The 6 and 9 guide to WCQ

[Eliezar]

Targets
6 away, 9 home = top 3
4 away, 7 home = 4th

Mexico 3(15)/6 away; 0(15)/9 home
US 3(15)/6 away; 0(15)/9 home
Guat 1(13)/6 away; 0(15)/9 home
Pamana 0(15)/6 away; 1(13)/9 home
CR 0(15)/6 away; 0(12)/9 home
T&T 0(15)/6 away; 0(12)/9 home

Simply put, the golden target for qualifying is 9 points at home and 6 on the road. If you get more than that you are going to be top 3 and if you get less than that you are going to end up outside the top 3 more likely than not. Rather than going back over the past hexes or discussing why 9 and 6 is better than 12 and 3, let's just start tracking the teams based on this. This will give a better idea of where the points stand than just a point total because home and away matches won't be equal until after rounds 6 and 8, but opponents won't be equal until after match 10.

[Aluxito]

Very interesting...

We should see what happens at the end. But I agree 15 points should get any team to the world cup.

[Green Tabasco]

Good Job Eliezar. 12-13 points puts you in 4th. 14-16 guarantees 3rd. Mex and the Yanks are in. The real BATTLE IS THE REST. As a perpetual underdog supporter, I'm rooting for Panama and Trinidad for the last two spots. Hopefully at least one makes it to the BIG SHOW.

Saludos.

[ZeekLTK]

Well, that equation works for everyone except Mexico. They don't need to win a road game (even though they already have) since Azteca pretty much assures them of 15 points no matter what. :/

I'm hoping USA and Guatemala are the other 2 to auto qualify and then either Panama or T&T beat the Asian side in the 4th place playoff.

[um_chili]

Here's a variation. It is premised on the idea that in WCQ, your goal is to win all your home games and tie all your road games. (Of course, any team that did this would be almost guaranteed to qualify, and you can screw up a few times and still get through to the next round, but certainly we can all agree that if you are consistently winning at home, losing on the road, you're good.)

Thus wins and losses are measured against this ideal, so that if you win at home or tie on the road you're even (0 points), if you win on the road you're up two points, if you lose on the road you're down one point, if you tie at home you're down two points, and if you lose at home you're down three points.

Here's how it makes the hex look now:

MEX.....+2
USA.....+2
GUA.....0
PAN.....-2
CRC.....-3
T&T.....-3

I like this approach because it tells you more about how teams are doing than raw point totals. For example, PAN and GUA are tied on one point now but in real terms GUA is ahead because they stole the road points.

[Eliezar]

Well, that equation works for everyone except Mexico. They don't need to win a road game (even though they already have) since Azteca pretty much assures them of 15 points no matter what. :/

I'm hoping USA and Guatemala are the other 2 to auto qualify and then either Panama or T&T beat the Asian side in the 4th place playoff.

Well 5 wins really are not as good as say going 3-1-1 at home at bringing in 5 ties on the road

3-1-6 is 15 points, but your opponents only gained 9 points off you
4-3-3 is 15 points, but your opponents took 12 points off you
5-5-0 is 15 points, but your opponents took 15 points off you

However, I like Chili's example of how to rate games home vs away. You want 1 point away or 3 at home. At best in his system you finish with 10 points at at worst -20. Pretty interesting system really, but it also just illustrates a level playing field. I like using the 9 at home and 6 on the road line to illustrate the window you have left to be able to get the necessary points.

[MoRado]

...
MEX.....+2
USA.....+2
GUA.....0
PAN.....-2
CRC.....-3
T&T.....-3

I like this approach because it tells you more about how teams are doing than raw point totals. For example, PAN and GUA are tied on one point now but in real terms GUA is ahead because they stole the road points.

I like this.....we should keep track of it

[Aluxito]

I like this.....we should keep track of it


Can you pin it?

[SJJ]

(P)remised on the idea that in WCQ, your goal is to win all your home games and tie all your road games.... Thus wins and losses are measured against this ideal, so that if you win at home or tie on the road you're even (0 points), if you win on the road you're up two points, if you lose on the road you're down one point, if you tie at home you're down two points, and if you lose at home you're down three points.
...
MEX +2 ; USA +2 ; GUA 0 ; PAN -2 ; CRC -3 ; T&T -3

The original poster talked about not comparing stats to past hex's, but if we did...

2002: home teams went 14-10-6 (w-l-t) for 48 points for, 36 points against
1998: 15-2-13, 58-19
1994 (final round had four teams): 8-3-1, 25-10

So in 72 games, the home team by record was (37-15-20); by points were (131-65) (nearly perfectly a 2-to-1 margin). Average by points was (1.819 to 0.903), but close enough to (2 to 1).

The point is to finish in the top three, i.e. the average of the six teams. So you can apply these averages to um_chili's formula (stat geek time!):

Home: win +1.181 ; loss -1.819 ; tie -0.819
Road: win +2.097 ; loss -0.903 ; tie +0.097

(Note: apply these averages to the composite records, both the home and road teams end up with a net of zero using the un-rounded numbers: self-check.)

