Qualified After Round Six...it's possible

[elbita]

Ok, so it's not likely, but it's possible. We've got CR home, Panama away, T&T home. That sounds like a very possible 9 points. That would put us at 15 with 12 left to play for. If we beat CR and Mexico beats Guatemala at home, both reasonable assumptions, both CR and Guate stay on 4 points while we move up to 9. Round 5 is CR vs. Guatemala, so either they both move up to 5 or one of them stays on 4 points. So after round 5 the US could be on 12 points with either CR or Guatemala still on 4. They'd have to double their take from rounds 1-5 just to tie us.

I know all that might not come to pass, but this time around I'd like to see us qualify sooner than later. No drama, just qualify early and get some young guys some mad minutes in rounds 8-10.

Our rounds 7-9 aren't too easy, either, with Mexico home and two straight away (CR and Guatemala, IIRC). Round 10 is home v. Panama.
Even if we had 15 after Round 6, we wouldn't be able to rest, but it would sure be swell.

I will be rooting for Mexico to beat everyone or at least draw away, because if I have a concern it would be CR or Guatemala on our backs rather than hoping for Mexico to not qualify. Mexico will qualify, so it's better if they take points from the rest and make it that much easier for us to finish top two.

[m vann]

You bring up a valid point. However, the last thing we and the players need to do is think about 9 points in 3 games to secure qualification. This puts why too much pressure on the players and is a receipt for disaster. We take one day at a time. Focus on the task at hand. I, too would rather qualify sooner than later, but thinking about securing qualification is the next 3 games is a little unrealistic. No doubt that playing in Panama, even if we are better, is going to be a tough feat. We already had one struggle there after we trashed them on our home soil. Nothing is smooth sailing for here on out and I pray that none of our players "coast" through this round. Bottom line is no one is secure and points are needed but you take one game at a time.

[swilso01]

I will be rooting for Mexico to beat everyone


Was there not a thread a little while back where we decided that you cannot be a US soccer fan and do this??

[Adam Zebrowski]

I think, the most probable clinching match is match day 8 in guatemala, which means 9 and 10 would be the kiddie matches...

sure, 6 or 7 are mathematically possible, but 7 is in costa rica, and I wouldn't bet my rent on winning there...

and 6 is just way too early, too many things need to go usa way

[Jay510]

I think, the most probable clinching match is match day 8 in guatemala, which means 9 and 10 would be the kiddie matches...

sure, 6 or 7 are mathematically possible, but 7 is in costa rica, and I wouldn't bet my rent on winning there...

and 6 is just way too early, too many things need to go usa way


6 points next 2 matches....thats the first step

[Adam Zebrowski]

let's say usa wins the next 3 matches putting us on 15 points...

that means there are 4 matches to play, and let us assume costa rica and guatemala currently on 4 points, WIN their final 4 matches, giving them 16 points, ahead of usa...

now, costa rica and guatemala play each other TWICE more, including the last on match day 10....

so, BOTH would need to go the next 3 without points, and given they play on match day 5, that's NOT going to happen....

[Jay510]

let's say usa wins the next 3 matches putting us on 15 points...

that means there are 4 matches to play, and let us assume costa rica and guatemala currently on 4 points, WIN their final 4 matches, giving them 16 points, ahead of usa...

now, costa rica and guatemala play each other TWICE more, including the last on match day 10....

so, BOTH would need to go the next 3 without points, and given they play on match day 5, that's NOT going to happen....


what?

dont we have more pressing issues than this?

[Adam Zebrowski]

true...

costa rica.

[Norsk Troll]

Only thing is, Guatemala is going to beat Mexico in Guatemala this weekend, so that will make things closer down the stretch.

But I would rather them be close, than root for Mexico.

[Adam Zebrowski]

the guatemala-mexico match is on telemundo kick-off 9 pm eastern...

will be nice to watch them go at it

[XYZ1234]

let's say usa wins the next 3 matches putting us on 15 points...

that means there are 4 matches to play, and let us assume costa rica and guatemala currently on 4 points, WIN their final 4 matches, giving them 16 points, ahead of usa...

Costa Rica and Guatemala can't both win their final 4 matches because they play each other on match day 10.

[Karl K]

Actually, I think qualifying too early is actually DETRIMENTAL to the development of the team.

The pressure will be on then to get other players in, when it's actually time to start narrowing the pool.

Moreover, the key pool players need pressure packed games to get them ready.

So, I think qualifying any early than Matchday 8 would NOT be a good thing, overall.

[XYZ1234]

Look at it this way:

If the US and Mexico win their next 3 matches and the others are draws, it's pretty much over

Mexico 16
USA 15
Guatemala 6
Costa Rica 5
Panama 4
Trinidad and Tobago 2

TnT couldn't catch the US

and with Panama - Costa Rica on 03-Sep-2005
and Guatemala - Costa Rica on 12-Oct-2005

There's no way for Panama and Costa Rica to both pass the US.

So yes the US can clinch 4th place by round six.

[XYZ1234]

So, I think qualifying any early than Matchday 8 would NOT be a good thing, overall.

I don't think it's even mathmatically possible to clinch 3rd place until match day 7 is over. I wouldn't worry about clinching too early. Hopefully by game 9.

[Adam Zebrowski]

I'd like to clinch on matchday 8 in guatemala...

then the MAIN euros can stay in europe the last two matches, some marginal mls types can get a look, and the kids, be it adu or gaven get a camp, and the GOLD CUP euro performers who pass the test, also get another look...

I think by looking at people, you actually narrow the pool by having MORE real play info from which you make a decision.....

barring injury, there are 18 guys who are close to be sure bets, the remaining slots might have 10-15 guys fighting it out...giving those 10-15 a look in hex play i think offers a more decisive info base

[TOTC]

The U.S.S.F., I think, is waiting to see what happens the next couple of matchdays to figure out exactly where to play Panama in the final home matchday. If it's in a tight situation, they don't want to play the game in Washington. If it's a "coronation," I think they might. Much depends on whether the Nationals (as of yesterday, one game out of the playoffs!) are in the baseball post-season.

[scaryice]

If they've already qualified, they might as well play it wherever they can make the most money, and get the biggest crowd.

[RalleeMonkey]

If they've already qualified, they might as well play it wherever they can make the most money, and get the biggest crowd.

Panama City!

























Florida

[GIO17]

Right now the US has 9 Points. We will have to wait and see what happenes after we face Panama in Panama City. But if everything is going smoothly and we earn four to six points in the next two matches before facing Mexico on Labor day, I believe that we will have coronation at Crew Stadium when the boys defeat the Mex-i-can'ts :D

[Hawkeye17]

Pending the result on Wednesday, the only "tough" games are against Mexico at Crew Stadium and Costa Rica at Saprissa. So as long as they get the points, the key is to qualify.

Against Trinidad at home might be a long shot at best--it might happen against Mexico at Crew Stadium, or if they are lucky against Guatemala on the road and that's going to be a challenge as well though on paper it should be three points. And really, it's Mexico and the USA with the rest trying to either qualify or play against an Asian team to get to Germany.

I'll speculate that if the USA qualifies by Game 9 the last game against Panama at home should go to one of the SSS (LA? Frisco, TX?). Otherwise, RFK despite having to compete with the Nationals as noted previously. Cheers!