Analysis: US And Mexico Steaming Toward Germany

[OnTheSidelines]

"For two United States players, this match was a very nice rebound from an admittedly poor showing last weekend against England. Eddie Pope and Donovan silenced a good deal of critics, fans and media alike, with their performances against Costa Rica. ...

"For all of you who continue to say that Landon is soft and doesn't want to take that next step, by all means keep running your mouths. All he does is feed off of that negative energy and turn it into goals and assists for your national team."

http://mid-atlantic.matchnight.com/umindex.cfm?page=ARTICLE&ArticleID=2811

[elbita]

i think we are in fact steaming. if we win in panama it's almost a done deal.
i'm sure someone will be on shortly to hit the worrywart button...one game at a time...don't take anything for granted...remember what happened last time...yawn. we're going to qualify and qualify early.
we are deeper than last time and the hex is weaker than last time.
this time around we can have someone like reyna sit out the entire summer and we barely notice. our starting left winger, our starting defensive mid, and our hottest striker are all out and we win 3-0 against the team that won the hex last time.

the costa rica, mexico, honduras, jamaica, T&T of 2001-2002 were much tougher for us than the costa rica, mexico, guatemala, panama, T&T of today, IMO.

if we lose to panama and lose to mexico at home then we can think about getting nervous. if we win in panama and beat T&T at home, it's pretty much over.

[sidefootsitter]

... if we win in panama, it's pretty much over. Fixed.

[Heathens '87]

we are deeper than last time and the hex is weaker than last time.


A very valid point. Last year, sitting in the rain in Columbus watching us draw 1-1 with a Jamaican squad that would end up not advancing, I fully realized that perhaps the third-best team in CONCACAF has just been replaced in the Hex by Panama.

Trinidad and Tobago and Costa Rica are both teams in transition, waiting to move on from the days of Yorke and Wanchope. Panama has some spunk, but doesn't belong, and Guatemala actually has a decent chance to qualify if they can do something on Wednesday. Mexico actually may be better than 2002 as well, but overall, it's a weaker grouping.

I'll be in Columbus this September, and my hope is that a victory over El Tri may actually be the clinching game for a trip to Germany. Let's get Panama, and then we're on that path.......

[elbita]

Fixed.

you mean winning in panama would put us effectively into the "steaming" category? that sounds good.

some other thread had the results from the previous two Hexes. in 1998 we qualified with 4 wins. a win in panama would be our 4th with 5 games left, including 3 at home, including T&T and panama, probably the 2 most likely W's of the entire Hex.

let's go 9-1 this Hex. :)

[elbita]

Mexico actually may be better than 2002 as well, but overall, it's a weaker grouping.




i think they're very good. we seem to have their number outside of mexico, but they have a lot of good players in the prime of their careers right now. and oh yeah, clinching at home against them would be oh so sweet.

[sidefootsitter]

you mean winning in panama would put us effectively into the "steaming" category? that sounds good. ... 12 points should be enough for the play-off with Asia and the US will sit there with half of the scheduled games still to go.

Even if mathematically the US won't be in at that point, it's hard to conceive its not getting more than 3-4 points the rest of the way.

[SamsArmySam]

We are in a very good position indeed.

And for anyone out there dying to see what Eddie Gaven, Jonathon Spector, and Freddy Adu can do at the senior level, an early qualification is exactly what needs to happen for us to enter Phase III:

Phase I = Make it to Hex
Phase II = Qualify for Germany
Phase III = Build the World Cup Squad

Only after we qualify do we get to see the young prospects get their chance to sink or swim on the senior team.

[Asprilla9]

CONCACAF is weaker than in 2002????? no way, i hadn't noticed. :confused: :eek:

what's worse is that our 4th place team will playoff with asia's 5th place team for a WC spot, which right now is shaping up to be either Bahrain, Uzbekistan or China. and that adds up to one team that does not deserve to be there. UEFA and CONMEBOL will howl, and they'll be right.

the sad thing is, I really feel CONCACAF only has two deserving teams in the US and Mexico. some of you US supporters were really kind to CRC after the loss, but you can't believe that they are quality. they just got spanked 3-0 by a US team with a suspect back line and riddled with injuries at some key attacking positions. and coming off two embarrasing performances out of their last 3 matches (mexico and england). many of you think that CRC are a strong team, but i just don't see it. they look WAY down in quality from 4 years ago. CRC better get its act together quick or they will embarass the region in Germany ...

you know, the amazing thing is, CONCACAF actually had 4 TRULY deserving teams in 02 (US/Mex/CRC and Honduras). that Honduras team would have SPANKED everyone in this HEX, save for US and Mex. it's unfortunate they couldn't have had that team this go round ....

