Justin O
08 Nov 2002, 06:10 PM
Cut and pasted (more or less) from something I wrote at another site.
Saturday Kaiserslautern - Hannover 96 (+0.5)
Pick: 2 @ 2.16 (Canbet) for 5 units
Though coming off a midweek 2-1 cup loss away to Bayern, Hannover have been decent of late in the Bundesliga, posting a 3-1 win last weekend over Wolfsburg and before that consecutive draws away to Bayern (3-3) and at home to Bremen (4-4). In their last 3 away matches in the league they’ve accumulated a very respectable 7 points, all coming against opponents playing better than Kaiserslautern. Kaiserslautern meanwhile, have only managed a win vs. woeful Cottbus in four home league matches this year. Canbet offer a tempting 4.80 for Hannover to win, but I’m going to stick with the nicely priced handicap as a draw is certainly possible here.
Saturday Boavista - Moreirense
Pick: 2 @8.75 for 2 units (Gamebookers)
I’m putting a couple units on the long shot here. Though Boavista and Moreirense are eleventh and eighteenth (last) respectively in Portugal, they are only separated by 4 points. Their goal differentials are a pretty similar -2 (Boavista) and -5 (Moreirense). Moreirense are playing a bit better of late. After losing their first 4 matches they’ve bounced back to take 7 points from their last 5. Boavista’s mediocre season has continued over their last 3 league matches, from which they’ve collected only 1 point. They also have European concerns. After a less than impressive 2-1 victory over Anorthorsis of Cyprus in the UEFA Cup, they face a midweek trip to the Mediterranean island that will not be a mere vacation. The most glaring factor against Moreirense in this match is the fact that they haven’t gotten a point in 4 away matches this year. However, despite those losses, only Sporting have had a truly easy time with them. Their poor performances away aren’t enough to dissuade me from taking a chance on these high odds. The gap between Moreirense and Boavista thus far this season has certainly not been wide enough to justify 8.75 in my opinion and definitely warrants a couple of units.
Saturday Olomouc - Sparta Prague
Pick: 2 @1.70 for 6 units (Worldbet)
You have probably read about this match. Sigma Olomouc’s players are paying for their fans’ tickets as a way of “apologizing” for their dreadful play, which has seen them take one point and score one goal in their last four matches and fall to 13th place from 16 teams in the league. Will that gesture and what will surely be (for a change) a large crowd propel them past league leaders Sparta Prague? Sparta have been dominant in the league thus far, only dropping points in 3 draws from their 12 matches. They’ve outscored their opponents by a phenomenal 22-3 margin thus far and haven’t given up a goal in any competition since 14 September, when they drew at home to Chmel Blsany 1-1. Of course none of that answers my question. What effect will the free tickets have? Well, it’s unprecedented so I guess no one knows. I still say Sparta won’t drop any points against Olomouc. However, I’m going to keep my stake somewhat more modest than I would in normal circumstances. If nothing else, this is a match that is certain to generate a lot of interest from around the football world.
Sunday Genclerbirligi (-1) - Altay
Pick: 1 @2.20 for 7 units (interwetten)
Altay are going through a major financial crisis and are in complete disarray. They are the weakest team in Turkey right now. Genclerbirligi are a clear favorite and I'll take a (0:1) handicap to juice up the winnings. Over their last 5 matches Altay have been outscored 17-2, while on the season Genclerbirligi have outscored their opponents 23-14. A bit of a concern is the fact that Genclerbirligi earned their high position in the table largely due to their excellent performance early in the season, rather than over their more recent matches. However, they seem to be in good form now, and their opponent could hardly be in worse form. Also encouraging as far as the (0:1) handicap is concerned; Genclerbirligi’s 4 home wins this year have all been by more than 1 goal. Back when I bet the Turkish League more often this was a club that always did well for me. I look for that to continue here.
Saturday Kaiserslautern - Hannover 96 (+0.5)
Pick: 2 @ 2.16 (Canbet) for 5 units
Though coming off a midweek 2-1 cup loss away to Bayern, Hannover have been decent of late in the Bundesliga, posting a 3-1 win last weekend over Wolfsburg and before that consecutive draws away to Bayern (3-3) and at home to Bremen (4-4). In their last 3 away matches in the league they’ve accumulated a very respectable 7 points, all coming against opponents playing better than Kaiserslautern. Kaiserslautern meanwhile, have only managed a win vs. woeful Cottbus in four home league matches this year. Canbet offer a tempting 4.80 for Hannover to win, but I’m going to stick with the nicely priced handicap as a draw is certainly possible here.
Saturday Boavista - Moreirense
Pick: 2 @8.75 for 2 units (Gamebookers)
I’m putting a couple units on the long shot here. Though Boavista and Moreirense are eleventh and eighteenth (last) respectively in Portugal, they are only separated by 4 points. Their goal differentials are a pretty similar -2 (Boavista) and -5 (Moreirense). Moreirense are playing a bit better of late. After losing their first 4 matches they’ve bounced back to take 7 points from their last 5. Boavista’s mediocre season has continued over their last 3 league matches, from which they’ve collected only 1 point. They also have European concerns. After a less than impressive 2-1 victory over Anorthorsis of Cyprus in the UEFA Cup, they face a midweek trip to the Mediterranean island that will not be a mere vacation. The most glaring factor against Moreirense in this match is the fact that they haven’t gotten a point in 4 away matches this year. However, despite those losses, only Sporting have had a truly easy time with them. Their poor performances away aren’t enough to dissuade me from taking a chance on these high odds. The gap between Moreirense and Boavista thus far this season has certainly not been wide enough to justify 8.75 in my opinion and definitely warrants a couple of units.
Saturday Olomouc - Sparta Prague
Pick: 2 @1.70 for 6 units (Worldbet)
You have probably read about this match. Sigma Olomouc’s players are paying for their fans’ tickets as a way of “apologizing” for their dreadful play, which has seen them take one point and score one goal in their last four matches and fall to 13th place from 16 teams in the league. Will that gesture and what will surely be (for a change) a large crowd propel them past league leaders Sparta Prague? Sparta have been dominant in the league thus far, only dropping points in 3 draws from their 12 matches. They’ve outscored their opponents by a phenomenal 22-3 margin thus far and haven’t given up a goal in any competition since 14 September, when they drew at home to Chmel Blsany 1-1. Of course none of that answers my question. What effect will the free tickets have? Well, it’s unprecedented so I guess no one knows. I still say Sparta won’t drop any points against Olomouc. However, I’m going to keep my stake somewhat more modest than I would in normal circumstances. If nothing else, this is a match that is certain to generate a lot of interest from around the football world.
Sunday Genclerbirligi (-1) - Altay
Pick: 1 @2.20 for 7 units (interwetten)
Altay are going through a major financial crisis and are in complete disarray. They are the weakest team in Turkey right now. Genclerbirligi are a clear favorite and I'll take a (0:1) handicap to juice up the winnings. Over their last 5 matches Altay have been outscored 17-2, while on the season Genclerbirligi have outscored their opponents 23-14. A bit of a concern is the fact that Genclerbirligi earned their high position in the table largely due to their excellent performance early in the season, rather than over their more recent matches. However, they seem to be in good form now, and their opponent could hardly be in worse form. Also encouraging as far as the (0:1) handicap is concerned; Genclerbirligi’s 4 home wins this year have all been by more than 1 goal. Back when I bet the Turkish League more often this was a club that always did well for me. I look for that to continue here.