How far will the US advance in WC2006?

[Ed-D]

I probably haven't explained myself properly, (although I think I did, but there we are). I'm not talking about the coaches of the national sides. I'm talking about coaching standards per se.

ok and how, if at all, do we quantify those? I still think we don't have enough to identify any kind of trend. Yes, African teams are, on balance, advancing further. But couldn't this be due to the increased number of African teams allowed into the tournament? As for the increased number of Americans, Africans, Asians and others playing for European clubs; well how do we know that is truly due to their increase in skill vis-a-vis the European (and South American) nationals? Isn't it more likely that looser rules on the number of foreign players allowed per club, together with the Bosman issue (and globalization as a whole), have allowed teams to employ more international players? Remember that as recently as the early 90s, most European leagues didn't allow more than 2-3 foreigners per team (not just non-Europeans--not foreigners period).

[Stan Collins]

But again, you shouldn't need to worry about discounting results except where teams are sending less than full strength teams. But I'm not sure how you'd do that uniformly (I mean, you could have a formula where you discount a win over Brazil based on how many of their players had played 50% of matches with the full team over the last 2 years, but it would get complicated quickly). This is not a confederation-specific problem. Unfortunately, there is a sample size problem with inter-confed matchups versus intra-confed, so FIFA feels the need for a conversion ratio to factor out the benefit smaller confeds would otherwise derive from playing disproportionately their own members.

3.5 Regional strength factors

It is accepted that there are differences in strength between the various continents. To take these into account in an objective manner, weighting factors are worked out each year for each of the confederations. The basis of evaluation for each continent is the performance of its teams in direct intercontinental encounters. At the end of every year a continental ranking list is calculated, based on the same criteria as used for the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.

Taken into consideration are not all the intercontinental matches played by teams from a given continent, but only the direct confrontations between the strongest teams from each continent. Specifically this means that what is included are matches between the best 25 per cent of the teams from a given continent (with a minimum of 5 teams being considered). This way the danger is averted of errors possibly being introduced by considering matches between strong teams of a weak confederation against weak teams of a strong one.

The weightings are applied in the form of multiplication factors for teams from the same continent (see below). If teams from two different confederations are involved then the factor applied is the average of the two continental weightings.

For 2005, the following weighting factors will apply:

UEFA x 1.00
CONMEBOL x 0.99
CAF x 0.96
CONCACAF x 0.94
AFC x 0.93
OFC x 0.93

[christopher d]

Out in the first round. This isn't our year, folks...

1. It's in Europe. We suck in Europe, plain and simple.
2. It's our turn to get a "group of death" draw

[kpaulson]

I'm afraid I don't follow. By "smaller" confed, do you mean CONMEBOL?

Again, FIFA's idea that "It is accepted that there are differences in strength between the various continents" is true, but shouldn't the ranking themselves reflect those differences? Apologies if I'm being thick here, but CONCACAF's weakness should already be apparent when you play Panama as the 83rd ranked team. I don't get why a further discount should be applied just because it is also in North America.

[Andy Bennett]

ok and how, if at all, do we quantify those? I still think we don't have enough to identify any kind of trend. Yes, African teams are, on balance, advancing further. But couldn't this be due to the increased number of African teams allowed into the tournament? As for the increased number of Americans, Africans, Asians and others playing for European clubs; well how do we know that is truly due to their increase in skill vis-a-vis the European (and South American) nationals? Isn't it more likely that looser rules on the number of foreign players allowed per club, together with the Bosman issue (and globalization as a whole), have allowed teams to employ more international players? Remember that as recently as the early 90s, most European leagues didn't allow more than 2-3 foreigners per team (not just non-Europeans--not foreigners period).
Er, you seem to be concentrating on African football and WC's for some reason.

Look, it's not complicated, dude. All I'm saying is that coaching standards have risen throughout the world. FIFA's a bunch of cretins, IMO, but one thing they HAVE done is helped in the development of standardised coaching awards so that people throughout the world have SOME idea if a coach actually knows anything about the game.

Over a period this, and the fact that more and more players are playing in the larger football nations with other good players, will mean that the so called 'smaller' nations, (in football terms, that includes the USA), will become more competitive.

Now, whether that translates into the US doing well in Germany, who can say... with the notable exception of blind_clown, of course ;)

[ilovesoccer77]

they might go far.... but i hope they win! lol

[GolazoSr]

Quarters!

