How far will the US advance in WC2006?

[Andy Bennett]

I love how every one says the US can't beat Brazil, Italy, England, etc. Well freakin a, you gotta start some time, don't ya?? What if 2002 was the turn of the tables for us? Why do we have to be written off all the time? Seriously. Maybe if Italy, France, and Argentina didn't have such cocky attitudes about how godly they are, maybe they would have done a tad bit better. Don't give me any of that South Korea rigged crap either. I rooted for my Italian heritage, and they deserved to lose after playing the way they did.
Dude, (to use an American expression to show I'm not biased ;) - it's not about bragging; it's not about 'heritage' or whatever people want to call it; it's not about the money or being 'BIG', (whatever TF that means), teams...

It's about THE GAME. It's about those 11 players v 11 players on the pitch. THAT'S all that matters.

US has some good players in some good teams but, in all honesty, they don't have the number of successful players in the number of successful teams that other coutries have.

If you look at, (in no particular order), Italy, Spain, Germany, England, Argentina, Brazil, Holland, France and the others you'll find their players playing in some of the best leagues in the world and, (and this is the important thing), WINNING GAMES.

THAT is what matters. Nothing else.

Like I said, the US has some good players like Beasley who has recently become a regular for PSV but teams from the Dutch league haven't won many CL finals, have they. Sorry - but they haven't. Guys like Reyna have played for quite a few clubs in Europe but he's at ManCity now and, let's be honest, MAnCity are not expected to win the EPL this year, are they. You can go through the team and see how they play for and figure it out yourself if you want.

Now, personally I think that the US side will prove to be greater than the sum of it's parts because they stick together, are well organised and everyone works for everyone else. Personally, I think they'll do well.

Strangely enough they're sort of the 'anti-Holland' in that respect. The Dutch have a record of squabbling among themselves and being LESSS than the sum of their parts because of it.

You have to view things like the WC in a sort statistical way. So, the USA has, say a 40/60 chance of beating, say, England. Against Brazil let's say it's 35/65. If you add up all the percentages you'll get the likelihood of any one team winning the WC. Now, obviously, any team can beat any team on the day but the chances of the USA winning the WC are considerably smaller than Brazil. That's just the way it is.

If you remember the US roadshow DID go belly up during the last WC but it was against Poland and they'd already qualified for the next round IIRC. The chances of that happening in an important game are just as great as it happening against Poland.

[vilafria]

If you remember the US roadshow DID go belly up during the last WC but it was against Poland and they'd already qualified for the next round IIRC. The chances of that happening in an important game are just as great as it happening against Poland.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here , the US lost to Poland but advanced because S.Korea beat Portugal, w/ the help of the ref ,of course.

[Andy Bennett]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here , the US lost to Poland but advanced because S.Korea beat Portugal, w/ the help of the ref ,of course.
Well, I actually said I couldn't quite remember, didn't I...

'If you remember the US roadshow DID go belly up during the last WC but it was against Poland and they'd already qualified for the next round IIRC'.

In any case that reinforces my point, doesn't it. If S.Korea hadn't beaten Portugal, (ref's decisions being another matter), then you WOULDN'T have gone any further, would you... and this talk from some people that 'we got to the last eight so therefore we should do 'x' or 'y'' would have been, 'we didn't make it out of the group'.

As I said, there's a large element odf luck in winning something like a WC but the better teams require less of it than others.

'My case rests, m'lud' ;)

[t.z0n3]

*BANGBANG with hammer*
Case dismissed. :cool:

I have to agree Bennet. We aren't nearly as good as we play ourselves off to be. Another example is this year's prelims.
Although they aren't exactly minnows (definately not anymore) we only managed to get TNT by 1 goal each time. And then, even if it was with a mainly MLS team, we lost to Costa RIca 3-0. That just SUCKS. :(

But yeah, for the simple reason that I'm an American, I must say I think we'll do well this year. This is one of our best teams ever, anyway. I would be extremely dissappointed if we went out anywhere outside of the quater finals.

[Scarecrow]

Well, I actually said I couldn't quite remember, didn't I...

'If you remember the US roadshow DID go belly up during the last WC but it was against Poland and they'd already qualified for the next round IIRC'.

In any case that reinforces my point, doesn't it. If S.Korea hadn't beaten Portugal, (ref's decisions being another matter), then you WOULDN'T have gone any further, would you... and this talk from some people that 'we got to the last eight so therefore we should do 'x' or 'y'' would have been, 'we didn't make it out of the group'.

As I said, there's a large element odf luck in winning something like a WC but the better teams require less of it than others.

'My case rests, m'lud' ;)


Reading your post reminded me of this:
"Sometimes it is better to be lucky then good"

Which is true to a degree. Some would say that luck is derived from positioning yourself so that you can take advantage of it.

As for the US, they will require a bit of luck to go through, but they will also have to play up to their highest level. I don't think the US will or should surprise anyone they play in Germany.

