The Official Election Polls thread - Put all poll related material HERE! pt.2

[Dante]

Continue discussion here...

[superdave]

Dante, don't you want to unsticky the old thread??

[USAsoccer]

Just thought I'd ask for those suggesting that Bush polling under 50 percent was a "bad" thing...

What was the percentage of the vote that Clinton received?

[superdave]

Let me know if Nader is gonna get 19 or 9 percent.

Apparently you're not savvy enough to get the point, which is that historically, undecideds break against the incumbent, so that an incumbent polling ahead at, say, 46-43 is in some serious trouble.

Hey USA, didja get the pm I sent you?

[USAsoccer]

Let me know if Nader is gonna get 19 or 9 percent.

Apparently you're not savvy enough to get the point, which is that historically, undecideds break against the incumbent, so that an incumbent polling ahead at, say, 46-43 is in some serious trouble.

Hey USA, didja get the pm I sent you?

Keep trying to convince yourself that EVERYTHING is going to be Ok....

Yea, I got the PM, but it was soooo many days later, that the thread had gone off in a different (many different) directions, so it just didn't make any sense going back to it...

I have been too busy here in Tampa trying to dodge hurricanes....

[superdave]

Oh yeah, in other news...the Kerry campaign, for now, has decided not to contest North Carolina, despite the recent poll showing him only ?3? points behind Bush. Dumb move.

[Nogra Rover]

This poll has it all even at 46 among likely voters.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040913/feature_1.html

[superdave]

This poll has it all even at 46 among likely voters.

While I wish it weren't so, at this point, you've got to consider this poll an outlier.

[Benito]

Things seem to be looking pretty good for Bush.
---------
Then again Kerry managed to get 5 of about 2500 widows from 9/11 to support him. That should make a big difference.

Those forged papers that Kerry and his people put together about Bush on his service in the guard should really give him a landslide over Bush in Nov.

[obie]

Rasmussen's dailies (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm) have Bush up by 0.6% -- not 6%, 0.6%. The ten-day trend has been a shrinking from 4.4% to today's 0.6. Bush has totally solidifed his GOP base to a greater extent than Kerry has locked up Dems (86% of GOPers say they're voting Bush, but only 78% of Dems say they're voting Kerry), but indies are breaking for Kerry by 9-10 points in recent days.

I think all this proves is that, barring a major news event, turnout will be the #1 issue for this campaign.

[Nogra Rover]

Things seem to be looking pretty good for Bush.
---------
Then again Kerry managed to get 5 of about 2500 widows from 9/11 to support him. That should make a big difference.

Those forged papers that Kerry and his people put together about Bush on his service in the guard should really give him a landslide over Bush in Nov.

Terrific analysis! Wow! :rolleyes:

[Nogra Rover]

While I wish it weren't so, at this point, you've got to consider this poll an outlier.

Maybe. but as Obie notes above, the Rasmussen trends are heading in the same direction. Still, Bush remains consistently below 50 %.

[NateP]

While I wish it weren't so, at this point, you've got to consider this poll an outlier.

It may be, but Ruy Texiera had an interesting post yesterday about the faults in a lot of the recent polls. He corrected them for party ID and made a good case for using RV instead of LV's at this point in the election and came up with this:

9/3 - 9/5 Gallup (RV): Kerry +4
9-6 - 9/8 CBS (RV): Bush +5
9/6 - 9/8 WaPo (RV): Bush +1
9/7 - 9/8 Fox (LV): Bush +1
9/8 - 9/9 Zogby (LV): Bush +2
9/9 - 9/10 Newsweek (RV): Kerry +2
9/10 - 9/12 Rassmussen (LV) Bush +1

I don't know about the party ID for this IBD poll but being tied in the LV's and Kerry +2 in the RV's doesn't seem too out of line with the above numbers.

Ruy may be completely out to lunch about weighing for party ID and using RV's instead of LV's but the articles I've seen lately are at most evenly split.

[superdave]

Those forged papers that Kerry and his people put together about Bush on his service in the guard should really give him a landslide over Bush in Nov.
Do you have any evidence for this assertion? Mods, is this the kind of comment you want around here?

[-cman-]

Pollkatz's electoral vote count has Bush ahead for the first time since I can remember.
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/kerryEVproj.htm

[Ian McCracken]

Apparently you're not savvy enough to get the point, which is that historically, undecideds break against the incumbent, so that an incumbent polling ahead at, say, 46-43 is in some serious trouble.


Seeing that you're a student of history, the candidate ahead in the Gallup Poll on Labor Day has gone on to win something like 14 out of 17 times. Kerry is in serious trouble.

[Dan Loney]

Seeing that you're a student of history, the candidate ahead in the Gallup Poll on Labor Day has gone on to win something like 14 out of 17 times. Kerry is in serious trouble.Hell, the guy ahead in the poll the Wednesday after Election Day has only lost three or four times ever. That happened last time, too.

Students of history will also remember that no party ever held a convention that late, so this is the first year that a post-convention "bounce" would have been factored into a Labor Day poll.

As a Reep, you're seriously happy with how the Bush campaign has been going? Hey, how's Zell Miller been working out for you guys?

[argentine soccer fan]

Here are a couple of articles analizing the latest poll results:

This from AP:

'Bush Making Gains in Battleground States'

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040914/ap_on_el_pr/shifting_playing_field&cid=536&ncid=536

This from USNews and World Report:

'The Democrats Real Problem'

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usnews/20040913/ts_usnews/thedemocratsrealproblem&cid=926&ncid=1926

[Ian McCracken]

As a Reep, you're seriously happy with how the Bush campaign has been going? Hey, how's Zell Miller been working out for you guys?

I'm ecstatic with the way things are going. Ever since Zell Miller spoke, Bush has been ahead. The Democrats are hanging their hopes on Kitty Kelley and CBS' forged memos and Ted Kennedy. You be the judge.

[argentine soccer fan]

I'm ecstatic with the way things are going. Ever since Zell Miller spoke, Bush has been ahead. The Democrats are hanging their hopes on Kitty Kelley and CBS' forged memos and Ted Kennedy. You be the judge.

Don't forget the fact that the good senator was a hero in Vietnam. That ought to count for something.