WC seeding thread updated September 14, 2005

[eldiablito]

Nice of everyone to let me wake up and post this. :)

Sagy's table is correct on the other thread. I tried posting it here to no effect so here goes.

63.67 Brazil
48.83 Spain
47.67 Mexico
47.50 Germany
46.67 Argentina
45.50 Italy
45.33 England
44.33 France
__________________
43.00 Netherlands
41.67 USA

Teams in bold have already qualified.

Turkey and Sweden follow but are well behind USA and have no realistic shot at a seed. Even USA's outside chance is becoming less likely.

[eldiablito]

Why is this list different than FIFA's coke rankings?
Because Fifa's coke rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula.

What is the seeding formula used for?
The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage.

What is the seeding formula exactly?
The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 3 world cups and the FIFA coca-cola rankings of the last three years.

Specifically: [1(wc94) + 2(wc98) + 3(wc02)]/6 = Part A
(FIFA ranking 12/03 + FIFA ranking 12/04 + FIFA ranking 11/05)/3 = Part B
Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

How is the world cup performance determined?
0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year.
8 points are awarded if the country finished last in their group.
9 points are awarded if the country finished 3rd in their group.
All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points.

How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded?
Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point.

Why don't you show all 32 teams seeding formula results?
Primarily, because I don't want to accidentally misinform. Only the top 8 teams receive seeds. Teams 9-16 are not placed in a second tier--so really it's irrelevent to show all teams' seedings results. However, if you ask for it, I will show it.

How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula?
I pick the 32 countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation as much as is possible. For example, the best 14 European teams by FIFA ranking as long as there are at least one team from each Euro qualifying group and no more than two from each qualifying group.

This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind.

Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula?
No. However, the last world cup this was the specific formula used. World cups '98 and '94 used a formula extremely similar--possibly identical, but the details of those formulas were never spelled out as specifically as the one used in '02. It is possible that FIFA could change the formula or alter it, but because the last three world cups used this formula, it is a good projection of which teams will be seeded.

Why do you do a monthly mock draw?
Only to encourage the excitement/anticipation of the world cup.

Why do I see Country X in your mock draw when Country X probably won't qualify?
Because Country X is ranked higher and has yet to be eliminated from qualifying.

Why don't I see Country Y in your mock draw when Country Y will probably qualify?
Because Country Y is not ranked high enough and has not yet qualified--once either of those happens, you will see Country Y in the mock draw.

How is the mock draw determined?
I use the same pots that were used in the last 2 world cups.
Pot A has seeded teams.
Pot B has European teams.
Pot C has non-seeded Concacaf and African teams.
Pot D has non-seeded South American, Asian and Oceania teams
The leftover Euro team is placed in either Pot C or D depending on which Pot needs another team.

It is possible that FIFA will change the Pots this year, but until they announce that, I will conduct the mock draws using '02's model.

[Craig P]

I'd guess that will pretty much cement the order of the interesting part of the top 10, no? It looks like the Netherlands needs one hiccup and we need two.

[SoulflyTribeFC]

I'd guess that will pretty much cement the order of the interesting part of the top 10, no? It looks like the Netherlands needs one hiccup and we need two.

In other words, Spain and France must crap out for us to get a seed. Is this likely? Maybe. Will it happen? probably not, although with Henry and Zidane out for France, who knows? What would be nice is if France finishes third and then Spain and England draw each other in the playoff. Then we'd be set.

[tab5g]

In other words, Spain and France must crap out for us to get a seed. Is this likely? Maybe. Will it happen? probably not, although with Henry and Zidane out for France, who knows? What would be nice is if France finishes third and then Spain and England draw each other in the playoff. Then we'd be set.

If England wins on 10/8 home to Austria and on 10/12 home to Poland, they win the group and have qualified.

[SoulflyTribeFC]

If England wins on 10/8 home to Austria and on 10/12 home to Poland, they win the group and have qualified.

Yeah, I know but I'm hoping they don't win both games and are drawn into a playoff to better the US' chances of gaining a seed.

If France wins out, they will win the group too so then it wouldn't matter. Spain is the only team of those three that doesn't control its own destiny.

[spoonman]

England, spain and France belong at the worldcup. Is a seed so important that you hope those countries are kicked out?

England, Spain and France have the best players in the world, if two of those don't show the worldcup is less interesting.

[SoulflyTribeFC]

England, spain and France belong at the worldcup. Is a seed so important that you hope those countries are kicked out?

Yup. :D

Dude, they'll probably be in. England will probably win out.

I'm just hoping for the best draw possible for my team. It's not like by me hoping they don't get in means they won't get in.

