Next 7 games vital

[Rocket]

With Everton's and Liverpool's schedules looking similarly difficult at the end of the season, it's looking like our next 7 games will be key in determing which team earns a coveted spot in next year's Champion's League.

Here's how the schedules work out:

.................Everton....................Liverpool
Date..........Opponent..................Opponent

1/22...........Charlton (H)..............Southampton (A)
2/2.............Norwich (H)..............Charlton (A)
2/6.............Southampton (A).......Fulham (H)
2/12...........Chelsea (H)...............Birmingham (A)
2/26...........Aston Villa (A)...........Blackburn (H)
3/5.............Blackburn (H)............Newcastle (A)
3/19...........Liverpool (A)..............Everton (H)

Even though Everton holds a 7 point edge over Liverpool in the standings right now, we could be looking at trouble as a quick look at Liverpool's schedule shows they'll be favored in all 7 upcoming games.

Since I think most of us would agree that it'll be tough to take points vs. Chelsea or at Anfield, it'll be key for us to win our matches vs Charlton, Norwich, Southampton, Villa and Blackburn.

Tough, yes. But impossible, certainly not! :)

[sarabella]

Ugh, they've got an easier schedule. Not much, but still easier. They could very well win all of those, and we'll certainly lose to Chelsea. Wouldn't it be nice to beat the Shite at Anfield? I'm probably going to be there.

[kevbrunton]

First of all, the two biggest keys between these two is not who they play, but their own form. Everton has been on a tear the first half of the season. Now how do they do without Graveson and can they stay injury free within their key players.

Liverpool has been hit hard by injuries. Do they get some key guys back or continue to have guys coming and going.

If you assume that both teams continue to play largely like they have been playing, then...


In my mind, you can break the schedule down to games against "blocks" of teams. The blocks are:

A) The top 5 - Chelsea, Arse, ManU, Everton & Liverpool
B) The next 6 - teams that have been pretty strong - Boro, Charlton, Tottenham, Man City, Aston Villa & Bolton
C) The next 5 - teams that have been up and down - Newcastle, Portsmouth, Birmingham, Fulham & Blackburn
D) The bottom 4 - Crystal Palace, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom

If you look at the schedule in terms of these groups, you have this remaining...


Next 7 .. Everton .. Liverpool
.......... H . A .... H . A
A ........ 1 . 1 .... 1 . 0
B ........ 1 . 1 .... 0 . 1
C ........ 1 . 0 .... 2 . 2
D ........ 1 . 1 .... 0 . 1

Final 8 . Everton .. Liverpool
.......... H . A .... H . A
A ........ 1 . 1 .... 0 . 1
B ........ 0 . 1 .... 4 . 1
C ........ 1 . 2 .... 0 . 1
D ........ 1 . 1 .... 0 . 1

Obviously, the form of these teams can change dramatically over the next few months - injuries, new signings from this month making an impact, etc. - but it seems that this is a decent grouping of teams.

Over these next 7 games, Everton definitely has a tougher schedule. 4 of 7 games are in the top half of the table whereas only 2 for Liverpool are.

Over the final 8, it switches with Liverpool playing 6 of their final 8 against teams in the top half and their lower half games are on the road. But the key is that the makeup of the "groups" could change by the time you get to those final 8 based upon current form.

As it stands now, it seems that if Everton can get through these next 7 games still even or within a point or two of Liverpool, then they may be able to stay ahead or pull back ahead coming down the stretch.

[Rocket]

Another possible factor is Liverpool's run in this year's Champion's League.

Hopefully, they'll concentrate so much on doing well in the CL that they'll play flat in some of their EPL matches.

Liverpool:

2/22: Host Bayer Leverkusen
2/26: Host Blackburn

4/2: Host Bolton
4/5 or 4/6: CL Quarterfinals, 1st leg
4/9: At Man City
4/12 or 4/13: CL Quarterfinals, 2nd leg
4/16: Host Tottenham

[Scouse]

.................Everton....................Liverpool
Date..........Opponent..................Opponent

1/22...........Charlton (H)..............Southampton (A)
2/2.............Norwich (H)..............Charlton (A)
2/6.............Southampton (A).......Fulham (H)
2/12...........Chelsea (H)...............Birmingham (A)
2/26...........Aston Villa (A)...........Blackburn (H)
3/5.............Blackburn (H)............Newcastle (A)
3/19...........Liverpool (A)..............Everton (H)

...a quick look at Liverpool's schedule shows they'll be favored in all 7 upcoming games.i don't 'favour' them against Charlton, Birmingham or Newcastle. their away form has been pretty ropey.

as for the derby..they might start slight favourites, but anything can, and probably will, happen in that one.

i'm optimistic we'll do enough to not have to rely on that shower of shite anyway.

[Dave_M]

Ugh, they've got an easier schedule. Not much, but still easier. They could very well win all of those, and we'll certainly lose to Chelsea. Wouldn't it be nice to beat the Shite at Anfield? I'm probably going to be there.

