Conceding goals

[fedwood]

Well i was digging through some stats because i cant even remeber the amount of times Arsenal give a goal away in last 5 or so minutes

i noticed that an overwhelming majority of goals we (can i see we..coz i dont play for them..i only watch them) let in come either 85-90 mins or 45-60 mins

seems as though they are letting in goals whenevr the just get back from a rest or are already thinking about one

these times account for more than half of their conceded

[nicephoras]

I have a feeling these stats would be fairly similar for all teams. Getting scored on in the dying moments is only logical, as that's when the opposition is likely to be throwing forward everything but the kitchen sink to level the score.

[Przybylinski]

Part of it is that I think in the last minutes of the game they stop the offensive push and fall back. They play best when they continue to push forward offensively. This keeps the other team from getting forward as we seem to dominate the mid. I really don't know why it seems to happen, it's pretty frustrating.

[Przybylinski]

I have a feeling these stats would be fairly similar for all teams. Getting scored on in the dying moments is only logical, as that's when the opposition is likely to be throwing forward everything but the kitchen sink to level the score.

That should be when the team who's winning the game sticks another one in the back of the net, but it seems to go the other way.

[nicephoras]

That should be when the team who's winning the game sticks another one in the back of the net, but it seems to go the other way.

It often happens that way too. However, the team with the lead has understandably less urgency. A 3-1 win doesn't get you anymore points than a 2-1 win. In theory, it makes more sense to defend the lead with only a few minutes left than to try and score again.
THAT doesn't always work that way though. ;)

[Przybylinski]

It doesn't always work that way.

It would be interesting to see how often it happens. Bolton Last week and this week did it. Getting off the EPL the US did it against Jamaica and Panama in the WC Quals. Seems to be the desperation and drive that gets a team to get the last push goal.

[Neo¹]

It often happens that way too. However, the team with the lead has understandably less urgency. A 3-1 win doesn't get you anymore points than a 2-1 win. In theory, it makes more sense to defend the lead with only a few minutes left than to try and score again.
THAT doesn't always work that way though. ;)

That happened to Italy all EURO 2004.

Ive noticed that arsenal concede in the dying seconds, but lucklily for arsenal we manage to score a lot in the premiership, so most of the time those late goals dont really matter. (except for today and against Man U last season)

[nicephoras]

It doesn't always work that way.

It would be interesting to see how often it happens. Bolton Last week and this week did it. Getting off the EPL the US did it against Jamaica and Panama in the WC Quals. Seems to be the desperation and drive that gets a team to get the last push goal.

Considering the amount of 1 goal games we've won this year already, it can work. Remember our two games versus Stuttgart last year?
I think it may work less well for Arsenal because your wondeful offense masks defensive questions of certain players. When they can no longer rely on the creative players holding a lot of the ball, they can be found wanting. Specifically Lauren and Cole. Don't get me wrong - I think Cole is as good a LB as Bridge, but I still don't believe he's quite as good defensively as Bridge, although he is better going forward. Ashley's performances at Euro2004 have moved me to reconsider that view, but its hardly definitive proof. Kolo also has occasional slips of concentration that can be exploited.
Does this mean I'm saying Arsenal's defense is poor? No, of course not. Its excellent. However, it is greatly aided by having a wealth of possession players (and Vieira!) in front of it that shield the defense. For this reason, the Arsenal defense is also a lot less used to sustained sieges of the goal, and thus less adept at dealing with them. Thus, you give up more goals toward the end of games. Our defense, on the other hand, is more used to being put under pressure, and therefore is less likely to find itself overly concerned at an all out assault at the end of the game.
Just one theory.

That happened to Italy all EURO 2004.

Be careful with that line of thought. The reason for Italy's concession of goals was NOT their style of play, but their personnel. Catenaccio can work. Italy, however, no longer has the players to do it. The bulk of Italy's talent lies in offensive and creative players. Forcing Fiore, Pirlo and Totti to defend wastes their talent. Meanwhile, Italy's defense is not what it once was. Panucci is a Premiership failure who is a similar player to Salgado - he's good going forward, but is found lacking if he has to defend all game. Cannavaro has been in mediocre form for 3 years. And any team that includes Materazzi on it is CLEARLY short of defensive depth. Only Zambrotta and Nesta can be said to be truly world class defenders. And Italy also lacks a world class midfield destroyer - Gattuso is not that player. In short, Italy's failures are linked to the lack of defensive players good enough to defend all game.
Recall Japorea, for example. Almost all goals scored against Italy happened when Nesta was not on the field.

[fedwood]

i feel wenger should adopt a more defensive attitude like some managers do right at the end
it may not be pretty but its effective

he showed signs of it yesterday bringing on clichy in last minutes but am i right in thinking he was playing midfield?

[Cannon]

I have a feeling these stats would be fairly similar for all teams. Getting scored on in the dying moments is only logical, as that's when the opposition is likely to be throwing forward everything but the kitchen sink to level the score.

Yes, I remeber someone looked into this using match data (from MLS?).

It came up earlier this year when they were talking about that "#%#$% magic minute" or whatever it is called. They also confirmed that old belief that teams give up goals at a higher rate in the minutes right after scoring.

I'll have to look around and see if I can find that article.

[nicephoras]

They also confirmed that old belief that teams give up goals at a higher rate in the minutes right after scoring.


Especially if Hans-Jorg Butt is your keeper, and fails to run back to his goal after convering a penalty. :p