The Stretch Run

[TrooperBari]

So here we are ... 11 matches to go and - somehow - still clinging to fourth place. This is when all the punditry believed our small squad would bite us in our collective ass, but we're five points up on That Other Team in Town with others close behind them.

According to ToffeeWeb, we're going to need about five wins or so in our last 11 to lock up a Champions League spot. Let's look at what's ahead:

2/26 @ Aston Villa
3/6 v. Blackburn
3/20 @ TOTiT
4/3 @ West Brom
4/10 v. Crystal Palace
4/16 @ Arsenal
4/20 v. ManYoo
4/23 v. Birmingham
4/30 @ Fulham
5/7 v. Newcastle
5/14 @ Bolton

Where will those five wins come from? The matches against Blackburn, WBA, Palace and Fulham are certainly winnable, but points from Arsenal, ManYoo and That Other Team in Town will be hard to come by. That leaves Villa, Birmingham, Newcastle and Bolton ... all mid-table clubs who could make life very difficult for us.

So where do we get the points and where do we finish?

[Rocket]

That leaves Villa, Birmingham, Newcastle and Bolton ... all mid-table clubs who could make life very difficult for us.

So where do we get the points and where do we finish?
Newcastle are 2-6-5 (W-D-L) on the road, and Birmingham are 3-4-6. With any luck, we should be able to win at least one of those matches.


As to where we finish, I don't really care too much as long as we don't totally choke and miss out on Europe.

[sarabella]

I can see us beating Birmingham and Newcastle, so by your calculations, that gives us one win more than we need to make the Champions League. I think we're determined enough to finish in the 4th spot, I just don't know if we have the manpower.

[Scouse]

3/6 v. Blackburn
3/20 @ TOTiT
4/3 @ West Brom
4/10 v. Crystal Palace
4/16 @ Arsenal
4/20 v. ManYoo
4/23 v. Birmingham
4/30 @ Fulham
5/7 v. Newcastle
5/14 @ Bolton

4 wins from 10 now :D

[kerpow]

If we win against Blackburn and Liverpool fail to beat Newcastle it grows to 10pts. Even being extremely pessimistic and assuming we lose to the RS (though I think a draw is much more likely) its still no crisis. West Brom should be 3 points and even though Palace are playing well they're beating teams that are weak defensively.

What it boils down to is that Liverpool are running out of games to close the gap.

[PE230]

I'm hoping by the time we play WBA and Palace we will have secured 4th place or even 3rd by then!!! :p

[kerpow]

We're now closer to Arsenal then Liverpool and as they have an injury crisis it isn't impossible to catch them. Pires, Henry, Reyes, Bergkamp and Van Perise all out. With Sol Campbell out for the return game with Munich they are almost guarenteed elimination.

[Nicodemus145]

This is when all the punditry believed our small squad would bite us in our collective ass
Having they been "predicting" this inevitable demise of Everton's since like week 4?
Villa was the first time yall got 3 points away from home since Nov. 13
In my uneducated guesstimate, I say:
W v. Blackburn
D @ TOTiT
W @ West Brom
W v. Crystal Palace
D @ Arsenal
L v. ManYoo
W v. Birmingham
W @ Fulham
D v. Newcastle (great game)
D @ Bolton
optimist? i'd like to think so :D

[sarabella]

Nicodemus, you really are an optimist. I think we're gonna lose RS and Newcastle. Maybe even against Arse if they get their act together. Pessimist? Probably. :D

[TrooperBari]

Good results today from Boro, Charlton and TOTiT.

Even if we slip up against Blackburn, that's one less opportunity they have to catch us.

[Rocket]

Eight games to go and we're 4 pts ahead of Liverpool and 5 pts ahead of Bolton.

Here's the home stretch:

Everton...............Liverpool.................Bolton

@West Brom..........Bolton..................@Liverpool
Crystal Palace.....@Man City..................Fulham
Man Utd...............Tottenham............@Charlton
Birmingham..........@Portsmouth............Southampton
@Fulham.............@Crystal Palace......@Aston Villa
Newcastle.............Middlesbrough.........Chelsea
@Arsenal............@Arsenal................@Portsmouth
@Bolton...............Aston Villa...............Everton

Of note:

1) the Red Shiite and Bolton face off when the EPL resumes play on April 2 -- wouldn't a draw be nice for them. :)

2) the Toffees and Bolton clash on the final weekend of the season

[Osman21]

What's not mentioned their is the RS have to play Juve twice, in what would be intense and emotional games even if they weren't the CL 1/4 finals. Hope they go to extra time, win then get knocked out in extra time in the semis.

[Rocket]

What's not mentioned their is the RS have to play Juve twice, in what would be intense and emotional games even if they weren't the CL 1/4 finals. Hope they go to extra time, win then get knocked out in extra time in the semis.
Good point. Liverpool's 1st match vs. Juve is on April 5, 3 days after their match vs. Bolton.

It'll be interesting to see if some of the RS' key starters are rested for the Bolton game (hopefully improving the Wanderers chance for a draw)

[zerorespects]

also, three of the RS' starters were injured today, so that will slow them down

[zerorespects]

on premierleague.com there is a predictor that you can input the results in the coming games

[zerorespects]

great. we're down to a 1 point lead. the only way we are going to keep fourth is if we get results against man u and arsenal, and not ******** up like we did against blackburn