Well you have to figure Chelsea is a loss you both have to play Blackburn and Charlton, and I would expect Everton and Liverpool to match each other point for point....so I reckon that gives you (hypothetically) 4 points edge over 3 fixtures, which includes a game against Championship Norwich, before you face liverpool

[Scouse]

my points predictions up to the derby

.................Everton....................Liverpool
Date..........Opponent..................Opponent

1/22...........Charlton (H) 3..............Southampton (A) 1
2/2.............Norwich (H) 3..............Charlton (A) 0
2/6.............Southampton (A) 0.......Fulham (H) 3
2/12...........Chelsea (H) 0...............Birmingham (A) 1
2/26...........Aston Villa (A) 1...........Blackburn (H) 3
3/5.............Blackburn (H) 3............Newcastle (A) 0

Everton - 10 points
RS - 8 points

that'd leave us 9 points clear with 9 to play

[Rocket]

my points predictions up to the derby

.................Everton....................Liverpool
Date..........Opponent..................Opponent

1/22...........Charlton (H) 3..............Southampton (A) 1
2/2.............Norwich (H) 3..............Charlton (A) 0
2/6.............Southampton (A) 0.......Fulham (H) 3
2/12...........Chelsea (H) 0...............Birmingham (A) 1
2/26...........Aston Villa (A) 1...........Blackburn (H) 3
3/5.............Blackburn (H) 3............Newcastle (A) 0

Everton - 10 points
RS - 8 points

that'd leave us 9 points clear with 9 to play

That seems like a reasonable prediction. The one thing I'd point out is that Liverpool's away form has improved in the last few months:

Liverpool's last 4 road games:

1/3 at Norwich 2-1 win
12/26 at West Brom 5-0 win
12/11 at Everton 0-1 loss
12/4 at Villa 1-1 tie

[toffeman]

That seems like a reasonable prediction. The one thing I'd point out is that Liverpool's away form has improved in the last few months:

Liverpool's last 4 road games:

1/3 at Norwich 2-1 win
12/26 at West Brom 5-0 win
12/11 at Everton 0-1 loss
12/4 at Villa 1-1 tie

With us losing against Charlton and the Sh******* losing against ( WHO??? Southampton hahhahahahahah!!!!!! :p ) I think we can all throw the stats out the window and just pick lots over the next few crazy games. We're still hard to score against and if we can get Reid and Beattie starts putting away a few, then screw the form book. As in NBA NFL Defence is the core of winning!!!

[PE230]

The form book has well and truley been thrown out of the window this year. No one would have ever expected us to be were we are now we're usually 4th from bottom!!

[kevbrunton]

With us losing against Charlton and the Sh******* losing against ( WHO??? Southampton hahhahahahahah!!!!!! :p ) I think we can all throw the stats out the window and just pick lots over the next few crazy games. We're still hard to score against and if we can get Reid and Beattie starts putting away a few, then screw the form book. As in NBA NFL Defence is the core of winning!!!
IMO, this just proves my first assertion that the key will be the form of Everton & Liverpool, not who they play.

Gerrard was practically non-existent against Southampton and they claimed he was struggling with a groin pull. I don't know what the issue was with Everton against Charlton, but like I said, they are going to have to prove that they can maintain this form without Graveson.

[PE230]

We will bounce back mate it was just a blip!!!

[Nicodemus145]

hey kids, i need help from people who know stuff.

I've got Osman, Carsley, and Stubbs on my fantasy teams. they're ranked high in the list, but it's mainly due to shutouts. 4 points for a midfielder with a clean sheet and 6 points for a defender.

is graveson's departure going to do alot of damage to everton's defense? i didnt get to see him play but once. but these players dont score much, and without alot of clean sheets, they're not worth much. should i dump them???

(didnt think it was worth a new thread, and this one seemed most relevant.)

[sarabella]

Based on last week's game (despite the loss), I think Carsley's game has actually improved. He seemed to take over Grav's role in midfield and given a few more weeks to get used to the change, I think he'll do nicely. I don't see little Ossie falling apart either. As for Stubbs, I think all four of them back there play much better when Martyn is in goal. They have the confidence to do what they need to do. Hopefully he should just be out another week or two.

[Dave_M]

Carsley,

Last I heard he was the 11th best something or other in the league...probably goals scored... id keep him, hes probably not costing you much. Hard to see who you would replace him with thats better at the same price... im guessing abour 2.5 3mil if its the telegraph league

[Nicodemus145]

THANKS GUYS!
i'll definately hang onto carsley now. i'm droppin Stubbs for Gallas in one league, a great deal. Osman is the only one i'm pondering selling in the other league, but the only ones "better" than him i can afford are Solano, Cahil, Carsley, Emerton (BR), routledge (CP) and Murphy (CA). Cahil is VALUED more than carsley but has fewer points. think ill hang onto osman tho and see what happens.

thanks again kids.

[Rocket]

This weekend:

Everton visits Southampton
Liverpool hosts Fulham

My forecast:

Everton draw
Liverpool win

Toffees lead narrowed to 5 pts


(For the optimists out there, Arsenal is visiting Aston Villa on Saturday and could face a tough match)

[sarabella]

I think we've got a good chance to beat Southampton, especially with Martyn back. Just my opinion though.

[Scouse]

i have a bad feeling about the southampton game...i'll be happy to get anything out of it...mind you, it could be where beattie cracks in a couple :)

i think liverpool will win.

[kerpow]

I'm usually more cautious, but on this occaision I'll put my money on us taking all 3pts. Sadly Liverpool are likely to win as well.

Perhaps Arsenal will drop more points now that their title ambitions are over.