[EEUU]

This team will be deeper and more talented than the one we fielded last time out... That being said, there are no guarantees that we will even get out of the first round. 2 evenly matched teams and results can go either way.

Just for fun though, I voted semis- Make the semis and you get to play as many matches as the finalists w/ the 3rd place match. That would be AMAZING for US Soccer, as was the quarters last time around.

-Arthur

[Arsenalguy]

European hegemony in soccer is a relic of the past. Look at all of the African, Asian and American (north and south) players taking top spots on European club rosters these days. Last WC not an "anomaly", but simply evidence of increasing parity worldwide...leading to increasing "any given Sunday" factor in international soccer.

USA could sneak into the semis, but likely won't get past quarters. But who knows...injuries could make a big impact one way or the other...either depleting the team's depth, negating a key star player, or opening the door for a surprise newcomer to shine. ABC/ESPN is wisely televising all 64 games LIVE this time around, and in HD, so let's just let 'em play and see what shakes out.

[Auxodium]

i reckon they will be grouped in a 'group of death' aka England, Nigeria, Argies & Sweden in 2002.

and be knocked out in the first stage, however i think that a final 16 is good enough.

[barkerjb]

At this point it will likely come down to who we play in group play. The way I see it, most team are going to be preparing for their game against us. A good coach will be able to exploit us. Part of our success in 02 was the fact that hardly any of our opponents took advantage of our weaknesses, they did not prepare. You can bet that any Euro team we face is going to be 100% ready for their match against us. I see us advancing out of group play, but losing to a Euro side in the second round. If by chance we don't get a European team, then quarterfinals will be our last match.

[Auxodium]

true, they have sussed you out now and if you can't put Panama away in regular time then the US team need to work harder come Germany 2006.

[andythemick]

Honestly, its a crap shoot. Unless you are Brazil, you never know if you can/will get out of your group stage (see:France, Argentina circa 2002). You could get put in the group of death, or you could see Norway, Spain and Saudi Arabia. Once into the knockout rounds, its anybody's tournament really. I know that people will scoff, but Germany in 2002 technically speaking had no right to advance as far as they did, and neither did South Korea (who were greatly helped by both being hosts and a string of *ahem* questionable calls).

So, basically, I think that the US can advance to the semis no problem (they were a disallowed goal and a couple of missed Donovan sitters away last time around), but they could very well be out after two games. You just never know. And thats not a cop-out. As usual, I have no point.

[Jegao Paraiba]

This can't be repeated enough. Who on our team could start for England? Nobody. Yet we are ranked higher. It's absurd. Plus, we never do well in Europe, so we'll be lucky to get to the second round.
"This can't be repeated enough...."
I beg to differ.
It can, and it has.

[Jegao Paraiba]

I will say this Mexico will make it farther than the usa now i'm not trying to be biased in any way it's just that usa has never bothered to play any real international experience other than Mexico, look how much Mexicos experience have taken them pretty far use the confederations cup as an example!
As long as someone else does the 'dirty work' of beating the USA before they run into the Mexicans, it's a possibility.
Not bisaed?
Mexico hasn't scored on the US outside of Azteca in like a million years.
Did something happen to move the WC to Mexico while i was sleeping?

[kpaulson]

true, they have sussed you out now and if you can't put Panama away in regular time then the US team need to work harder come Germany 2006.
Agreed on teams being ready for the US, but as forthe US needing to "work harder", well every team out there would need to work harder than they do in their matches against minnows... (Lithuania 0-0 Spain; France 0-0 Israel; Azerbaijan 0-1 England; Moldova 0-1 Italy; Albania 2-1 Greece; Turkey 1-1 Georgia).

Honestly, I wouldn't make too much of the Panama result.

[20oth]

Are Convey and Albright some of the best in the U.S. DC United improved dramatically when those guys left, the National team would also. Johnson will help when he comes back.

[thedeuce_2]

I voted quarters. I don't think there's any nation we CAN'T beat at this point. Now, that's obviously different from actually doing it. Group play shouldn't be a major obstacle unless we are stuck with a couple strong European nations. In the end I think playing in Germany will be our downfall.

[Toyindeen]

My Friend Remember This Is Not A War Of Terrorism So How Do U Expect Us To Go Far? No Way...

[loki77]

A lot will depend on the draw, but the US has the potential to reach the quarters. They need to get over their fear of European soil and win some games.