[t.z0n3]

Well, that's KIND OF how I feel...
We'll need some luck, yes, but... I kind of feel like we can surprise some people. Mainly because... I mean, think about it this way:

A lot of our players DON'T play in Europe, and people who play each other there WON'T know how to react to what we do. I consider that a plus.

That's just my outlook on things.

[Predator67]

I think they can get to the semi finals as long as Reyna stays healthy. They are very fast up front and could strike at anytime.

[ElDivino]

Well, that's KIND OF how I feel...
We'll need some luck, yes, but... I kind of feel like we can surprise some people. Mainly because... I mean, think about it this way:

A lot of our players DON'T play in Europe, and people who play each other there WON'T know how to react to what we do. I consider that a plus.

That's just my outlook on things.
The same can be said about Mexico,Costa Rica,and Trinidad and Tobago..alot of their players dont play in Europe either..so i guess they can also consider it a plus....right ?

[kpaulson]

The same can be said about Mexico,Costa Rica,and Trinidad and Tobago..alot of their players dont play in Europe either..so i guess they can also consider it a plus....right ?
Actually... yes.

Especially Mexico because the domestic league is relatively strong. To the extent other teams can't scout you, you have an advantage.

[simonb_nyc]

Actually... yes.

Especially Mexico because the domestic league is relatively strong. To the extent other teams can't scout you, you have an advantage.

Not having any European experience is going to be Mexico's Achilles Heel. The US has a hard time playing away in Europe and they have much more familiarity with European play than Mexico.

[simonb_nyc]

Actually... yes.

Especially Mexico because the domestic league is relatively strong. To the extent other teams can't scout you, you have an advantage.

Actually that's a pretty good point. There are English scouts all over the US checking out MLS players (as well as college). European teams (particularly English) are very familiar with the US. Mexican league play is unknown to Europeans. That could work for them although any coach worth his salt will be looking at lots videos of ANY teams they come up against.

[kpaulson]

Actually that's a pretty good point. There are English scouts all over the US checking out MLS players (as well as college). European teams (particularly English) are very familiar with the US. Mexican league play is unknown to Europeans. That could work for them although any coach worth his salt will be looking at lots videos of ANY teams they come up against.
I think you're right-- it cuts both ways. The obvious benefits of having European players is that they tend to be better players and get more exposure to a wide variety of playing styles.

But there's something to be said for having your domestic players know and play with each other and also be able to sneak up on people. Europeans know that the Mexicans will be decent-- but, at least the fans, have no idea why. It's even true with us to a lesser extent. Like you say, the US is becoming pretty well scouted, judging by the steady stream of youth players to Europe-- but I note that many MLS/youth international players that get shots in Europe do so after a tournament or international friendly-- European scouts are still a little limited.

[vilafria]

Now that the US is in the group of death , if they get on to the next level I expect final or semis. What doesn't kill ya, makes you that much stronger :)

[vilafria]

Funny poll results 25% voted each category basically.

[vilafria]

Funny poll results 25% voted each category basically.
First round out 299 22.75%
Round of 16 371 28.23%
Quarters 326 24.81%
Semis 318 24.20%

[vilafria]

After watching the game vs Norway, I'm even more encouraged that USMNT will do better than WC02.

[simonb_nyc]

After watching the game vs Norway, I'm even more encouraged that USMNT will do better than WC02.

And they just beat Japan. They'll certainly get out of the group stage but then they'll have Brazil. I doubt if they'll make the quarters this time. You never know though as it's a funny old game where anything can happen.

[JugglinNCWest7]

This can't be repeated enough. Who on our team could start for England? Nobody. Yet we are ranked higher. It's absurd. Plus, we never do well in Europe, so we'll be lucky to get to the second round.

Soccer is not an individual sport... it is a team sport. While I think two of the US NT players could start for England (I won't say who unless asked nicely), Arena coaches the US team well enough that they can basically beat anyone but Brazil, England this year, and Argentina. I say we'll get 4th place b/c those 3 teams will be the other semifinalists.

[JugglinNCWest7]

The FIFA rankings are really not taken seriously by anybody other than (perhaps) FIFA themselves (although frankly I'd be surprised even there). We all know the U.S. has made great strides, but SIXTH in the world? Ahead of France, England, Spain, Germany, Turkey, Italy? Come on.

I think the last world cup was an anomaly and "order" will be restored. The U.S. is still good enough to make the second round, possibly even the quarters but I just don't see the semifinals as a possibility...yet. Then again, I've been proven wrong before...

Yeah... an anomaly that will be fixed b/c the US NT is much better this year than in 2002? We have a stronger group of defensemen.. the same group of more experienced midfielders and the same striker with possibly the best player on the team having been added in the past few years (Eddie Johnson). While they shouldn't be ahead of England all the other teams that you mentioned are overrated and are getting old (except for Spain which always underachieves anyway so it doesn't really matter). Considering the US will play either eitehr Switzerland, France, Ukraine, or Korea in the quarters I think it is entirely possible that they can advance to the semis (where they will lose to Argentina or England).

[gfranc79]

My heart says they will win it all... but Id be happy with semis too...at least it will show they are improving.