Who will be the first teams to qualify for WC'06 and when?

[MIGkiller]

It's in that time of the year when the first qualified teams to the World Cup will begin to pop up. Traditionaly the first teams to qualify come from the African confederation, but I don't know if there are any teams that are close from qualifying in that region. It seems that the team that has the best chance of qualifying first is Argentina in the next Conmebol round in June, followed by Brazil. Does anyone have a better analysis of the World Cup Qualifying watch?

[Ombak]

CONMEBOL: June will see Argentina qualify as long as they get three points. Even if they don't they can qualify if the 5th place team falters. If Brazil wins one of their games and the 5th placed team doesn't get past 18 points (only one win for Uruguay), Brazil will also be mathematically qualified. Even if the fifth place team keeps the same distance with Brazil, they will be 8 points behind with only 9 points available, meaning a tie in September qualifies them.

In Africa, South Africa can qualify in June if they win both games and Cape Verde does not beat Congo. Again, if they win both, or win one and tie one, they are practically there.

Côte d'Ivoire has one very big game in June - if they beat Egypt at home they are in very good position. Before that, if they beat Libya away, they are practically in, and if Cameroon drops even two points from their games, Côte d'Ivoire can qualify in June.

Nigeria's biggest game is also in June, hosting Angola. If they win they will probably be able to qualify mathematically in September, with a game to spare.

In Group 5 Morocco is tied with Kenya (Kenya are three points behind, with one game in hand) and Group 1 has three teams tied, so those groups will probably not be decided until the final group games in October.

Asia also has two games per team in June. Althoguh right now everyone is mathematically in it I believe we will see at least one team in each group qualify in June. If Korea and Saudi Arabia defeat Kuwait and tie Uzbekistan they will in fact both be qualified already, with one game to go.

Iran should also qualify in June with two home games against the weaker teams in the group - Bahrain and Korea DPR. This might make Iran the first team to qualify given the time zones - if Argentina does not win their first game in June. Japan has two away games against those teams, but one, against Korea DPR, is at a neutral site. If they win both they are in. If they beat Bahrain and Iran beats Korea DPR in the first set of games, Iran will in fact be the first team to qualify.

CONCACAF has 7 games left. We might see the first team qualify in September, we might not. I think we'll see Mexico qualify in September if they win both June games and their second September game. If the USA wins their next 4 games - tough but doable - they'll be qualified in September. But I don't think it will be that easy for either of those teams. In the end we'll have to wait till October for either of them to be mathematically qualified.

In Europe we won't see anyone mathematically qualified in June either. Italy is closest thanks to a 4 point gap over Norway, but they play Norway in Oslo in June. If they win that game they can secure qualification in September.

All other groups have a 3 point difference or less at the top with 4 or 5 games to go. Anything can happen and we won't be able to consider anyone "mathematically" qualified until the second set of games in September at the very earliest.

[Ombak]

To summarise: We will see Argentina, Iran, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia qualified in June. With some good results in their favor, we'll also see Brazil, South Africa and Côte d'Ivoire in June. After that, more African and South American teams in September. Probably Nigeria, Paraguay and Ecuador. Maybe a lucky Mexico or the US (they also have a round in August which helps complete their busy schedule).

In October of course everyone else will be determined, save for those in the playoffs in UEFA, CONCACAF vs. AFC and CONMEBOL vs. Australia.

[bigdelta]

Argentina no later than 8 June.

[Ombak]

I went ahead and made a spreadsheet with predictions that adds up the predicted points to the current ones. I also included the August 17th games (only some groups play August 17th) in the prediction.

For Europe group 6, I added the September games since there is only one game before that.

Just unzip it and open it in excel.

[essie_majedi]

so you believe poland will take other the lead over england

[Ombak]

so you believe poland will take other the lead over englandPay attention. They will have a game in hand at that point.

[essie_majedi]

Ah I Didnt See That Your Right

[EvanJ]

FIFA World Cup has a poll about this and the results so far are (in parenthesis are the results only for people voting in English, you can vote in four languages):
Ukraine: 8% (7%)
Mexico: 15% (14%)
USA: 8% (10%)
Argentina: 23% (19%)
Brazil: 23% (23%)
Japan: 2% (3%)
Korea Republic: 9% (12%)
Other: 11% (11%)
Obviously some of the voters haven't analyzed the situation in every confederation.
Argentina hosting Brazil on June 8 will be a big game.

[ZeekLTK]

In Europe we won't see anyone mathematically qualified in June either. Italy is closest thanks to a 4 point gap over Norway, but they play Norway in Oslo in June. If they win that game they can secure qualification in September.

There is no way Italy is going to win in Oslo, so don't count on anyone from Europe to qualify in September either (unless they are from another group) because there is only going to be 1 point seperating the top teams in Group 5 after June 4.

Here's what the standings will look like heading into September:

12 - Italy
11 - Norway
11 - Winner of Belarus/Slovenia
8 - Loser of Belarus/Slovenia
2 - Scotland
2 - Moldova

[Tigerpunk]

Germany :)

[Ombak]

There is no way Italy is going to win in OsloUnlikely yes, but not "no way". :rolleyes: This isn't a rivalries or trash-talking thread.

[Cassano]

Unlikely yes, but not "no way". :rolleyes: This isn't a rivalries or trash-talking thread.

Who says it's unlikely we'll win in Oslo. Just a biased Norwegian fan? :rolleyes:

[ZeekLTK]

Unlikely yes, but not "no way". :rolleyes: This isn't a rivalries or trash-talking thread.

Norway have never lost to Italy in Oslo before (and have played numerous times), I don't see why this will be any different. :p

But sorry, I just don't like how people assume Italy are going to walk away with our group. Norway are going to give them a fight until the end, as are Belarus and maybe even Slovenia. If Belarus doesn't screw up at home against Slovenia, I think Norway and Belarus could both finish ahead of Italy by the end of qualifying (especially because I think both will beat Italy at home), but a lot of people are already assuming the Italians are a "lock" to be in Germany next year. =/

[Ombak]

Norway have never lost to Italy in Oslo before (and have played numerous times), I don't see why this will be any different. :p

But sorry, I just don't like how people assume Italy are going to walk away with our group. Norway are going to give them a fight until the end, as are Belarus and maybe even Slovenia. If Belarus doesn't screw up at home against Slovenia, I think Norway and Belarus could both finish ahead of Italy by the end of qualifying (especially because I think both will beat Italy at home), but a lot of people are already assuming the Italians are a "lock" to be in Germany next year. =/Noone suggested Italy would ruin away with the group. My posts above state that if Italy were to win they'd have an easy route, which is true. However I also pointed out that we will likely not see any European team qualified until October.Who says it's unlikely we'll win in Oslo. Just a biased Norwegian fan?Like I said above, this isn't rivalries. And as Zeek points out, Norway have not lost to Italy in Oslo.

[bigdelta]

Stop dreaming.The WORST Italy will do in OSLO is tie.Norway is desperate for a home win.Italy will prevail in the group with a tie.BTW,I am saying Italy will win that group going away.

[ursula]

Hey folks- let's back off the Italy-Norway fixation and focus on the bigger picture that Ombak's been showing us.

[bigdelta]

Guess you told us,huh?Maybe you should start a "Italy vs. Norway Fixation" thread since we got of the subject.Lighten' up.

[ShaRule]

of course Iran will be the firts team in the world to qualify!

[MIGkiller]

Bump.