An easier way to calcuate this is to take your current regular points by the 3-1-0 method, subtract 1.819 for each home game played (no matter the result), and subtract 0.903 for each road game. [reasoning: say you're at home: if you lose you've lost all 1.819 to the average; if you tie, you get a point, so you've only lost 0.819 ; if you win, you get 3 points so you've beaten the odds by 1.181]

So the hex would stand at:
MEX +2.097; USA +2.097 ; GUA +0.097 ; PAN -0.819 ; CRC -1.819 ; T&T -1.819

But even I don't want to calcuate that every game. Let's round each value to:
Home: win +1 ; loss -2 ; tie -1
Road: win +2 ; loss -1 ; tie 0

So the standings are:
MEX +2; USA +2 ; GUA 0 ; PAN -1 ; CRC -2 ; T&T -2

Thus it's easier to guage your true standings against the average value of zero, instead of um_chili's numbers, where the average is some negative number. (In fact, over 72 games, the home teams wind up -85, the road teams +8; net of -77, average of -1.07 for 72 games; or -10.7 for ten games)

(For completeness, using my rounded numbers, home teams end up -13; road teams -7; net of -20; average -0.2777 for 72 games; or -2.78 for ten games, so you see how the round-off error accumlates to nearly three points; but it is 3.85 times closer to true zero than um_chili.)

(end of stat geek time)

[Eliezar]

Targets
6 away, 9 home = top 3
4 away, 7 home = 4th

Mexico 3(15)/6 away; 0(15)/9 home
US 3(15)/6 away; 0(15)/9 home
Guat 1(13)/6 away; 3(15)/9 home
Panama 0(12)/6 away; 1(13)/9 home
CR 0(15)/6 away; 3(12)/9 home
T&T 0(12)/6 away; 0(12)/9 home

or

But even I don't want to calcuate that every game. Let's round each value to:
Home: win +1 ; loss -2 ; tie -1
Road: win +2 ; loss -1 ; tie 0

SJJ would have

Mexico +2
US +2
Guat +1
CR -1
Pan -1
T&T -3

[Sachin]

Sorry.. this thread doesn't make sense because of what happened last time. With T&T basically becoming the group's punching bag, the number of points needed to secure qualificatin goes up.

If either Panama or Guatemala goes on a 3-4 game winless streak, the Hex is effectively over (assuming T&T continues to suck hard, of course). The only battle will be for who gets to go to Asia in November.

Sachin

[Eliezar]

Sorry.. this thread doesn't make sense because of what happened last time. With T&T basically becoming the group's punching bag, the number of points needed to secure qualificatin goes up.

If either Panama or Guatemala goes on a 3-4 game winless streak, the Hex is effectively over (assuming T&T continues to suck hard, of course). The only battle will be for who gets to go to Asia in November.

Sachin

You mean because last time the 4th place team ended up with 14 points while T&T ended up with 5 points?

or did you mean because the time before Costa Rica finished 4th with 12 points while Canada ended up with 6 points?

Its pretty much the way it works. 15 points is the goal for qualification. If T&T manages to lose all their games getting over 15 points will almost certainly qualify you.

[SJJ]

For the record, here are the "standings" using the computed numbers based on the composite 72-game (from the last 3 year's results; the original post is in this thread), after two matchdays:

Listed by team, points by the 3-1-0 system, home games played, road games played, net points:

Team, Points, Home, Road, Net
Mexico, 6, 1, 1, 3.28
Guatemala, 4, 1, 1, 1.28
USA, 3, 0, 2, 1.19
Costa Rica, 3, 2, 0, -0.64
Panama, 1, 1, 1, -1.72
Trinidad and Tobago, 0, 1, 1, -2.72

Interesting in that this system, GUAT is just slightly ahead of the USA by percentage points. This is based more becuase the USA has played two road games to Guat's one, while getting one fewer point in the standings.

Now, actually, over time, standings based on the "net" points will end up close to the actual standings, because Concacaf schedules the two-games-in-a-week where every team will play one road and one home game.

In these current standings, the only real thing of note is that the USA did play two road games (but get a home match tonight), and Costa Rica played two home games (but is on the road tonight). That more than explains the 1.83 difference between the two. (But after matchday five [August 17], this thread become irrelevant because each team will only play "double-headers" with two games in one week, one home and one road.)

P.S. Using the numbers of 1.8194 per home game and 0.9028 per road game, playing five home'rs and five road'ies will result in 13.6111 as the theoretical "zero line" that should get you third place. [Thanks, Microsoft Excel.]

[SJJ]

Sorry.. this thread doesn't make sense because of what happened last time. With T&T basically becoming the group's punching bag, the number of points needed to secure qualificatin goes up.

If either Panama or Guatemala goes on a 3-4 game winless streak, the Hex is effectively over (assuming T&T continues to suck hard, of course). The only battle will be for who gets to go to Asia in November.

