Iraqi Election Results Thread (multiple threads merged)

[superdave]

"Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Grand Ayatollah Sistani, supreme leader of Iraq."

oops.
Nah, he's not like that. I don't know if you were just going for the cheap'n'easy joke, or you really think this might happen. It won't happen.

[obie]

Sistani is Iranian, not Iraqi. He will not hold official office in the new government.

[Claymore]

Nah, he's not like that. I don't know if you were just going for the cheap'n'easy joke, or you really think this might happen. It won't happen.


See post #19

[Revolt]

I'm really having my doubts about the Iraqis. I see scant evidence that they will organize effective military and police forces. And to top it off, what use is Allawi if he can't even properly fix an election?

More election results, more Sistani:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A63293-2005Feb4.html

In the latest partial returns from the national elections, the United Iraqi Alliance, a slate endorsed by Iraq's leading Shiite Muslim cleric, was running far ahead of its closest competitor, the Iraqi List headed by interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite.
With 3.3 million votes counted so far -- from mainly Shiite provinces -- the alliance had picked up 2.2 million, or 67 percent, followed by Allawi's list with nearly 580,000, or 17.5 percent, the Independent Electoral Commission announced Friday.

Commission officials said the tally so far comes from 10 of Iraq's 18 provinces and represents 35 percent of the nation's more than 5,000 voting centers. But no returns have yet been released from the largely Sunni Muslim provinces north and west of Baghdad, or from three Kurdish-dominated provinces in northern Iraq, officials said.

Election officials said they expect the final results to show a higher-than-expected turnout among the nation's 14 million eligible voters, although Sunni Arabs are believed to have voted in smaller numbers than the Shiites or Kurds.

[verybdog]

U.S. 'in for a shock'
In early election results, Shiite cleric's alliance trouncing Washington's favorite (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/02/04/MNGSMB5MDT1.DTL)

[Revolt]

Interesting note since there were 100+ parties on the ballot:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/04/international/middleeast/04cnd-iraq.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5094&en=3f6353366b5601ff&hp&ex=1107579600&partner=homepage

Only one other party took more than 1 percent of the first votes counted in Baghdad and the southern provinces, and that was another group with Shiite religious ties.

The group, the National Independent Elites and Cadres, which has strong links to Moktada al-Sadr, the young cleric who twice last year led uprisings against American forces, had 1.5 percent of the votes counted so far. In Baghdad, where the Sadr City neighborhood is Mr. Sadr's main bastion, the group took nearly 2 percent.

Other groups that had hoped to make a significant showing did not make much impact. A secular group known as the Independent Democratic Party, led by Mr. Pachachi, took less than three-tenths of 1 percent of the early vote.

[Revolt]

U.S. 'in for a shock'
In early election results, Shiite cleric's alliance trouncing Washington's favorite (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/02/04/MNGSMB5MDT1.DTL)

Interesting article - talks about the "Sistani Tsunami."

So, if the election breaks down like this:

Sistani's mega-party - 55-60%
Kurds - 20-25%
Allawi - 10-15%
Other Parties, including Sunnis 1-10%

How do they get to 75%. My guess is Allawi gets cut out and we're looking at a combination of a pro-Iranian theocracy in the southern part of the country and a loosely-affiliated Kurdish government hanging in by a thread.

In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at:


The Kurds declaring an independent state and thu bringing in the Turks to immediately declare war on the new state
Southern Iraq engaging in an on-going insrgency/civil war between the Shia and Sunnis
The Sistani-led Shia majority drawing ever closer to Iran
The US being shown the back door, while BushCo declares victory

[Soccernova78]

U.S. 'in for a shock'
In early election results, Shiite cleric's alliance trouncing Washington's favorite (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/02/04/MNGSMB5MDT1.DTL)

Sharif Ali bin Hussein, head of the Constitutional Monarchy Party, likened the vote outcome to a "Sistani tsunami" that would shake the nation.

"Americans are in for a shock," he said, adding that one day they would realize, "We've got 150,000 troops here protecting a country that's extremely friendly to Iran, and training their troops."

Not good if this comes true

[BudWiser]

Wow-like I said this is absouletly comical/laughable if it wasn't true

The fingers w/ink photos the Republicans were glowing over could have been turned around to middle fingers pointed at the US w/their vote

It will never cease to amaze me how naive and stupid this administration is. To think that they could stick around and spread American-style freedom in the middle of Iraq without any kind of serious international support is...well...

