Serie Zed
25 Jul 2005, 11:29 AM
Last year I took a look at MLS Cup winners and noticed a couple trends.
First, no team that finished bottom four in either Goals For or Goal Against in a season had won the Cup that year.
Second, every team that won the Cup finished top two in EITHER Goals For or Goals Allowed. No team has ever finished top two in both offense and defense.
In other words, the formula in the first nine years of MLS has been to excel on either offense or defense and finish mid-pack on the other side of the ball. That makes sense -- given the SEM and limited budgets it's very hard to build a complete team.
These findings are obviously not written in stone, but I thought they were interesting and decided to take a look at what they might say about the current season...
Offense Goals/Game:
New England 1.78
Dallas 1.78
Chicago 1.67
Kansas City 1.55 (tell the truth, who would have guessed they were 4th?)
San Jose 1.50
Metros 1.47
DC 1.42
Los Angeles 1.26
Colorado 1.20
Chivas 1.05
Salt Lake .95
Columbus .89
Defense Goals/Game:
New England 1.00
DC 1.11
San Jose 1.15
Los Angeles 1.16
Dallas 1.22
Metros 1.26
KC 1.30
Colorado 1.35
Columbus 1.47
Chicago 1.48
Salt Lake 1.84
Chivas 2.10
Chivas, Salt Lake City and Columbus are bottom four on BOTH sides of the ball. It's not exactly rocket science to rule them out even without looking at it this way, but they're done.
Additionally, Colorado (offense) and Chicago (defense) are currently in the bottom four on one side of the ball. If that holds, history suggests they will not lift the Cup.
The only three teams that are currently in the top two on either side of the ball are New England (#1 on offense AND defense), Dallas (#2 offense) and DC (#2 defense).
Given that no one has managed to do what New England is doing this year (not just top two on offense and defense, but #1), they're hot favorites to win the title.
But United has really done a great job of keeping the D tight despite the departure of some big names, and it's not inconceivable, based on history, that it could carry them to title number five.
First, no team that finished bottom four in either Goals For or Goal Against in a season had won the Cup that year.
Second, every team that won the Cup finished top two in EITHER Goals For or Goals Allowed. No team has ever finished top two in both offense and defense.
In other words, the formula in the first nine years of MLS has been to excel on either offense or defense and finish mid-pack on the other side of the ball. That makes sense -- given the SEM and limited budgets it's very hard to build a complete team.
These findings are obviously not written in stone, but I thought they were interesting and decided to take a look at what they might say about the current season...
Offense Goals/Game:
New England 1.78
Dallas 1.78
Chicago 1.67
Kansas City 1.55 (tell the truth, who would have guessed they were 4th?)
San Jose 1.50
Metros 1.47
DC 1.42
Los Angeles 1.26
Colorado 1.20
Chivas 1.05
Salt Lake .95
Columbus .89
Defense Goals/Game:
New England 1.00
DC 1.11
San Jose 1.15
Los Angeles 1.16
Dallas 1.22
Metros 1.26
KC 1.30
Colorado 1.35
Columbus 1.47
Chicago 1.48
Salt Lake 1.84
Chivas 2.10
Chivas, Salt Lake City and Columbus are bottom four on BOTH sides of the ball. It's not exactly rocket science to rule them out even without looking at it this way, but they're done.
Additionally, Colorado (offense) and Chicago (defense) are currently in the bottom four on one side of the ball. If that holds, history suggests they will not lift the Cup.
The only three teams that are currently in the top two on either side of the ball are New England (#1 on offense AND defense), Dallas (#2 offense) and DC (#2 defense).
Given that no one has managed to do what New England is doing this year (not just top two on offense and defense, but #1), they're hot favorites to win the title.
But United has really done a great job of keeping the D tight despite the departure of some big names, and it's not inconceivable, based on history, that it could carry them to title number five.