Sachin

If I ever had the time, I was going to dive into these numbers a bit more, creating a home/road expectation if you were playing a team in the top half, second half, (or top quarter, second quarter, etc.). This would have a bit more meaning for say, a 20-team league, where if the season were ending, you could calculate a point-expectation based on if your last games were against top teams, middle teams, or bottom teams.

[EvanJ]

(But after matchday five [August 17], this thread become irrelevant because each team will only play "double-headers" with two games in one week, one home and one road.)

August 17 is Matchday 6.

[Eliezar]

SJJ rounded now has these results

Mexico +3 (7)
US +2 (6)
Guat +1 (4)
CR -1 (4)
Pan -3 (2)
T&T -4 (1)

I think this is going to be an interesting race for third. Costa Rica has 1 road draw, Guatemala has a road draw and Panama got a point off Mexico at home (which is better than CR did).

The next match date is interesting because it gives Costa Rica and Guatemala both a chance to pick up a point vs each other in that Guatemala now tries to do better than CR did hosting Mexico and Costa Rica tries to do better than Guatemala did in visiting the US. Also the match date gives Panama a chance to get a road point in T&T that will virtually eliminate T&T.

The reality is any points gained by Guatemala, CR, or Panama will be huge for those countries.

[SJJ]

SJJ rounded now has these results

Mexico +3 (7)
US +2 (6)
Guat +1 (4)
CR -1 (4)
Pan -3 (2)
T&T -4 (1)

Here are the theoretical numbers after matchday 3 (current points in 3-1-0 system, home games played, road games played, net points):

Team, Pts, Home, Road, Net
Mexico, 7, 1, 2, 3.38
USA, 6, 1, 2, 2.38
Guatemala, 4, 1, 2, 0.38
Costa Rica, 4, 2, 1, -0.54
Panama, 2, 2, 1, -2.54
Trinidad and Tobago, 1, 2, 1, -3.54

Interesting that the teams are starting to fall into a perfectly symmetrical layout, with two teams at +-3.4, two at +-2.4, and two at +-0.4

The race for third has a difference of 0.92; verrrry close, with Guat the slight favorite having played one home game to CR's two. I didn't really like my rounded numbers, as in this case, it doubles the difference between the teams. (Oh, by the way, did you notice that the three teams with two home games played, are the three cellar-dwellars?)

Suffice it to say, Panama and T-T could well be eliminated early. Waiting for the next two matchdates.... then we would have gone through a round-robin once.

[EvanJ]

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/050401/1/3ej6.html is an article about CONCACAF WCQ called "No place like home in the New World." So far the home teams have four wins, three draws, and two losses for 15 points and the road teams have 9 points so teams have done better at home than on the road. All six countries average more points per game at home than on the road:
Mexico: 3 points from one home game and 4 points from two road games
Average of 3 points per home game (PPHG) and 2 points per road game (PPRG)
United States: 3 points from one home game and 3 points from two road games
Average of 3 PPHG and 1.5 PPRG
Guatemala: 3 points from one home game and 1 point from two road games
Average of 3 PPHG and 0.5 PPRG
Costa Rica: 3 points from two home games and 1 point from one road game
Average of 1.5 PPHG and 1 PPRG
Panama: 2 points from two home games and 0 points from one road game
Average of 1 PPHG and 0 PPRG
Trinidad and Tobago: 1 point from two home games and 0 points from one road game
Average of 0.5 PPHG and 0 PPRG
Also the two games decided by more than one goal (United States 2:0 Guatemala and Guatemala 5:1 Trinidad and Tobago) were both won by the home team.

[SJJ]

Standings after matchday 4.

Remember, take the points gained by the 3-1-0 system, substract 1.8194 for each home game (no matter the result) and substract 0.9028 for each road game. Given are the current points, home games played, road games playes, and the +/- rating:

TEAM, PTS, HOME, ROAD, NET
Mexico, 10, 1, 3, 5.47
USA, 9, 2, 2, 3.56
Guatemala, 4, 2, 2, -1.44
Costa Rica, 4, 2, 2, -1.44
Trinidad and Tobago, 4, 3, 1, -2.36
Panama, 2, 2, 2, -3.44

Mexico has played only one game at home, while T-T has played three. Thus T-T are rated below GUA and CR in the net standings (amongst the teams tied at 4 points).

Home teams are now 6-3-3 (w-l-t) for 21 points to the road team's 12. This gives a ratio of 1.7500:1. After matchday 3, the ratio was 1.5000:1. Thus it's inching closer to my calculated 2.0154:1 (using the final draws of the last three WCQ's).

The GUA-CR game this week is big in the standings.

Hmmmm...a Panama win over USA and the other two matches drawn, will leave a four-way tie for third place.

[Eliezar]

The Gua vs CR game is massive. I still think 3rd place is going to come down to their rematch at Guatemala in week 10.

If Gua and CR tie then that is going to leave the bottom 4 teams within 3 points of each other after 1 round. That is pretty impressive. It is possible that we could go into week 10 without anybody eliminated.

This may not be an interesting hex for Mexico or the US, but this might be the first time there isn't a super disaster team.