Unbelievable...we end up training Iraqi troops, lose 1,500+ soldiers, Iraq implements a religious-based (w/secular officials) power that could be friendly to Iran, while all the time Iran works on creating nuclear material. And who can blame Iran when Bush openly and loudly declares Iran an enemy of the US?

I mean you couldn't TRY to do something this stupid. You'd have to be named George "W" Bush

[Soccernova78]

Unbelievable...we end up training Iraqi troops, lose 1,500+ soldiers, Iraq implements a religious-based (w/secular officials) power that could be friendly to Iran, while all the time Iran works on creating nuclear material.

Unfortunately we may have merely succeeded in changing Iraq from a full fledged member of Bush's "Axis Of Evil" into sort of a junior partner. I'm not exactly sure how this benefits us.

[BudWiser]

Unfortunately we may have merely succeeded in changing Iraq from a full fledged member of Bush's "Axis Of Evil" into sort of a junior partner. I'm not exactly sure how this benefits us.

It won't, especially if they end up w/nuclear material and more "terrorists" than ever before willing to use it

Saddam was used by the US to keep Iran in check

Of all the Presidents, perhaps only "W" could have all the cards and end up folding

[Mr. Bee]

If we dont like who comes to power we could just accuse them of something vague and arrest them or kill them and all of their followers.

Worked the first time around

[Claymore]

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/pressingissues_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000788083

This is just sickening. BushCo. screams "8 million voters", mainstream media goes "duh, OK". Meanwhile....

[Bob Morocco]

The title should be 57%, not quite.

[verybdog]

If we dont like who comes to power we could just accuse them of something vague and arrest them or kill them and all of their followers.

Worked the first time around


Actually it works every time

[obie]

Threads on turnout merged.

[Revolt]

I have an idea of what ot expect, but I'm looking forward the BushCo spin on this.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/06/international/middleeast/06shiites.html?hp&ex=1107666000&en=e74b8fb2cb127d24&ei=5094&partner=homepage

With religious Shiite parties poised to take power in the new constitutional assembly, leading Shiite clerics are pushing for Islam to be enshrined in the new constitution.
Exactly how Islamic to make the document is the subject of debate.

At the very least, the clerics say, the constitution should ensure that legal measures overseeing personal matters like marriage, divorce and family inheritance fall under Shariah, or Koranic law. For example, daughters would receive half the inheritances of sons under that law.

On other issues, opinion varies, with the more conservative leaders insisting that Shariah be the foundation for all legislation.

Such a constitution would be a sharp departure from the transitional law that the Americans enacted before appointing the interim Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. American officials pressed Iraqi politicians drafting that law in early 2004 to guarantee equal rights for women and minorities. The Americans also persuaded the authors to designate Islam as just "a source" of legislation.

That irked senior Shiite clerics here, who, confident they now have a popular mandate from the elections, are advocating for Islam to be recognized as the underpinning of the government. They also insist that the Americans stay away from the writing of the new constitution.

The clerics' demands underscore the biggest question surrounding the new government: How Islamic will it be?

[BudWiser]

http://static2.podcatch.com/blogs/gems/snedit/vietnamVote.pdf#search='1967%20Vietnam%20elections'

[Revolt]

From today's NYT:

The electoral commission also said that for the first time, fines had been levied against political parties for violating election rules. Allegations of widespread voting improprieties have dogged the commission in the days after the election, and officials have acknowledged that they have already received more than 200 claims of irregularities at voting stations both inside and outside Iraq.

The issue is charged because by law, all formal complaints must be resolved before a new government can be seated. By issuing fines of 2 million dinars, or about $1,300, to seven major political parties including the Shiite party that is leading in the national vote, the commission is conceding for the first time that some of the claims have merit.

The seven parties were fined for failing to abide by an embargo on campaigning for the 48 hours before a vote. "There are a number of political parties that continued with their campaign after the beginning of the gag period," said Adel al-Lami, a member of the commission.

[Barbara]

That irked senior Shiite clerics here, who, confident they now have a popular mandate from the elections, are advocating for Islam to be recognized as the underpinning of the government. They also insist that the Americans stay away from the writing of the new constitution.

The clerics' demands underscore the biggest question surrounding the new government: How Islamic will it be?

Ask me how proud I am to be a member of the country that "liberated" Iraqi women.