Oh, and I hope Spain doesn't get in because I don't like Spain very much and they are freaking choke artists so f em.

England, Spain and France have the best players in the world, if two of those don't show the worldcup is less interesting.

Netherlands wasn't in 02, England and France weren't in 94 and those World Cups were enjoyable.

Besides, France was in 02 and didn't score a frickin goal. They weren't an interesting team at all.

[spoonman]

Netherlands wasn't in 02, England and France weren't in 94 and those World Cups were enjoyable.

Besides, France was in 02 and didn't score a frickin goal. They weren't an interesting team at all.

I'm dutch so i didn't like 2002 worldcup at all. :mad:

But i want to see the best players at the worldcup. Some of the countries i love to see crash out in the first round do have good teams.
Its difference of opinion.

[Lillywhite]

This will be the first WC where England are seeded I think. That is if we qualify. :o

[SoulflyTribeFC]

This will be the first WC where England are seeded I think. That is if we qualify. :o

They weren't seeded in 1990? Who was their group?

Who was seeded from their group in 98? Romania?

[Lillywhite]

They weren't seeded in 1990? Who was their group?

Who was seeded from their group in 98? Romania?

I'm not sure. I think the first time we'd have been eligable for a seeding place was '94 and we all know what happened there. :rolleyes: Ever since we haven't had enough points due to that failure to qualify until the upcoming WC. Romania were the seeds in our group in '98, you are right.

The seedings only came in in '90 didn't they?

[SoulflyTribeFC]

I'm not sure. I think the first time we'd have been eligable for a seeding place was '94 and we all know what happened there. :rolleyes: Ever since we haven't had enough points due to that failure to qualify until the upcoming WC. Romania were the seeds in our group in '98, you are right.

The seedings only came in in '90 didn't they?

Good question. I suppose so, but how did they select the groups before?

[Lillywhite]

Good question. I suppose so, but how did they select the groups before?

LOL. No idea. I think they just lumped the confederations in different pots and drew them out. There were some tough groups back then.

[ExpatSwede]

Although they also had less teams (24 in '94), which made it possible for some of the best 3rd place teams to advance to the round of 16.

[Lillywhite]

Although they also had less teams (24 in '94), which made it possible for some of the best 3rd place teams to advance to the round of 16.

Of course they did. I completely forgot that.

[M]

I'm not sure. I think the first time we'd have been eligable for a seeding place was '94 and we all know what happened there. :rolleyes: Ever since we haven't had enough points due to that failure to qualify until the upcoming WC. Romania were the seeds in our group in '98, you are right.

The seedings only came in in '90 didn't they?

England were seeded in '90, in controversial fashion: the rumour was that FIFA seeded them so that then notorious fans could be assigned to the island of Sardinia.

[Lillywhite]

England were seeded in '90, in controversial fashion: the rumour was that FIFA seeded them so that then notorious fans could be assigned to the island of Sardinia.

Holy God. I'm becoming, oh what's the word....senile. :D

[California Jack]

England, spain and France belong at the worldcup. Is a seed so important that you hope those countries are kicked out?

England, Spain and France have the best players in the world, if two of those don't show the worldcup is less interesting.

Sides that qualify belong at the World Cup. Sides that do not qualify do not.

I've seen France and Spain in enough World Cups. I want to see Israel or Ireland, and Serbia this time.

[MassachusettsRef]

They weren't seeded in 1990? Who was their group?They were, and as was pointed out, they were controversially placed in Group F, which made sure they and their fans stayed on Sardinia through the first stage. They were in a group with Netherlands, Ireland and Egypt. Every game in that group ended up in a tie, except the England/Egypt match, which England won 1-0. Within minutes of each other, England scored a go-ahead goal and the Irish scored a tying goal. Knowing that the English result guaranteed that they'd both go through, the Dutch and Irish basically had a kickabout for the final 20 minutes and ended up tied for second place. Lots needed to be drawn to determine placement in the knockout stages. `q`q`Ireland "won" second and drew Romania in the second round. The Dutch finished third officially and ended up playing Germany in the 2nd round; in a game that many thought before the tournament might be the final. It was also a game that gave us the infamous Voller/Rijkaard incident.

Overall, Group F is one of those most interesting ever (along with Group E in 1994) as if Egypt had scored a goal in the England game, all 4 teams would have been tied for first and last place.

Who was seeded from their group in 98? Romania?Yes, Romania was. England was the 9th ranked team, so again there were some conspiracy theorists who argued that Romania and England were intentionally placed together to placate the English who thought they rightfully deserved the 8th seed.