Quick numbers on Hexagonals

[voros]

I did some quick number crunching on typical results in Hexagonals in World Cup qualifying the last 15 years or so. There's been 14 such Hexagonals between UEFA and CONCACAF.

The most points a team has gotten and not gotten third was Slovakia in 1998 which finished with 16 points and finished behind Czech Republic on Goal Differential. That group had two very weak teams. Malta got no points, and the Faroe Islands got only the 6 points they got off of Malta.

The most points a team has gotten and not gotten fourth was Northern Ireland in the last qualifying round.

So here's my guesses as to points needed:

Result Bare Minimum Average Needed Virtually Certain
Automatic 14 Pts 15 Pts 17 Pts
Playoffs 7 Pts 10 Pts 12 Pts

Looking at the remaining schedule:

It's possible we could essentially clinch a playoff spot by the end of June and also possible we could be all but qualified before we face Mexcio at Home or Costa Rica or Guatemala on the road.

The next two qualifiers are big. Two wins and then we'd be facing T&T at home with a chance to get to 15 points. 15 points is likely going to be enough and we'd still have Panama at home in the last game of the Hex.

Even a win and a draw would be nice as then a Win over T&T would mean that a single win in our last 4 would likely do the trick.

I can't see us missing the playoffs at this point, we're only 4 or 5 points from clinching at least that.

[scaryice]

Current Table

7-Mexico
6-United States
4-Guatemala
4-Costa Rica
2-Panama
1-Trinidad & Tobago

I'm gonna list the most likely results for June:

6/4:

GUA-MEX
TRI-PAN
USA-CR

MEX, draw, USA

6/8:

CR-GUA
MEX-TRI
PAN-USA

draw, MEX, USA

This would leave us with the following table:

Predicted Table

13-Mexico
12-United States
5-Guatemala
5-Costa Rica
3-Panama
2-Trinidad & Tobago

We could be in pretty good shape.

[Adam Zebrowski]

so the assumption is usa wins the next 3 hex matches and has 15 points going into the mexico match...

with 4 matches remaining for all, it's literally impossible to have clinched 3rd...

let's say 4th place has 5 points and the usa has 15....

4th wins out and usa losses out, thus 4th has 17 points and usa stuck on 15...

idealistically, the earliest to clinch is AFTER mexico...

however, realistically, after usa goes to guatemala, and gets a draw or win, then I think usa clinches 3rd....

the best scenario, hopefully match days 9 and 10, arena gets a chance to explore younger unproven talent.

[MarioKempes]

I don't think the players should have this attitude, but qualifying was always a foregone conclusion even before the hex began.

The only question is whether the US will finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd (unlikely).

[appoo]

I don't think the players should have this attitude, but qualifying was always a foregone conclusion even before the hex began.

The only question is whether the US will finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd (unlikely).

the sooner we qualify, the sooner we start playing Eddie Gaven, Chad Marshall, Mapp, Convey, Eskandarian, Buddle, Mullan, Szetela, Burciaga, Mulrooney, Ricardo Clark, Spector, Simek, etc.

[Adam Zebrowski]

if we say the A line-up for the usa is:

keller
cherundolo pope gibbs bocanegra
mastroeni reyna
donovan beasley
EJ (forward du jour - wolff for arguments sake)

Gold Cup is where the 2nd line personnel identify and prove themselves as being worthy of a hex match...

so, I'd list the guys high on arena's list of continuing to get hex play, assuming clinching to be:

onyewu
dempsey

as almost sure bets...

now at forward, the coming mls season should identify who's in form and who deserves a shot to be paired with EJ..

so, ching, twellman, casey, eskandarian, buddle and whomever need to get hot, then produce in the autumn hex..

I'd throw spector and gaven in those likely to get a look, based on arena's slow blooding of kids...

now arena, won't want to make dramatic shifts, so 2 or 3 test guys might be the limit, because teamwork and chemistry and knowing how players will fit together is helpful....having a half dozen new faces makes evaluation about roles a bit more problematic...

invites to a camp can occur, but doubt arena goes overboard and plays a simek or szetela.

[Indiana Jones]

What will be interesting is to see if the CONCACAF winner (and runner up)gets seeded in the World Cup draw. . Assuming its Mexico or the USA, both are ranked in the top 10 (more or less) so FIFA would basically trash their own rankings if they seeded lower ranked European teams higher for the World Cup !!

[mdfc]

Would winning the group be any factor in how we are 'seeded' for the WC? Is it possible to pass Mexico in the Fifa rankings, or does it go so far back it is irrelevant?

Obviously getting to the knock out stage of the WC depends a lot on who is in your group.

[Adam Zebrowski]

at best, in head to head, usa and mexico would split matches, making the mexico 6th and usa 10th seemingly the same..

there are 16 points difference, so someone with algorthimic knowledge of what's needed to make up the difference would be useful...

still, over the past 3 world cups, mexico's performance is better than usa, so that's part of the equation for seeding too...

I'd be more concerned with mexico dropping to 8th and concacaf NOT getting a seed whatsoever

[mdfc]

if getting a 1-8 seed is out of the question, we need to make certain that we are well within the group of 9-16...

which gets back to the question...if how we fare in the qualifying group has anything to do with it [and it may not] we don't need to be throwing results away experimenting at the end of the year...even though top 3 is certain.

