Who Will Go To Germany- Take #382

[ursula]

The Clint Dempsey thread got me thinking once again about the chances of various players-particularly the younger one- in getting to Germany. I figure there's three ways to guess on who will make the team:

1) Try to guess at Arena's depth charts. In some cases this is easy like Landon Donovan is gonna start almost definitely at a-mid but if not then at forward. Only a bit harder is the Pablo Mastroeni is the starter at d-mid or His Holiness starts at central defense. But where does, oh, Jonathan Spector really fit in Arena's eyes? Bobby Convey? Eddie Gaven? The Cartographer? Etc ad nauseam? We have lots of interesting threads on these guys but what we don't have is enough info on how Arena's pecking order is.

2) Yell as loud as possible with lots of arm waving. Yes, this is a tried and true method here at BigShoutingandBitchingandRidicule.com. Sometimes it even seems to work!

3) Look at what Arena did in the last WC cycle- the one leading to Korea. In retrospect was there a way that he had separated out his eventual Korea team some months or years ahead of time? In particular, was their any pattern in his selecting the younger players on the team?

So for this thread I thought long and hard about using method #2, but decided to look into method #3.

The Korea team had the following five players aged 25 or less: Beasley (age:20), Donovan (20), JOB (25), Wolff (25), plus Cherundolo (23) who was originally an alternate team member but made the team when 1) Chris Armas tore his ACL vs Uruguay before the WC then his replacement, Greg Vanney messed with his MCL in the very next friendly (vs Jamaica). (As far as I know Cherundolo does not know Tonya Harding though they did in fact live in Portland at the same time while Cher was in college there. Hmmm.) 'Dolo, of course got hurt in Korea before he could play a minute- but he was in fact there. (Note: Mastroeni was still 25 in Korea but his case, with his late-arriving citizenship is too unique to fit in here.)

Anyways what stands out in this fivesome?

- All five played in WCQs. And all started multiple times (except Beasley, see below.) But their participation varied widely. Cherundolo actually played the most WCQs- seven, starting all seven. JOB played in six, starting four. Then came Wolff with five WCQs starting two. Those three all played in the semifinal round. Donovan played in just four WCQs, starting three times while Beasley just played in one, the last vs T&T which he started.

- The three MLS-based players played in the 02 Gold Cup But the two Euro guys (at the time) didn't.

-They were Arena regulars once they played in a WCQ. This I think is important. Once they debuted in a WCQ game they played regularly for Arena except for when they were hurt. Wolff, Cherundolo, and JOB (!) all had injuries that kept them for playing for months but as soon as they got back in shape, Arena started picking them again. JOB is the one exception here with his club vs country stress keeping him out at times. (Actually Cherundolo also had a bit of this problem too (and Eddie Lewis.))

-The three who had injuries all got hurt at the right time. Kinda obvious but think of two of their main competitors for spots in Korea: Olsen and Klein. Both were very much in the mix before they each got injuries that took them out of the running for too long to re-integrate with the team.

- They all had at least nine caps before Arena selected the Korea team. In other words Arena didn't take anyone who he hadn't played and started a fair amount. The number of caps? Beasley- 9, Cherundolo- 10, JOB- 13, Wolff- 16, and Donovan- 20.

Beasley was also the last to debut for Arena (1/27/01). Donovan debuted on 10/25/00. Wolff and Cherundolo were first blooded on 9/8/99 while Sampson first played JOB on 4/22/98.

This all adds up to that Arena won't take someone who he hasn't played a fair amount for at least a year before he selects the team. For all interested players that means that you'd better get your first cap in ASAP if you haven't already. In this cycle I think ASAP means by this summer's Gold Cup and we will know if Arena likes a given player in said Gold Cup because he will then play him in the remaining WCQs.

Contrast the highlighted five players to other younger players in the running for Korea: Brian West and Richard Mulrooney both of whom were named alternates to the Korea team or the aforementioned Klein and Olsen, both injury casualties. I already discussed Olsen and Klein. West made his nats debut on 4/26/00 @ Russia- only LD and DMB made later debuts. He didn't play in any WCQs, played in seven total friendlies, none of them starts. (I still can't see why he was named as an alternate over a then healthy Klein.) Mulrooney didn't debut until 12/9/01 @ Korea, after the WCQs were over. He did start in 3 friendlies though leading me to think that if Cherundolo had gotten hurt before the team actually left for Korea, Mulrooney would have gotten the last seat. In the end it was too little too late for Richard.

