Playoff scenario for United...

[Cweedchop]

It's down to one game folks.. Good thing we play solo on Thursday night, just so the tension can linger for two more days if we actually win on Thursday..

United must win on Thursday or else we are out..

Here are the following scenarios that will get us in if we win against Dallas:


1) Metros loss combined with a Chicago loss..


I do believe that is our only hope at this time due to our very poor head to head record with both NE and KC.. We are tied with Chicago at present but we trail big time on goal differential.. We would need to beat Dallas by at least 13 goals to make up the difference.... Ain't gonna happen..

If anyone else has a scenario, I'd like to see it but I do believe this is our only hope...

[eltico]

What if we win, Metros lose, KC loses, Chicago draws? All four have 35 points. Which two go forward?

[Cweedchop]

Originally posted by eltico
What if we win, Metros lose, KC loses, Chicago draws? All four have 35 points. Which two go forward?

At that point I believe it comes down to goal differential and we are miles behind anyone else..

[eltico]

Damn.

[Bison1997]

At this point, we need too much help.

If it just came down to DC needing to beat Dallas, who will be without two starters, I'd say, "Yes, we will beat them and march headlong into the playoffs."

But, when one needs as much help as we do (THREE different games need to go our way, only one involves us), one usually does not get it.

I am sincerely not trying to rain on anyone's parade here - don't get me wrong, I firmly believe that anything could happen should we actaully make the playoffs with the squad we have right now.

But I was honestly expecting for us to win and to be eliminated from playoff contention tonight. We live to fight another day and all that, but we've given up too many points over the season.

Those Chicago scoreless draws are painful to think about right now. As is the last KC game....

[Sachin]

Is head-to-head the first tiebreaker before GD?

I'm not sure about it and I'm too lazy to go look it up.

If it is head-to-head then we have a shot if we all end up on 35 points.

Sachin

[Knave]

According to HalaMadrid ...

TIEBREAKERS
1) Head-to-Head
2) Goal Differential
3) Total Goals
4) Rules #1-3 (Road Games)
5) Rules #1-3 (Home Games)
6) Fewest Disciplinary Points
7) Coin Toss

[shawn12011]

Here are the remaining scenario's, from the article on DC United.com earlier this week, that still apply. Thanks to Knave for the tables.

B]Team W L T Pts GF GA @
--------------------------------------------
Los Angeles 15 9 3 48 43 33 SJ
San Jose 14 10 3 45 45 34 LA
Colorado 13 11 3 42 42 47 KC
Dallas 11 9 7 40 40 40 DC
Columbus 11 11 5 38 43 41 CH
New England 11 14 2 35 46 49 NJ
MetroStars 11 14 2 35 41 44 NE
Kansas City 9 10 8 35 36 44 CO
--------------------------------------------
Chicago 10 13 4 34 41 37 CB
D.C. United 9 13 5 32 28 36 DA

Scenario B- United and New England get in:
Who would have thought about this one three weeks ago? In order for this to happen, the Crew must once again sweep Chicago, United must win out and New England would have to either tie or defeat Dallas and then beat the Metros.

Scenario F- The dreaded "Five-Way Breaker"- CHI, KC, United gets in:
Shoot me for figuring this one out, but it's possible. Let's say that Chicago get one point from Columbus, Kansas City loses their last two, and United and the Revs win out, meaning that the MetroStars, in turn, lose out. That leaves five teams all tied with 35 points, with three of them getting into the playoffs, with the third spot going to United! That's right, United would emerge as the 8th playoff seed thanks to their mark in the "head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head" match-up, with their potential 6-7-3 (.469) record narrowly edging out the MetroStars 6-7-1 mark (.464).-note this now would fall to a four way tiebreaker so not sure if united would winout the tiebreakers in a KC, Chicago, Metros, United fourway tie, since they would finish third in a five way tie but I wanted to keep this one in because it is still a little confusing.

So we are looking for New England to win in both. Then either a Chicago loss or Chicago tie and a Kansas City Loss. That seems to be it in a nutshell.

[Jimbo]

An article at MLS net says three way ties are broken by pts/game in head-to-head matchups vs. all-teams equal in points, as the above suggests.

At this point there could be a three way tie between Mets (if they lose to NE), DC (if they win against Dallas), and KC (if they lose against Colorado), and Chicago could also be added to the mix for a four way tie (if they tie Columbus).

With Mathis and Howard out and the Metros on the road, it looks more likely that NE won't be in the teams level at 35 points. DC has done a huge favor to NE by beating the Metros two straight and sending the Metros north to play without two key players. Now it's their turn to return the favor.