[Nutmeg]

So when Mexico comes to Columbus at the end of the Hex, will anybody care? If both have wrapped up qualification, I could easily see two C-squads going at it.

[sch2383]

So when Mexico comes to Columbus at the end of the Hex, will anybody care? If both have wrapped up qualification, I could easily see two C-squads going at it.
I doubt that...there would still be the issue of who wins the Hex, pride, more pride, and a chance that if the same team wins the Gold Cup and the Hex they could be seeded in the World Cup (I think).

[sidefootsitter]

So when Mexico comes to Columbus at the end of the Hex, will anybody care? If both have wrapped up qualification, I could easily see two C-squads going at it. There's always pressure for Mexico to win all its quals and always pressure on the coach to do well in the US.

But will the result be meaningful? I would say not.

[Asprilla9]

I doubt that...there would still be the issue of who wins the Hex, pride, more pride, and a chance that if the same team wins the Gold Cup and the Hex they could be seeded in the World Cup (I think).i'm sorry, but i don't think that's right. if the US already has a top 3 slot guaranteed ... it will be youngsters galore for that game.

you haven't been following Bruce's formula: He qualifies with veterans, then uses the rest of the time as trials for youngsters who are on the fence. problem was, last time we were only guaranteed WC position late, so Bruce didn't have a whole lot of time. thus guys like Agoos, Regis and Llamosa all ended up making the roster ... and guys like Cherundolo didn't get enough time to prove their worth.

Bruce learned his lesson last time. If we are mathematically guaranteed, trust me it will be TRIAL TIME for the youngsters. you can forget about pride, Gold Cup, etc ... those things pale in comparison to the WC ...

[Knave]

Phase I = Make it to Hex
Phase II = Qualify for Germany
Phase III = Build the World Cup Squad
When do we collect underpants?

[Asprilla9]

There's always pressure for Mexico to win all its quals and always pressure on the coach to do well in the US.what are you talking about??? Mexico sends B/C teams to the states all the time ...

[dfb547490]

So when Mexico comes to Columbus at the end of the Hex, will anybody care? If both have wrapped up qualification, I could easily see two C-squads going at it.

Both teams probably will have qualification for all intents and purposes locked up by then but it likely won't be mathematically certain so expect to see both sides come out with all guns blazing. I'd really like to see us mathematically lock up qualification in that one.

[SgtSchultz]

I love this so called expert analysis on the overall weakness of Concacaf. Do you really know how many strong teams there are in Europe and for that matter South America? The great thing about the World Cup is small soccer countries can dream of playing in the finals. Let's face facts, there are only 4-8 teams that have a realistic shot of winning the World Cup and the US is not one of them. Mexico falls into the same category. Get off your high horse about weak teams going to the World Cup. Let the small nations dream.

[Beckham7]

I love this so called expert analysis on the overall weakness of Concacaf. Do you really know how many strong teams there are in Europe and for that matter South America? The great thing about the World Cup is small soccer countries can dream of playing in the finals. Let's face facts, there are only 4-8 teams that have a realistic shot of winning the World Cup and the US is not one of them. Mexico falls into the same category. Get off your high horse about weak teams going to the World Cup. Let the small nations dream.
Greece did win Euro 2004. So anything could happen.

[Nutmeg]

I love this so called expert analysis on the overall weakness of Concacaf. Do you really know how many strong teams there are in Europe and for that matter South America?

The following list are the countries that in the World Cup I think would give the US all they can handle. Countries in blue would probably be favored over the US.

Europe:
France
Spain
England
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Portugal
Italy
Germany
Turkey
Ireland
Sweden
Greece
Denmark
Poland
Croatia

South America:
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Colombia

Asia:
Japan
Korea
Iran

Same thing - Africa:
Nigeria
Cameroon
Ivory Coast
Senegal

I think every single one of these teams could reasonably expect to beat Costa Rica. So yes - I do think CONCACAF is far weaker than it was in 2002. With a large contingency of tiny countries, you can expect inconsistency. Sometimes those countries will be awesome, and as they are now, sometimes they'll be in a down cycle. Costa Rica and Honduras are shadows of the teams they were just three years ago.

[NoSix]

The following list are the countries that in the World Cup I think would give the US all they can handle. Countries in blue would probably be favored over the US.

Europe:
France
Spain
England
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Portugal
Italy
Germany
Turkey
Ireland
Sweden
Greece
Denmark
Poland
Croatia


I would add Ireland and Sweden to the list of countries that would be favored over the US.