Germans and the Africans would most likely see the top 3 teams on 5 points. Germany's goal difference was realistically insurmountable; to be safe, Ireland needed to win by at least 2 goals. They beat Saudi Arabia 3-0. (The goal difference became a moot point because the Cameroonis lost)

Playing the weakest team in the last group game can come in pretty handy when you need to worry about goal difference, and can mean the difference between continuing and going home early...

Any thoughts? and can someone please confirm if the match schedule in the first round is done by hasard of if there is any seeding procedure involved?

[Ombak]

An excellent idea for a thread I think.

To be fair, although I agree with your premise, I think Costa Rica was pretty much out of the World Cup when they tied Turkey. They were never going to win against Brazil. Plus they did have a late chance to win their game against Turkey.

The draw for positions in the group is random. The seeds of course get position 1. But every other team that is drawn gets assigned position 2, 3 or 4 randomly.

[midknight]

I don't think anyone was ever expecting Costa Rica to beat Brazil. However, I think the mere fact that Turkey was playing China is what put them out.

Granted its hard to imagine Costa Rica playing a catenaccio type of football and losing 1-0 to Brazil but I think if they did open up the attack the way they did, its because they knew for a fact that Turkey was going to drown the Chinese and they figured that the best bet was to try and out brazil the brazilians or go down with all guns blazing (as they did)

In any case, this is not to say that there's any inevitability about this. In the same world cup, after losing to Mexico and outitalying italy Crotia needed to win to stand a chance of pipping either Italy or Mexico (or both). They would have considered themselves lucky to be up against the weakest team in the group so far - Ecuador (0 points 1-4). They lost and went crashing out and seeing that Italy could only draw mexico (on an 85th minute goal!), ended up
wasting a capital occasion to put italy on the list of surprising first round exits

[unclesox]

Would Scotland gone for more than two goals against Zaire in 1974 had they played them last instead of first? ;)

[midknight]

nah, this is Scotland we're talking about :D

In an effort to revive this thread that never ever really took off, anyone want to look at the merits of inversely playing the strongest team (or seed) in the last game?

[Sagy]

nah, this is Scotland we're talking about :D

In an effort to revive this thread that never ever really took off, anyone want to look at the merits of inversely playing the strongest team (or seed) in the last game?
Since you asked.

If the best team in the group has already clinched 1st place (e.g. Brazil 1998), playing them in the last game can be an advantage. It can be even a bigger advantage if the top team wants to finish 2nd in order to avoid a team that finished 2nd in the other group (e.g. 1974 Germany, 78 Argentina come to mind as 2nd place teams to avoid). In this case the top team might even give you the win.

I know that wasn't the case, but one could say that in 1982 Austria lost to Germany in the 3rd game not to help Germany as much as to help themselves :confused:.

I don't remember if the Spain game with Northern Ireland was before or after the Austria - Germany game. If it was, then Austria knew that the that the group winner will have to face England (Group D winner) and Spain (the host) in the second round. The second place team will have to face France (2nd in Group D) and Northern Ireland (Group F winners). On paper, Finishing 2nd in group B was better than finishing first.