Or Jeff Cunningham who played in three pre WC friendlies only.


So with this info above I think we can see a bit better various player's chances for the Germany team. All the youngest five players had Nats debuts by this time in the last cycle so if you have a favorite player who hasn't played yet (Adu? Mapp?) it's doubtful that he has the time to make an impact to make Germany. Maybe the Gold Cup can save them. Maybe. But if they have played, even a little (Gaven? Spector?) the future looks good if they put in a decent summer in MLS or spring in Europe.

I think this info also strengthens the likelihood of projecting Clint Dempsey onto the team. He's made his debut and can, I think, now be called a regular call-up by Arena. Unless he pulls an Olsen...

[Haole]

Interesting stuff.

BTW, what do you think the optimum temperature is for brewed coffee?

Thanks.

[ursula]

I like Murchee's #10 blend tea for everyday drinking, thank you. And don't boil the damn water.

[eplkewell]

One more thing you need to consider for this World Cup is which players from last time are out of the mix now. The number of new, younger players will be dependant on how many spots open up.

[Ghost]

I dont' think you can fully extrapolate things from the last cycle because this is a transition cycle. We've gone from looking forplayers to looking for the right players. Scarcity has become abundance or more abundant, At six positions (GK, DM, AM, LW,CD and CD) we have more capable candidates than open positions.At the two strikers spots we have one settled and theoretical compettion at the other one.LB and RW , well, who knows? This also a far lessveteran team, with more spots available for youngsters, so that adds more uncertainty.

Bruce started out with a similar strategy as last time, drawing players from the previous team and alternates. Greg Vanney is a good example of the bad example, a player of marginal talent and advancing almost by seniority .Stewart and Armas are examples of this strategy. That was a dying ship. In the past nine months or so, Bruce has seemed more open to exploring younger possibilities (EJ, Gaven, Dempsey, etc.). That's brought in some fresh legs and some upward pressure on veterans to peform. Both good things.

With so many young guys at the threshhold of breaking out (or not breaking out) in Europe, there still is the chance that someone comes out of nowhere to seize a spot. For instance, what if Frank Simek goes on loan somewhere for next year at low Prem high D1 level and plays as solidly as he did on his month-long loan? What if Spector plays left back on loan? What if Marvell Wynne plays brilliantly at the WYC and is contrbuting minutes in Europe next year?We'll see.

[Nutmeg]

Goalkeepers
Kasey Keller
Tim Howard
John Busch*

Defenders
Carlos Bocanegra
Eddie Pope
Corey Gibbs
Oguchi Onyewu
Chad Marshall
Frankie Hejduk
Steve Cherundolo
Chris Albright

Midfielders
Landon Donovan
DaMarcus Beasley
Claudio Reyna**
John O'brien**
Pablo Mastroeni
Eddie Lewis
Clint Dempsey
Kerry Zavagnin
Chris Klein

Forwards
Eddie Johnson
Brian McBride**
Josh Wolff**
Brian Ching

* I really have no idea who might be the #3 at this point
** These players have a serious chance of being injured & unavailable

Possible Alternates
Clint Mathis
Jonathan Spector
Eddie Gaven
Taylor Twellman
Alecko Eskandarian
Brian Mullan
Kyle Martino
Edson Buddle
Davy Arnaud
Steve Ralston

Some very, very good players are not going to the World Cup this time around.

[HartwickFan]

1) Try to guess at Arena's depth charts. In some cases this is easy like Landon Donovan is gonna start almost definitely at a-mid but if not then at forward. Only a bit harder is the Pablo Mastroeni is the starter at d-mid or His Holiness starts at central defense.

If Reyna and O'Brien are healthy then I could see Reyna and O'Brien starting over Mastro. I realize, though, that this is a huge "if," and, sadly, I really don't expect ever to see O'Brien in a nats uniform again.