[shawn12011]

Here is next weeks schedule, key games in bold:

Thursday, September 19th
Dallas at D.C. United

Friday, September 20th
Kansas City at Colorado-Not as important to United but could be

Saturday, September 21st
Los Angeles at San Jose
MetroStars at New England

Sunday, September 22nd
Columbus at Chicago

[Jose L. Couso]

All the home teams will probably win (before 9/22).

Now if Chicago can choke under all the pressure on the last day of the season, DC United will be in!

[Footer Phooter]

By my count, if Chicago and KC lose, we get in over both since Chi will have less points, and we're even with KC head to head, but then beat them on total GD.

[Freestyle2000]

Originally posted by Footer Phooter
By my count, if Chicago and KC lose, we get in over both since Chi will have less points, and we're even with KC head to head, but then beat them on total GD.


???


We're 0-1-1 against Kansas City. Remember, Marco's PK was waived off.

RS

[Cweedchop]

Originally posted by Freestyle2000



???


We're 0-1-1 against Kansas City. Remember, Marco's PK was waived off.

RS

Actually, we are 1-2-1 with KC..

KC would win the tiebreaker..

[ursula]

I haven't yet seen what would happen of KC, DCU, Chicago and the metros are tied- the four way tiebreaker. (BTW, we can't have a five-way tie anymore as either metros and/or NE will get at least one point more than we can.)

[ursula]

Okay- here's a four-way tie scenerio with United, Fire, Wiz, and metros:

The tie breaker is head to head and here are the records then:

Chi- 5-3-2
DCU-5-4-3
Wiz-3-3-2
met-3-6-1 (maybe they should hire Steve Sampson as OZ's replacement).

So in this scenerio, Chicago and United get in in that order. This scenerio will happen if DC and NE win, Fire ties, and KC loses.

Now I'll check on a NE, United, Fire, and KC tie:

Wiz- 5-2-1
NE - 4-5-1
Chi-3-4-3
DCU-3-6-3

KC and NE get in, NE barely over the Fire. This scenerio happens if DC and metros win, Fire again ties and KC again loses.

These are to only two ways that four teams could tie at the end.

But what about three way ties with DC getting in?

A three-way tie between Chicago, metros and United (one gets in to the playoffs) could happen if DC wins, Chicago ties and metros lose. That leaves the teams:

Chi- 4-4-2
DCU-4-4-2
Met-2-6-0

Chicago gets in due to the second tie breaker- goal differential between the three teams:

Chi- 11-5
DCU-9-6
met- 7-15

If KC loses, United wins, and Chicago ties, they are in a three way tie with head to head records:

Wiz- 3-2-1
Chi- 2-2-2
DCU-2-3-3

KC gets the last spot.

Likewise if KC loses, United wins, Chicago wins or loses and metros lose there's a three way tie between KC, United and metros, that KC wins.

[MarioKempes]

Cweedchop is 100% correct.

We have 32 points. There are only 4 teams with 35 or less points:

Team GP W L T Pts GF GA
NE 27 11 14 2 35 46 49
MET 27 11 14 2 35 41 44
KC 27 9 10 8 35 36 44
CHI 27 10 13 4 34 41 37
D.C. United 27 9 13 5 32 28 36

The TIEBREAKERS are:
1) Head-to-Head
2) Goal Differential
3) Total Goals
4) Rules #1-3 (Road Games)
5) Rules #1-3 (Home Games)
6) Fewest Disciplinary Points
7) Coin Toss

We lose the tie-breaker against everyone but the MetroMutts. Therefore, we can only make the playoffs if:

1) DCU wins
2) MetroMutts lose
3) Chicago loses

I'd say #1 has a 50% chance, #2 has an 80% chance, and #3 has a 50% chance. Therefore, I'd put our odds at (.50 x .80 x .50) = 20% chance.

That's not a bet I would take. Crossing my fingers here....

[GlennAA11]

A few days ago I was saying we didn't deserve to be in the playoffs, but I thave changed my mind. We are no worse than the rest of these crappy teams battling it out for the last couple of spots. And we've shown we can beat SJ, altho if we end up 8th I guess chances are an LA series. And depending on who's healthy and not suspended I'd suggest we would have a 50-50 chance there as well.

I guess this is what happens when 8 out of 10 teams make the playoffs in a league that tries as hard as it can to achieve parity.

[Doug Dobey]

Whew! Skip's done his homework!

On another thread, Skip said one of the most telling things about all these scenarios:

If the Revs and the Scum tie next week, we're out. Period.

Now that's a scary scenario...

[Doug Dobey]

Originally posted by MarioKempes
I'd say #1 has a 50% chance, #2 has an 80% chance, and #3 has a 50% chance. Therefore, I'd put our odds at (.50 x .80 x .50) = 20% chance.

Mario:

I'm no statistician (and maybe it's just wishful thinking), but wouldn't 50% + 50% + 80% = a 65% chance that we advance?

Of course it's not that simple, I know. But a boy can dream, can't he?