Prepare for 06 in 05...prepare for 10 in 07.

[um_chili]

if getting a 1-8 seed is out of the question, we need to make certain that we are well within the group of 9-16...


Not how it works. Teams are either seeded or unseeded. The eight seeds are each distributed into separate groups; after that, teams are organized and then distributed by confederation. We could end up 9th or 109th, it would make no difference.

[ThreeApples]

I have a little computer program that analyzes all of the possible future results in the hex. With 3 possible results from each match, and 21 matches yet to play, there are almost 10.5 billion possible unique combinations. Here are the percentages of those scenarios that put the USA in each possible qualification category (there is no analysis of tiebreakers):

Definitely top 3: 67.7%
Tie of 2 or more teams between top 3 and 4th place: 6.9%
Tie of 3 or more teams between top 3, 4th place and bottom 2: 1.2%
Definitely 4th place: 8.5%
Tie of 2 or more teams between 4th place and bottom 2: 4.2%
Definitely bottom 2: 11.4%

Don't consider these to be odds, because in real life results aren't completely random.

[voros]

so the assumption is usa wins the next 3 hex matches and has 15 points going into the mexico match...

with 4 matches remaining for all, it's literally impossible to have clinched 3rd...

let's say 4th place has 5 points and the usa has 15....

4th wins out and usa losses out, thus 4th has 17 points and usa stuck on 15...
But for 4th to win out, they would have to take points from other teams, so while they would finish ahead of the USA, the team(s) in between might not, meaning the USA would still make 3rd.

I'm not saying they'd clinch at 15, I'm saying 15 is likely going to be enough for 3rd place. IOW, I'm saying it is likely that the 4th place team will finish with less than 15 points.

I don't think the USA winning it's next three is the most likely outcome. I'm guessing the most likely outcome would probably be two wins and a draw, but who really knows.

[scaryice]

There is a system for how the seeds are selected. Look it up.

[VioletCrown]

There is a system for how the seeds are selected. Look it up.

Ought to be somewhere in this thread (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=135020).

[VioletCrown]

I have a little computer program that analyzes all of the possible future results in the hex. With 3 possible results from each match, and 21 matches yet to play, there are almost 10.5 billion possible unique combinations. Here are the percentages of those scenarios that put the USA in each possible qualification category (there is no analysis of tiebreakers):

Definitely top 3: 67.7%
Tie of 2 or more teams between top 3 and 4th place: 6.9%
Tie of 3 or more teams between top 3, 4th place and bottom 2: 1.2%
Definitely 4th place: 8.5%
Tie of 2 or more teams between 4th place and bottom 2: 4.2%
Definitely bottom 2: 11.4%

Don't consider these to be odds, because in real life results aren't completely random.

So if it were random, the 'Def. top 3 + tie with top 3 and 4th + def. 4th'= 83.1%... right?

Which means that, as many of us are already feeling, we're in really good shape. 'Cause we're better than random.

[Craig P]

Would winning the group be any factor in how we are 'seeded' for the WC?Only indirectly, to the extent that it might help us pass the Netherlands in the FIFA rankings, which might get us a seed should one of the anticipated seeds from UEFA fail to qualify.

Is it possible to pass Mexico in the Fifa rankings, or does it go so far back it is irrelevant?I don't think it's likely to happen in the short term.

[Craig P]

What will be interesting is to see if the CONCACAF winner (and runner up)gets seeded in the World Cup draw. . Assuming its Mexico or the USA, both are ranked in the top 10 (more or less) so FIFA would basically trash their own rankings if they seeded lower ranked European teams higher for the World Cup !!It would only "trash their own rankings" if the goal were to get the eight best teams, which it is not -- if that was really what they wanted, I'm sure they would have no problem with taking the FIFA rankings as they are, or more likely doing a short-term average (say, over the last year).

Mexico will be seeded if they qualify, we have a slim chance at getting seeded if we qualify, and that's true regardless of where either team finishes in the hex (moreso for Mexico since they don't need match results to improve their FIFA ranking).

We have been over this before (multiple times)... and weren't you in on the conversation then?

[england66]

brazil, argentina,germany,italy and france (if they make it) will be seeded...pick the other 3...

[Eliezar]

so the assumption is usa wins the next 3 hex matches and has 15 points going into the mexico match...

with 4 matches remaining for all, it's literally impossible to have clinched 3rd...

let's say 4th place has 5 points and the usa has 15....

4th wins out and usa losses out, thus 4th has 17 points and usa stuck on 15...

You are mathematically correct but it is difficult to imagine any other outdome. Adjusting the previous Predicted table for worst case scenario in match day 6

Predicted Table

16-Mexico
15-United States
8-Guatemala
5-Costa Rica
3-Panama
2-Trinidad & Tobago

This means that Costa Rica would need 11 points from 4 games and Guatemala would need 8 points from 4 games to knock the US out of the top 3. This means Guatemala has to beat Mexico in Mexico, US, and T&T and then lose to CR at home! This means Costa Rica has to beat Guatemala on the road as well as defeat Panama, T&T, and the US.

Getting to 15 basically qualifies you although I do admit there is a chance that Guate and CR beat everybody other than each other.