I also think that by the summer of '06, Gooch, Gibbs, Boca, Marshall, and possibly Spector (depending on how much first-team playing time he gets over the next two seasons) will be better center backs than Pope. Pope's age is already starting to show, and he's got two full seasons of soccer left before the World Cup.

I am afraid, though, that Arena will start Pope out of loyalty, even though better players have emerged. That is, I'm worried Pope in '06 is going to be the Agoos of '02. Given Pope's injury history, though, I think there's a good chance he will hurt himself and be unavailable for the World Cup.

[Maximum Optimal]

oh ye of little faith--do not forget bobby convey

[ursula]

I dont' think you can fully extrapolate things from the last cycle because this is a transition cycle. We've gone from looking forplayers to looking for the right players. Scarcity has become abundance or more abundant, At six positions (GK, DM, AM, LW,CD and CD) we have more capable candidates than open positions.At the two strikers spots we have one settled and theoretical compettion at the other one.LB and RW , well, who knows? This also a far lessveteran team, with more spots available for youngsters, so that adds more uncertainty.

Bruce started out with a similar strategy as last time, drawing players from the previous team and alternates. Greg Vanney is a good example of the bad example, a player of marginal talent and advancing almost by seniority .Stewart and Armas are examples of this strategy. That was a dying ship. In the past nine months or so, Bruce has seemed more open to exploring younger possibilities (EJ, Gaven, Dempsey, etc.). That's brought in some fresh legs and some upward pressure on veterans to peform. Both good things.

With so many young guys at the threshhold of breaking out (or not breaking out) in Europe, there still is the chance that someone comes out of nowhere to seize a spot. For instance, what if Frank Simek goes on loan somewhere for next year at low Prem high D1 level and plays as solidly as he did on his month-long loan? What if Spector plays left back on loan? What if Marvell Wynne plays brilliantly at the WYC and is contrbuting minutes in Europe next year?We'll see.

Good post.

Yeah I see the difficulties in extrapolating from the last cycle. But I did so in hopes of looking at the player pool without having to guess things like,"What if Frank Simek becomes a premiership player next year? Who does he have to beat out to go to Germany?" And I think I found something which goes beyond any depth charts.

That something is that Bruce Arena is resistant to incorporating a player very late in the WC cycle. He values players learning each other's tendencies as importantly at least as how good that player is. In other words he's looking less for an all-star team than a regular club team. If what I'm saying is true there is for this WC cycle than a player like Frank Simek or Marvelle Wynne have very very little chance to make the Germany squad almost regardless of what they do from now until then.

Now one may react to this and say that there's either no way that Arena could be so blind to a possibly very talented young player or if he is than he shouldn't be coaching the team. But I don't think that's the case here.

Take Wynne or Simek or both. We here @ bigSoccer have identified these two from different playing situations as being possible Nats material. Well if We have identified them you can bet that Arena knows a hell of a lot more about them then we do. And that he's come to his own conclusions about them and their futures. And with these two guys Arena is concluding- most probably- no, not for this cycle.

But how would I rush to that conclusion? Because Arena also has a documented tendency to identify some select young players and bring them into camp early, before they are really ready to play. Sometimes this works like with Donovan who was on the bench at the US-Argentina game in D.C. way back in 6/3/99 or it may work out only so-so like with Chris Albright.


Currently you can say that Eddie Gaven is being given this kind of treatment, maybe Onyewu too.

Of course this is where the depth chart plays into it: if we are really deep at a position that a youngster shows promise then it's less likely that that kid gets pushed along. But depth charts only take you so far (injuries can and I'll guarantee you will occur to at least one other mainstay besides JOB or Reyna) and the example of Eddie Johnson shows that Arena will let a kid force their way onto the team. (Of course Arena had to give Johnson the opportunity to force his way to starting in the first place..)

Which gets back to my point: Arena looks at his whole team including youngsters and chooses months ahead of time (if not a year or two) how he's gonna proceed. Then he follows that plan. Not everything in the plan works out first time (Coner Casey?) so he has backups to check on (Ching and Johnson and Eskandarian). But there comes a time where he says in effect, "I'm going with what I have now. I feel good enough about these guys and their backups and I'm gonna play these guys. The tryouts are over." Last WC cycle, Beasley and, because of injuries Cherundolo just beat that deadline. This WC the deadline for uncapped players like Simek or Wynne or Adu may already have passed- or if not then they better break out and soon in a huge way.

Thus the player pool is fairly small- about what Nutmeg posted above. And as Nutmeg said, "Some very, very good players are not going to the World Cup this time around."

[Shaster]

Arena only played those youngsters in the friendlies after he decided those youngsters can help the team in World Cup and Qualifiers.

This time the youngsters are :

Eddie Johnson, Clint Dempsey, Eddie Gaven, Oguchi Onyewu, Jonathan Spector.

Who can be a good left back, a good right back, and a good right winger will have a great chance. So even don't rule out John Thorrington out.

[gnatfan]

I think I would also add two other variables to throw into this mix: versatility and potential match-ups. We know we will lose a few players to cards and/or injury issues while in Germany. It is critical to bring folks who can play multiple positions AND be comfortable at that spot in backing up our original XI.

I also wonder if Bruce would look at certain games and bring a player because they are a good fit for the style he is planning on playing against that team. This is also a benefit from having a deeper pool of players to draw from--we can take a "risk" on a player if need be know that we have others to cover for him if the strategy fails.

[Bird]

I think the most interesting data points are Mastroeni and Mulrooney. Mulrooney hadn't played in a WCQ, but he was playing great soccer for the 2001 MLS Champions and filled a critical need for Bruce (at d-mid, with Armas down, and at right back), and thus made the alternate list without much PT with the NT.

Bruce is generally pretty methodical about blooding young players -- wait until they prove their chops at the pro level, then (1) bring them into camp to get a taste of the speed/team dynamic, (2) give them a bench seat for a friendly, (3) get them into a meaningless game for a few minutes, and then (4) get them into a meaningful match. If they make it that far, he plays them in multiple games to gain experience and see whether they're consistent.

If they're consistent, they might get the call for the WC team. If they're not, they might get a call if they fill a need, but they could also get placed in the Albright 2002 file. In other words, multiple starts in the lead up to the WC are a strong indicator of interest from Il Bruce, but aren't a guarantee that you're in the final 23.

So, we should have a pretty good indication of what Bruce is thinking about guys like Dempsey and Gooch based on the number of callups they get in the next few months and the quality of their play in friendlies, the GC and Hex.

Young guys like Adu, Mapp, Simek and Whitbread, who are unlikely callups right now based on their club play, seem like real outside shots to break into the team at this point. However, as the Mulrooney/Mastro examples form 2002 show, they could slide in late in the cycle if they had great club seasons and filled a major tactical need.

Given our troubles at right/left back, it's not out the question than someone like a Spector or Whitbread (or a Philipakos, Rogers, etc.) could be a late call in in 2006 if they broke into their respective clubs first teams over the summer and had breakout seasons. In fact, the timing of the Euro leagues would potentially favor them.

[ursula]

Arena only played those youngsters in the friendlies after he decided those youngsters can help the team in World Cup and Qualifiers.

This time the youngsters are :

Eddie Johnson, Clint Dempsey, Eddie Gaven, Oguchi Onyewu, Jonathan Spector.

Who can be a good left back, a good right back, and a good right winger will have a great chance. So even don't rule out John Thorrington out.

Not sure what you are saying here. That first group of players is right, but the comment on Thorrington is almost- almost completely wrong. For an uncapped player to get consideration now they have to break out in a huge way- like how Ryan Nelsen is doing in Blackburn or in MLS making this year's MLS Best XI team.


Bird highlighting the Mastroeni/Mulrooney example above illustrates this perfectly.

And again, unless lightning strikes see the next post for the real player pool.

[ursula]

BINGO!

Goalkeepers
Kasey Keller
Tim Howard
John Busch*

Defenders
Carlos Bocanegra
Eddie Pope
Corey Gibbs
Oguchi Onyewu
Chad Marshall
Frankie Hejduk
Steve Cherundolo
Chris Albright

Midfielders
Landon Donovan
DaMarcus Beasley
Claudio Reyna**
John O'brien**
Pablo Mastroeni
Eddie Lewis
Clint Dempsey
Kerry Zavagnin
Chris Klein

Forwards
Eddie Johnson
Brian McBride**
Josh Wolff**
Brian Ching

* I really have no idea who might be the #3 at this point
** These players have a serious chance of being injured & unavailable

Possible Alternates
Clint Mathis
Jonathan Spector
Eddie Gaven
Taylor Twellman
Alecko Eskandarian
Brian Mullan
Kyle Martino
Edson Buddle
Davy Arnaud
Steve Ralston

Some very, very good players are not going to the World Cup this time around.

[scaryice]

I don't think Brian Ching will be there. I would bet on Casey being taken before him, if either of them make it.

[afgrijselijkheid]

Who can be a good left back, a good right back, and a good right winger will have a great chance. So even don't rule out John Thorrington out.


ummm cherundolo?

[metx]

I don't think Brian Ching will be there. I would bet on Casey being taken before him, if either of them make it.


I don't think that; Bush, Pope, Reyna, O'brain, JOB, Albright, Hejduk, Zavagnin, Wolff, and Ching will make it, instead, we will use:

Walker, Spector, Gaven, Parke, Mullan, Esky, Adu, Martino, Arnaud, Ralston or some body else....

[Ghost]

Ursula,

I don't think I necessarily disagree with you that much. The vast majority of players that are going to make it to the WC have already been capped. In fact, the two most likely teenagers to make it --- Spector and Gaven --- have already been capped. I still think there may be a shot at a couple of positions for currently uncapped players to make an impression -- LB (????), RM (Philipakos), backup right back (Wynne or Simek?).Adu could possibly slip in with a breakout year. It would be hard for our current ho-hum crop of forwards to keep plugging away if Edson Buddle straightened up, flew right, stayed healthy and led the league in goals. Granted technically he's already been capped, but he's hardly in the picture right now. .

I appreciate your attempt to get above the fray and look at it dispassionately and from a systemic point of view. . I think you've accurately expressed Bruce Arena's tendencies. But I also think that it's impossible to look solely at the system without looking at individual players invovled. Part of this story from the last cycle no doubt is that the players being looked at in early 2002 simply weren't overly impressive. Most of those guys haven't really been in the picture this cycle either, and/or were not total standouts then in their time on the field. However, do you think that if, say, Jeff Cunningham had gone on an GAM-esque goal-scoring tear over the first half of 2002 that he wouldn't have been in Korea? I'm sure he would have been. (Granted citizenship issues play a role there, too.) Those guys largely were not people who were going to contribute to the team down the road, either..Ithink soem ofthe people I have mentioned are better bets.

[Nutmeg]

Part of this story from the last cycle no doubt is that the players being looked at in early 2002 simply weren't overly impressive. Most of those guys haven't really been in the picture this cycle either, and/or were not total standouts then in their time on the field.

I am not sure I understand what you mean by "looked at" or "most," but some players who either emerged or re-emerged in early 2002 went on to play key roles at the World Cup, including Pablo Mastroeni, Frankie Hejduk, and John O'brien. Also keep in mind that DaMarcus Beasley essentially broke out in 2002, was the last player added to the WC roster, and got the start against Portugal because according to Arena, he showed no fear in prepping for the game.

About this time last year, I started a thread related to this subject entitled "Surprises," which can be viewed by following this link (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=106901).

Essentially, I see two opportunities for a player who hasn't seen much time in qualifiers up to this point to make a case for himself on the 2006 roster.



A player in front of him on the depth chart gets injured.
A player shows through club play that he is obviously at a superior form than those currently on the roster.
I'd put $100 on at least one player who hasn't seen more than 100 minutes in qualifying to this point making the final World Cup roster and playing a significant role in the World Cup. Somebody will get injured. Somebody will see age and mileage catch up with them. Some young player is going to make the case that he's too good to be ignored.

I believe the roster I posted earlier in this thread would be close to 90% correct if nobody were injured. But somebody will be. That's the name of the game in International Soccer, and it is exactly why Bruce will continue to look at new(er) players right until it's time for him to name his final roster.

[appoo]

take #383 will be important and that will be right after the Gold Cup. Remember who played in the last one? DaMarcus Beasley and Frankie Hejuk and Landon Donovan.

this time around you'll see the likes of Convey, Spector, Marshall, and some others under the radar at this point. If they can show well there they might force Bruce's hand